|
|
Post by hullenedge on Nov 25, 2024 19:07:41 GMT
No love lost amongst FG candidates?
|
|
|
|
Post by irish observer on Nov 25, 2024 19:11:24 GMT
Dublin South-West (5): Remains a 5 seater but has lost the Tallaght-Fettercairn area to neighbouring Dublin Mid-West and gained the Terenure and Rathfarnham areas from neighbouring Dublin South-Central. Main population centres include Tallaght, Jobstown, Oldbawn, Terenure, Rathfarnham, Templeogue, Kingswood, Firhouse, Bohernabreena etc.
Current TDs: Colm Brophy (FG), John Lahart (FF), Seán Crowe (SF), Paul Murphy (PBP/SOL) and Francis Duffy (GRN) All are running again.
Brophy took over the FG organisation from Brian Hayes and is largely based in the Kingswood area outside of the Tallaght metropolis. His running mate is newly-elected Cllr Sarah Barnes who is a daughter of former DL TD Monica Barnes who was very high-profile in the 1980s on women's equality issues. Brophy will hold here. So will FF as sitting TD John Lahart is running again. His running mate is Tallaght Cllr Teresa Costello.
SF will retain a seat probably Crowe a long-time worker here, first elected a Cllr back in 1999. He became a TD in 2002 and has retained his seat in all but one election. However, it has been said that SF will take a second seat here before but I don't see it happening. His running-mate Cllr Niamh Whelan barely secured election in June. Furthermore Cllr Paddy Holohan the MMA fighter is running as an Independent. He was re-elected in 2 of the Tallaght areas in June taking votes off SF for whom he had been elected in 2019. He was asked to quit the party following personal comments made regarding Leo Varadkar's marital status and effect this would have on him caring or empathising with children etc. This ensures SF have no second seat here.
In addition PBP/SOL gained a seat here in June and Murphy remains a high-profile person. Originally from a very middle-class family one of his uncles used be a newsreader on RTE and he also has good communication skills.
I consider the Greens gone here and mentioned part of the reason on Dublin-Rathdown Duffy being married to Catherine Martin.
Accordingly I see this as a battle between Cllr Ciaran Ahern of Labour and the Soc Dems Ross O'Mullane for the last seat with the possible involvement of Cllr Alan Edge who topped the poll in Firhouse-Bohernabreena. Labour have history here but currently SD are ahead in regional polling in Dublin. Can this follow through here? Wait for the boxes to open on Saturday to find out.
Prediction: 1SF, 1FF, 1FG, 1PBP/SOL, LAB/SD/IND
|
|
|
|
Post by relique on Nov 25, 2024 19:44:02 GMT
No love lost amongst FG candidates? Well, the other candidate was held liable at 65% in a civil case for beating up a guy that was on the floor... Harris was partly crucified for sticking with him and now is in disarray... This morning he said that there are two FG candidates and that people can vote for whoever they want... |
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Nov 25, 2024 23:56:55 GMT
No love lost amongst FG candidates? She's utterly butterly. |
|
|
|
Post by irish observer on Nov 26, 2024 0:06:55 GMT
Dublin West (5) I think my last constituency to do. Yeah!!! Gains a seat from the last election.
Essentially the Castleknock, Mulhuddart and Ongar electoral areas of Fingal County Council. Contains many diverse communities including Castleknock, Clonsilla, Coolmine, Carpenterstown, Mulhuddart, Blanchardstown, Ongar, The Phoenix Park and Ashtown (made an error before this is here now so I used work in this constituency not the other)
After the last election this became home to 3 Government Ministers; Leo Varadkar (FG), Jack Chambers (FF) and Roderic O Gormain (GRN). Now Varadkar is standing down and the only opposition TD elected was SF Paul Donnelly.
FF will retain Chambers' seat. He is also the Minister for Finance and the FF Director of Elections and based in Castleknock. Senator Emer Currie of FG who was a running-mate to Varadkar at the last election should take the FG seat here. I also predict that Donnelly who is Mulhuddart based will retain for SF. Given that since she lost her seat she was re-elected at Council level I think that Ruth Coppinger could make a gain here for PBP/SOL but if she does it will be over Labour in this area.
This is the most ethnically diverse constituency in the state and the fastest growing which probably explains the election of candidates for fringe parties in June where immigration was a major issue. The Greens were destroyed here at the Locals as ROG as Minister was the touchstone Minister on the subject. Very unpopular nationally I think his seat is gone. It should also be made clear that only Irish and UK citizens can vote in a Dáil election, the EU and non-national voters can only vote in local or Euro elections. He could be a casualty of this if an Independent candidate of substance emerges to challenge for votes on the right. While more a left-wing Independent than a right-wing one Cllr Tania Doyle could be that person.
Prediction: 1FF, 1FG, 1SF, 1PBP/SOL, 1Independent.
|
|
CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,724
Member is Online
|
Post by CatholicLeft on Nov 26, 2024 1:39:10 GMT
Dublin West (5) I think my last constituency to do. Yeah!!! Gains a seat from the last election. Essentially the Castleknock, Mulhuddart and Ongar electoral areas of Fingal County Council. Contains many diverse communities including Castleknock, Clonsilla, Coolmine, Carpenterstown, Mulhuddart, Blanchardstown, Ongar, The Phoenix Park and Ashtown (made an error before this is here now so I used work in this constituency not the other) After the last election this became home to 3 Government Ministers; Leo Varadkar (FG), Jack Chambers (FF) and Roderic O Gormain (GRN). Now Varadkar is standing down and the only opposition TD elected was SF Paul Donnelly. FF will retain Chambers' seat. He is also the Minister for Finance and the FF Director of Elections and based in Castleknock. Senator Emer Currie of FG who was a running-mate to Varadkar at the last election should take the FG seat here. I also predict that Donnelly who is Mulhuddart based will retain for SF. Given that since she lost her seat she was re-elected at Council level I think that Ruth Coppinger could make a gain here for PBP/SOL but if she does it will be over Labour in this area. This is the most ethnically diverse constituency in the state and the fastest growing which probably explains the election of candidates for fringe parties in June where immigration was a major issue. The Greens were destroyed here at the Locals as ROG as Minister was the touchstone Minister on the subject. Very unpopular nationally I think his seat is gone. It should also be made clear that only Irish and UK citizens can vote in a Dáil election, the EU and non-national voters can only vote in local or Euro elections. He could be a casualty of this if an Independent candidate of substance emerges to challenge for votes on the right. While more a left-wing Independent than a right-wing one Cllr Tania Doyle could be that person. Prediction: 1FF, 1FG, 1SF, 1PBP/SOL, 1Independent. Really surprised by this - you make no mention of the fact that Aontu has two councillors elected in this constituency (Castleknock and Ongar) and coming close in Blanchardstown–Mulhuddart: , Cllr Ellen Troy (Castleknock) the Aontu Candidate, is being seriously considered as a strong challenger by psephological sites on the left, and you make no mention? |
|
