Post by relique on Sept 9, 2023 12:58:18 GMT
I tried to see, with the proposed new constituencies, what a 35% SF / 19-20% FG / 19/20% FF could look like.
I was surprised to see that I could see a (very narrow) path for a SF-led coalition with SD and support from S-PBP.
Of course, SF would need to take one more seat in almost every constituency. The exceptions would be:
- Clare, Dublin Bay South, Galway West, Kildare South, Roscommon Galway and Tipperary (I think they could keep one in Tipp. South but not get any in Tipp. North)
In the new constituencies, I think they could still get 2 in the new Wexford and Wicklow and 1 in Wexford-Wicklow. They could get one each in Fingal east and west (so +1 overall) one each in Laois and Offaly (so +1 overall)
They would also need to get 2 more seats in:
- Dublin South Central, Dublin West, Waterford
In this scenario, Fine Gael would still get 5 more seats. They would lose 1 in Donegal. They would get 1 each in Fingal east and west (+1), 1 each in Tipp. North and South (+2), 1 in Waterford, and 1 in the new Wexford-Wicklow.
Fianna Fail would only lose 3 overall, with a gain in Fingal (one in each), in Roscommon Galway, and in the new Wexford-Wicklow. In Tiperary, I think they would only get one in Tipp. North; in Laois and Offaly, they would keep their 2. They would lose in Cavan Monaghan, Cork North West, Dublin Bay South, Dublin North-West, Longford Westmeath and Wicklow.
The Greens, of course, would lose everything except for Dublin Bay South and Rathdown.
Labour would also lose almost everything. I think Bacik could still keep her newly acquired seat in Dublin Bay South, and Ged Nash win in Louth. But that's all.
As in the poll shown above, I think SD could keep 6 but I think the leader Cairns could be in trouble in Cork South West (but I really don't know what a SF vote surge could be there...), but they could gain one in Galway West. Solidarity-PBP would lose one in Dublin South Central, but I think there would still be some kind of left-wing surplus in most parts for them to keep their seats.
This path would have quite a lot of independents losing. Some are easily explained: Joan Collins in Dubln South Central would be lost to 2 more SF seats; Verona Murphy with one less seat in Wexford would lost hers; Shanahan wouldn't get 1,700 first-transfers from a 3 SF-candidates strategy in Waterford (and many second or third as well).
I think the Healy-Raes might lose one next time. They lost 5,000 votes from 2016 to 2020 and they really don't know how to balance their votes. If they keep losing votes, I don't think they will keep two. A balanced SF ticket with close to 30% of the votes would get two seats.
I thought Grealish might lose some votes in Galway west over the Covid scandal but I might be completely wrong.
In Limerick County, the independent O'Donoghue would be the one to lose out to a surging Sinn Féin (1,365 votes between them in the 10th round last time).
In Louth I thought the independent might lose to SF (although it could be Labour's Nash).
In Meath West, I thoght Toibin from Aontu might lose to a second SF but it would probably need them 17,000 votes (+4,500). It would be coherent with a 25 => 35% national surge, though.
In Roscommon-Galway, this scenario saw Naughten losing to FF but that supposes FF to have only one candidate and independents losing votes generally speaking.
In Sligo-Leitrim, Harkin would lose to a second SF candidate.
So overall, it would be 74 SF, 40 FG, 35 FF, 6 SD, 4 S-PBP, 4 left-wing independents (McNamara, Pringle, Connolly and Fitzmaurice), 4 Rural independents (Collins, Healy-Ray, Nolan and McGrath), 3 Regional independents (Canney, Berry and Lowry), 2 Labour, 2 Greens.
SF would need SD, S-PBP and Pringle, Connolly and McNamara or Fitzmaurice to get to 87.
I was surprised to see that I could see a (very narrow) path for a SF-led coalition with SD and support from S-PBP.
Of course, SF would need to take one more seat in almost every constituency. The exceptions would be:
- Clare, Dublin Bay South, Galway West, Kildare South, Roscommon Galway and Tipperary (I think they could keep one in Tipp. South but not get any in Tipp. North)
In the new constituencies, I think they could still get 2 in the new Wexford and Wicklow and 1 in Wexford-Wicklow. They could get one each in Fingal east and west (so +1 overall) one each in Laois and Offaly (so +1 overall)
They would also need to get 2 more seats in:
- Dublin South Central, Dublin West, Waterford
In this scenario, Fine Gael would still get 5 more seats. They would lose 1 in Donegal. They would get 1 each in Fingal east and west (+1), 1 each in Tipp. North and South (+2), 1 in Waterford, and 1 in the new Wexford-Wicklow.
Fianna Fail would only lose 3 overall, with a gain in Fingal (one in each), in Roscommon Galway, and in the new Wexford-Wicklow. In Tiperary, I think they would only get one in Tipp. North; in Laois and Offaly, they would keep their 2. They would lose in Cavan Monaghan, Cork North West, Dublin Bay South, Dublin North-West, Longford Westmeath and Wicklow.
The Greens, of course, would lose everything except for Dublin Bay South and Rathdown.
Labour would also lose almost everything. I think Bacik could still keep her newly acquired seat in Dublin Bay South, and Ged Nash win in Louth. But that's all.
As in the poll shown above, I think SD could keep 6 but I think the leader Cairns could be in trouble in Cork South West (but I really don't know what a SF vote surge could be there...), but they could gain one in Galway West. Solidarity-PBP would lose one in Dublin South Central, but I think there would still be some kind of left-wing surplus in most parts for them to keep their seats.
This path would have quite a lot of independents losing. Some are easily explained: Joan Collins in Dubln South Central would be lost to 2 more SF seats; Verona Murphy with one less seat in Wexford would lost hers; Shanahan wouldn't get 1,700 first-transfers from a 3 SF-candidates strategy in Waterford (and many second or third as well).
I think the Healy-Raes might lose one next time. They lost 5,000 votes from 2016 to 2020 and they really don't know how to balance their votes. If they keep losing votes, I don't think they will keep two. A balanced SF ticket with close to 30% of the votes would get two seats.
I thought Grealish might lose some votes in Galway west over the Covid scandal but I might be completely wrong.
In Limerick County, the independent O'Donoghue would be the one to lose out to a surging Sinn Féin (1,365 votes between them in the 10th round last time).
In Louth I thought the independent might lose to SF (although it could be Labour's Nash).
In Meath West, I thoght Toibin from Aontu might lose to a second SF but it would probably need them 17,000 votes (+4,500). It would be coherent with a 25 => 35% national surge, though.
In Roscommon-Galway, this scenario saw Naughten losing to FF but that supposes FF to have only one candidate and independents losing votes generally speaking.
In Sligo-Leitrim, Harkin would lose to a second SF candidate.
So overall, it would be 74 SF, 40 FG, 35 FF, 6 SD, 4 S-PBP, 4 left-wing independents (McNamara, Pringle, Connolly and Fitzmaurice), 4 Rural independents (Collins, Healy-Ray, Nolan and McGrath), 3 Regional independents (Canney, Berry and Lowry), 2 Labour, 2 Greens.
SF would need SD, S-PBP and Pringle, Connolly and McNamara or Fitzmaurice to get to 87.