CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 3, 2021 12:45:58 GMT
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Post by seanryanj on Jul 5, 2021 19:29:08 GMT
Well Friday should be interesting Count Day! It was deemed a FG v SF grunge match. Looks like although both wanted it that way things might not end up like that. The Irish Times poll and word on the ground says it will likely be a FG V Labour (although technically Bacik) So lets see Eoghan Murphy resigned (if FG lose bet he might not be invited to too many parties..FG saw this as fairly easy win them vrs SF in the wealthiest constituency. They had a ready made runner in Kate O'Connell ex TD feminist high profile, however had pissed of local organisation and Leadership. So they pick a local councillor, who had been in chequered past politically had been in Renua, lobbyist for Philip Morris but exceleent pedigree Parents Judges and barrister himself. Sinn Fein picked former MEP Lynn Boylan and partner to Eoin O'Brian their housing expert in it to win. But they waited quite a while to pick her loosing valuable time and it was always going to be a struggle. They have a sitting TD would he be dancing with joy at the thought of another SF TD. The come out of nowhere place Ivana Bacik running for Labour deemed a carpet bagger and unelectable and with Labour at 3% in national polls yeah right!
There are others but I think they are out of the race!
So what is happening? FG are running hard but unless they get their vote out and there is a low poll they will be killed by transfers. SF they are failing to get traction in Middle and wealthy areas the campaign seems to lack life I wonder is her heart in it? Lab Bacik ran an almost independent campaign and looks like pulling off a major upset.
My money is on Bacik... I actually put 50 euro on her at 9 to 1 back in start of campaign I was told I was mad even by those who get paid for working in politics from different parties! Turnout will be crucial but her winniing would be an interesting one for the fallout! FG has thrown the kitchen sink at this one they would be very disappointed!
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,189
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 6, 2021 9:36:30 GMT
Well Friday should be interesting Count Day! It was deemed a FG v SF grunge match. Looks like although both wanted it that way things might not end up like that. The Irish Times poll and word on the ground says it will likely be a FG V Labour (although technically Bacik) So lets see Eoghan Murphy resigned (if FG lose bet he might not be invited to too many parties..FG saw this as fairly easy win them vrs SF in the wealthiest constituency. They had a ready made runner in Kate O'Connell ex TD feminist high profile, however had pissed of local organisation and Leadership. So they pick a local councillor, who had been in chequered past politically had been in Renua, lobbyist for Philip Morris but exceleent pedigree Parents Judges and barrister himself. Sinn Fein picked former MEP Lynn Boylan and partner to Eoin O'Brian their housing expert in it to win. But they waited quite a while to pick her loosing valuable time and it was always going to be a struggle. They have a sitting TD would he be dancing with joy at the thought of another SF TD. The come out of nowhere place Ivana Bacik running for Labour deemed a carpet bagger and unelectable and with Labour at 3% in national polls yeah right! There are others but I think they are out of the race! So what is happening? FG are running hard but unless they get their vote out and there is a low poll they will be killed by transfers. SF they are failing to get traction in Middle and wealthy areas the campaign seems to lack life I wonder is her heart in it? Lab Bacik ran an almost independent campaign and looks like pulling off a major upset. My money is on Bacik... I actually put 50 euro on her at 9 to 1 back in start of campaign I was told I was mad even by those who get paid for working in politics from different parties! Turnout will be crucial but her winniing would be an interesting one for the fallout! FG has thrown the kitchen sink at this one they would be very disappointed! As I remarked upthread, I am no fan of Ivana Bacik, but her likely election in what should be a comfortable enough Fine Gael seat would be a significant blow to Leo Varadker and the party leadership with significant blowback likely from the grassroots. As you say, Sinn Fein have not had a good campaign and this will leave them with questions to answer in terms of the limits of the party's appeal and the effectiveness of their opposition to the Government. In their leader's seat, the Greens will have hoped to do better, but they are in government so not particularly appealing when byelections are usually a way of giving the government a bit of a kicking. Fianna Fail were always onto a hiding to nothing when they are leading the present coalition and their best hope is to stay above 10% of FPV. For the others, anybody getting over 5% of FPV will have reason to be pleased.
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Post by stb12 on Jul 6, 2021 12:08:24 GMT
Is there any particular reason Irish Labour’s damage seems to be worse and longer lasting than when they were in previous coalitions? Rise of Sinn Fein being seen as a legitimate left wing party(rightly or wrongly) ?
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 6, 2021 12:22:33 GMT
Is there any particular reason Irish Labour’s damage seems to be worse and longer lasting than when they were in previous coalitions? Rise of Sinn Fein being seen as a legitimate left wing party(rightly or wrongly) ? Exactly that. Sinn Fein were always stronger in country areas but have taken a lot of Labour's vote on the cities.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 6, 2021 12:24:19 GMT
Smaller parties like the Social Democrats also take a fair few once "naturally" Labour votes.
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
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Post by European Lefty on Jul 6, 2021 12:34:01 GMT
It makes me think what sort of party system Ireland would have had if they had had FPTP throughout. Presumably the more progressive bits of FF & FG would combine with the Labour Party to form a larger version of the Labour Party on the left, and the right-wing bits of FF & FG would combine to be some sort of conservative-rural party. I suspect politics would be even more parochial and personality-focused and the actual party system would be almost completely irrelevant outside Dublin
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Jul 6, 2021 14:37:07 GMT
Is there any particular reason Irish Labour’s damage seems to be worse and longer lasting than when they were in previous coalitions? Rise of Sinn Fein being seen as a legitimate left wing party(rightly or wrongly) ? Exactly that. Sinn Fein were always stronger in country areas but have taken a lot of Labour's vote on the cities. Wasn’t Irish Labour traditionally a predominantly rural party?
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Jul 6, 2021 14:40:46 GMT
Is there any particular reason Irish Labour’s damage seems to be worse and longer lasting than when they were in previous coalitions? Rise of Sinn Fein being seen as a legitimate left wing party(rightly or wrongly) ? They were utterly discredited by the 2011-2016 government which left them so weak they have no natural constituency of support left in the electorate and their remaining MPs represent a collection of personal votes rather than generic support for the party. Quite similar to the Lib Dems here in the UK, but at least the latter have less competition, more local organisation, and sort of an idea of what they stand for that appeals to a small but geographically concentrated segment of society.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 6, 2021 17:21:14 GMT
Exactly that. Sinn Fein were always stronger in country areas but have taken a lot of Labour's vote on the cities. Wasn’t Irish Labour traditionally a predominantly rural party? They had local areas of strength like Kerry where Dick Spring was TD but they were always strong in Dublin and Cork too
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Post by stb12 on Jul 6, 2021 17:35:21 GMT
I don't know much about the 2011-2016 administration in Ireland admittedly, but I would have thought in a country that's always had a more proportional voting system voters wouldn't have reacted quite as badly to a coalition as the Lib Dems here where people are more used to black and white majority government.
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Jul 6, 2021 17:39:50 GMT
I don't know much about the 2011-2016 administration in Ireland admittedly, but I would have thought in a country that's always had a more proportional voting system voters wouldn't have reacted quite as badly to a coalition as the Lib Dems here where people are more used to black and white majority government. I think it was more the kind of coalition. People hoped that thrashing Fianna Fail and giving Labour their best ever result would produce change and allow an easing of austerity, instead Labour bent over for Fine Gael and not only voted through a lot of incredibly economically conservative measures, but gave the appearance of enjoying it
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Post by stb12 on Jul 6, 2021 17:42:32 GMT
I don't know much about the 2011-2016 administration in Ireland admittedly, but I would have thought in a country that's always had a more proportional voting system voters wouldn't have reacted quite as badly to a coalition as the Lib Dems here where people are more used to black and white majority government. I think it was more the kind of coalition. People hoped that thrashing Fianna Fail and giving Labour their best ever result would produce change and allow an easing of austerity, instead Labour bent over for Fine Gael and not only voted through a lot of incredibly economically conservative measures, but gave the appearance of enjoying it Guess the fault would go to whoever their negotiators were at the time?
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 6, 2021 17:55:47 GMT
I don't know much about the 2011-2016 administration in Ireland admittedly, but I would have thought in a country that's always had a more proportional voting system voters wouldn't have reacted quite as badly to a coalition as the Lib Dems here where people are more used to black and white majority government. I think it was more the kind of coalition. People hoped that thrashing Fianna Fail and giving Labour their best ever result would produce change and allow an easing of austerity, instead Labour bent over for Fine Gael and not only voted through a lot of incredibly economically conservative measures, but gave the appearance of enjoying it And at the same time Sinn Feins socialist wing became stronger and they turned more attention to the south. I have an internet acquaintance, Labour voting family, but they all switched to SF. Dublin West.
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ibfc
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Post by ibfc on Jul 6, 2021 17:58:24 GMT
I don't know much about the 2011-2016 administration in Ireland admittedly, but I would have thought in a country that's always had a more proportional voting system voters wouldn't have reacted quite as badly to a coalition as the Lib Dems here where people are more used to black and white majority government. A proportional system also makes it easier for new parties to emerge.
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Post by seanryanj on Jul 6, 2021 22:06:16 GMT
I think it was more the kind of coalition. People hoped that thrashing Fianna Fail and giving Labour their best ever result would produce change and allow an easing of austerity, instead Labour bent over for Fine Gael and not only voted through a lot of incredibly economically conservative measures, but gave the appearance of enjoying it And at the same time Sinn Feins socialist wing became stronger and they turned more attention to the south. I have an internet acquaintance, Labour voting family, but they all switched to SF. Dublin West. What u see here is maybe natural sf supporters turning to bacik...so as to keep fg out!
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Post by seanryanj on Jul 6, 2021 22:10:46 GMT
Defo getting a feeling women are turning to bacik not Labour...even fg women! They made a mistake not choosing o connell it would have diluted the problem! Even if fg poll well they will need to be substantially ahead of bacik transfers will flow her way!
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 6, 2021 22:42:00 GMT
Exactly that. Sinn Fein were always stronger in country areas but have taken a lot of Labour's vote on the cities. Wasn’t Irish Labour traditionally a predominantly rural party? Obviously - how else could they have survived in a nonindustrial country?! The Transport-TU - whose members were spred all over the country - was unsurprisingly of big importance, also the infamous HalfMoon around DublinCounty of workers on the big farms of the "rangers":
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 6, 2021 22:54:14 GMT
They survived as, at best, the third party. Largely because so many voters who in other countries would be the bulk of their support,voted Fianna Fail.
In Spain the PSOE vote is strong in many rural areas.
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Post by seanryanj on Jul 6, 2021 23:00:06 GMT
They survived as, at best, the third party. Largely because so many voters who in other countries would be the bulk of their support,voted Fianna Fail. In Spain the PSOE vote is strong in many rural areas. I have to say I would not be a natural Labour supporter but in fact they defo drove a lot of social issues!
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