CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,729
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Post by CatholicLeft on Nov 27, 2024 20:07:08 GMT
Last poll before Friday:
FF: 21%
SF: 20% (+2)
FG: 20% (-2)
SD: 6%
LAB: 4% (+1)
INDIRL: 4% (+1)
GP: 4%
AON: 4% (-1)
PBP-S: 2%
INDs & Others: 14% (-3)
+/- vs 1-7 Nov/Samh 2024
Via
@redcresearch
/
@businessposthq
D: 22-26 Nov/Samh 2024
S: ~1,000
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Post by greenhert on Nov 27, 2024 21:06:56 GMT
Going around Connacht-Ulster again Donegal(5): 2SF 1MICA 2FF - Bizarre as it may seem Pat the Cope could get back in possibly benefitting from FG collapse here and Pringle loss of votes. Cavan-Monaghan (5): 2FF 2SF 1FG - Don't know if the other parties can break the stranglehold hear like SF in '97. Sligo-Leitrim (4): 1SF 1FF 1IND IIIP - Think FG will lose out here due to geography and also 1 candidate and Clarke a good recruit for IIP. Mayo (5): 2FG 2FF 1SF - Giving FF the other seat and writing off exFG independent here. Galway West (5): 2IND IIIP 1FF 1FG - SF could lose out here. Galway East (4): 1FF 1FG 1IND 1IIP - Gain goes to IIP. Roscommon-Galway (3): 1IIP 1SF 1FF Clare (4): 2FF 1FG 1SF Kerry (5): 2IND 1FF 1FG 1SF Limerick West (3) 1FF 1FG 1IIP
Limerick East (4): 2FF 1FG 1SFTipp North (3): 1LAB 1IND 1FF Tipp South (3): 2IND 1FG Waterford (4): 1SF 1FF 1FG 1IND Cork East (4): 1FF 1FG 1SF 1IND Cork NC (5): 1FF 1FG 1SF 1IIP 1LAB Cork SC (5): 2FF 1FG 1SF 1IND Cork SW (3): 1SD 1FF 1IIP Cork NW (3): 2FF 1FG You surely mean Limerick County and Limerick City? Also, it would be helpful to state which Independents even when it seems obvious (for example, there is no real doubt that both Healy-Raes will be re-elected in Kerry), especially since 3 Independent TDs are not standing for re-election this year (Denis Naughten, Marc MacSharry, and Peter Fitzpatrick). |
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Post by greenhert on Nov 27, 2024 21:11:54 GMT
Interestingly this poll did not include Independent Ireland candidate Tom McEllistrim, who was a Fianna Fail TD for part of this constituency (Kerry North-Limerick West) from 2002 to 2011, even though Independent Ireland is polling well enough to win seats in the Dail. Even if he does not win he will prove a real spanner in the works for Fianna Fail and Fine Gael here. |
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Post by greenhert on Nov 27, 2024 21:23:49 GMT
No, they really don't. They really like to screw up psephologist's brains. FG and FF arguably do though. 2 referenda on that issue were run under Fianna Fail governments in 1959 and 1968, both were decisively in favour of retaining STV. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Nov 27, 2024 21:50:09 GMT
Last poll before Friday: FF: 21% SF: 20% (+2) FG: 20% (-2) SD: 6% LAB: 4% (+1) INDIRL: 4% (+1) GP: 4% AON: 4% (-1) PBP-S: 2% INDs & Others: 14% (-3) +/- vs 1-7 Nov/Samh 2024 Via @redcresearch / @businessposthq D: 22-26 Nov/Samh 2024 S: ~1,000 this has got the media very excited. FG has fumbled the ball. Typical response by the British media ofc |
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Post by dizz on Nov 27, 2024 23:16:56 GMT
Going around Connacht-Ulster again Donegal(5): 2SF 1MICA 2FF - Bizarre as it may seem Pat the Cope could get back in possibly benefitting from FG collapse here and Pringle loss of votes. Cavan-Monaghan (5): 2FF 2SF 1FG - Don't know if the other parties can break the stranglehold hear like SF in '97. Sligo-Leitrim (4): 1SF 1FF 1IND IIIP - Think FG will lose out here due to geography and also 1 candidate and Clarke a good recruit for IIP. Mayo (5): 2FG 2FF 1SF - Giving FF the other seat and writing off exFG independent here. Galway West (5): 2IND IIIP 1FF 1FG - SF could lose out here. Galway East (4): 1FF 1FG 1IND 1IIP - Gain goes to IIP. Roscommon-Galway (3): 1IIP 1SF 1FF Clare (4): 2FF 1FG 1SF Kerry (5): 2IND 1FF 1FG 1SF Limerick West (3) 1FF 1FG 1IIP
Limerick East (4): 2FF 1FG 1SFTipp North (3): 1LAB 1IND 1FF Tipp South (3): 2IND 1FG Waterford (4): 1SF 1FF 1FG 1IND Cork East (4): 1FF 1FG 1SF 1IND Cork NC (5): 1FF 1FG 1SF 1IIP 1LAB Cork SC (5): 2FF 1FG 1SF 1IND Cork SW (3): 1SD 1FF 1IIP Cork NW (3): 2FF 1FG You surely mean Limerick County and Limerick City? Also, it would be helpful to state which Independents even when it seems obvious (for example, there is no real doubt that both Healy-Raes will be re-elected in Kerry), especially since 3 Independent TDs are not standing for re-election this year (Denis Naughten, Marc MacSharry, and Peter Fitzpatrick). There really is no pleasing some..... irish observer - many thanks for the great effort put into these posts (10 to 15 hours I would reckon??) when we are barely worthy of it. It must have felt at times quite exhausting to complete the whole journey around the 26* but you did it - thanks. *pedant alert  |
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Post by dizz on Nov 27, 2024 23:27:43 GMT
So, I've been in Ireland for over a week and the forthcoming election hit us from the first night in Rathgar where Kate O'Connell is running as an independent in Dublin Bay South (her pharmacy has her candidacy splashed on it!) and, whilst there was less action in Wexford, in Kerry, where we are for the next 3 weeks, there is plenty! KerrySo far declared candidates: 2 Healy-Rae's 3 FF (!) 1 FG (!) 1 SF (!) 1 Lab 1 Green/Aontu/PBP/2 further Independents (one the son of an FF TD) /Irish Freedom Party, Present TDs: 2 Healy-Rae's, 1 FF, 1 FG and 1 SF with (just) the FG TD retiring. On arrival in Killarney, there were only FG and 1 FF leaflets through the door with the FF one much more local/specific. On the N22 there are parked lorries backing the same FF person and Danny Healy-Rae (Killarney voters were asked to preference him first in 2020) and in town 2 of the FF candidates have election offices. I don't see Lab (with a candidate some way from their remaining Tralee 'strongerhold') or the others put in the one line above getting enough traction so, if SF and FG are only going for 1 seat each, then it is most likely just FF pushing for a second TD at the expense of one of the other parties/Healy-Rae's i.e. there are 7 bigger candidates (including all 3 FFs) going for 5 seats with the most likely outcome being no change from the present. Of course it would be great to see 1 FF edge out either a Healy-Rae or the SF but the major battle is likely to be between the 3 of them to come ahead of the other 2. Borrowing the profile from Dizz. Kerry remains a 5 seater and takes in all of the Kingdom of Kerry where Kerrygold is made and the home of the Lakes of Killarney, the Ring of Kerry, Sneem (liked by de Gaulle) and Killarney (liked by Queen Victoria), Dingle and the Kerry Gaeltacht, the Puc Fair, Sliabh Luacra and of course the International Rose of Tralee festival or The Lovely Girls contest as shown on Fr Ted! "Now Ted!" Your right: "They all have lovely bottoms." Expect the Healy-Rae's to divide the constituency in two like before for FPV votes and they have a Council organisation to back them up. Also give SF a seat. Stronger in North Kerry than South, reverse for the Healy-Raes. Geography is key to Kerry voting patterns as it used be 2 three-seaters here. With the Griffin retirement FG have chosen former GAA player John Paul O'Shea. This is a proven strategy here as previously they chose Jimmy Deenihan in the 1980s who had a long career in Kerry politics. FF will take a seat through Foley. Michael Cahill is a long-serving Councillor and will poll well, better than Kelleher, who's husband is a former Mayor of Kerry. But I don't think the party can take a second seat here. Tom McEllistrim couldn't return to the Council so don't think he will feature much here in the Count. Prediction: No change. 2IND, 1FF, 1SF, 1FG. Here's my Kerry You Tube: The Tae Man: Eamon Kelly was born there. |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Nov 27, 2024 23:45:07 GMT
Louth (5) Remains a 5 seat constituency but loses the territory of the East Meath coast back to Meath East. Currently Drogheda has a larger population than Dundalk, though not by much. Dundalk remains the County town and soccer rivalry between the towns is as unique as ever. Outside of Kildare North this is the most urbanised Irish county, Kildare is more urbanised than Louth now, and constituency other than the Dublin ones. Most of the elected TDs will have an electoral presence in the main population centres. After Drogheda and Dundalk, Ardee is next followed by Dunleer. Settlements vary in size throughout the county depending on location, Blackrock is in effect a dormitory town of Dundalk and Termonfeckin and areas such as Baltray are effectively now commuter areas of Drogheda which has grown considerably due to the expansion of Greater Dublin. The Boyne Valley remains a beautiful tourism area to see as in Meath but tourists shouldn't just go to Drogheda and see the Boyne Battle site and not go further North. Ardee, in Irish, Ath Fhirdia or the Ford of Ferdia, takes its origins from An Táin which is commemorated in Sculpture in the Town though more signs of this are further north in Dundalk or Dén Dealgan or Dealga's Fort which also may relate to the times of An Táin. Indeed the Crest of Dundalk refers to Cúchulainn, the Hound of Ulster, who is commemorated on the Crest of the town proudly as "Where Brave Cúchulainn was Born." This site is preserved and today is known as Cúchulainn's Castle or Castletown Mount. Various street-names, estate names including private and public housing commemorate the legend which is a tourist trail in itself. Part of the Boyne battle was also fought on the Northern side of Dundalk as was the Battle of Faughart where Edward Bruce, Robert Bruce's brother was killed. The Bruce Invasion was an interesting period of Irish History and a sub-set of the Scottish resistance to Longshanks and Edward II in opening up a Second Front in Ireland. It has been recognised by the Ulster-Scots Agency as important to commemorate. The graveyard where his headstone lies also contains various uninvestigated historical artefacts and mounds associated with St Brigid, whose Shrine is found west of the Graveyard near the Battlesite and overlooking Dundalk and the Plain of Muirhevna where the Táin battles were fought. It is well worth a visit and is so near the Ring of Gullion also in South Armagh and the Mountains of Mourne. The Cooley Peninsula is also a place of at times stark and bleak natural beauty, great for hillwalking, orienteering and Carlingford if in France would have become a tourist mecca in the 1980s. This is only touching a sketchbook here but there is really lots to see its just sometimes the Tourism Operates only send the Americans for example to Dublin, Kerry and perhaps Galway. Marketing has to be done better. Regarding the music obviously The Corrs are from Dundalk, Dermot O'Brien was from Ardee and so Eamonn Campbell of The Dubliners was from Drogheda. Fairwell to Carlingford could be considered a Louth anthem sung here by Tommy Maken "The Bard of Armagh." Current TDs: Ruairi O Murchu (SF) and Ged Nash (Lab). Imelda Munster (SF), Fergus O'Dowd (FG) and Peter Fitzpatrick (Independent) are all retiring. Big change here then. An obvious vacuum as 3 TDs were elected the last time in Drogheda and now 1 remains in Nash hence I give him a seat as the only sitting Drogheda TD who will likely benefit also from proportion of personal vote loss of the other 2 incumbents. Imelda Munster in stepping down has cleared the way for a smooth succession for Cllr Joanna Byrne of SF. She was co-opted to her Council seat when she became a TD years ago and has been re-elected twice since and is now Chair of Drogheda United Soccer Club who have avoided relegation last weekend and also won the FAI Cup (Irish FA Cup). Big deal in Drogheda and very good PR for Joanna and South Louth SF which should help her retain the Drogheda SF seat. I consider the Dundalk SF seat safe for O Murchu. This was originally Arthur Morgan's seat and was then succeeded by Adams who then retired in Ruairi's favour. This seat won't be lost. The first SF TD elected here before Morgan was a Hunger-Striker called Paddy Agnew who was from Dundalk. His election together with Kieran Doherty in Cavan-Monaghan denied FF under CJ Haughey an overall majority in that election. SF added on a 3rd candidate before close of poll, North Louth Cllr Antoin Watters who has exceeded the quota at his last 2 local elections and who is from Cooley. Long-term the party have great aspirations to win a 3rd seat in Louth perhaps before they achieve it in Cavan-Monaghan due to demographics, geography and greater urbanisation. However, I don't think they will achieve it on this occasion. Currently they are the largest party on the Council again since June. The loss of the East Meath territory likely disadvantaged South Louth candidates the most. Accordingly is it possible to elect 3 North Louth as against 2 South this time? For FG Cllr Paula Butterly is the Southern Candidate but is from Togher outside Dunleer. A rural area quite different from Drogheda in population make-up. Senator John McGahon who failed to make it at the last Dáil election where Fitzpatrick prevailed is hoping to take the FG seat here. Fitzpatrick was FG before defecting to Independent over the issue of abortion. However from a business background and the then Louth GAA Manager at the time he was recruited into the party and it is possible that many of his supporters are personal to him. Controversy in the media which was also raised during the first leaders debate has affected the candidature of McGahon over a case from several years ago. FF have chosen 2 women, Senator Erin McGreehan, a former Cllr who won the selection convention comprehensively and Alison Comyn who was subsequently added on by HQ in Drogheda. McGreehan comes from a small-farming background in the traditional FF Cooley area and has an Office in Dundalk. Comyn is currently a journalist in Drogheda and has worked with SKY, RTE, BBC, UTV and CH4. A talented speaker she is a good addition to the ticket. The party lost their traditional seat at the last election which they had held since 1927 when Frank Aiken was first elected under the party banner. He represented the area for 46 years often as a Minister and also at the United Nations. They hope to regain it at this election. Historically the strongest base for the FF vote and indeed where Aiken started out was in North Louth and if FF prevail I think it will be McGreehan. Cllr Kevin Callan current Cathaoirleach of LCC and a former Mayor of Drogheda is running as an Independent. A barrister and in effect a populist he quit FG over water charges and has been Independent since. He has the support of a number of other Independent Cllrs supporting him to win a seat essentially in the Drogheda area. Other candidates to mention include Cllr Marianne Butler of the Greens, a 3 term Cllr I expect her to poll well especially in Dundalk but not take a seat. Hermann Kelly ran for Irish Freedom Party in Europe in June, also their Leader. Tracy O'Hanlon, one of their candidates in the Locals is now running as an Independent as a result. Thomas Clare from Dunleer a former FF Cllr from some time ago is also running. Ryan McKeown in his 20s is with Independent Ireland. Niall McCreanor ran in Ardee in June for SD. Michael O'Dowd of Aontu, a former Cllr himself for FG is a brother of Fergus O'Dowd the former FG TD. Prediction: 2SF, 1LAB, 1FG, 1FF/1ND (Callan) I see it between FF and Callan for the last seat at the moment, I could be wrong but geography and transfers might tell the tale. Louth could have its own Rahanna box yet! I’ll be in this constituency in 10 days. On a minor diversion from Belfast to a football match in the ever-republican village of Loughgall. Despite being able to see the Cooley peninsula from the ‘beach’ near my granny and granda’s old house, I’ve never really been. So fixing that, as I have a car for the weekend. Annoyingly but unsurprisingly the ferry doesn’t run over the winter so I can’t go there via seeing them behind the church, and the fabulous breakfasts at Cunningham’s on Newcastle St. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Nov 28, 2024 0:06:41 GMT
Louth (5) Remains a 5 seat constituency but loses the territory of the East Meath coast back to Meath East. Currently Drogheda has a larger population than Dundalk, though not by much. Dundalk remains the County town and soccer rivalry between the towns is as unique as ever. Outside of Kildare North this is the most urbanised Irish county, Kildare is more urbanised than Louth now, and constituency other than the Dublin ones. Most of the elected TDs will have an electoral presence in the main population centres. After Drogheda and Dundalk, Ardee is next followed by Dunleer. Settlements vary in size throughout the county depending on location, Blackrock is in effect a dormitory town of Dundalk and Termonfeckin and areas such as Baltray are effectively now commuter areas of Drogheda which has grown considerably due to the expansion of Greater Dublin. The Boyne Valley remains a beautiful tourism area to see as in Meath but tourists shouldn't just go to Drogheda and see the Boyne Battle site and not go further North. Ardee, in Irish, Ath Fhirdia or the Ford of Ferdia, takes its origins from An Táin which is commemorated in Sculpture in the Town though more signs of this are further north in Dundalk or Dén Dealgan or Dealga's Fort which also may relate to the times of An Táin. Indeed the Crest of Dundalk refers to Cúchulainn, the Hound of Ulster, who is commemorated on the Crest of the town proudly as "Where Brave Cúchulainn was Born." This site is preserved and today is known as Cúchulainn's Castle or Castletown Mount. Various street-names, estate names including private and public housing commemorate the legend which is a tourist trail in itself. Part of the Boyne battle was also fought on the Northern side of Dundalk as was the Battle of Faughart where Edward Bruce, Robert Bruce's brother was killed. The Bruce Invasion was an interesting period of Irish History and a sub-set of the Scottish resistance to Longshanks and Edward II in opening up a Second Front in Ireland. It has been recognised by the Ulster-Scots Agency as important to commemorate. The graveyard where his headstone lies also contains various uninvestigated historical artefacts and mounds associated with St Brigid, whose Shrine is found west of the Graveyard near the Battlesite and overlooking Dundalk and the Plain of Muirhevna where the Táin battles were fought. It is well worth a visit and is so near the Ring of Gullion also in South Armagh and the Mountains of Mourne. The Cooley Peninsula is also a place of at times stark and bleak natural beauty, great for hillwalking, orienteering and Carlingford if in France would have become a tourist mecca in the 1980s. This is only touching a sketchbook here but there is really lots to see its just sometimes the Tourism Operates only send the Americans for example to Dublin, Kerry and perhaps Galway. Marketing has to be done better. Regarding the music obviously The Corrs are from Dundalk, Dermot O'Brien was from Ardee and so Eamonn Campbell of The Dubliners was from Drogheda. Fairwell to Carlingford could be considered a Louth anthem sung here by Tommy Maken "The Bard of Armagh." Current TDs: Ruairi O Murchu (SF) and Ged Nash (Lab). Imelda Munster (SF), Fergus O'Dowd (FG) and Peter Fitzpatrick (Independent) are all retiring. Big change here then. An obvious vacuum as 3 TDs were elected the last time in Drogheda and now 1 remains in Nash hence I give him a seat as the only sitting Drogheda TD who will likely benefit also from proportion of personal vote loss of the other 2 incumbents. Imelda Munster in stepping down has cleared the way for a smooth succession for Cllr Joanna Byrne of SF. She was co-opted to her Council seat when she became a TD years ago and has been re-elected twice since and is now Chair of Drogheda United Soccer Club who have avoided relegation last weekend and also won the FAI Cup (Irish FA Cup). Big deal in Drogheda and very good PR for Joanna and South Louth SF which should help her retain the Drogheda SF seat. I consider the Dundalk SF seat safe for O Murchu. This was originally Arthur Morgan's seat and was then succeeded by Adams who then retired in Ruairi's favour. This seat won't be lost. The first SF TD elected here before Morgan was a Hunger-Striker called Paddy Agnew who was from Dundalk. His election together with Kieran Doherty in Cavan-Monaghan denied FF under CJ Haughey an overall majority in that election. SF added on a 3rd candidate before close of poll, North Louth Cllr Antoin Watters who has exceeded the quota at his last 2 local elections and who is from Cooley. Long-term the party have great aspirations to win a 3rd seat in Louth perhaps before they achieve it in Cavan-Monaghan due to demographics, geography and greater urbanisation. However, I don't think they will achieve it on this occasion. Currently they are the largest party on the Council again since June. The loss of the East Meath territory likely disadvantaged South Louth candidates the most. Accordingly is it possible to elect 3 North Louth as against 2 South this time? For FG Cllr Paula Butterly is the Southern Candidate but is from Togher outside Dunleer. A rural area quite different from Drogheda in population make-up. Senator John McGahon who failed to make it at the last Dáil election where Fitzpatrick prevailed is hoping to take the FG seat here. Fitzpatrick was FG before defecting to Independent over the issue of abortion. However from a business background and the then Louth GAA Manager at the time he was recruited into the party and it is possible that many of his supporters are personal to him. Controversy in the media which was also raised during the first leaders debate has affected the candidature of McGahon over a case from several years ago. FF have chosen 2 women, Senator Erin McGreehan, a former Cllr who won the selection convention comprehensively and Alison Comyn who was subsequently added on by HQ in Drogheda. McGreehan comes from a small-farming background in the traditional FF Cooley area and has an Office in Dundalk. Comyn is currently a journalist in Drogheda and has worked with SKY, RTE, BBC, UTV and CH4. A talented speaker she is a good addition to the ticket. The party lost their traditional seat at the last election which they had held since 1927 when Frank Aiken was first elected under the party banner. He represented the area for 46 years often as a Minister and also at the United Nations. They hope to regain it at this election. Historically the strongest base for the FF vote and indeed where Aiken started out was in North Louth and if FF prevail I think it will be McGreehan. Cllr Kevin Callan current Cathaoirleach of LCC and a former Mayor of Drogheda is running as an Independent. A barrister and in effect a populist he quit FG over water charges and has been Independent since. He has the support of a number of other Independent Cllrs supporting him to win a seat essentially in the Drogheda area. Other candidates to mention include Cllr Marianne Butler of the Greens, a 3 term Cllr I expect her to poll well especially in Dundalk but not take a seat. Hermann Kelly ran for Irish Freedom Party in Europe in June, also their Leader. Tracy O'Hanlon, one of their candidates in the Locals is now running as an Independent as a result. Thomas Clare from Dunleer a former FF Cllr from some time ago is also running. Ryan McKeown in his 20s is with Independent Ireland. Niall McCreanor ran in Ardee in June for SD. Michael O'Dowd of Aontu, a former Cllr himself for FG is a brother of Fergus O'Dowd the former FG TD. Prediction: 2SF, 1LAB, 1FG, 1FF/1ND (Callan) I see it between FF and Callan for the last seat at the moment, I could be wrong but geography and transfers might tell the tale. Louth could have its own Rahanna box yet! I’ll be in this constituency in 10 days. On a minor diversion from Belfast to a football match in the ever-republican village of Loughgall. Despite being able to see the Cooley peninsula from the ‘beach’ near my granny and granda’s old house, I’ve never really been. So fixing that, as I have a car for the weekend. Annoyingly but unsurprisingly the ferry doesn’t run over the winter so I can’t go there via seeing them behind the church, and the fabulous breakfasts at Cunningham’s on Newcastle St. Isn't there a bridge planned soon nearby? |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Nov 28, 2024 0:11:19 GMT
I’ll be in this constituency in 10 days. On a minor diversion from Belfast to a football match in the ever-republican village of Loughgall. Despite being able to see the Cooley peninsula from the ‘beach’ near my granny and granda’s old house, I’ve never really been. So fixing that, as I have a car for the weekend. Annoyingly but unsurprisingly the ferry doesn’t run over the winter so I can’t go there via seeing them behind the church, and the fabulous breakfasts at Cunningham’s on Newcastle St. Isn't there a bridge planned soon nearby? Yes. ‘Soon’. Some work has begun. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Nov 28, 2024 0:14:45 GMT
Isn't there a bridge planned soon nearby? Yes. ‘Soon’. Some work has begun. Hopefully it will be in place by your next visit! |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Nov 28, 2024 0:17:49 GMT
Yes. ‘Soon’. Some work has begun. Hopefully it will be in place by your next visit! I doubt it! Bangor are doing well, which means I’m likely to head home many times in the spring. |
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Post by mrpastelito on Nov 28, 2024 7:36:40 GMT
Bangor are doing well, which means I’m likely to head home many times in the spring. Telling us that you're a glory hunter without actually telling us that you're a glory hunter  |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Nov 28, 2024 10:16:40 GMT
Bangor are doing well, which means I’m likely to head home many times in the spring. Telling us that you're a glory hunter without actually telling us that you're a glory hunter Well… apart from the lack of glory! |
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