CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,723
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Post by CatholicLeft on Nov 21, 2024 21:12:21 GMT
The Mayo News are running a "poll", otherwise known as a self-selecting survey, where they don't give Aontu as an option, even though Cllr Paul Lawless (elected at the LE) massively out-polled Labour and Sol-PBP at the last GE and II didn't exist in 2020, and the latter three are included. I suspect somebody is going to be getting a tongue-lashing. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Nov 21, 2024 21:18:14 GMT
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Post by greenhert on Nov 21, 2024 21:18:42 GMT
There are 682 candidatures for Dáil Éireann, a record. That includes one candidate contesting six constituencies (John O'Leary), and one candidate contesting three constituencies (Ben Gilroy). Louth has 25 candidates which is an all-time record. Amusingly this John O'Leary is doing what one Seán O'Leary did last time. Does anybody know anything about him, it's a very common name. (The less said about Ben Gilroy the better). Why has not Irish electoral law been updated yet to stop candidates running in more than one constituency simultaneously at general elections? Australia and the UK outlawed that years ago. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,723
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Post by CatholicLeft on Nov 21, 2024 21:26:26 GMT
They have quickly updated it after what I hear were a lot of complaints - seems as if they have changed the Labour button with an Aontu one. Now Labour supporters will complain. Just scrap it and start again - or, better still, drop this sort of nonsense survey. |
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Post by greenhert on Nov 21, 2024 21:44:47 GMT
Has anyone considered how significant the impact of Aontu and Independent Ireland will be on Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail/Fine Gael this election, especially in more rural constituencies far from Greater Dublin, even though overall they are polling ~4-5%?
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Post by No Offence Alan on Nov 21, 2024 21:50:36 GMT
Has anyone considered how significant the impact of Aontu and Independent Ireland will be on Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail/Fine Gael this election, especially in more rural constituencies far from Greater Dublin, even though overall they are polling ~4-5%? It is STV. If they win seats then obviously an effect. If not, then their 2nd preferences just go to where they would have gone anyway without their intervention. |
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Post by irish observer on Nov 22, 2024 0:24:28 GMT
Dublin Fingal-East (3) is the other part of the former Dublin Fingal constituency. More urban that Dublin Fingal-West the main centres of population are Swords, Malahide, Donabate, Portmarnock and newer communities such as Portrane. Kinsealy is also found in the constituency and Abbeville the former home of CJ Haughey was there though he represented a neighbouring constituency. I used work across the road from the estate and lived in Malahide myself for a time. It is a prosperous sea-side town on the Dublin-Belfast railway line. Crossing the Malahide estuary you have a lovely view of boats across the area and houses that overlook the strand, a view less dramatic is found in nearby Donabate. Malahide hosted the first first-class international cricket match between Ireland and England and is home of the O'Brien brothers who played for Ireland who are not related to Darragh O'Brien. Many Fingal people played cricket being asked to make up numbers as farmhands on big farms owned by the gentry in the area who passed the tradition on which remains in this area still though all sport is played here. I'm not sure if Lambay Island is part of this constituency or Dublin Fingal-West, I think there may be a couple of registered voters, a couple herds of deer and wallabies. How they vote remains a mystery to every Irish tallyman but I know people who do annual counts of them on a yearly basis!*
*The Bride of Malahide above is a very old irish melody a tribute to Maud Plunkett who was the Bride to a son of Lord Talbot. The Talbot's had their seat at Malahide Castle still found in Malahide. The Plunkett's an old Norman family would be ancestors of St Oliver Plunkett and Count Plunkett and his sons George and Jack Plunkett among others who had a variety of Louth-Meath-Dublin and Roscommon connections. The Talbots famously backed Lambet Simnel, one of the Pretenders, and lost out as a result.
Current TDs: Minister Darragh O'Brien (FF), Alan Farrell (FG) and Duncan Smith (Labour)
O'Brien and Farrell both have solid bases in the Malahide area and I expect them to retain their seats as a result. Duncan Smith is based in Swords and won out at the last election. I think the boundary helps him to retain his seat. The chances of the Greens making inroads are limited as Ian Carey lost his seat in June in Swords. Ann Graves, I understand did once manage Louise O'Reilly's constituency office in Swords but having lost her seat I'm not sure how well she will do. I favour Labour to hold the anti-government seat. While Cllr Joan Hopkins runs for the SD much of her vote base in the locals will follow Cian O'Callaghan into Dublin-Bay North with Howth. Cllr Dean Mulligan, a former ally of Clare Daly, is running for Independents4Change out of Swords. If anyone challenges Smith's base it will be he. Cllr Darren Jack Kelly who was elected in the Swords are in June as an Independent is also running here.
Prediction: 1FF, 1FG, 1Lab.
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Post by irish observer on Nov 22, 2024 0:28:36 GMT
They have quickly updated it after what I hear were a lot of complaints - seems as if they have changed the Labour button with an Aontu one. Now Labour supporters will complain. Just scrap it and start again - or, better still, drop this sort of nonsense survey. It seems the Mayo News never heard of sample selection bias either in statistics. I remember once raising that at an Economic Conference about another presenter's dataset and had they adjusted for it accordingly and by what form of analysis? |
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Post by irish observer on Nov 22, 2024 0:36:25 GMT
Amusingly this John O'Leary is doing what one Seán O'Leary did last time. Does anybody know anything about him, it's a very common name. (The less said about Ben Gilroy the better). Why has not Irish electoral law been updated yet to stop candidates running in more than one constituency simultaneously at general elections? Australia and the UK outlawed that years ago. The issue arises if you are elected for more than one seat. You can still run for more than one LEA in a Council election here and if you get elected in more than one then co-opt a replacement of your choice. This may sound bizarre but co-options are done like this to save ratepayers money in not holding by-elections in the case of a casual vacancy. Some Councils may have c.10-15 changes/40 personnel within 5 years be it death, resignation or other reasons. Like NI co-option occurs though a contest was forced in Ballymena several years ago by the DUP for a nationalist seat. It is an unwritten rule not to oppose a party or in the case of an Independent "their" choice of nominee for a seat. However, some have questioned should this be changed for LG elections in future as technically one could build a personal organisation if you had the capacity or where-withall to do so. For Dáil elections several single-issue candidates stand for the purpose of highlighting a single issue in multiple seats. However, if elected in more than one a by-election must occur, due to the Doherty Constitutional Challenge by a set date now in Dáil statute. |
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Post by irish observer on Nov 22, 2024 2:08:27 GMT
Dublin Bay-North (5) is a sprawling constituency containing a mix of demographics. As mentioned it overlooks Dublin Bay on the North Side of the Liffey containing Clontarf, Fairview, Marino, Beaumont, Artane, Coolock, Edenmore, Darndale, Donaghmede, Balgriffin, Raheny, Killester and Howth. Clongriffin and Belmayne are relatively new communities that have grown up along the DART line with access to Connolly Station. DART = Dublin Area Rapid Transport network. Howth, Balgriffin, Raheny etc are part of Fingal in the Howth-Malahide area and the rest of the constituency is represented by Artane-Whitehall, Clontarf and Donaghmede Electoral Divisions on Dublin City Council. Beaumont Hospital the main centre for neuroligical care in the state is located here as is Bull Island with its famous towers from the power station and Clontarf is the site of the famous Battle in 1014 where Brian Ború famously defeated the Vikings in the famous text "The War of the Irish and the Foreigner" only to be then stabbed in his tent after praying thanks for the victory by a retreating Brodir, one of the Rulers of the Isle of Man, who came to fight against his Irish Army. Brodir was later slaughtered for the trouble but Brian's loss proved problematic for the governance of the polity like Hwyel Da in Wales but an ancestor from Munster later did re-unite Ireland and even invade and seize the Isle of Man in an act of revenge for a number of years! A great story it could be a Netflix series yet. This constituency will be another Battle of Clontarf.
The music commemorates a more recent tragedy. On Valentine's Night 1981 48 young people from the constituency died in the Stardust disco throughout this area. A public inquiry is still demanded. You've recently had Grenfell Tower, more died there. Ireland's libel laws were once so strict that RTE were forced to change the word "chained" in the song lyrics despite protests from RTE staff and the song-writer, Christy Moore, having received correspondence from the owner of the Building a **@@$$$$££** This performance was the first time RTE played the song live in full on RTE in 2014. Censorship is not a good thing especially of a state broadcaster or a musician.
Second is the famous Marino Waltz featuring a live performance by the last surviving member of The Dubliners John Sheahan who wrote the song.
Current TDs: Denise Mitchell (SF), Cian O'Callaghan (SD), Seán Haughey (FF) and Richard Bruton (FG) are both retiring and Aodhán O Riordán (Lab) got elected as an MEP in June.
Cian O'Callaghan is now Deputy Leader of the SD. They are now the second-largest party on Dublin City Council since June. The party have seats across all areas of the seat also.
Denise Mitchell of SF romped home here last election and could have taken in a running-mate. Former Lord Mayor Michael MacDonncha is now running as a result. However I think the party will hold one seat rather than gain a second.
FG are running 2 candidates. Former Lord Mayor and poll-topper Naoise O'Muiri and Cllr Aoibhinn Tormey who I think is a daughter of former Cllr Dr Bill Tormey. I favour O Muirí based on his profile in Dublin City rather than Tormey in Fingal end but she is the running for a second seat given they polled well in June here and are the largest party in Dublin at Council level.
FF are running 2 candidates. Cllr Tom Brabazon from Donaghmede is a former Lord Mayor himself and has been a Councillor for Donaghmede since 2003. Cllr Deirdre Heney at the Clontarf end was first elected in 1999 and used work for Noel Ahern, brother of former Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern. She is the current Group Leader of the party on Dublin City Council. Personally I think FF are in the running for 1 seat only here however in her favour she started out representing Whitehall and then moved to Clontarf so has covered large parts of the area as a Councillor in her career.
I don't rate Labour's chances of holding their seat. Their candidate failed to win a Council seat in June and SD have kind of cannibalised the Labour vote here. Running for the Greens is David Healy from Howth. First elected in 1991 bar one defeat as a Councillor he has been ever present since on Fingal. Well-respected and knowledgeable he is a good candidate but again SD have kind of stolen a march on their vote base here.
There is an Independent seat here. Fintan O'Toole, a former Minister himself and also a part-time crooner, is backing Cllr Barry Heneghan from Clontarf who got elected in June with his support base. He is in serious contention for the Independent seat up against Cllr John Lyons formerly of PBP now Independent who represents Artane-Whitehall.
Prediction: ISD, 1SF, 1FF, 1FG, 1IND.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,908
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Post by YL on Nov 22, 2024 9:17:57 GMT
They have quickly updated it after what I hear were a lot of complaints - seems as if they have changed the Labour button with an Aontu one. Now Labour supporters will complain. Just scrap it and start again - or, better still, drop this sort of nonsense survey. Labour don’t have a candidate in Mayo. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,723
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Post by CatholicLeft on Nov 22, 2024 11:07:31 GMT
They have quickly updated it after what I hear were a lot of complaints - seems as if they have changed the Labour button with an Aontu one. Now Labour supporters will complain. Just scrap it and start again - or, better still, drop this sort of nonsense survey. Labour don’t have a candidate in Mayo. I had not noticed that, but it makes sense given their lack of activity in Mayo - they only had a candidate in Castlebar in the local elections and he polled very badly, getting less than 2% if I remember correctly (can't be bothered looking it up) and he was their candidate in 2020, getting less than half a percent. |
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Post by irish observer on Nov 22, 2024 19:56:21 GMT
Dublin Central (4)
This is a very interesting constituency. It is composed up of the Cabra-Glasnevin and North Inner City LEAs of Dublin City Council. It contains various landmarks of Dublin including Croke Park, the Parnell Monument, Connolly Station, the IFSC, National College of Ireland, O'Connell Street, Glasnevin Cemetery, The GPO, The Botanic Gardens, the Garden of Rememberance, Dublin Port and is on the North side of the Liffey. Dalymount Park the home ground of Bohemians, "The Boeis" the original home of the Irish national soccer team is found here as is Tolka Park the home of Shelbourne FC. Main population centres in this area include Cabra, Glasnevin, Drumcondra, Phibsborough, East Wall, the growing community around the Docklands area and older communities like Ballybough, Stoneybatter, the North Strand and the North Inner City.*
*The Auld Triangle, originally penned by Dominic Behan, brother of the famous Brendan Behan, depicts prison life in Mountjoy Prison in the constituency and is a song now adopted by Bohemians FC that are Bertie Ahern's Soccer team and I think Mary Lou McDonald's also in the constituency. The Royal Canal runs from Dublin following the path of the Dublin-Sligo trainline parallel to it and can still be navigated by barge. The canals were built first like in the UK.
Current TDs: Minister for Public Expenditure Paschal Donohoe (FG), Mary Lou McDonald (SF), Garry Gannon (SD) and Neasa Hourigan (Green)
All are running again. Donohoe is secured of a seat, Phibsborough based himself, he also has a local organisation and is secure of re-appointment if FG return to Government.
Similarly McDonald is Leader of the Opposition and her seat is secure and is running Cllr Janice Boylan as her running-mate to try and take a second seat based on her high profile.
Based on the strength of the SD here in Dublin City I think Gannon will hold and will also likely benefit from the SD success in June. Nessa Hourigan has voted against the Government several times and tried to adopt a critical position regarding them on occasion which may likely attract both Government transfers and Opposition of some quantity. Furthermore this area was a former base of Ciarán Cuffe and the party held up well here in June. Clare Daly who lost her MEP seat has targetted this constituency to run in while a colleague runs in Dublin Fingal-East. She is in the mix for the last seat also as high profile and female. Senator Marie Sherlock is running for Labour. The former seat of Joe Costello the party have declined a lot here since in favour of SD and the Greens. PBP's candidate is Eoghan O Ceannabháin who failed to win a seat in June.
Senator Mary Fitzpatrick is running here for FF. Based on the Navan Road where her Dad, a local GP, was a TD, she has been a former Cllr and Group Leader of the FF Cllrs in Dublin. Since the end of the Ahern era the party has performed poorly in North Inner-City and as a result I don't see much chance of the party making a gain here.
Cllr Malachy Steenson was elected as an anti-Immigration Independent in June and is running again here. This constituency saw a lot of high-profile Far Right marches. Two other interesting Independent candidates are Kevin Sharkey the Irish artist who is both Black & Irish who is definetely running in opposition to Steenson, and Gerry Hutch aka The Monk a profile actually penned by the late Journalist Veronica Guerin RIP. Read Hutch-Dowling-Regency Airport-Trial etc as to why Hutch is running and there is a bit of score to settle here.
Remember last election turnout here tends to be relatively low hence a low FPV can put you in the frame.
Prediction: 1SF, 1FG, 1SD, GRN/I4C/Independent/FF
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Post by irish observer on Nov 22, 2024 20:56:36 GMT
Dublin North-West (3) Remains a 3 seater. Largely the same constituency as before. Ballymun and Finglas are the main centres of population here together with places like Poppintree, Santry, DCU, Broombridge, an expanding transport hub that now connects Bus,Rail and LUAS at the one stop off the Dublin-Sligo line and parts of Drumcondra and Beaumont together with some of Ashtown that has grown along the Canal. Also in this area can be found Dunsink Observatory. I used to work in this area. There are several famous pubs such as The Hole in the Wall and The Halfway House near the Martin Savage Roundabout on the Navan Road.
Current TDs: Dessie Ellis (SF), Paul McAuliffe (FF) and Róisín Shorthall (SD) who is retiring.
Ellis has been a TD since 2011 and in local politics since '99. Now in his early 70s this may be his last election. He should get re-elected relatively handily as a former poll-topper in his Finglas base. The party are also running Cathleen Carney Boud who didn't seek re-election in the locals possibly to target her to takeover from Ellis at the next election.
I would consider FF's McAuliffe to have a safe seat here. He took the seat last time at the expense of Noel Rock of FG who is running again but who has been AWOL from the political seen since. Accordingly and also given that DNW FF is relatively strong I would favour FF retention of a seat here. This is probably FG's weakest constituency in Dublin and Rock's initial election was something of a fluke, which I predicted based on the Labour transfers he would receive.
Shorthall is retiring in favour of Rory Hearne. A Sociologist from Maynooth University he ran in Ireland-East in the Euro elections. A commentator on Irish media he has a profile and there is an SD organisation here at Council level and at constituency based on Shorthall's work. Based in Santry herself she was elected as part of the Spring Tide in '92 and has retained her seat in and out of Labour ever since, the only female elected of that intake to do so. Her father was a FF politician himself and she was a teacher at a School for the Deaf. I favour an SD hold here for the third seat. Labour are not at the races here for the seat and neither are the Greens and left-wing transfers can expect to travel in their favour.
Aontú's candidate, Edward McManus, has FF origins but was once based in Castleknock. The Green candidate, Caroline Conroy, a former Lord Mayor, lost her seat in June. She made a clanger by deciding to remove the live animal crib from outside City Hall, very popular with families and children. The other 2 interesting candidates are right-winger Cllr Gavin Pepper who ran on anti-Immigrant platform in June and PBP's Cllr Conor Reddy.
Prediction: 1SF, 1FF, 1SD. I don't see the votes for a right-wing gain here.
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hiberno
Forum Regular
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Post by hiberno on Nov 22, 2024 22:55:26 GMT
Dublin Bay-North (5) is a sprawling constituency containing a mix of demographics. As mentioned it overlooks Dublin Bay on the North Side of the Liffey containing Clontarf, Fairview, Marino, Beaumont, Artane, Coolock, Edenmore, Darndale, Donaghmede, Balgriffin, Raheny, Killester and Howth. Clongriffin and Belmayne are relatively new communities that have grown up along the DART line with access to Connolly Station. DART = Dublin Area Rapid Transport network. Howth, Balgriffin, Raheny etc are part of Fingal in the Howth-Malahide area and the rest of the constituency is represented by Artane-Whitehall, Clontarf and Donaghmede Electoral Divisions on Dublin City Council. Beaumont Hospital the main centre for neuroligical care in the state is located here as is Bull Island with its famous towers from the power station and Clontarf is the site of the famous Battle in 1014 where Brian Ború famously defeated the Vikings in the famous text "The War of the Irish and the Foreigner" only to be then stabbed in his tent after praying thanks for the victory by a retreating Brodir, one of the Rulers of the Isle of Man, who came to fight against his Irish Army. Brodir was later slaughtered for the trouble but Brian's loss proved problematic for the governance of the polity like Hwyel Da in Wales but an ancestor from Munster later did re-unite Ireland and even invade and seize the Isle of Man in an act of revenge for a number of years! A great story it could be a Netflix series yet. This constituency will be another Battle of Clontarf. The music commemorates a more recent tragedy. On Valentine's Night 1981 48 young people from the constituency died in the Stardust disco throughout this area. A public inquiry is still demanded. You've recently had Grenfell Tower, more died there. Ireland's libel laws were once so strict that RTE were forced to change the word "chained" in the song lyrics despite protests from RTE staff and the song-writer, Christy Moore, having received correspondence from the owner of the Building a **@@$$$$££** This performance was the first time RTE played the song live in full on RTE in 2014. Censorship is not a good thing especially of a state broadcaster or a musician. Second is the famous Marino Waltz featuring a live performance by the last surviving member of The Dubliners John Sheahan who wrote the song. Current TDs: Denise Mitchell (SF), Cian O'Callaghan (SD), Seán Haughey (FF) and Richard Bruton (FG) are both retiring and Aodhán O Riordán (Lab) got elected as an MEP in June. Cian O'Callaghan is now Deputy Leader of the SD. They are now the second-largest party on Dublin City Council since June. The party have seats across all areas of the seat also. Denise Mitchell of SF romped home here last election and could have taken in a running-mate. Former Lord Mayor Michael MacDonncha is now running as a result. However I think the party will hold one seat rather than gain a second. FG are running 2 candidates. Former Lord Mayor and poll-topper Naoise O'Muiri and Cllr Aoibhinn Tormey who I think is a daughter of former Cllr Dr Bill Tormey. I favour O Muirí based on his profile in Dublin City rather than Tormey in Fingal end but she is the running for a second seat given they polled well in June here and are the largest party in Dublin at Council level. FF are running 2 candidates. Cllr Tom Brabazon from Donaghmede is a former Lord Mayor himself and has been a Councillor for Donaghmede since 2003. Cllr Deirdre Heney at the Clontarf end was first elected in 1999 and used work for Noel Ahern, brother of former Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern. She is the current Group Leader of the party on Dublin City Council. Personally I think FF are in the running for 1 seat only here however in her favour she started out representing Whitehall and then moved to Clontarf so has covered large parts of the area as a Councillor in her career. I don't rate Labour's chances of holding their seat. Their candidate failed to win a Council seat in June and SD have kind of cannibalised the Labour vote here. Running for the Greens is David Healy from Howth. First elected in 1991 bar one defeat as a Councillor he has been ever present since on Fingal. Well-respected and knowledgeable he is a good candidate but again SD have kind of stolen a march on their vote base here. There is an Independent seat here. Fintan O'Toole, a former Minister himself and also a part-time crooner, is backing Cllr Barry Heneghan from Clontarf who got elected in June with his support base. He is in serious contention for the Independent seat up against Cllr John Lyons formerly of PBP now Independent who represents Artane-Whitehall. Prediction: ISD, 1SF, 1FF, 1FG, 1IND. Part of the interest here is who from FG, SF and FF take their seats. FF and FG have councillors running. Deirdre Heney and Tom Brabazon have been Fianna Fáil members of Dublin City Council for many years. I would favour Brabazon here probably being better able to eat into a more working class vote probably hurting Sinn Féin. The FG seat is harder to call with both candidates well spread geographically but I would also call it for O' Muirí. I wouldn't be suprised to see a notable fall in the Sinn Féin vote and a possible change of TD too. I've seen more of Charles Haughey in the constituency than Denise Mitchell and Haughey snr died in 2006. Mitchell achieved the highest level of 1st preference votes in the country in 2020. Míchéal Mac Donncha may poll better than her this time. Heneghan will do well in the Clontarf area being backed by Clare Daly (United Russia Proxy and all around wagon) supporter Finian Mc Grath. Also running as the leader of Liberty Republic is this spanner. He's also a bit of a flag shagger, kinda an Irish Reform party. I give you ladies and gentlemen, Ben Gilroy |
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Post by irish observer on Nov 23, 2024 1:41:37 GMT
Dublin Mid-West (5) Gains a seat from the last election. A diverse constituency containing communities such as Lucan, Clondalkin, Neilstown, Quarryvale, Rathcoole, Saggart, Citywest and Palmerstown. Most of these communities are along the M50 Corridor. Liffey Valley is also a large metropolis in the area of shopping, transport and housing. Part of Tallaght namely the Fettercairn area has joined this constituency from neighbouring Dublin South-West. Arguably this has added to its left-wing profile. Driving around Lucan you can see "The Strawberry Beds" referenced in The Ferryman written by Pete St John the legendary Irish song-writer. This is recorded live in Johnnie Fox's Pub in the Dublin Mountains, there is very good Par 3 Golf Course nearby.
Current TDs: Eoin O'Broin & Mark Ward (SF), Gino Kenny (PBP) and Emer Higgins (FG). All are running again.
This is a very strong constituency for SF who returned 2 seats at the last general election having retained a by-election gain. Both are from the Clondalkin salient however they didn't have a great locals in the area. Regardless I favour them to retain their seats. Their main challenge comes from the right.
Emer Higgins of FG is also from Clondalkin. A former Cllr from the area she should retain her seat and the party are running a second candidate in female Cllr in Lord Mayor South Dublin Vikki Casserly from Lucan.
I would have considered Gino Kenny of PBP in trouble. He has campaigned for a long time for legalisation of cannabis, Palestinian recognition, homelessness and a myriad of causes passionately, however he benefitted from SF transfers to defeat John Curran of FF the last time out. But the addition of new territory will assist him given that Paul Murphy is a PBP TD for the same area where SF already poll strongly.
The last seat will then be a battle between the Government parties. Shane Moynihan of FF, a teacher, who topped the poll in Palmerstown is trying to re-gain the FF seat here and is fighting against Casserly of FG. Eoin O'Broin of SD, a Cllr from Clondalkin is also in the mix here. That's right there are 2 Eoin O'Bróin's on the ballot, 1 a SF TD and 1 a SD Cllr both who live in the Clondalkin area! Cllr Francis Timmons is running for Labour, re-elected as an Independent he joined Labour recently in Clondalkin. A few Independents are running including Cllr Alan Hayes of Palmerstown, Paul Gogarty the former Green TD, Seanan O'Coistin, who once ran in a Euro election for FF in Ireland-East and who is originally from Kildare. Cllr Linda de Courcy was elected for Independent-Ireland in Clondalkin in June and Cllr Glen Moore in Palmerstown for Irish Freedom.
Prediction: 2SF, 1FG, 1PBP/SOL, FF/FG2/Independent
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Post by relique on Nov 23, 2024 14:14:21 GMT
I tries a bit of a predicion with one week to go.
My bets are: - a good enough last two weeks for Sinn Féin but not as good as 2020, so still not good enough to get anywhere near a clear SF-led government,
- a terrible last two weeks for the government and especially Fine Gael, which is already happening but won't get any better until election day, - a new toxicity for the Greens in terms of FPV and transfers, with any "soft left" leading the pack except for them getting the transfers, - a good bump for Aontu in the crowd that made the independents rise in the last local and european elections, but not a huge one,
For reference, I used the 2020 results, so Independent Ireland and Wexford Independent Alliance appear new even though there are four incumbents (stars are given for the incumbents switching groups), and the Dublin-Bay South by election are not taken into account in the total of FG and LP. I also grouped Independent 4 chance and Right 2 change as I really didn't follow this split.
Prediction:
SF: 22,4% (-2,2), 49 seats (+11) FG: 19,6% (-1,2), 37 seats (+1) FF: 19,2% (-3), 38+1 seats (=) Ind: 11,6% (-0,6), 19 seats (=) SD: 4,4% (+1,5), 8 seats (+2) GP: 4,3% (-2,8), 1 seat (-11) II: 4,2% (new), 5 seats (+5***) Ao: 4,0% (+2,1), 4 seats (+3) LP: 3,7% (-0,7), 4 seats (-2) S-PBP: 2,6% (=), 4 seats (-1) IPP: 0,8% (+0,8), 0 seat (=)
I4C/R2C: 0,6% (+0,2), 2 seats (+1)
IFP: 0,6% (+0,3), 0 seat (=)
100%R: 0,5% (new), 1 seat (new)
NP: 0,4% (+0,2), 0 seat (=)
Wexford Indep: 0,3% (new), 1 seat (+1*)
AR: 0,2% (new), 0 seat
IF: 0,1% (new), 0 seat
LR: 0,1% (former Direct Democracy Ireland, 0,3% in 2016), 0 seat
Cen: 0,1% (former Renua 0,3% in 2020), 0 seat WUA: 0,1%, 0 seat
In the constituencies that didn't get divided or an extra seat I predict 6 with no change in seat allocation (Cork N-W, Galway W, Kerry, Kildare S, Louth, Sligo-Leitrim) and 18 with some changes that would result in:
+7 SF +5 II (***) +1 FG (+3 FG and -2 FG) +1 Aontu +1 100% Redress = FF (+3 FF and -3 FF) -1 LP (+1 LP and -2 LP) -1 S-PBP -5 Ind (***) -8 GP
in the 10 constituencies with an extra seat I see benefitting:
+3 SF (including one with -1 GP and +1 S-PBP)
+2 SD (including one with -1 S-PBP and +1 II) +2 Ind
+2 Aontu +1 FG +1 II (with -1 S-PBP and +1 SD) +1 S-PBP (with -1 GP and +1 SF)
In the 5 constituencies that become 9, I see benefitting from the 4 extra seats:
+3 Ind +2 SF +1 FF +1 I4C
+1 Wexford Independent (*)
and losing:
-2 GP -1 LP -1 Ind(*)
So FF-FG government that would need at least 12 TDs. Independents ? SD ? It could prove needing long negociations, and being a quite short-lived government...
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Post by irish observer on Nov 23, 2024 20:02:12 GMT
Dublin South-Central (4) Now totally within Dublin City Council area for electoral purposes. Loses Terenure to Dublin-Rathdown and gains part of Rathmines as a result. Effectively the Ballyfermot-Drimnagh, Kimmage and the South West Inner City areas. These two songs symbolise this area more than anything else as I see it. Olympic Boxing Medalist, Kelly O'Donoghue, who lives in the constituency sung Grace live at her public homecoming and it is a signature song in the area due to the presence of Kilmainham Gaol and is also both a love song and a Republican ballad. The tragic and beautiful love of Joseph Mary Plunkett and Grace Gifford is captured in the song and immortalised in the Kilmainham Gaol history museum complex which is free to visit. Furthermore The Rare Oul' Times symbolises the changing life and times of a young Dubliner growing up in the Dublin of the 1970s again written by Pete St John the famous song-writer and famously sung by Luke Kelly himself.
Population centres include Ballyfermot, Crumlin, Kimmage, Drimnagh, Inchicore, Chapelizod, Islandbridge, Rialto, Kilmainham, Fatima Mansions etc, The Liberties and I think Walkinstown. James Gate Brewery is found here as is St Patrick's Athletic FC, Kilmainham Gaol, one of the 2 former British Army Hospitals now the memorial to the Irish leaders executed in 1916 in the Stonebreaker's Yard. The loss of Terenure back to South of DSC may hurt both FF and FG here.
Current TDs: Aengus O Snodaigh (SF), Joan Collins (I4C), Brid Smith (PBP) retiring, Patrick Costello (Green).
Basically SF will hold as O'Snodaigh is high profile and a key party figure. His dad is a also a noted historian. PBP are trying to retain their seat but are in potential trouble. FG will not make a gain here. FF will be hurt because of loss of their Council seat in Ballyfermot of former Lord Mayor Daithi de Roiste but they retain a base in SWIC. Senator Catherine Ardagh will outpoll FG and may get their transfers but I'm unsure if 2 Government seats can be won here. The Greens did no well in this constituency in the locals in June but they lost the big prize their Euro seat and the Independent Ireland candidate polled an impressive 5th on the first count. Darragh Moriarty and Jen Cummins both Councillors in SWIC are running for Labour and SD respectively. I can see only 1 realistically being in contention but only if they outpoll the Green candidate.
As we are in the final weekend I see this constituency returning 3 left-wing and basically 1 Government seat. It is interesting of the change in Dublin that the areas of Kimmage, Crumlin, Drimnagh etc were built through FF pushed social housing policy and the party used have 2 seats here relatively comfortably and so once did Labour and Ballyfermot was the political base of the Mitchell FG family. This remains one of the constituencies with a higher base of renters than the national average partly due to new apartment living in some areas.
Smith, who is Ballyfermot based is retiring and hopes that Cllr Hazel de Norduin, who retained her seat in June, will succeed her in the Dáil. The party does have an organisation in the constituency. The other hard-core leftist is Joan Collins the de facto leader of RightToChange/Independents4Change. Collins is originally part of the same Socialist Party fratricidal family and was first elected in 2004 in Crumlin-Kimmage where her then co-optee Cllr Pat Dunne remains elected since her election to the Dáil in 2011. She cannot be underestimated but both were lucky to be returned last time and had SF ran a second candidate there now would be a second TD and one less of them. Enter Cllr Máire Devine, a former Senator, and Cllr for SWIC. Cllr Daithi Doolin their Group Leader in Dublin is also running here and ran in Dublin in the Euros also. However, I'm unsure if SF can make 2 seats here.
Cllr Philip Sutcliffe must have though he had an outside chance here. He secured a Council seat in June in Ballyfermot-Drimnagh and is a former Olympic Boxer and coach of MMA fighter Conor McGregor. However, on Friday he resigned from the party as he had been attending a Civil Case taken by a woman who had accused McGregor of sexual assault and rape and the jury found in her favour on Friday leading to an influx of calls to the Irish Rape Crisis Centre. He remains on the ballot as an Independent. Maria Hendrick, also a boxing coach, remains an Independent Ireland candidate. Irish Freedom are also running, Aontu, and The Irish People. There is also a candidate from Rabatha, a new party who want to abandon the Euro for the old Punt.
Prediction: 2SF, 1PBP/SOL, 1FF/FG
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Post by greenhert on Nov 23, 2024 21:26:36 GMT
My prediction in terms of seats (NB: changes are from the 2020 election), looking at each constituency in turn and the candidates contesting, is this:
Sinn Fein 43 (+6)
Fine Gael 38 (+3)
Fianna Fail 37 (-1)
Independents 20 (+1; note that some notable Independents are standing as Independent Ireland candidates this year)
Social Democrats 8 (+2)
People Before Profit-Solidarity: 6 (+1)
Independent Ireland 6 (+6)
Labour 6 (+1)
Aontu 3 (+2)
Green 2 (-10)
Independents for Change: 2 (+2)
Right to Change 1 (+1)
100% redress 1 (+1)
Ceann Comhairle 1 (automatically elected)
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Post by mattbewilson on Nov 23, 2024 22:14:08 GMT
My prediction in terms of seats (NB: changes are from the 2020 election), looking at each constituency in turn and the candidates contesting, is this: Sinn Fein 43 (+6) Fine Gael 38 (+3) Fianna Fail 37 (-1) Independents 20 (+1; note that some notable Independents are standing as Independent Ireland candidates this year) Social Democrats 8 (+2) People Before Profit-Solidarity: 6 (+1) Independent Ireland 6 (+6) Labour 6 (+1) Aontu 3 (+2) Green 2 (-10) Independents for Change: 2 (+2) Right to Change 1 (+1) 100% redress 1 (+1) Ceann Comhairle 1 (automatically elected) is ironic that SF came second in seats despite being first in popular vote but could now come first in seats despite being third in vote |
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