Irish elections

[The Bishop]

I note that the Greens and Aontu manage a candidate in every seat (and Solidarity nearly so) but Labour have left several constituencies uncontested.

Another sign of the latter's decline?

[jamie]

Nov 17, 2024 11:11:52 GMT The Bishop said:

I note that the Greens and Aontu manage a candidate in every seat (and Solidarity nearly so) but Labour have left several constituencies uncontested.

Another sign of the latter's decline?

It’s just accepting reality, the Labour vote at this point is a collection of personal votes and local machines, so anywhere where this is not the case will probably produce a dire result. 

[irish observer]

Wexford (4) is now reduced in size by 1 seat and loses considerable territory around the Gorey area and the Enniscorthy rural area to the new Wicklow-Wexford constituency, more of this later. Now the main population centres of the area are ever more focused on the large town of Wexford, a former Borough, New Ross, Rosslare and Enniscorthy. Wexford is famous for its ballads many synonymous with the 1798 Rebellion and I select this version of The Boys of Wexford here.



Current TDs: James Browne (FF), Verona Murphy (Independent), Johnny Mythen (SF) with both Paul Kehoe (FG) and Brendan Howlin (Lab) retiring

Murphy should be confident of a seat. A former President of the Road Haulage Association she won a seat at the last election and built an organisation of Councillors at the recent elections in June with 5 elected. A number of other Independents have entered the race the most interesting being Mick Wallace the former MEP who was unseated in June. Perhaps prompted by Clare Daly's decision to run in Dublin Central he has decided to run again in Wexford. Cllr Jackser Owens (Enniscorthy) is also running as is Cllr Michael Sheehan (New Ross). Sheehan was re-elected for FF in June and was recently Cathaoirleach of Wexford Council which has given him added profile. New Ross' only problem would be geography as west of the town you are in Kilkenny but he has been in politics for over 25 years. He polled well in the last Dáil election and I feel he is certainly in the running for a seat.

FF's efforts have been hindered by Sheehan's defection as mentioned above after he failed to be selected at convention. As well as Browne the party opted for Michelle O'Neill a recently retired International football referee from Wexford who failed to get elected under Verona Murphy's banner in June. This probably didn't endear her candidacy to Sheehan and his supporters. Browne has lost territory north of Enniscorthy in the rural part of the district which would be Browne's home base but I would favour him to hold on.

SF's Mythen polled well to secure a Dáil seat last time despite having lost his Council seat at the preceeding local election. He is also Enniscorthy based though must be disappointed at the failure to regain his former seat at Council level back for the party though they secured seats in Rosslare and Wexford. Aontu's Pat Codd will poll strongly and could dent the SF vote but may also transfer back to them if eliminated later on.

George Lawlor is running for Labour. A former Aide to Brendan Howlin he has worked with him for a long-time and has been a Councillor in the Wexford Area, the Howlin's base for a long-time also. Wexford town has historically been the base of Howlin's vote and if Lawlor can hold most of it he could retain the seat.

FG are running 2 Cllrs in Cathal Byrne (Enniscorthy) and Bridin Murphy (New Ross) this time out to try and retain the FG seat.

Prediction: 1FF, 1 Murphy, 1SF Lab/FG for the last seat.

[greenhert]

Nov 17, 2024 11:11:52 GMT The Bishop said:

I note that the Greens and Aontu manage a candidate in every seat (and Solidarity nearly so) but Labour have left several constituencies uncontested.

Another sign of the latter's decline?

Labour did not contest several constituencies in Ireland in 2016 and 2020, notably Mayo which is the weakest county for them in all Ireland. Even in 2011 they only polled 4.9% in Mayo, not even enough to reclaim election expenses.

[irish observer]

Wexford-Wicklow (3) is a new constituency and has one of the most universally unpopular names of an Irish constituency ever as it is only part of each county. Which part you might ask? There in lies the rub? The areas removed from north of Enniscorthy centred on Gorey town form the Wexford part of this territory as do historical villages such as Bunclody and Boolavogue that have ballads named after them and I think Ferns, the name of an Irish diocese and the former capital of the MacMurrough's of Wexford once Leinster Kings. The largest part of the Wicklow territory is Arklow town which strange as it may seem since the foundation of the state has never had a TD elected from there.





FF are running 2 candidates in Gorey based Senator Malcolm Byrne and Cllr Pat Kennedy from the Arklow District. Byrne is well-known, he won a by-election in 2019 in Wexford but failed to retain it in 2020. He regained his Seanad seat, however. Kennedy has been a Councillor since 2014 and comes from a District area where FF have held 3/6 up until June. In addition Arklow want to have a TD from the area. They have organisation on both sides of the county divide and I favour them to win 1 seat.

FG are running Brian Brennan, a hotelier with the Brennan Group and the Arklow Bay Hotel in this election. Senator Pat Casey for FF started out as a hotelier before entering politics, it has been a route tried before.

SF's candidate is Gorey Cllr Fionntain O'Suilleabhain, a Special Needs Teacher and a Cllr since 2014. I think they have a good chance of a seat.

Other candidates in the mix include Cllr Peir Leonard of Arklow, an Independent who topped the poll in June she could make a claim to the Arklow needs a TD vote.

Prediction: 1FF 1SF Independent/FG for the last seat.

[irish observer]

Wicklow (4) Reduced in size considerably by 1 seat to a 4 Seater and now comprising Bray, Greystones, Wicklow and parts of Baltinglass. The rest of the Garden County has gone to the new Wexford-Wicklow constituency. An unusual feat of the last election was that all 5 TDs were elected from the Bray-Greystones area. Now 5 are running for 4 seats so at least 1 is assured to lose a seat.



Current TDs: Taoiseach Simon Harris (FG), Minister for Health Simon Donnelly (FF), John Brady (SF), Jennifer Whitmore (SD) and Steven Matthews (GRN)

Harris is a lock for a seat and I also rate Brady and Whitmore highly. FG's second candidate is Cllr Edward Timmins from Baltinglass whose Dad, Godfrey and brother, Billy, were both TDs. Donnelly is the sole FF candidate and I think will be hurt as a result as Health is a touchstone issue and he hasn't been successful in building an electoral base at local level. Brady's base partly crumbled but he retained his seat comfortably last time out and Whitmore, a former party colleague of Donnelly's, has expanded her network since.

Cllr Joe Behan, a former FF TD himself, is running again out of Bray and Cllr Gerry O'Neill an Independent defector from SF is also running. Equally the chances of an Independent gain are further increased by the candidacy of Shay Cullen the former FG Cllr and Insider who thought he was in the running himself for a nomination.

Giving the first 3 seats this way: 1FG ISF 1SD I see a long battle for the last seat between FG2/FF/GRN/Independent.

[irish observer]

Kildare North gains a seat at this election to become a 5 seater. Kildare is arguably the fastest growing county in the state and a commuter belt expansion of Dublin. For example in 1977 Kildare had 3 TDs. Together now both Kildare constituencies return 9 TDs representing the rapid growth of the area. Kildare North is highly urbanised with population in Leixlip, Celbridge, Maynooth (a University Town), Naas, Straffan (home to the K Club which hosted the Ryder Cup in Ireland) and smaller settlements like Kill, Carbery and Bodenstown. Hewlett Packard and Intel are based in the area as well as the University Campus so High-Tech industry is very important and two train lines run servicing Connolly and Heuston so commuter services are a very important issue as is housing and issues such as childcare and health and quality of life in general. Bodenstown Cemetery is also the resting place of Theobald Wolfe Tone the father of Irish Republicanism recognised every year by Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin and other fringe groups.



Current Tds: Bernard Durkan (FG) and Father of the House, Minister James Lawless (FF), Reada Cronin (SF) and Catherine Murphy (SD) who is retiring.

Catherine Murphy has been in Kildare North politics since first being elected in 1985 for the Workers Party. Having joined DL she declined to join the Labour Party and remained an Independent and won a by-election under that banner when Charlie McCreevy went to Europe as EU Commissioner. I voted here during this by-election campaign in 2005. Murphy lost her seat at the subsequent Dáil election but regained it in 2011 having regained her Council seat in 2009. Since forming the Social Democrats with Roisin Shorthall and Steven Donnelly she has built a base across Kildare to 7 Council seats supplanting the former position of the Labour Party as the third party in Kildare politics. Her retirement causes difficulties with an otherwise safe seat. Cllr Aidan Farrelly from Clane was selected at convention but Cllr Bill Clear from Naas who topped the poll there lost out and has since gone Independent. However, Murphy is still a force to be reckoned with in Kildare politics and I predict with her backing and that of her network Farrelly will retain the SD seat for the party.

FG are running the ageless Brendan Durkan again (79 years young) who resides in Carbery outside Maynooth. He took the last seat at the last 2 Dáil elections. This time around Cllr Joe Neville (Leixlip) and Cllr Evie Sammon (Naas) are his running-mates. I think this is a well-balanced ticket and on paper puts them in the mix for a second seat especially with the additional seat in Kildare North.

FF are running James Lawless again, who is based in Sallins, part of the Naas electoral area and he built his electoral base dealing with commuters and focusing on technology issues. His running-mate is Cllr Naoise O'Cearúil who is from Maynooth, and who actually is a neighbour of Reada Cronin the SF TD in the same estate in Moyglare in Maynooth. Local lad he attended the University at Maynooth where he studied Irish in which he is fluent. Lawless and he are both graduates of the same FF College Cumann in Maynooth University a few years apart. First elected in 2014 O'Cearúil is also recently married and is a good candidate in FF's campaign for a second seat. They are both involved in the FF Bodenstown Ceremony annually and are better divided geographically than Lawless and former TD Frank O'Rourke who has now retired from politics.

Reada Cronin, as previously mentioned lives in Maynooth very close to O'Cearúil. If you check LE votes he has significantly outpolled her at local level before and she lost her Council seat in 2019 before getting elected to the Dáil in the SF highmark of 2020. The decision to run her office manager, Caroline Hogan, could prove fatal in reducing FPVs if her own FPV declines in Maynooth to O'Cearúil.

Vincent P. Martin, a Senator is running again for the Greens. Originally from Carrickmacross he moved to Kildare some years back and won a Council seat for the party in 2019. He failed to get elected to the Dáil in 2020 but was nominated to the Seanad with the help of his sister, Minister Catherine Martin, Green TD for Dublin Rathhdown. Personally I don't think he's in the running as Greens were wiped out in Kildare in June at Local level.

Labour's candidate is Cllr Angela Feeney, also a Cllr in the Maynooth area, historically a Labour town at voting level. Emmett Stagg used hold clinics here regularly while a TD for example.

No other candidate jumps out here.

Prediction: 1 seat each to FF, FG and SD with Murphy's help. Last 2 are up in the air and this is a bellwether of the Commuter Belt and Dublin in effect. The only credible Independent candidate is Clear. If enough Indo votes coalesce around him he's in the hunt. If not its a battle between FF2/FG2 for a 2nd seat between them with SF trying to hang on from a possible Labour challenge. If Labour rise in Dublin it is likely to follow through into commuter belt areas such as Kildare. In any case SD are ahead of them here on the ground.

1FF, 1FG, 1SD, FF2/FG2/Independent/SF/Lab for last 2 seats.

[The Bishop]

Nov 17, 2024 21:59:21 GMT greenhert said:

Nov 17, 2024 11:11:52 GMT The Bishop said:

I note that the Greens and Aontu manage a candidate in every seat (and Solidarity nearly so) but Labour have left several constituencies uncontested.

Another sign of the latter's decline?

Labour did not contest several constituencies in Ireland in 2016 and 2020, notably Mayo which is the weakest county for them in all Ireland. Even in 2011 they only polled 4.9% in Mayo, not even enough to reclaim election expenses.

So this is their de facto deposit then - is the threshold 5% as in the UK?

[johnloony]

Nov 18, 2024 12:14:06 GMT The Bishop said:

Nov 17, 2024 21:59:21 GMT greenhert said:

Labour did not contest several constituencies in Ireland in 2016 and 2020, notably Mayo which is the weakest county for them in all Ireland. Even in 2011 they only polled 4.9% in Mayo, not even enough to reclaim election expenses.

So this is their de facto deposit then - is the threshold 5% as in the UK?

The last time I knew (albeit that that was c. 20 years ago), in Ireland for elections to the Dáil the deposit is (was?) £300 and the threshold for retaining the deposit was 1/4 of a quota. So a single-vacancy by-election by AV would have a threshold of 12.5%, a 3-seat constituency would be 6.25%, 4-seat would be 5%, and a 5-seat constituency would be 4.17%.

[obsie]

Nov 18, 2024 13:36:23 GMT johnloony said:

Nov 18, 2024 12:14:06 GMT The Bishop said:

So this is their de facto deposit then - is the threshold 5% as in the UK?

The last time I knew (albeit that that was c. 20 years ago), in Ireland for elections to the Dáil the deposit is (was?) £300 and the threshold for retaining the deposit was 1/4 of a quota. So a single-vacancy by-election by AV would have a threshold of 12.5%, a 3-seat constituency would be 6.25%, 4-seat would be 5%, and a 5-seat constituency would be 4.17%.

The deposit is €500 but it's not the only way of getting on the ballot; you can also submit 30 statutory declarations signed by electors or a certificate of affiliation to a registered political party.

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

"Wexford-Wicklow (3) is a new constituency and has one of the most universally unpopular names of an Irish constituency ever"

I did think it was strange to have the same place named in two different constituencies. Was any alternative considered? Are there any detailed maps available for the Forum to use to suggest a better name?

[YL]

Nov 18, 2024 18:09:08 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

"Wexford-Wicklow (3) is a new constituency and has one of the most universally unpopular names of an Irish constituency ever"

I did think it was strange to have the same place named in two different constituencies. Was any alternative considered? Are there any detailed maps available for the Forum to use to suggest a better name?

www.electoralcommission.ie/maps-of-the-recommended-constituencies/

But, given the county-based naming style, I suspect the most likely alternative would have been something like Wicklow South-Wexford North, which I doubt would have been very popular either.

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

Nov 18, 2024 21:17:16 GMT YL said:

Nov 18, 2024 18:09:08 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

"Wexford-Wicklow (3) is a new constituency and has one of the most universally unpopular names of an Irish constituency ever"

I did think it was strange to have the same place named in two different constituencies. Was any alternative considered? Are there any detailed maps available for the Forum to use to suggest a better name?

www.electoralcommission.ie/maps-of-the-recommended-constituencies/

But, given the county-based naming style, I suspect the most likely alternative would have been something like Wicklow South-Wexford North, which I doubt would have been very popular either.

Fair.

[relique]

I just watched the first half of the 10 leaders debate.

What struck me most (despite the fact I thought at least one of them should not have been invited and one shouldn't have been picked as thé stand in for his party leader) was the complete fall of the greens. While they are still trying to defend their coalition government, they have their allies in coalition speaking of lowering the price of fuel and "buying cheaper energy" (which is only synonymous with more polluting energy). And they say nothing.

Apparently there is climate in the next part so maybe they'll react and try and show they stand for the environment but I don't feel as if they've got the right leader to do that. I won't bé watching though so if someone here is, feel free to give us some of your thoughts

(Sorry for the mess but I really struggle with my french phone corrections putting accents and other words when I type english words)

[irish observer]

Kildare South (4) Larger and more rural than its Northern neighbour this constituency also gains a seat at this election. Main towns are Newbridge, Kildare, Rathangan, Monasterevin, Athy and the constituency also contains the Curragh which is Ireland's main Army base and a large voting population of soldiers. The bloodstock industry is also important in this area as is farming. The area has made much of its links to St Brigid particularly recently. Known as St Brigid of Kildare to some, the woman was actually from Louth.

Interesting fact Christy Moore and his brother, Luka Bloom, hail from Athy and their mother was for a time a Councillor for the town! In case you're wondering Luka Bloom is a stage name or alias ala Emilio Estevez and Charlie Sheen who are sons of Martin Sheen who's real name is one Ramon Estevez! I can make any Irish quiz-team on the island of Ireland, political or not, fact, been there and got the t-shirt!




Current TDs: Seán O'Feargháil (Ceann Comhairle), Martin Heydon FG, Patricia Ryan elected as SF but now Independent and Cathal Berry Independent

On the face of it O'Feargháil is automatically returned to the Dáil and will re-take the FF whip so that's an automatic FF seat. That means in effect it is a 3-seater. Senator Fiona O'Loughlin is running again. She lost her seat last time out and hopes to retake it and is the party's sole candidate. Given some of the dynamics in the area I think this favours FF to make a gain.

Heydon is safe for FG and is also running on his own.

SF are in trouble. To be blunt Ryan's victory was a surprise she famously went on holidays during the last fortnight of the contest and still won a testament to the swing in her party's favour. Now she has been deselected and her own cumann have now quit in support of her and gone Independent. This will damage the SF vote certainly here. The party has selected Cllr Shona Ni Raghallaigh instead who was first elected in June. I think their seat is in danger.

Dr Cathal Berry is running again as an Independent. A former Army Ranger he is recognised as one of the few experts on Defence matters in the Dáil and has been a spokesperson for better pay and conditions for Irish soldiers and the impact of geo-political issues on Irish defence policy. I think he can hold given his profile and that he can attract transfers from other Independent candidates such as the 2 Independent Ireland candidates in the race, Cllr Tom McDonnell and anti-Government candidates.

The danger to FF not taking the SF seat comes from Labour's Senator Mark Wall based in Athy. His late father, Jack, was briefly a TD for the area and Athy remains good Labour territory. If he could retain if not increase his FPV and gain SD and GRN or other left-wing transfers he could dislodge SF especially is O'Loughlin fails to attract the transfers that Berry certainly will.

Prediction: 1FF* 1FG 1Independent (Berry) FF/Lab for the last seat.*= O'Feraghail automatically returned.

[irish observer]

Laois (3) New constituency as Laois-Offaly is now abolished. This constituency contains all of the county of Laois with the main population centre being Portlaoise and other population centres being Mountmellick, Abbeyleix, Portarlington and Stradbally, home of Electric Picnic. For UK residents Laois was once known as Queen's County and Portlaoise was originally called Maryborough after "Bloody Mary." Like Offaly Bord na Mona has historically been a major employer in these parts in developing the bogs for industrial peat production. This having ceased now re-generation and new industry in the area is key to development of this area. Again the commuter belt from Dublin stretches as part west as Laois and regular trains from Portarlington hit Dublin Heuston through Kildare every morning.



Current TDs: Sean Fleming (FF), Brian Stanley formerly SF and now Independent and Charlie Flanagan (FG) who is retiring. The 2 other TDs, Cowen and Nolan are Offaly based.

FF are running Fleming together with Austin Stack. A great name to have on any party ticket in Ireland, Austin is the son of a murdered Garda prison officer who was killed leaving Portlaoise Prison during the Troubles by the IRA. No-one has ever been brought to justice for this crime (the killing of a serving Garda used be a capital murder guilty of the death penalty at the time though not implemented following actions of a very reforming Minister of Justice CJ Haughey but kept on the statute books for murder of a garda, his own father having been one, the death penalty was abolished in a Referendum in 2002) and Stack has campaigned for justice publicly for sometime on this case. Fleming will win the seat for the party not him but he has been in FF for sometime and probably intends to run in subsequent LEs in Laois.

FG see Flanagan retire from the ticket. The former Minister has been in politics for a long-time and his father before him, Oliver J. Flanagan, represented the area from the 1940s to the 1980s. This is the first time in 80 years or so no Flanagan will be on the ballot paper in the FG interest. Hence they turn to Cllr Willie Aird a veteran poll-topper from Portlaoise who has been in politics since 1979. I favour him for seat retention.

What's that you say there is a Flanagan on the ballot? Yes Pauline Flanagan runs as an Independent but she was briefly a FF Cllr and has since quit the party and is no relative of Charlie. There are other Independents in the mix and an Independent will take the final seat here. Cllr Aisling Moran was formerly FG but was re-elected as an Independent in June. Elaine Mullally is a businesswoman running as an Independent and apparently was a founder of Independent Ireland who apparently have given her a free-run here. Then there is the candidacy of Brian Stanley who has resigned from SF, well resigned before he was going to be expelled on the basis of subsequent correspondence published in print and online media. You can read online. He was a high-profile member of the party and first won a seat for them in Portlaoise in 99 so he's been round a while. One of their Cllrs Mullins quit some months prior after being re-elected in June stating concerns over their immigration policy and only Stanley's wife, Caroline, currently is listed as a SF Cllr. We assume she'll be backing her husband though as she's not running against him for the Dáil. They have selected Maria McCormack instead. In short SF are losing a seat here the question is to what Independent? Either Stanley as Independent-Republican or possibly Mullally or Moran. It is likely to be a touchstone issue for women voters here who will decide the outcome of the last seat.

Prediction: 1FF, 1FG, 1IND.

[robert1]

I could like each of these analyses. They are superb. Instead I'll post a general thank you

[greenhert]

Nov 18, 2024 16:30:23 GMT obsie said:

Nov 18, 2024 13:36:23 GMT johnloony said:

The last time I knew (albeit that that was c. 20 years ago), in Ireland for elections to the Dáil the deposit is (was?) £300 and the threshold for retaining the deposit was 1/4 of a quota. So a single-vacancy by-election by AV would have a threshold of 12.5%, a 3-seat constituency would be 6.25%, 4-seat would be 5%, and a 5-seat constituency would be 4.17%.

The deposit is €500 but it's not the only way of getting on the ballot; you can also submit 30 statutory declarations signed by electors or a certificate of affiliation to a registered political party.

True-these additional options were instituted after the Supreme Court of Ireland declared the mandatory payment of deposits to stand in elections unconstitutional.

[relique]

Nov 19, 2024 14:07:05 GMT robert1 said:

I could like each of these analyses. They are superb. Instead I'll post a general thank you

I prefer these to what the wacko Yates is saying (I think he said Adrienne Wallace of PBP going from 1,500 votes in 2020 will take Sinn Féin's seat - from 17,500 votes of, admittedly, Kathleen Funchion -  in Carlow-Kilkenny).

Edit: a first constituency poll in Donega from TG4l. Globally that's:

SF: 35% (-10 from 2020)

FF: 25% (+5)

FG: 12% (-2)

Ind Pringle: 11% (+3)

100% Redress: 6% (new)

Aontu: 4% (+1)

With Doherty SF at 22% topping the poll, then the two FF with The Cope Gallagher at 13% and McConalogue incumbent at 12%, the second incumbent SF at 11% (the third candidate at 2%), Thomas Pringle at 11%, Charles Ward from 100% Redress at 6%, the two FG at 6%, and Aontu at 4%. The others would get 2% or less.

It would be a battle for the fourth and fifth seat between Ward 100% Redress, Pringle and the second FF. The two SF seem secure, and FG doesn't seem able to get one in the running but might help FF get two.

[CatholicLeft]

Nov 19, 2024 18:56:30 GMT relique said:

Nov 19, 2024 14:07:05 GMT robert1 said:

I could like each of these analyses. They are superb. Instead I'll post a general thank you

I prefer these to what the wacko Yates is saying (I think he said Adrienne Wallace of PBP going from 1,500 votes in 2020 will take Sinn Féin's seat - from 17,500 votes of, admittedly, Kathleen Funchion -  in Carlow-Kilkenny).

Edit: a first constituency poll in Donega from TG4l. Globally that's:

SF: 35% (-10 from 2020)

FF: 25% (+5)

FG: 12% (-2)

Ind Pringle: 11% (+3)

100% Redress: 6% (new)

Aontu: 4% (+1)

With Doherty SF at 22% topping the poll, then the two FF with The Cope Gallagher at 13% and McConalogue incumbent at 12%, the second incumbent SF at 11% (the third candidate at 2%), Thomas Pringle at 11%, Charles Ward from 100% Redress at 6%, the two FG at 6%, and Aontu at 4%. The others would get 2% or less.

It would be a battle for the fourth and fifth seat between Ward 100% Redress, Pringle and the second FF. The two SF seem secure, and FG doesn't seem able to get one in the running but might help FF get two.

Why do they conduct these polls? They always leave the pollsters with egg on their faces. Having just returned from Donegal, I am willing to put my money on 100% Redress's Cahrles Ward achieving far better than 6% in the FPV and gaining a seat.
I repeat what I have said before, look at the pols conducted in Kerry foe the last two General Elections, both of which projected that Danny Healy-Rae would receive 4% FPV and likely lose in 2020 - he received 12.6% in 2016 and 11.2% in 2020. They were TG4 polls by Ipsos MRBI.