Irish elections

[Foggy]

Nov 6, 2024 20:36:32 GMT irish observer said:

Arguably they are competing for much of the same vote and territory of the Soc Dems, now led by the photogenic Holly Cairns, from rural Cork SW. She is very telegenetic and popular.
Sinn Féin remain the main opposition. To be blunt they had an excellent NI election and got the top job there so they're King of the Castle in Belfast and should be cock of the hoop. 

Is that actually the phrase in Irish English, or are you mixing up "cock-a-hoop" with "cock of the walk"? 

Also, having Googled Holly Cairns based on your glowing description, I think you've gone a tad over the top there about her looks!

[irish observer]

Cavan-Monaghan (5) Now solely the territory of Cavan and Monaghan again as the Meath DEDs return to Meath with recent boundary changes. Typically while population is higher in Cavan than Monaghan, though there are more urban settlements in Monaghan, there have been historically more TDs from the smaller Monaghan than Cavan.





Current TDs: Niamh Smyth & Brendan Smith Both Cavan based and FF. Matt Carthy & Pauline Tully (Monaghan & Cavan) and SF and Heather Humphreys Minister FG (Monaghan) who is retiring.

Humphreys was for a long-time Constituency Secretary to hard-working Constituency TD Seymour Crawford based out of Rural Northern Castleblayney-Clones direction. The not-insignificant Protestant vote has been a key base for her that she inherited from Crawford. Monaghan County Council used elect members of the Protestant Association up until 1999 Locals. David Maxwell now running for FG is a relative of a former PA Councillor in Monaghan LEA. Also running are Cllr T.P. O'Reilly from Ballyjamesduff and Cllr Carmel Brady first elected in 2014 from the Bailieborough area. Between them they will retain the FG seat the emphasis being getting Cavan FG votes.

Carthy being based in Carrickmacross at the SE end of the constituency and a former MEP has the safest seat and better name recognition. The party also had a good LE in both Cavan and Monaghan, regaining 2 seats in the former and becoming top-dog again in Monaghan, hence the addition of former Monaghan Cathaoirleach Cathy Bennett to the ticket. Tully is a former Schoolteacher and has been in politics since 1999. I wrote about her previously at the last election as a victim of domestic violence and assault the assailant a convicted terrorist himself who was sentenced to prison. I consider this a well-balanced ticket and favour SF to hold 2 seats.

The FF ticket is the same slate as the last GE of Smith, Smyth and Senator Robbie Gallagher from Monaghan Town. Smith has been in politics since 1992 in the Dáil current Party Chairman and former front-bencher. Used be Ministerial Advisor to the late John Wilson. Niamh Smyth benefitted as Oireachtais Chair of the Inquiry into RTE which was televised into the payments of RTE top brass. Every politician loves attacking public sector broadcasting when they get the chance to especially when the fat contracts are revealed in public a la the BBC! This could boost her here as she has been second fiddle for a while. If FF retain 2 it will be these 2. Monaghan FF are in decline as witnessed in the local elections and Dáil returns of late.

Shane P. O'Reilly of Independent Ireland is one of the party's real credible targets of a break-through. Former FF Cllr and National Executive and Ogra member for decades and still in his middle 40s and a former Cathaoirleach of Cavan County Council. Accordingly he would hold recognition across both counties anyway and runs a funeral undertaking business. Sarah O'Reilly of Aontu, no relation, is also formerly FF and was actually co-opted to Niamh Smyth's seat after she was elected to the Dáil thereafter defecting to Aontu and retaining her seat twice. They have worked together, either in D'hondt, or in opposition on Cavan CC, and if as I expect Shane P. outpolls her I expect her transfers will favour him largely.

These are the main candidates as I see them.

Greens and Labour, SD aren't at the races in this constituency and no credible Independent candidate is running per declared candidates already.

The threat to the second FF or SF seat comes from Independent Ireland/Aontu with Independent Ireland considered the challenger. I see FF as the more likely target given O'Reilly's former FF roots.

[irish observer]

Sligo-Leitrim (4) Covers all of Sligo and Leitrim and parts of SW Donegal focusing on Ballyshannon and Bundoran. Sligo town is the major population centre and Leitrim is the smallest County in the state yet has the largest diaspora. Current TDs: Martin Kenny SF (Leitrim). Marian Harkin Independent (Sligo). Frank Feighan FG (Roscommon) and Marc MacSharry ex-FF now Independent (Sligo) who is retiring.




Kenny is based in the traditional Republican hotbed of Ballinamore in Leitrim and is assured of a seat. He is a SF frontbencher. His running-mate, Chris MacManus, who served as MEP until 2024 and was also a former Sligo town based Cllr is not, however. He was co-opted to the seat of Matt Carthy when he was elected to the Dáil for Cavan-Monaghan. Personally I think SF would better challenge for a second seat with Gibbons who regained a Council seat in June or Ballisodare-based Tom Healy. Historically they have favoured the MacManus family in Sligo.

Frank Feighan of FG is the party's sole candidate here. From Boyle in North Roscommon this area has left the constituency. Traditionally Leitrim votes Leitrim and he's not from Sligo either. I think this is a risky move by FG given the poor set of LE results that FG had in both Leitrim and in Sligo.

Marian Harkin, herself a former MEP for the province, should retain her seat comfortably as an Independent. Health-care, rural isolation, road issues and investment will be major issues here. Popular Independent Councillors are running this time including Marie Casserly and Michael Clarke, who was FF and is now Independent Ireland. Together with Aontu I expect these transfers to favour Harkin who is the best placed Independent to benefit from transfers.

Turning to FF. The party has opted for a 3 candidate strategy this time around largely based on the geography of the area. Edel MacSharry, a cousin of Marc's was elected to the Council in June and was selected to run for the Dáil. She has the backing of the MacSharry family including fellow relative and Cllr Tom, both relatives of former FF Minister, MEP and EU Commissioner Ray MacSharry. Former FF Senator and TD Eamon Scanlon from Ballymote in South Sligo is running again and Current FF Cathaoirleach of Leitrim County Council Paddy O'Rourke is the party's third candidate. Ballinamore based he is in the same neck of the woods as Martin Kenny so will target retention of the FF Leitrim vote to ensure internal party transfers. The party definetely will win a seat here the question is which of the FF Sligo candidates.

I give the 4 seats to Kenny, Harkin, Sligo FF and a dogfight between Feighan for last seat with nearest Sligo based challenger. Only 1 Leitrim TD.

[irish observer]

The final border constituency of Connacht-Ulster is "Donegal." A unique polity in itself worthy of several theses. Musical melody attached.



Donegal (5): All of the County bar the area around Ballyshannon and Bundoran which are now exiled with considerable regret to their near neighbour Sligo-Leitrim. Major population centre is Letterkenny home to the Institute of Technology. Lifford is basically a suburb/part of the same town as Strabane. The Gaeltacht comprises a considerable part of this constituency where agriculture and fishing remain vitally important together with industry supported through Udaras Na Gaeltachta. Cross-border issues are of critical importance here as transport to Dublin takes you through Tyrone and Monaghan hence the ROI Government's investment in the A5 Motorway. Donegal strategically co-operated with nearby Derry-Strabane at Council level and Altnagelvin in Derry is used a lot for health matters of importance.

Current TDs: Pearse Doherty and Padraig MacLochlainn of SF. Minister for Agriculture Charlie McConalogue of FF. Thomas Pringle Independent and Joe McHugh FG now Independent who is retiring.

Regarding SF Doherty is credited with building the SF organisation in Donegal largely himself. He and MacLochlainn, of an Irish traveller background, won Council seats together in 2004. Doherty had been a student at DIT in Bolton Street I think with Matt Carthy now SF TD in Cavan-Monaghan. After another good local elections both will retain their seats here and are running 3 term Cllr Noel Jordan as their third candidate. The party are targetting all Border constituencies for future growth as part of an expansion plan arising out of the NI Election success.

FF are running three candidates with McConalogue, former Minister of State and MEP Pat The Cope Gallagher and a third candidate in Claudia Kennedy. The party is assured 1 seat more than likely McConalogue whose vote will probably focus on the Letterkenny area nexus. If any parties are damaged over the MICA/Redress issue it is likely to be FF and FG here.

Pringle does have some Councillors with whom he does co-operate with and is himself a former SF member. On the left-wing of the spectrum I think on balance he can hold his seat given name recognition and work output.

FG are in trouble through McHugh's long-announced retirement. They had a poor seat of LE here in Donegal and have no obvious successor candidate. Senator Nikki Bradley is a recent co-option to the Seanad and I see the seat in trouble.

The 100% Redress Party are running Charles Ward. WTF are they you might ask? Well many unfortunate homeowners, especially in Donegal were affected by dodgy builders and defective concrete blocks and formed a campaign group seeking 100% Redress on the issue. They elected 4 Cllrs in June, Donegal style and fair play to them and their campaign. Ward is in serious contention for a seat here. Not to trivialise the matter but Tom Gildea was once elected in Donegal on an issue of stopping MMS TV Deflectors. Do we here of these anymore? No. Why? Because Bertie Ahern the Taoiseach he voted for banned them. Lesson learned there.


I give 4 seats with 2 SF 1 FF through McConaologue and Pringle. The last seat between 100% Redress and FG and I favour 100%Redress at the moment.

[irish observer]

All these predictions are subject to change and as with last GE I may make some minor changes in the last week.

[irish observer]

Mayo (5) All of the County which gains a seat to 5 at this election. Current TDs: Alan Dillon and Michael Ring both of FG, Ring is retiring. Dara Calleary of FF and Rose Conway-Walsh SF.



This leaves 2 open seats and Ring's absence from Westport creates a large vacuum. The area was once part of the electoral base of the Flynn family in West Mayo. Dara Calleary based in Ballina in North Mayo can be considered relatively safe and benefits also from Ring's absence. However, Lisa Chambers ran for the party in MNW for Europe unsuccessfully and remains in the Seanad. It is crucial for her now to make a return to the Dáil.

SF can be expected to retain a seat. Conway-Walsh's base in Erris is in the Belmullet area near the small Gaeltacht and the hotbed of the Shell to Sea Campaign and Cllr Gerry Murray of Swinford has been a member of the Council since 1999 and was first elected for FF. Between the two they are well-balanced to retain the party seat.

Alan Dillon has performed well on the PAC and is a former Mayo County footballer. Of the other 3 FG candidates Keira Keogh failed to be elected in Westport in June, Mark Duffy in Ballina is a recent defector having been re-elected as an Independent in June and Martina Jennings is the CEO of the Mayo Hospice Campaign. I would have thought they would have a Hospice in Mayo by now having had a Taoiseach from the constituency myself? I really don't know how well-balanced this ticket is here and Dillon stands out as the big name and they will suffer from Ring's absence.

Independent Councillor Patsy O'Brien topped the poll in Claremorris and is a former FG Councillor. He could be in the hunt for a seat as a result as the best placed Independent. Transfers in the game will include fellow Councillors Chris Maxwell and Paul Lawless running for Independent Ireland and Aontu respectively both recently elected in June.

In the 5 seater I favour a Independent candidate to win a seat and give it to O'Brien here. Dillon plus 1 other FG, Conway-Walsh and Calleary.

[irish observer]

Galway West (5) Unchanged since the last election. A diverse an interesting constituency containing Galway City with the University, Galway Hospital and City life with suburban Oranmore and the rural expanse of Connemara and the Aran Islands where canvassing is done as Gaeilge. This is also the home of TG4, Ireland's Irish language TV station.



The song was written by the Young Irelander, Thomas Davis, whose statue is found at College Green in front of Trinity College and remains a personal favourite.

Sitting TDs: Catherine Connolly (Leas Ceann Comhairle or Deputy Speaker) & Noel Grealish (Independents, one former Labour and one former PD respectively), Hildegarde Naughton of FG Government Chief Whip, Mairead Farrell of SF and Eamon O Cuiv FF former Minister retiring.

O Cúiv, a grandson of De Valera, the party founder retiring means that no relative of either Dev or Collins will be a member of the next Dáil for the first-time since 1922. Traditionally strong in the Irish language community his absence leaves a vacuum. Into this FF have recruited the services of former broadcaster Gráinne Seoige and City Councillor John Connolly, a teacher from Knocknacarra. O'Cuiv's vote also took in part of the city also hence the party's failure to capture a second seat in recent elections. Between them they will win a seat for the party with Connolly perhaps the favourite.

On the FG side of the house City Government Chief Whip Naughton can be assumed relatively safe. Seán Kyne her running mate from Clifden out in Connemara is a former Senator and TD. Naughton will hold for FG here.

For SF Farrell, who is a relative of Mairead Farrell, who was killed by the SAS in Gibraltar (see Death on the Rock) was a relatively surprise win of the last general election having lost her Council seat in the proceeding Local Election contest.

Catherine Connolly is high profile and was a long-term associate of the former President Michael D. Higgins when in the Labour Party. While Labour have rebuilt a base in the City at Council level a lot of this vote can be expected to favour her at Dáil level. Grealish has surprised pundits before and now remains the sole Dáil survivor of the PD party in what was a historic base for them. He is based in Oughterard east of the City. He tacked to the right on immigration late in the last Dáil term. The other interesting independent is Mike Cubbard, former Mayor of Galway City. He suffered a serious campaign of harrassment during his term as Mayor indirectly prompting the AILG (Irish LGRA) to introduce a campaign for 24 hr security protection for elected members in response to threats of physical violence and harm and surveys of members asking about threats to themselves and their mental health. Independent Ireland's candidate, Noel Thomas, is a former FF Cllr from Connemara who quit the party over their treatment of him and his colleague, Seamus Walsh, who supported local residents who opposed asylum seekers in their areas. Both left FF for the IIP and both polled strongly in Connemara in June. Thomas is now a serious contender for a seat. Remember also that Ciaran Mulooly was elected as an MEP across the MNW constituency.

Greens have Senator Pauline O'Reilly here but she won't challenge for a seat.

There is 1 seat for FF and 1 for FG so 2 Government seats. I would give Connolly a seat and then see the last 2 between Independent Ireland/Grealish/SF and Cubbard. The Lab/SD/GRN transfers will tick left as normal and keep FF and FG out of the running and their running mates may be needed to elect each other. Right-wing transfers the extent to which IFP or Aontu poll remains unclear.

[CatholicLeft]

Nov 9, 2024 0:54:34 GMT irish observer said:

Galway West (5) Unchanged since the last election. A diverse an interesting constituency containing Galway City with the University, Galway Hospital and City life with suburban Oranmore and the rural expanse of Connemara and the Aran Islands where canvassing is done as Gaeilge. This is also the home of TG4, Ireland's Irish language TV station.



The song was written by the Young Irelander, Thomas Davis, whose statue is found at College Green in front of Trinity College and remains a personal favourite.

Sitting TDs: Catherine Connolly (Leas Ceann Comhairle or Deputy Speaker) & Noel Grealish (Independents, one former Labour and one former PD respectively), Hildegarde Naughton of FG Government Chief Whip, Mairead Farrell of SF and Eamon O Cuiv FF former Minister retiring.

O Cúiv, a grandson of De Valera, the party founder retiring means that no relative of either Dev or Collins will be a member of the next Dáil for the first-time since 1922. Traditionally strong in the Irish language community his absence leaves a vacuum. Into this FF have recruited the services of former broadcaster Gráinne Seoige and City Councillor John Connolly, a teacher from Knocknacarra. O'Cuiv's vote also took in part of the city also hence the party's failure to capture a second seat in recent elections. Between them they will win a seat for the party with Connolly perhaps the favourite.

On the FG side of the house City Government Chief Whip Naughton can be assumed relatively safe. Seán Kyne her running mate from Clifden out in Connemara is a former Senator and TD. Naughton will hold for FG here.

For SF Farrell, who is a relative of Mairead Farrell, who was killed by the SAS in Gibraltar (see Death on the Rock) was a relatively surprise win of the last general election having lost her Council seat in the proceeding Local Election contest.

Catherine Connolly is high profile and was a long-term associate of the former President Michael D. Higgins when in the Labour Party. While Labour have rebuilt a base in the City at Council level a lot of this vote can be expected to favour her at Dáil level. Grealish has surprised pundits before and now remains the sole Dáil survivor of the PD party in what was a historic base for them. He is based in Oughterard east of the City. He tacked to the right on immigration late in the last Dáil term. The other interesting independent is Mike Cubbard, former Mayor of Galway City. He suffered a serious campaign of harrassment during his term as Mayor indirectly prompting the AILG (Irish LGRA) to introduce a campaign for 24 hr security protection for elected members in response to threats of physical violence and harm and surveys of members asking about threats to themselves and their mental health. Independent Ireland's candidate, Noel Thomas, is a former FF Cllr from Connemara who quit the party over their treatment of him and his colleague, Seamus Walsh, who supported local residents who opposed asylum seekers in their areas. Both left FF for the IIP and both polled strongly in Connemara in June. Thomas is now a serious contender for a seat. Remember also that Ciaran Mulooly was elected as an MEP across the MNW constituency.

Greens have Senator Pauline O'Reilly here but she won't challenge for a seat.

There is 1 seat for FF and 1 for FG so 2 Government seats. I would give Connolly a seat and then see the last 2 between Independent Ireland/Grealish/SF and Cubbard. The Lab/SD/GRN transfers will tick left as normal and keep FF and FG out of the running and their running mates may be needed to elect each other. Right-wing transfers the extent to which IFP or Aontu poll remains unclear.

Enjoying your posts, but placing the IFP and Aontu together as right-wing is somewhat disingenuous; the IFP is a far-right ethno-Nationalist party, Aontu ran foreign-born candidates in the local elections, they differ on economic policies (where Aontu is more centre-left), Europe and whether immigration should be banned (IFP) or controlled (Aontu). Also, their candidate, historian and University of Galway lecturer Padraig Lenihan, is hardly some hard-right candidate. I would think that Independent Ireland candidate, recent FF defector Cllr Noel Thomas, would be more likely to attract Aontu transfers.
Of course, it might just be that your wording in the last sentence is a bit clumsy; in which case, apologies.

[dizz]

I’m in Cork city this evening and can confirm that the roads are full of posters having travelled through Kerry, Cork North West, Cork North Central and Cork South Central.

[CatholicLeft]

This time next week, I will be visiting family in Donegal, so will have a look at the situation there.

[irish observer]

Nov 9, 2024 12:51:30 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Enjoying your posts, but placing the IFP and Aontu together as right-wing is somewhat disingenuous; the IFP is a far-right ethno-Nationalist party, Aontu ran foreign-born candidates in the local elections, they differ on economic policies (where Aontu is more centre-left), Europe and whether immigration should be banned (IFP) or controlled (Aontu). Also, their candidate, historian and University of Galway lecturer Padraig Lenihan, is hardly some hard-right candidate. I would think that Independent Ireland candidate, recent FF defector Cllr Noel Thomas, would be more likely to attract Aontu transfers.
Of course, it might just be that your wording in the last sentence is a bit clumsy; in which case, apologies.

[/quote]

Catholicleft if you analyse the MNW transfers during June which you probably have done IFP did transfer more to II than to other parties, they were the only new party on the scene first off and had concerns about immigration as well setting them apart from the rest. Aontu, regardless of the economic policy which is more akin to SF as I agree given the origins of the party's base support, also has immigration concerns but was in effect "crowded out" in this context perhaps being linked with SF. Regardless from the transfer patterns II got more transfers than the other parties. I expect a similar transfer pattern in places like Galway West where II will be ahead of both IFP and Aontu on the first count. The question is the extent of the vote but I believe they are in serious contention in Galway W, perhaps more so west of the City.

[CatholicLeft]

Nov 9, 2024 20:18:30 GMT irish observer said:

Nov 9, 2024 12:51:30 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Enjoying your posts, but placing the IFP and Aontu together as right-wing is somewhat disingenuous; the IFP is a far-right ethno-Nationalist party, Aontu ran foreign-born candidates in the local elections, they differ on economic policies (where Aontu is more centre-left), Europe and whether immigration should be banned (IFP) or controlled (Aontu). Also, their candidate, historian and University of Galway lecturer Padraig Lenihan, is hardly some hard-right candidate. I would think that Independent Ireland candidate, recent FF defector Cllr Noel Thomas, would be more likely to attract Aontu transfers.
Of course, it might just be that your wording in the last sentence is a bit clumsy; in which case, apologies.

Catholicleft if you analyse the MNW transfers during June which you probably have done IFP did transfer more to II than to other parties, they were the only new party on the scene first off and had concerns about immigration as well setting them apart from the rest. Aontu, regardless of the economic policy which is more akin to SF as I agree given the origins of the party's base support, also has immigration concerns but was in effect "crowded out" in this context perhaps being linked with SF. Regardless from the transfer patterns II got more transfers than the other parties. I expect a similar transfer pattern in places like Galway West where II will be ahead of both IFP and Aontu on the first count. The question is the extent of the vote but I believe they are in serious contention in Galway W, perhaps more so west of the City.[/quote]

irish observer - I have, as you point out, done analysis on the transfers, and I agree with you - my issue was somewhat different.
The retirement of Éamon Ó Cuív makes this a fascinating constituency, and I will be interested who the poll topper will be this time. I don't expect the IFP FPV to be that high, and it may be that Aontu is higher, but, in the final shake out, Noel Thomas is in with a shot for II, although he doesn't have the profile of Ciaran Mulooly, whose long stint as the RTE Midlands correspondent was massive bonus across the disparate communities of MNW.

[irish observer]

Galway East (4) Gains a seat from the last election. In effect the old Galway East constituency before the creation of Roscommon-Galway though Ballinasloe town remains in the latter constituency. Rural in nature of all the market towns like Tuam, Gort, Portumna and Loughrea, Athenry is the most famous thanks to the legendary song-writer, Pete St John and its legendary hurlers. The Paddy Reilly version of the song, written by Pete is the best.



Sitting TDs: Minister for Disability Anne Rabbitte of FF; Seán Canney Independent and Ciarán Cannon of FG who is retiring. Interestingly Cannon was the last ever Leader of the PDs, interesting Irish political question there. So there are two vacant seats.

Canney hails from Tuam and is a former Minister of State at the Office of Public Works where he spent a lot of time on Flooding Plans. He actually came into local politics as a co-optee for his brother-in-law, Paddy McHugh, a one-time Galway East TD and a former FF Cllr. Historically Tuam has been difficult territory for the party. After McHugh's defeat Canney ran at the next election and won the seat back and retain it since then. He should comfortably retain it. The Tuam area was also the former base of FG heavyweight Paul Connaughton Snr also.

Rabbitte is joined on the FF ticket by Albert Dolan a Cllr for Athenry-Oranmore. Aged 25 he became the youngest ever Cathaiorleach of Galway County in June and was first elected at the age of 20. An accountant, he may challenge Rabbitte for the FF seat here or otherwise they fight cats and dogs to both keep in the race.

FG are running Tuam based Cllr Peter Roche, Cllr Clodagh Higgins of Galway City and Niamh Madden from Portumna an Estate Agent. The divide is three-fold. Madden is new and female and Portumna is where Anne Rabbitte lives, Roche is rural-based and targets the same territory as Canney's main base in effect and Higgins is aiming at the Eastern Galway city suburbs and is a former Mayor. However, her candidacy surprises me as geographically she's well outside the City area. FG definetely have one seat here and on balance I favour Roche.

SF were within a few votes of displacing FF at the last election in the old 3 seat constituency through Louis O'Hara. He's running again and is now a Councillor in Athenry-Oranmore though he did not poll very highly on FPV terms.

Michael Fitzmaurice, one of the big beasts of Independent Ireland is from Williamstown, a very small town on the way to Ballymoe and Dunmore on the Tuam road. He used represent this area and considered changing constituencies. He's staying in Roscommon-Galway. They have elected Cllrs in other parts of the constituency including Declan Geraghty of Ballinasloe who is running. I think he could take the last seat if he gets the transfers.

Prediction: 1FG, 1FF, 1Independent, Independent Ireland/SF/FF for the last.

[irish observer]

Roscommon-Galway (3): Thankfully now all of Roscommon is now in the same constituency again. The part of Galway that remains is effectively a salient around the town of Ballinasloe.



Current TDs: Michael Fitzmaurice (Independent Ireland); Denis Naughton Independent who is retiring and Claire Kerrane SF.

Fitzmaurice is a lock for a seat, nailed on certainty.

Denis Naugton was formerly FG, his dad Liam was a former FG Senator. However while he quit the party his brother, John, remained a Cllr in Roscommon. The given assumption was that when Denis retired he would support and endorse John to run for the Dail to retake the FG seat here. FG were decimated here over Roscommon Hospital closure at local level and also at Dáil level with Frank Feighan now running in neighbouring Sligo-Leitrim. John Naughton died after being selected and Senator Aisling Dolan was then added as a replacement having lost at convention.

FF's position is not pretty. They used have 2 seats here; a product of family dynasties the Dohertys and the Leydens. However the Doherty's didn't really encourage others to run at Council level and North Roscommon became a very poor organisational area for FF. Both families are now gone from FF politics and Senator Eugene Murphy who lost his Dáil seat at the last election was beaten at convention. The Strokestown native is now running as an Independent. Dr Martin Daly a Galway based GP was the choice of Party HQ. Interestingly Murphy beat HQ before when they imposed former Roscommon Goalie Shane "Cake" Curran on the ticket with him and defeated him in 2016. He is now trying to do the same running as an Independent. Either way its bad for FF here.

Claire Kerrane of SF is running again. Aged 29 and a front-bench spokesperson for her party she benefits from the boundary changes as more Roscommon territory is in the constituency and from the other party's divisions here.

Prediction: 1 IIP, 1FG, 1SF.

[Arthur Figgis]

I hope Longford-Westmeath will have a Joe Dolan tune attached to it. According to Spotify he was my most listened to artist in 2022. He’s since been overtaken by Big Tom. On a Monday last September I visited the Craggy Island parochial house, and the statues of the aforementioned stars in Mullingar and Castleblayney- the three real Irish cultural icons. If nationalism spoke about those things more, maybe I wouldn’t be a Unionist.

[irish observer]

Nov 10, 2024 0:36:57 GMT Arthur Figgis said:

I hope Longford-Westmeath will have a Joe Dolan tune attached to it. According to Spotify he was my most listened to artist in 2022. He’s since been overtaken by Big Tom. On a Monday last September I visited the Craggy Island parochial house, and the statues of the aforementioned stars in Mullingar and Castleblayney- the three real Irish cultural icons. If nationalism spoke about those things more, maybe I wouldn’t be a Unionist.

I've been trying to convert posters like you for a long time Arthur given our mutual interest in Tayto crisps from some years ago. Joe will certainly feature!

[CatholicLeft]

Nov 10, 2024 0:08:34 GMT irish observer said:

Roscommon-Galway (3): Thankfully now all of Roscommon is now in the same constituency again. The part of Galway that remains is effectively a salient around the town of Ballinasloe.



Current TDs: Michael Fitzmaurice (Independent Ireland); Denis Naughton Independent who is retiring and Claire Kerrane SF.

Fitzmaurice is a lock for a seat, nailed on certainty.

Denis Naugton was formerly FG, his dad Liam was a former FG Senator. However while he quit the party his brother, John, remained a Cllr in Roscommon. The given assumption was that when Denis retired he would support and endorse John to run for the Dail to retake the FG seat here. FG were decimated here over Roscommon Hospital closure at local level and also at Dáil level with Frank Feighan now running in neighbouring Sligo-Leitrim. John Naughton died after being selected and Senator Aisling Dolan was then added as a replacement having lost at convention.

FF's position is not pretty. They used have 2 seats here; a product of family dynasties the Dohertys and the Leydens. However the Doherty's didn't really encourage others to run at Council level and North Roscommon became a very poor organisational area for FF. Both families are now gone from FF politics and Senator Eugene Murphy who lost his Dáil seat at the last election was beaten at convention. The Strokestown native is now running as an Independent. Dr Martin Daly a Galway based GP was the choice of Party HQ. Interestingly Murphy beat HQ before when they imposed former Roscommon Goalie Shane "Cake" Curran on the ticket with him and defeated him in 2016. He is now trying to do the same running as an Independent. Either way its bad for FF here.

Claire Kerrane of SF is running again. Aged 29 and a front-bench spokesperson for her party she benefits from the boundary changes as more Roscommon territory is in the constituency and from the other party's divisions here.

Prediction: 1 IIP, 1FG, 1SF.

Just an aside, of little political merit - 6 of my siblings were born in Strokestown. Last time I was in Ireland, I popped in to say hello. After, I rang Mum to tell her and she asked:
"Did you put flowers on Mena's grave?"
"No Mum, who is Mena?"
"You didn't put flowers on Mena's grave?"
"No."
"How can I tell people you were in Strokestown and didn't put flowers on Mena's?"
"Don't tell them."
"I can't tell people you haven't been to Strokestown, when you have...I can't believe you didn't put flowers on Mena's grave."
"Mum, seriously, who is Mena?"

Oh the logic of mothers.

[johnloony]

Nov 10, 2024 14:19:29 GMT CatholicLeft said:

[Just an aside, of little political merit - 6 of my siblings were born in Strokestown. Last time I was in Ireland, I popped in to say hello. After, I rang Mum to tell her and she asked:
"Did you put flowers on Mena's grave?"
"No Mum, who is Mena?"
"You didn't put flowers on Mena's grave?"
"No."
"How can I tell people you were in Strokestown and didn't put flowers on Mena's?"
"Don't tell them."
"I can't tell people you haven't been to Strokestown, when you have...I can't believe you didn't put flowers on Mena's grave."
"Mum, seriously, who is Mena?"

Oh the logic of mothers.

Did you ever find out who Mena was? And if so, who was she?

[irish observer]

Turning to Munster we start with the homeland of the O'Brien's of Thomond: Clare (4) The constituency is unchanged and comprises all of the county. Ennis is the main town and a growing-population around Shannon Airport is effectively a suburb of Limerick City. The Burren and The Cliffs of Moher are found here and there is much beautiful tourism. West Clare with centres such as Kilrush, Kilkee, Ennisytmon etc is much more rural than the Ennis area.



Famous song of emigration by the writer Ralph McTell himself, inspired by a conversation with a young Irish builder in London.

Current TDs: Cathal Crowe (FF), Joe Carey (FG) who is retiring, Michael McNamara Independent now an MEP and also retiring and Violet-Ann Wynne Independent and elected for SF.

To put it mildly there is a lot of flux going on here with retirements etc.

FF are running Cathal Crowe and Senator Timmy Dooley who lost out at the last GE. I favour him to regain his seat here due to profile and workload. Crowe was first elected a Councillor at the age of 21 then the youngest in the state and secured election to the Dáil at the last election. The third candidate is Cllr Rita McInerney who topped the poll in Kilrush in June and ran in the last GE. A good ticket.

FG are running Leonora Carey, a sister of Joe Carey the retiring TD, Dr Tom Nolan from Kilkee (who may have once been a Cllr in that area) and Cllr Joe Cooney the poll-topper in Killaloe. They should retain the party seat between them. Possibly favouring Leonora Carey as the organisation backed her at Convention.

I give Wynne no chance of seat retention. Left SF some years ago after various wacky revelations. Senator Roisin Garvey of the Greens is their Deputy Leader. In fairness she did very well winning a LE seat for the party in 2019, her dad was a former FF Cllr. But realistically she will not be in the final mix for a seat. Eddie Punch of Independent Ireland contested the Euro Elections in Ireland South unsuccessfully and is a former big beast in the IFA. SF are now running Cllr Donna McGettigan who was re-elected from their Shannon base in June. She had been co-opted originally. At the start of the Troubles several people from the North who moved South settled in Shannon.

Prediction: 2FF 1FG and 1SF. That's how I see it at the moment.

[CatholicLeft]

Nov 10, 2024 15:48:49 GMT johnloony said:

Nov 10, 2024 14:19:29 GMT CatholicLeft said:

[Just an aside, of little political merit - 6 of my siblings were born in Strokestown. Last time I was in Ireland, I popped in to say hello. After, I rang Mum to tell her and she asked:
"Did you put flowers on Mena's grave?"
"No Mum, who is Mena?"
"You didn't put flowers on Mena's grave?"
"No."
"How can I tell people you were in Strokestown and didn't put flowers on Mena's?"
"Don't tell them."
"I can't tell people you haven't been to Strokestown, when you have...I can't believe you didn't put flowers on Mena's grave."
"Mum, seriously, who is Mena?"

Oh the logic of mothers.

Did you ever find out who Mena was? And if so, who was she?

She was a friend of my Mum's who died decades ago. Sad story actually, cancer took her leaving a young family. If I'd have known, I would definitely have put flowers on the grave.