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Post by matureleft on Jul 7, 2021 6:19:25 GMT
Labour's pretty "transfer friendly" isn't it? They've survived on fairly small first preference votes because of that.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 9, 2021 8:13:34 GMT
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Post by hiberno on Jul 9, 2021 10:38:05 GMT
Looking at the boxes that have yet to be tallied, they would be in more FG friendly areas so expect Geoghan to have a first count lead but to be overtaken by Ivana Bacick on subsequent counts. If you could extrapolate to a General Election FF are in huge trouble in Dublin perhaps being reduced to 1 or 2 sears
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jul 9, 2021 11:12:59 GMT
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ColinJ
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Post by ColinJ on Jul 9, 2021 11:26:19 GMT
Using the link provided by David, we now see all boxes tallied. Turnout: 34.16% Projected quota: 13,157 Bacik | Lab | 7,938 | 30.3% | Geoghegan | FG | 6,861 | 26.2% | Boylan | SF | 4,135 | 15.8% | Byrne | Green | 2,076 | 7.9% | Conroy | FF | 1,258 | 4.8% |
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 9, 2021 11:48:45 GMT
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Jul 9, 2021 11:49:12 GMT
Using the link provided by David, we now see all boxes tallied. Turnout: 34.16% Projected quota: 13,157 Bacik | Lab | 7,938 | 30.3% | Geoghegan | FG | 6,861 | 26.2% | Boylan | SF | 4,135 | 15.8% | Byrne | Green | 2,076 | 7.9% | Conroy | FF | 1,258 | 4.8% |
Compared to the opinion poll: Lab +8% FG -1% SF +3% GP -3% FF -5%
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Jul 9, 2021 11:52:57 GMT
I think the most appropriate response is "LOL". That is quite hilariously bad for FG no?
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 9, 2021 12:02:48 GMT
I think the most appropriate response is "LOL". That is quite hilariously bad for FG no? A need for Irish understatement: "Well, it could have been a wee bit better."
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Jul 9, 2021 12:09:17 GMT
I think the most appropriate response is "LOL". That is quite hilariously bad for FG no? Poor but not disastrous. Rough comparisons of the top 5 parties in the by-election: Compared to 2020: Lab +22% FG -2% SF = GP -14% FF -9% Compared to 2016: Lab +20% FG -4% SF +6% GP -3% FF -7% Compared to Dublin SE in 2011: Lab +5% FG -11% SF +12% GP -1% FF -6% Compared to Dublin SE in 2007: Lab +14% FG +8% SF +11% GP -6% FF -13% FG have slowly gone backwards since 2011
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Post by irish observer on Jul 9, 2021 13:31:03 GMT
Been lurking a while. Jim O'Callaghan will poll higher than this by-election vote in a future GE. He gets a lot of media exposure and has also been running a grassroots campaign of against the coalition. This constituency has a base of Labour Cllrs and 2 Labour Senators (Moynihan and Bacik) so has a very strong organisation. I would call a future GE 1LAB 1FG 1SF and O'Callaghan fighting for the last seat with Ryan.
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dizz
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Post by dizz on Jul 9, 2021 14:18:39 GMT
Been lurking a while. Jim O'Callaghan will poll higher than this by-election vote in a future GE. He gets a lot of media exposure and has also been running a grassroots campaign of against the coalition. This constituency has a base of Labour Cllrs and 2 Labour Senators (Moynihan and Bacik) so has a very strong organisation. I would call a future GE 1LAB 1FG 1SF and O'Callaghan fighting for the last seat with Ryan. FG will clearly gain one seat at the next election here (assuming Bacik wins) & that is the only safe seat but agree with your assessment as to who is the better placed of the others. This N1 Lab voter is super pleased at the return of D4/D6 Labour.
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dizz
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Post by dizz on Jul 9, 2021 15:14:48 GMT
First round:
Total poll: 27,044 Valid votes: 26,882 Invalid: 162 Quota: 13,442
Bacik: 8,131 Barrett: 183 Boylan: 4,245 Byrne: 2,157 Cahill: 169 Conroy: 1,247 Dooley: 261 Durcan: 849 Flynn: 879 Geoghegan: 7,052 Gilbourne: 164 Keigher: 23 O'Keefe: 23 Purcell: 759 Tóibín: 740
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ColinJ
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Post by ColinJ on Jul 9, 2021 19:23:53 GMT
Well, they're on the final stage now:
Bacik (Lab) 9,474 Geoghegan (FG) 8,265
with the votes from SF (5,237) and Green (2,985) to be distributed.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 9, 2021 20:23:18 GMT
Final count:
Bacik (Lab) 13,382 Geoghegan (FG) 9,235
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Jul 9, 2021 20:33:25 GMT
Was this primarily a personal vote for a well-known candidate, or were people actually voting for Labour as a party?
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 9, 2021 20:37:14 GMT
Was this primarily a personal vote for a well-known candidate, or were people actually voting for Labour as a party? She's always been seen (on this Forum at least) as an electoral liability, so whichever way you look at it, she and Labour have done well here.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 9, 2021 20:57:12 GMT
Was this primarily a personal vote for a well-known candidate, or were people actually voting for Labour as a party? She's always been seen (on this Forum at least) as an electoral liability, so whichever way you look at it, she and Labour have done well here. She was the perfect candidate for this constituency in a byelection - not true when she has stood elsewhere before.
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Post by greenhert on Jul 9, 2021 21:01:23 GMT
What is also surprising about the first count is just how badly Renua did in one of the few constituencies with any number of voters that would warm over to them-beaten by an independent anti-mask-wearing conspiracy theorist (Dolores Cahill), and a far-right fringe group (the "National Party").
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Post by greenhert on Jul 9, 2021 21:03:55 GMT
Was this primarily a personal vote for a well-known candidate, or were people actually voting for Labour as a party? It was, and one who was for once well-suited to the constituency she was standing in.
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