Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 21, 2024 19:09:12 GMT
Exit polls in the Basque Country have PNV and Bildu neck and neck, probably a slight edge to the former. So nihil novae sub Jove... |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Apr 21, 2024 19:36:59 GMT
Exit polls in the Basque Country have PNV and Bildu neck and neck, probably a slight edge to the former. The PNV look to have won the most votes, but it looks possible that Bildu may come out with more seats: each of the three provinces has 25 deputies elected under PR, but the populations are very different. The most populous province, Biscay, is the PNV stronghold so they are disadvantaged in terms of seats. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 21, 2024 20:14:20 GMT
PNV&PSOE continuing is the obvious choice. But there will be increasingly pressure on PSOE to reign with the exETAs: After all they have needed them federally, Navarre aso.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Apr 21, 2024 20:38:58 GMT
Almost all counted, and it looks like: PNV - 27 (-4) EH Bildu - 27 (+6) PSE - 12 (+2) PP - 7 (+1) Sumar - 1 (+1) Vox - 1 (-) Podemos - 0 (-6) Vox actually finished behind the rump Podemos, but won a seat due to a more efficient vote. As Georg Ebner says, the current PNV-PSE government will likely continue. Bildu-PSE would probably be healthy, but it's almost certainly too soon for PSOE to be able to sell that in the rest of the country. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 22, 2024 16:37:52 GMT
"Historical" election for the left in Vasconia:  But obviously only the momentary "end" of a long-lasting trend, which can also be detected in federal elections:   |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on May 10, 2024 13:52:13 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 10, 2024 14:23:49 GMT
On that note, Puigdemont is now lurking on an industrial estate in Perpignan. |
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Post by mrpastelito on May 10, 2024 15:04:56 GMT
On that note, Puigdemont is now lurking on an industrial estate in Perpignan. So he's in Catalonia then  And the city's spelled Perpinyà, of course. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 10, 2024 15:08:34 GMT
Though if he's trying to suggest a unified independent Catalonia with both the French and Spanish halves I don't think he'll get very far. The French Catalans mostly seem to consider themselves quite separate
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Post by rcronald on May 10, 2024 15:34:50 GMT
Though if he's trying to suggest a unified independent Catalonia with both the French and Spanish halves I don't think he'll get very far. The French Catalans mostly seem to consider themselves quite separate The political division would be even more extreme than in Belgium… |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 10, 2024 15:47:43 GMT
Though if he's trying to suggest a unified independent Catalonia with both the French and Spanish halves I don't think he'll get very far. The French Catalans mostly seem to consider themselves quite separate The political division would be even more extreme than in Belgium… Yes, and that's saying something |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 10, 2024 16:17:11 GMT
The political division would be even more extreme than in Belgium… Yes, and that's saying something A handy sign of a strong sense of independence is having your own playing card patterns. French Catalonia is one such place. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 11, 2024 22:59:15 GMT
All polls since 2021 have had a majority for the left. Nearly none detected a maj. for the Catalan nationalists by votes:  ...but most May-polls claimed one of seats for them. Yet, often only with Alianca:  ...and as Junts have ruled out any coOperation with Alianca, a left coalition could be the only viable way. But in that case ERC could not blackmail PSC with a nat. government and would have to hand them over the premiership? |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 12, 2024 14:29:43 GMT
TurnOut was at 13:00 in the urban & unionist areas generally up, in the rural & nationalist ones only here and there:  |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 12, 2024 19:21:29 GMT
25% counted and it's a remarkable blowOut of the nationalist camp!
Pollsters have recorded, that the Catalan youth is upset by the permanent quarrels and generally more proSpain (like their grandParents).
Hard to see PSC not leading the next government. Perhaps ERC and/or Junts can blackmail them with their support for Sanchez in the federal Cortes.
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WJ
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Post by WJ on May 12, 2024 19:55:10 GMT
A really interesting set of results so far with 75% in. Left-wing independentists are down, but right-wing Junts are up and a new, strong-right party (Aliança Catalana) has got two seats. The nationalist parties are all up (not including the now extinct Ciudadanos) varying amounts. It will be fascinating to see what this will mean for governance.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on May 12, 2024 20:03:39 GMT
A really interesting set of results so far with 75% in. Left-wing independentists are down, but right-wing Junts are up and a new, strong-right party (Aliança Catalana) has got two seats. The nationalist parties are all up (not including the now extinct Ciudadanos) varying amounts. It will be fascinating to see what this will mean for governance. The left wing parties (PSC, ERC, Podem) are currently on just 68 seats, the exact number needed for a majority. Edit: and just as I post they've fallen to 67 |
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Post by rcronald on May 12, 2024 20:12:35 GMT
Looking at the pre-ban polls, it seems like ERC,CUP underperformed and that the other parties performed roughly as expected.
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WJ
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Post by WJ on May 12, 2024 21:46:19 GMT
With over 99% in, the Catalan parliament will look like this: | PSC (PSOE) | 42 | +9 | | Junts | 35 | +3 | | ERC | 20 | -13 | | PP | 15 | +12 | | Vox | 11 | 0 | | Comuns (Sumar) | 6 | -2 | | CUP | 4 | -5 | | AC | 2 | +2 | | Ciudadanos | 0 | -6 |
The independentistas have made a net loss of 13 seats. PSC, ERC and Comuns would have a majority of one and the early signs are that Junts would abstain on any vote to install such a coalition, allowing it to proceed. We will see what happens when the dust settles over the next few days. |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on May 12, 2024 22:13:56 GMT
The first loss of a nationalist majority since 1984. The ERC result is truly terrible.
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