Irish elections

[finsobruce]

Oct 21, 2024 16:51:57 GMT stb12 said:

Oct 21, 2024 16:49:09 GMT finsobruce said:

I would have thought that a lot of it has to do with politics in the Republic being a lot more competitive, and both Fianna Fial and Fianna Gael being able to attack SF with a reasonable chance of getting their vote.

True, Northern Ireland wise new leadership of the SDLP combined with the scandals may see Sinn Fein lose some ground but with how Northern Ireland politics are maybe not all that much especially with the whole tribal largest party contest

I just think that the whole political set up is so different that it has had very different effects. The big two in Irish politics have been desperate for something to beat SF with as the party had 'gone all respectable' and was seriously threatening their duopoly, and although perhaps it isn't what might have been expected, here it is.

[mattbewilson]

Oct 21, 2024 16:43:57 GMT stb12 said:

Oct 21, 2024 16:18:44 GMT mattbewilson said:

the shinners lost the lead in the polls in the republic in June while in the north they topped the poll in Westminster elections for the first time

True but quite a lot of the scandal has come since July

there's been at least one poll since July with shinners support growing

[hullenedge]

Forecast (by Peter Donaghy) for the forthcoming Irish GE. A pretty neat graphic:-

[mattbewilson]

Oct 25, 2024 12:54:46 GMT hullenedge said:

Forecast (by Peter Donaghy) for the forthcoming Irish GE. A pretty neat graphic:-

bit mad SF go from largest party in 2020 to third but still gains seats. I guess under nominating in 2020?

[hullenedge]

Oct 25, 2024 18:41:28 GMT mattbewilson said:

Oct 25, 2024 12:54:46 GMT hullenedge said:

Forecast (by Peter Donaghy) for the forthcoming Irish GE. A pretty neat graphic:-

bit mad SF go from largest party in 2020 to third but still gains seats. I guess under nominating in 2020?

Transfer unfriendly last time and likely to be again this time. There's been a redistribution and extra seats for this election.

[CatholicLeft]

Oct 25, 2024 18:41:28 GMT mattbewilson said:

Oct 25, 2024 12:54:46 GMT hullenedge said:

Forecast (by Peter Donaghy) for the forthcoming Irish GE. A pretty neat graphic:-

bit mad SF go from largest party in 2020 to third but still gains seats. I guess under nominating in 2020?

To be fair to him, not really a forecast, but a "back of a fag packet" guess based on the local elections. The problem is that local elections do not always transfer over to general elections; he forgets that SF's intention to field more candidates will stop useful transfers to left-wing parties/candidates, and that the Greens, having been in government with FF and FG for the last term, aren't likely to get significant transfers from SF voters anyway.
Given that there are likely to be record numbers of candidates in constituencies, and the weird advice to people not to add preferences beyond their most palatable candidates, we could see a fair few unexpectedly elected candidates from smaller parties, or as Independents, considerably below quota.

[thinwhiteduke]

[mattbewilson]

Oct 27, 2024 0:42:03 GMT thinwhiteduke said:

who are indirl

[thinwhiteduke]

Oct 27, 2024 12:16:17 GMT mattbewilson said:

Oct 27, 2024 0:42:03 GMT thinwhiteduke said:

who are indirl

Loosely tied "party" that was founded last year by Independent TD's Michael Collins, Richard O'Donoghue (former Fianna Fail) and Michael Fitzmaurice who later joined.

Had a successful council/EU election.. elected one MEP (Ciaran Mullooly in Midlands North-West) and 24 councillors.


Fairly socially conservative and to the right of the big three.. although they maintain no whip system so their representatives basically have a free hand on any issue

[thinwhiteduke]

"However, the clear preferred choice of government among voters remains a Coalition of Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Independents with 69pc of those polled choosing this option compared to 31pc wanting a Sinn Féin-led government excluding Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil."

[dizz]

So, I've been in Ireland for over a week and the forthcoming election hit us from the first night in Rathgar where Kate O'Connell is running as an independent in Dublin Bay South (her pharmacy has her candidacy splashed on it!) and, whilst there was less action in Wexford, in Kerry, where we are for the next 3 weeks, there is plenty!

Kerry

So far declared candidates:

2 Healy-Rae's
3 FF (!)
1 FG (!)
1 SF (!)
1 Lab
1 Green/Aontu/PBP/2 further Independents (one the son of an FF TD) /Irish Freedom Party,

Present TDs: 2 Healy-Rae's, 1 FF, 1 FG and 1 SF with (just) the FG TD retiring.

On arrival in Killarney, there were only FG and 1 FF leaflets through the door with the FF one much more local/specific. On the N22 there are parked lorries backing the same FF person and Danny Healy-Rae (Killarney voters were asked to preference him first in 2020) and in town 2 of the FF candidates have election offices.

I don't see Lab (with a candidate some way from their remaining Tralee 'strongerhold') or the others put in the one line above getting enough traction so, if SF and FG are only going for 1 seat each, then it is most likely just FF pushing for a second TD at the expense of one of the other parties/Healy-Rae's i.e. there are 7 bigger candidates (including all 3 FFs) going for 5 seats with the most likely outcome being no change from the present. Of course it would be great to see 1 FF edge out either a Healy-Rae or the SF but the major battle is likely to be between the 3 of them to come ahead of the other 2.

[mattbewilson]

Nov 2, 2024 18:00:40 GMT thinwhiteduke said:

"However, the clear preferred choice of government among voters remains a Coalition of Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Independents with 69pc of those polled choosing this option compared to 31pc wanting a Sinn Féin-led government excluding Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil."

(-5) (+1) We're all losers here

[CatholicLeft]

Nov 2, 2024 18:00:40 GMT thinwhiteduke said:

"However, the clear preferred choice of government among voters remains a Coalition of Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Independents with 69pc of those polled choosing this option compared to 31pc wanting a Sinn Féin-led government excluding Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil."

Interestingly, when voters were asked by the same poll to choose by 1st Preference, FG slip back.


FG: 23% (-3)

FF: 21% (+1)

SF: 18%

Lab: 5% (+1)

Aontú: 4% (+1)

SD: 4% (-2)

GP: 4%

SPBP: 3% (+1)

IND: 18% (+2)



Sunday Indo Poll Nov 24.

1st preference choice by candidate.

[CatholicLeft]

My sister and I are off to see family in Derry and Donegal the weekend after next, with a likely announced general election by then. Our cousins are very politically engaged so I will be interested to get their perspective on what is likely to happen in Donegal.

[dizz]

Will be 29 November Simon Harris has confirmed

[irish observer]

The Government are going for a short 3 week campaign. Basically the recent Budget was pretty well received by the general public. While Irish politics continued to be more fragmented than at any time in recent history, a pattern commenced arguably with the 2 former large blocs coalescing together, the others have not unified around a single alternative figure. The Greens, the stool's third leg, go into the election with a new leader, Minister for Integration, Roderic O Gormain, coming off a terrible Euro Election and a bloody Locals. Expect seat losses. FG and FF will both hope for gains. There are 14 extra seats from last time.

Labour see many current TDs retire. Yet they won an MEP seat in Dublin. Can they market this gain and popularity in the Capital into seat gains here? Ivana Bacik, a legal expert and former Senator has done well as Leader.
Arguably they are competing for much of the same vote and territory of the Soc Dems, now led by the photogenic Holly Cairns, from rural Cork SW. She is very telegenetic and popular.
Sinn Féin remain the main opposition. To be blunt they had an excellent NI election and got the top job there so they're King of the Castle in Belfast and should be cock of the hoop. However, for years now the focus has been on Dublin as they want real power there while also having it in Belfast to grow their "twin-track" vehicle to Unity. This vehicle has frankly been leaking somewhat lately due to some resignations and expulsions. But this happens in all parties, however, some of the recent sleaze to affect SF in this fashion in the media has been atypical. How this affects Mary Lou McDonald in debates remains to be seen.

There are a lot of Independents now in the Dáil. I will attempt to estimate likely credible candidates from non-entities in due course through constituency profiles and predictions. I would expect Independent Ireland and Aontu to have a relatively good election in terms of votes and seats.

Last time we had c.3 debates. 2 featured Varadkar and Martin versus MacDonald and she tactically outfoxed the two men. One debate featured all other leaders. Will this happen again or will all leaders be allowed debate each other?

Are the polls accurate?

(Edited to correct for silliness)

[CatholicLeft]

Nov 6, 2024 20:36:32 GMT irish observer said:

The Government are going for a short 3 week campaign. Basically the recent Budget was pretty well received by the general public. While Irish politics continued to be more fragmented than at any time in recent history, a pattern commenced arguably with the 2 former large blocs coalescing together, the others have not unified around a single alternative figure. The Greens, the stool's third leg, go into the election with a new leader, Minister for Integration, Roderic O Gormain, coming off a terrible Euro Election and a bloody Locals. Expect seat losses. FG and FF will both hope for gains. There are 8 extra seats from last time.

Labour see many current TDs retire. Yet they won an MEP seat in Dublin. Can they market this gain and popularity in the Capital into seat gains here? Ivana Bacik, a legal expert and former Senator has done well as Leader.
Arguably they are competing for much of the same vote and territory of the Soc Dems, now led by the photogenic Holly Cairns, from rural Cork SW. She is very telegenetic and popular.
Sinn Féin remain the main opposition. To be blunt they had an excellent NI election and got the top job there so they're King of the Castle in Belfast and should be cock of the hoop. However, for years now the focus has been on Dublin as they want real power there while also having it in Belfast to grow their "twin-track" vehicle to Unity. This vehicle has frankly been leaking somewhat lately due to some resignations and expulsions. But this happens in all parties, however, some of the recent sleaze to affect SF in this fashion in the media has been atypical. How this affects Mary Lou McDonald in debates remains to be seen.

There are a lot of Independents now in the Dáil. I will attempt to estimate likely credible candidates from non-entities in due course through constituency profiles and predictions. I would expect Independent Ireland and Aontu to have a relatively good election in terms of votes and seats.

Last time we had c.3 debates. 2 featured Varadkar and Martin versus MacDonald and she tactically outfoxed the two men. One debate featured all other leaders. Will this happen again or will all leaders be allowed debate each other?

Are the polls accurate?

Don't yout mean 14 extra seats (160 up to 174), or are you speculating on how both parties might have done if the last election was under these boundaries?
I look forward to reading your constituency profile and predictions.
I have continued to follow the growth of Aontu (as a purely personal psephological exercise on how nascent parties can achieve success, or otherwise), so will try to give some perspective on them.

As an  aside, one of my cousins almost had apoplexy when his rubbish phone coverage meant he thought I had said I was voting Aontu, as when when I said "chronicling", his heard "encouraging".

[dizz]

Nov 3, 2024 10:36:39 GMT dizz said:

So, I've been in Ireland for over a week and the forthcoming election hit us from the first night in

Kerry

So far declared candidates:

2 Healy-Rae's
3 FF (!)
1 FG (!)
1 SF (!)
1 Lab
1 Green/Aontu/PBP/2 further Independents (one the son of an FF TD) /Irish Freedom Party,

Present TDs: 2 Healy-Rae's, 1 FF, 1 FG and 1 SF with (just) the FG TD retiring.

On arrival in Killarney, there were only FG and 1 FF leaflets through the door with the FF one much more local/specific. On the N22 there are parked lorries backing the same FF person and Danny Healy-Rae (Killarney voters were asked to preference him first in 2020) and in town 2 of the FF candidates have election offices.

I don't see Lab (with a candidate some way from their remaining Tralee 'strongerhold') or the others put in the one line above getting enough traction so, if SF and FG are only going for 1 seat each, then it is most likely just FF pushing for a second TD at the expense of one of the other parties/Healy-Rae's i.e. there are 7 bigger candidates (including all 3 FFs) going for 5 seats with the most likely outcome being no change from the present. Of course it would be great to see 1 FF edge out either a Healy-Rae or the SF but the major battle is likely to be between the 3 of them to come ahead of the other 2.

Kerry update

SF are now running two here. Makes sense & balancing the ticket with a South Kerry candidate makes sense too though she was not elected in the Kenmare local election ward earlier this year.

Also got a leaflet from Norma Foley one of the FF candidates & also sitting in the cabinet as Minister for Education so the work is being pit in for her in South Kerry too.

[relique]

Nov 7, 2024 11:01:58 GMT dizz said:

Nov 3, 2024 10:36:39 GMT dizz said:

So, I've been in Ireland for over a week and the forthcoming election hit us from the first night in

Kerry

So far declared candidates:

2 Healy-Rae's
3 FF (!)
1 FG (!)
1 SF (!)
1 Lab
1 Green/Aontu/PBP/2 further Independents (one the son of an FF TD) /Irish Freedom Party,

Present TDs: 2 Healy-Rae's, 1 FF, 1 FG and 1 SF with (just) the FG TD retiring.

On arrival in Killarney, there were only FG and 1 FF leaflets through the door with the FF one much more local/specific. On the N22 there are parked lorries backing the same FF person and Danny Healy-Rae (Killarney voters were asked to preference him first in 2020) and in town 2 of the FF candidates have election offices.

I don't see Lab (with a candidate some way from their remaining Tralee 'strongerhold') or the others put in the one line above getting enough traction so, if SF and FG are only going for 1 seat each, then it is most likely just FF pushing for a second TD at the expense of one of the other parties/Healy-Rae's i.e. there are 7 bigger candidates (including all 3 FFs) going for 5 seats with the most likely outcome being no change from the present. Of course it would be great to see 1 FF edge out either a Healy-Rae or the SF but the major battle is likely to be between the 3 of them to come ahead of the other 2.

Kerry update

SF are now running two here. Makes sense & balancing the ticket with a South Kerry candidate makes sense too though she was not elected in the Kenmare local election ward earlier this year.

Also got a leaflet from Norma Foley one of the FF candidates & also sitting in the cabinet as Minister for Education so the work is being pit in for her in South Kerry too.

Between 2016 and 2020 elections, the Healy-Raes lost 6000 votes while SF won 6000. FG lost 2000, FF 1000 and Greens won 3000.

Was it as simple as that ? 6000 independent votes going to Sinn Fein that could go back to independents given the current polls (but not really preventing them from retaining a seat), and a few thousand mainstream votes switching sides that could go a bit more FG this time and less Green ?

Or were the Healy-Raes finally losing some appeal in Kerry and is the second seat a target this time ?

[dizz]

relique - they are regarded as very effective local campaigners (speed-up passport etc.) so hence the following but also by some/many as an embarrassment and, let's say, that the family does not suffer from the work they do...

On rises and falls in votes, I think there is a temptation with the voting system to game the first choice if you are assuming that someone else will definitely be elected.

Lastly, I'm only here a couple of months in the year so I only know to that extent.