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Post by irish observer on Nov 19, 2024 21:13:23 GMT
Offaly (3) is also a new constituency given the abolition of Laois-Offaly 5 seater. All of Offaly forms the constituency territory. Tullamore is the main population centre with Edenderry in the west and Birr near the Tipperary border the heartland of Offaly hurling in what remains a dual GAA county. Daingean is also found in the county which was once called Philipstown after "Bloody Mary"'s husband, indeed for UK viewers Offaly was once known as King's County for this reason. Just Transition is a programme to redevelop the county and the midlands area following the closure of the peat burning power stations, several of whom were located in Offaly due to the peat bogs harnessed with the creation of Bord na Mona. This is a hot-topic as to how to re-develop the county both in terms of retrofitting housing, buildings, energy, industrial production, transport etc.
Current TDs: Carol Nolan (Independent who was originally SF before the Abortion referendum) and Barry Cowen now an MEP. All 3 other TDs are Laois based.
This is the first-time since the 1960s that no Cowen is running. Clara, also the home of Shane Lowry the golfer, once returned Brian Cowen as Taoiseach. This time they are running Cllr Tony McCormack of Tullamore the current Cathaoirleach of Offaly County Council and Cllr Clare Murray a nurse from Edenderry and first elected in June. She defeated her running-mate Cllr Eddie Fitzpatrick, himself a former Cathaoirleach of Offaly and of the Regional Assembly in the Midlands, however he had been a former Independent and PD before getting elected for FF. Since not getting selected at convention he has quit the party and gone Independent. He will damage Murray's chances of a potential FF second seat here as they had a chance before the last time Offaly was a 3 seat constituency.
Carol Nolan is running again under the Independent banner and thus lessens the chances of other Independents making inroads here while also lessening the impact of both SF given her former roots in the party and of Aontú given her pro-life stance. I think, as the only sitting TD to seek re-election she will hold her seat. Furthermore SF were wiped out on the Council in 2019 but made a return in 2024. This improvement might have better suited them in a Laois-Offaly 5 seater as a result. In addition the candidacy of Cllr Fergus McDonnell also from the west of the County for Independent Ireland will further damage the chances of FF to win a second seat, assist Nolan in her retention, but also possibly limit Fitzpatrick's starting base. Similar to Fitzpatrick, McDonnell was also in the PDs but stayed Independent, lost his seat in 2019 and got re-elected in 2024 under the Independent-Ireland. banner.
FG's candidate is Cllr John Clendennen of Birr, who's father, Percy, was also a former Councillor. He is running on his own. Depending on how polls go for FG this could prove a risky strategy.
Prediction: 1FF, 1IND, 1FG.
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Post by irish observer on Nov 19, 2024 21:17:42 GMT
I could like each of these analyses. They are superb. Instead I'll post a general thank you I prefer these to what the wacko Yates is saying (I think he said Adrienne Wallace of PBP going from 1,500 votes in 2020 will take Sinn Féin's seat - from 17,500 votes of, admittedly, Kathleen Funchion - in Carlow-Kilkenny).
Edit: a first constituency poll in Donega from TG4l. Globally that's:
SF: 35% (-10 from 2020) FF: 25% (+5) FG: 12% (-2) Ind Pringle: 11% (+3) 100% Redress: 6% (new) Aontu: 4% (+1) With Doherty SF at 22% topping the poll, then the two FF with The Cope Gallagher at 13% and McConalogue incumbent at 12%, the second incumbent SF at 11% (the third candidate at 2%), Thomas Pringle at 11%, Charles Ward from 100% Redress at 6%, the two FG at 6%, and Aontu at 4%. The others would get 2% or less.
It would be a battle for the fourth and fifth seat between Ward 100% Redress, Pringle and the second FF. The two SF seem secure, and FG doesn't seem able to get one in the running but might help FF get two.
That polls not far off my prediction but you heard what Catholicleft said based on his Donegal relatives. I wrote off FG there early though I give Redress a seat and think its between FF2 and Pringle for the last if FF can take a second. You know what they say a week's a long-time in politics. You don't know how many I have in my team of analysts!  |
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Post by irish observer on Nov 19, 2024 21:22:06 GMT
I prefer these to what the wacko Yates is saying (I think he said Adrienne Wallace of PBP going from 1,500 votes in 2020 will take Sinn Féin's seat - from 17,500 votes of, admittedly, Kathleen Funchion - in Carlow-Kilkenny).
Edit: a first constituency poll in Donega from TG4l. Globally that's:
SF: 35% (-10 from 2020) FF: 25% (+5) FG: 12% (-2) Ind Pringle: 11% (+3) 100% Redress: 6% (new) Aontu: 4% (+1) With Doherty SF at 22% topping the poll, then the two FF with The Cope Gallagher at 13% and McConalogue incumbent at 12%, the second incumbent SF at 11% (the third candidate at 2%), Thomas Pringle at 11%, Charles Ward from 100% Redress at 6%, the two FG at 6%, and Aontu at 4%. The others would get 2% or less.
It would be a battle for the fourth and fifth seat between Ward 100% Redress, Pringle and the second FF. The two SF seem secure, and FG doesn't seem able to get one in the running but might help FF get two.
Why do they conduct these polls? They always leave the pollsters with egg on their faces. Having just returned from Donegal, I am willing to put my money on 100% Redress's Cahrles Ward achieving far better than 6% in the FPV and gaining a seat. I repeat what I have said before, look at the pols conducted in Kerry foe the last two General Elections, both of which projected that Danny Healy-Rae would receive 4% FPV and likely lose in 2020 - he received 12.6% in 2016 and 11.2% in 2020. They were TG4 polls by Ipsos MRBI. I think TG4 are focusing on polls in constituencies with a Gaeltacht specific audience hence Galway West, Donegal and Kerry for example like before. |
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Post by irish observer on Nov 19, 2024 21:23:54 GMT
I could like each of these analyses. They are superb. Instead I'll post a general thank you You could always all vote or nominate me for something like Irish/European or humorous analyst of the year or something at the end of year awards ceremony! |
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relique
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Post by relique on Nov 19, 2024 21:55:50 GMT
I prefer these to what the wacko Yates is saying (I think he said Adrienne Wallace of PBP going from 1,500 votes in 2020 will take Sinn Féin's seat - from 17,500 votes of, admittedly, Kathleen Funchion - in Carlow-Kilkenny).
Edit: a first constituency poll in Donega from TG4l. Globally that's:
SF: 35% (-10 from 2020) FF: 25% (+5) FG: 12% (-2) Ind Pringle: 11% (+3) 100% Redress: 6% (new) Aontu: 4% (+1) With Doherty SF at 22% topping the poll, then the two FF with The Cope Gallagher at 13% and McConalogue incumbent at 12%, the second incumbent SF at 11% (the third candidate at 2%), Thomas Pringle at 11%, Charles Ward from 100% Redress at 6%, the two FG at 6%, and Aontu at 4%. The others would get 2% or less.
It would be a battle for the fourth and fifth seat between Ward 100% Redress, Pringle and the second FF. The two SF seem secure, and FG doesn't seem able to get one in the running but might help FF get two.
That polls not far off my prediction but you heard what Catholicleft said based on his Donegal relatives. I wrote off FG there early though I give Redress a seat and think its between FF2 and Pringle for the last if FF can take a second. You know what they say a week's a long-time in politics. You don't know how many I have in my team of analysts! I must say it makes a lot of sense that Ward will have more on the day. I don't know how many more debates there will be but if Toibin gets more TV exposure his Aontu candidates might benefit from the right-wing pool of votes. National elections do tend to attract people not really following very local politics... FG really don't seem to get any kind of bump in Donegal, thought, and I'm not sure next week will be more favourable to them, given the scandals brewing... |
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relique
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Post by relique on Nov 19, 2024 21:56:21 GMT
I could like each of these analyses. They are superb. Instead I'll post a general thank you You could always all vote or nominate me for something like Irish/European or humorous analyst of the year or something at the end of year awards ceremony! I'd vote for you in a foreign contributor award ! |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Nov 19, 2024 22:14:41 GMT
You could always all vote or nominate me for something like Irish/European or humorous analyst of the year or something at the end of year awards ceremony! I'd vote for you in a foreign contributor award ! Ireland is not a foreign country, so says the legislation that made Ireland independent. |
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Post by irish observer on Nov 20, 2024 0:21:22 GMT
Longford-Westmeath (5) Gains a seat from last time and encompasses all of the counties of Longford and Westmeath now. The main towns include Mullingar, Athlone, Kilbeggan, Longford, Granard, Moate and Edgeworthstown. The Sligo train line to Dublin Connolly and the Mayo and Galway train lines to Dublin Heuston bisect this constituency. This is the western border of Leinster but the commuter belt to Dublin does also extend this far westwards. Transport, housing, infrastructure etc are also issues for these voters similar to patterns of those others who have moved out of Dublin and commute eastwards daily. Athlone, interestingly, takes its name from An Táin Bó Cuailgne, the greatest Irish piece of Gaelic script that has been translated into English. Ath Luain means literally the Ford of the Loins where apparently The Brown Bull tossed the White Bull's loins off his horns at the Shannon and stamped them into the ground thus making the ford which today is actually on both banks of the Shannon, part in Connacht (Roscommon-side) and Leinster (Westmeath-side). There have been calls to rejoin the populations together based on what The Brown Bull started in the 21st century but they came to nought!
Athlone is a Regional Growth Centre but would be better planned were it governed by a unitary authority at LG level. Most population is in Westmeath currently the TD balance is 3:1 however currently Athlone has no TD. Can Longford win a second TD? These are all important issues here.
But now to music. I choose TR Dallas for Westmeath as aka Tom Allen he was a former FF Cllr under the same name while doing the C&W Circuit which he still does. One of his brothers is part of the Foster & Allen duo who once appeared on Top of the Pops dressed as Leprachauns. All were managed by Donie Cassidy former FF TD and Senator from Castlepollard near the Meath border who also owns the Irish Wax Works Museum. Joe Dolan's political allegiances were never known by me!
Current TDs: Minister Peter Burke (FG), Sorcha Clarke (SF), Robert Troy and Joe Flaherty (FF). All are running again.
FF's chances of retaining 2 seats which was a gain for the party last-time out are boosted by the lower quota needed in a 5 seater and that Flaherty is based in Longford town, currently the only TD and a former Councillor and newspaper editor before entering politics. Troy, a former Minister of State started off running a post-office before winning a Council seat in 2004 and making it to the Dáil in 2011. Troy resigned as Minister of State over property disclosure interests but remains the longest-serving and highest profile TD and benefits from the return of North Westmeath (The Castlepollard nexus) from Meath West which is good FF territory.
Burke is based in Mullingar also and can claim to be the only FG candidate, if not government candidate in line for high office if re-elected. Generally a safe pair of hands he should be returned for FG. They are also running Senator Michael Carrigy from Longford. A former Councillor he also previously ran a post-office which is an important route to electoral office in some rural constituencies. One could say FG are trying to mirror Troy's career path with Carrigy. The party previously held a Longford seat through James Bannon from 2007-16. Tanya Cannon is an Athlone businesswoman but is not in contention for a seat.
Sorcha Clarke of SF is running again. I understand she operates 3 offices in the constituency based on a claim I heard on a Radio debate however this certainly hasn't grown the party in Longford which remains arguably their worst performing county electorally in the State. Their Longford candidate, Barry Campion, polled poorly in June. With the lower quota it improves their chances of seat retention which I favour at the moment.
The prime candidate to regain the Athlone seat is former Minister Independent Cllr Kevin "Boxer" Moran. Something of a surprise casualty at the last election he has soldiered away in community work and regained his council seat with almost 4,000 FPV votes in June. The Independent seat and Athlone seat should go to Boxer. He did actually help alleviate flooding himself when a TD during the famous floods during Enda Kenny's tenure as Taoiseach when the Shannon burst its banks at Athlone. The last Minister from Athlone before him was the recently deceased FF Mary O'Rourke. There has always been something of a rival for primacy between Athlone and Mullingar for supremacy in Westmeath. Its important to recognise that Athlone was a former Urban Council, meaning it struck a rate, while Mullingar was a Town Commission that never struck one though at the time the largest Town Commission in the state. There was a joke on the Podge and Rodge show, made by the same guys who brought Zig and Zag to Ch4 from RTE that: "He went to big smoke." "Ah, Mullingar!" as if it were the real Capital of the Midlands and not Athlone. I have known many people from Westmeath in my time through College, work, social and political life.
The other Athlone candidate is Cllr Paul Hogan who is Independent-Ireland and formerly SF who quit the party. It was once said and I did previously describe him as having a resemblance to Harry Potter. I am somewhat surprised to see Gerry Warnock running, he retired from Longford Council in June but has decided to give it a lash for the General. It is the year of the Independent but I think Longford will stay with the main parties.
Prediction: 2FF 1FG 1SF 1IND.
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Post by swanarcadian on Nov 20, 2024 0:53:27 GMT
I'd vote for you in a foreign contributor award ! Ireland is not a foreign country, so says the legislation that made Ireland independent. I would like to add my thanks to irish observer for his constituency profiles. So that they don’t fall out of sight, perhaps we ought to have some threads with each profile as the opening post? |
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Post by irish observer on Nov 20, 2024 8:19:03 GMT
Ireland is not a foreign country, so says the legislation that made Ireland independent. I would like to add my thanks to irish observer for his constituency profiles. So that they don’t fall out of sight, perhaps we ought to have some threads with each profile as the opening post? I'll be honest I don't know how to create the specific threads for each page. Can posts be migrated over? |
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Post by swanarcadian on Nov 20, 2024 8:22:11 GMT
I would like to add my thanks to irish observer for his constituency profiles. So that they don’t fall out of sight, perhaps we ought to have some threads with each profile as the opening post? I'll be honest I don't know how to create the specific threads for each page. Can posts be migrated over? I was thinking it would be something the mods could consider, ie. creating a sub folder like the ones for the US states. Yes, posts can be migrated. |
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Post by irish observer on Nov 20, 2024 9:21:18 GMT
Meath West (3) The area remains a 3 seater but loses the rural areas of NE Westmeath back into Longford-Westmeath their original home. The cockpit and largest population centre of this constituency is Navan, home to Navan Hospital and the long-awaited rail extension. Trim on the South Western border is the second-largest population centre and has association with Lord Wellington who lived in Dangan Castle on the Trim Road for much of his childhood. Trim is also a heritage town and a column commemorates this link. Athboy, Enfield and Oldcastle are also parts of this constituency that takes in the Trim and Navan LEAs and much of Kells but not the town. Health and transport will remain perennial issues together with education and other commuter style constituency issues.
Current TDs: Peadar Tóibín (Aontú), Johnny Guirke (SF) and Damien English (FG) who is retiring. Former FF TD and current Senator Shane Cassells is also retiring from politics also.
First to Aontú. Peadar is the founder and chief strategist of the party. His sister is a Cllr in Navan where he also Chairs the Hospital Action Committee. He should be re-elected comfortably, the Euro elected boosted his profile in the run-up and they had a good LE contest.
Guirke will hope to retain here for SF. It must be said not as well known nationally as some other SF figures in the Dáil his home-base is relatively rural and will be relying on the SF brand carrying through into Navan, Trim and associated urban areas.
Cassells withdrew in advance of the FF Selection Convention that chose Cllr Aisling Dempsey of Trim. Daughter of Noel Dempsey the former Minister and FF election strategist she has the backing of the party organisation including Cassells who has been on the canvass for her in Navan. The party hope to regain the seat that they lost in 2020 and arguably English' retirement gives them the opportunity given his absence from the ballot paper in Navan this time his home-base.
FG have chosen Cllr Linda Nelson Murray, a businesswoman in Navan who was first elected in June. The FG vote will be hit however by the candidacy of former FG Cllr and now Independent rural Trim based Noel French. He was re-elected as an Independent in June. For many Aontú is seen "an Independent" or alternative voting option but not here in Meath West.
Cllr Ronan Moore who was re-elected in June is running for the Social Democrats. Labour and Greens aren't at the races here. Ben Gilroy has been a serial campaigner on many issues over the years it will be interesting to see how many votes he polls.
Prediction: 1 Aontú SF FF/FG for last seat.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Nov 20, 2024 10:56:56 GMT
I am absolutely baffled, I have just discovered that I have been blocked on Twitter by @suzyjourno, Suzanne Breen, the Political Editor of the Belfast Telegraph. As I have never had a nasty or controversial interaction with her, and respect her political journalism, and am not sure she is even aware of my existence, I wonder why she has blocked me?
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obsie
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Post by obsie on Nov 20, 2024 14:45:16 GMT
Longford-Westmeath (5) Gains a seat from last time and encompasses all of the counties of Longford and Westmeath now. The main towns include Mullingar, Athlone, Kilbeggan, Longford, Granard, Moate and Edgeworthstown. The Sligo train line to Dublin Connolly and the Mayo and Galway train lines to Dublin Heuston bisect this constituency. This is the western border of Leinster but the commuter belt to Dublin does also extend this far westwards. Transport, housing, infrastructure etc are also issues for these voters similar to patterns of those others who have moved out of Dublin and commute eastwards daily. Athlone, interestingly, takes its name from An Táin Bó Cuailgne, the greatest Irish piece of Gaelic script that has been translated into English. Ath Luain means literally the Ford of the Loins where apparently The Brown Bull tossed the White Bull's loins off his horns at the Shannon and stamped them into the ground thus making the ford which today is actually on both banks of the Shannon, part in Connacht (Roscommon-side) and Leinster (Westmeath-side). There have been calls to rejoin the populations together based on what The Brown Bull started in the 21st century but they came to nought! Athlone is a Regional Growth Centre but would be better planned were it governed by a unitary authority at LG level. Most population is in Westmeath currently the TD balance is 3:1 however currently Athlone has no TD. Can Longford win a second TD? These are all important issues here. But now to music. I choose TR Dallas for Westmeath as aka Tom Allen he was a former FF Cllr under the same name while doing the C&W Circuit which he still does. One of his brothers is part of the Foster & Allen duo who once appeared on Top of the Pops dressed as Leprachauns. All were managed by Donie Cassidy former FF TD and Senator from Castlepollard near the Meath border who also owns the Irish Wax Works Museum. Joe Dolan's political allegiances were never known by me! Current TDs: Minister Peter Burke (FG), Sorcha Clarke (SF), Robert Troy and Joe Flaherty (FF). All are running again. FF's chances of retaining 2 seats which was a gain for the party last-time out are boosted by the lower quota needed in a 5 seater and that Flaherty is based in Longford town, currently the only TD and a former Councillor and newspaper editor before entering politics. Troy, a former Minister of State started off running a post-office before winning a Council seat in 2004 and making it to the Dáil in 2011. Troy resigned as Minister of State over property disclosure interests but remains the longest-serving and highest profile TD and benefits from the return of North Westmeath (The Castlepollard nexus) from Meath West which is good FF territory. Burke is based in Mullingar also and can claim to be the only FG candidate, if not government candidate in line for high office if re-elected. Generally a safe pair of hands he should be returned for FG. They are also running Senator Michael Carrigy from Longford. A former Councillor he also previously ran a post-office which is an important route to electoral office in some rural constituencies. One could say FG are trying to mirror Troy's career path with Carrigy. The party previously held a Longford seat through James Bannon from 2007-16. Tanya Cannon is an Athlone businesswoman but is not in contention for a seat. Sorcha Clarke of SF is running again. I understand she operates 3 offices in the constituency based on a claim I heard on a Radio debate however this certainly hasn't grown the party in Longford which remains arguably their worst performing county electorally in the State. Their Longford candidate, Barry Campion, polled poorly in June. With the lower quota it improves their chances of seat retention which I favour at the moment. The prime candidate to regain the Athlone seat is former Minister Independent Cllr Kevin "Boxer" Moran. Something of a surprise casualty at the last election he has soldiered away in community work and regained his council seat with almost 4,000 FPV votes in June. The Independent seat and Athlone seat should go to Boxer. He did actually help alleviate flooding himself when a TD during the famous floods during Enda Kenny's tenure as Taoiseach when the Shannon burst its banks at Athlone. The last Minister from Athlone before him was the recently deceased FF Mary O'Rourke. There has always been something of a rival for primacy between Athlone and Mullingar for supremacy in Westmeath. Its important to recognise that Athlone was a former Urban Council, meaning it struck a rate, while Mullingar was a Town Commission that never struck one though at the time the largest Town Commission in the state. There was a joke on the Podge and Rodge show, made by the same guys who brought Zig and Zag to Ch4 from RTE that: "He went to big smoke." "Ah, Mullingar!" as if it were the real Capital of the Midlands and not Athlone. I have known many people from Westmeath in my time through College, work, social and political life. The other Athlone candidate is Cllr Paul Hogan who is Independent-Ireland and formerly SF who quit the party. It was once said and I did previously describe him as having a resemblance to Harry Potter. I am somewhat surprised to see Gerry Warnock running, he retired from Longford Council in June but has decided to give it a lash for the General. It is the year of the Independent but I think Longford will stay with the main parties. Prediction: 2FF 1FG 1SF 1IND. As a Longford-based voter I'd expect Boxer Moran to cruise home as the only serious candidate from Athlone (both FF and FG have nominated obvious token female candidates without any electoral record late in the day). The addition of the area from Castlepollard over to Delvin and down to Raharney, traditionally strongly FF/Republican, should benefit the three Mullingar-based candidates. Campion seems to have been deliberately chosen not to threaten Sorca Clarke's FPV; if they'd been making a challenge for a second seat I'd have expected a different Longford candidate. I think the race between Carrigy and Flaherty is at best touch-and-go for Flaherty as Carrigy has been by far the more visible candidate locally since 2020. Warnock had more or less said at the time of his standing down from the County Council that he felt that local politics were ineffective and left a move to national politics very clearly on the table. He's not well known enough outside Longford town to be a threat more widely but he'll hit Flaherty proportionally more than Carrigy.
(Longford being SF's weakest county is a product of the 1986 split over abstention from Dáil Éireann where most of the local support went with Ruairí Ó Brádaigh for local loyalty reasons, leaving behind a shell organisation populated by Northern exiles and obvious weirdos, and it hasn't really recovered since.)
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 20, 2024 15:28:49 GMT
On the O'Bradaigh note- do Republican Sinn Fein exist in any meaningful way these days?
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Post by minionofmidas on Nov 20, 2024 17:20:54 GMT
I note that the Greens and Aontu manage a candidate in every seat (and Solidarity nearly so) but Labour have left several constituencies uncontested. Another sign of the latter's decline? Labour did not contest several constituencies in Ireland in 2016 and 2020, notably Mayo which is the weakest county for them in all Ireland. Even in 2011 they only polled 4.9% in Mayo, not even enough to reclaim election expenses. Right, but this and the other point about dire results for unknown candidates are true of the Greens, Aontú and PBP as well. Labour's approach - shared by the SDs - is no way to ever hope to revive the party. No way of finding a talented candidate, no way of benefitting from headwind during the campaign, either. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Nov 20, 2024 17:25:10 GMT
"Wexford-Wicklow (3) is a new constituency and has one of the most universally unpopular names of an Irish constituency ever" I did think it was strange to have the same place named in two different constituencies. Was any alternative considered? Are there any detailed maps available for the Forum to use to suggest a better name? But, given the county-based naming style, I suspect the most likely alternative would have been something like Wicklow South-Wexford North, which I doubt would have been very popular either. Also a very real chance of Wicklow N, Wexford S, and Wicklow - Wexford. It is *slightly* clearer than what they went with... |
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Post by minionofmidas on Nov 20, 2024 17:28:23 GMT
There are 682 candidatures for Dáil Éireann, a record. That includes one candidate contesting six constituencies (John O'Leary), and one candidate contesting three constituencies (Ben Gilroy). Louth has 25 candidates which is an all-time record. Amusingly this John O'Leary is doing what one Seán O'Leary did last time. Does anybody know anything about him, it's a very common name. (The less said about Ben Gilroy the better). |
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Post by robert1 on Nov 20, 2024 18:04:16 GMT
"Wexford-Wicklow (3) is a new constituency and has one of the most universally unpopular names of an Irish constituency ever" I did think it was strange to have the same place named in two different constituencies. Was any alternative considered? Are there any detailed maps available for the Forum to use to suggest a better name? Ireland could always follow the developing British policy of including in the name virtually every village in a constituency! |
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Post by johnloony on Nov 20, 2024 18:06:16 GMT
I am absolutely baffled, I have just discovered that I have been blocked on Twitter by @suzyjourno, Suzanne Breen, the Political Editor of the Belfast Telegraph. As I have never had a nasty or controversial interaction with her, and respect her political journalism, and am not sure she is even aware of my existence, I wonder why she has blocked me? I have been blocked on Twitter by several people with whom I have had no interaction. I think some people have "block lists" which they copy from other people, often with tenuous reasons which don't make sense. |
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