Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,239
Member is Online
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 10, 2024 17:50:44 GMT
Participation (only the Family-ref., but the Care-one is naturally quasi identical): Taking that map one would expect a huge victory for Yes...
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,247
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Post by CatholicLeft on Apr 7, 2024 18:03:20 GMT
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Post by Disgusted Of Tunbridge Wells on Apr 7, 2024 22:12:13 GMT
Is an SF-Ind-PBP coalition possible on those numbers?
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Post by mattbewilson on Apr 7, 2024 22:32:15 GMT
Is an SF-Ind-PBP coalition possible on those numbers? not sure Ind in a coalition would be stable if that were an option
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,247
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Post by CatholicLeft on Apr 7, 2024 22:57:31 GMT
Is an SF-Ind-PBP coalition possible on those numbers? Nope, the Independents are a mix of gene-pool FF, FG, SF, Lab, Hard-Left (of different types) , centrists and eccentrics.
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Post by Disgusted Of Tunbridge Wells on Apr 8, 2024 12:23:45 GMT
Is an SF-Ind-PBP coalition possible on those numbers? Nope, the Independents are a mix of gene-pool FF, FG, SF, Lab, Hard-Left (of different types) , centrists and eccentrics. Fair point. How many more seats than the average predicted on that site would SF need to form a coalition?
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Post by relique on Apr 8, 2024 13:07:10 GMT
Nope, the Independents are a mix of gene-pool FF, FG, SF, Lab, Hard-Left (of different types) , centrists and eccentrics. Fair point. How many more seats than the average predicted on that site would SF need to form a coalition? I guess 20-30.
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Post by Disgusted Of Tunbridge Wells on Apr 9, 2024 3:58:47 GMT
Fair point. How many more seats than the average predicted on that site would SF need to form a coalition? I guess 20-30. A portion of the independents are SF friendly, so I doubt 30 more seats would be needed, but maybe 20
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Post by relique on Apr 9, 2024 6:22:58 GMT
A portion of the independents are SF friendly, so I doubt 30 more seats would be needed, but maybe 20 Yes. But of course, 30 more seats might come against those SF "friendly" independents (in Donegal, Galway...), or potential SF allies (SPBP who would, in my opinion, vote for a SF taoiseach just to allow FFG to be beaten, and would not join a government)
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Apr 9, 2024 9:53:55 GMT
What looks almost certain is that the next government is going to be a complete and utter mess. The historic dominance of FF and to a lesser extent FG meant that Ireland was spared the worst outcomes of PR but as those parties have faded results have become ever more silly.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,247
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Post by CatholicLeft on Apr 9, 2024 14:20:07 GMT
A portion of the independents are SF friendly, so I doubt 30 more seats would be needed, but maybe 20 Yes. But of course, 30 more seats might come against those SF "friendly" independents (in Donegal, Galway...), or potential SF allies (SPBP who would, in my opinion, vote for a SF taoiseach just to allow FFG to be beaten, and would not join a government) All of this ignores the point that many of the SF-friendly Independent and, indeed, SOL-PBP TDs, were elected by SF transfers, which are much less likely come the next election, where SF will not make the mistake of undernominating this time. Many (probably most) Independents are parish-pump populists who will sell their support to the highest bidder.
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Post by rcronald on Apr 18, 2024 7:47:14 GMT
It seems like SF has lost a lot of ground over the past couple of months, Is it them bleeding WC populists/social conservatives?
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Post by stb12 on Apr 18, 2024 8:08:02 GMT
It seems like SF has lost a lot of ground over the past couple of months, Is it them bleeding WC populists/social conservatives? Good to see you back!
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Post by rcronald on Apr 18, 2024 8:30:10 GMT
It seems like SF has lost a lot of ground over the past couple of months, Is it them bleeding WC populists/social conservatives? Good to see you back! Thank you! The busy season+wife+forum is just a bit too much for me, I don’t think I’ve been active between January and April last year as well.
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Post by stb12 on Apr 18, 2024 8:31:40 GMT
Thank you! The busy season+wife+forum is just a bit too much for me, I don’t think I’ve been active between January and April last year as well. Could always have put the wife to one side
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Post by independentukip on Apr 23, 2024 22:11:44 GMT
The excellent John McGuirk and Gript.ie have produced a very comprehensive explanation of voting for the forthcoming local and EU elections in Ireland. gript.ie/the-local-and-eu-elections-a-guide-to-using-your-vote/Below is a small early part from the article which seems well worth reading in full for those interested in such matters. There might, knowing Gript.ie, be a slight tendency against the mainstream leftist parties in their explanations but I've not seen such detail before in discussion of Irish voting options. Has the article nailed it all on the head or has he got it wrong anywhere? Perhaps it could have been phrased differently if propping up the mainstream leftists was the objective rather than wanting as many of them as possible to be kicked out?
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Post by johnloony on Apr 24, 2024 1:33:19 GMT
The excellent John McGuirk and Gript.ie have produced a very comprehensive explanation of voting for the forthcoming local and EU elections in Ireland. gript.ie/the-local-and-eu-elections-a-guide-to-using-your-vote/Below is a small early part from the article which seems well worth reading in full for those interested in such matters. There might, knowing Gript.ie, be a slight tendency against the mainstream leftist parties in their explanations but I've not seen such detail before in discussion of Irish voting options. Has the article nailed it all on the head or has he got it wrong anywhere? Perhaps it could have been phrased differently if propping up the mainstream leftists was the objective rather than wanting as many of them as possible to be kicked out? That’s just straightforwardly stating the obvious. It’s not as if the voters of Ireland don’t know how to do their preferences.
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Post by independentukip on Apr 24, 2024 11:46:13 GMT
The excellent John McGuirk and Gript.ie have produced a very comprehensive explanation of voting for the forthcoming local and EU elections in Ireland. gript.ie/the-local-and-eu-elections-a-guide-to-using-your-vote/Below is a small early part from the article which seems well worth reading in full for those interested in such matters. There might, knowing Gript.ie, be a slight tendency against the mainstream leftist parties in their explanations but I've not seen such detail before in discussion of Irish voting options. Has the article nailed it all on the head or has he got it wrong anywhere? Perhaps it could have been phrased differently if propping up the mainstream leftists was the objective rather than wanting as many of them as possible to be kicked out? That’s just straightforwardly stating the obvious. It’s not as if the voters of Ireland don’t know how to do their preferences. The quoted part is a small part of the article. Did you read it?
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