Spanish elections (autonomous communities, locals)

[iain]

May 29, 2023 8:32:35 GMT iain said:

Finally found the full Canaries result:
PSOE - 23
CC - 19
PP - 16
NC - 4
Vox - 4
ASG - 3
AHI - 1

So once you add in AHI (El Hierro regionalists, associated with CC), the ‘right’ has a one seat majority. CC have happily worked with PSOE in the past though, so it’s basically up to them what happens.

As expected, PP and CC have agreed a coalition. They will need to work with AHI and / or ASG to get anything passed.

[Georg Ebner]

Cities&towns, which have either over 75.000 inhabitants or are provincial capitals:

[Georg Ebner]

OverView (since the introDuction of multiParty-DemoCracy) of provincial control:

[iain]

It looks likely that Extremadura will be getting new elections. Elections finished 33-32 in favour of the right, but the PP and Vox have failed to come to an agreement (the PP here is a bit more moderate and didn't want Vox in government, though they were willing to agree to a Vox President of the Assembly (Speaker) and programmatic agreement, so there's not that much between them), leading to Blanca Martín of PSOE being elected President of the Assembly.

[iain]

Jun 20, 2023 12:29:14 GMT iain said:

It looks likely that Extremadura will be getting new elections. Elections finished 33-32 in favour of the right, but the PP and Vox have failed to come to an agreement (the PP here is a bit more moderate and didn't want Vox in government, though they were willing to agree to a Vox President of the Assembly (Speaker) and programmatic agreement, so there's not that much between them), leading to Blanca Martín of PSOE being elected President of the Assembly.

The PP and Vox have now come to an agreement, and there will be a formal coalition with Vox ministers - so all talk from the PP in the end (no doubt a sign of things to come from Feijóo).

[The Bishop]

All these PP/Vox deals might be doing PSOE no harm in the upcoming general election, though.

[iain]

Jun 30, 2023 11:20:35 GMT The Bishop said:

All these PP/Vox deals might be doing PSOE no harm in the upcoming general election, though.

And indeed the last 4 polls have shown the PSOE very slightly up on their November 2019 performance (though still a little way back from the PP).

[WJ]

There's a possibility that we will see a similar type of result to Finland's election. The main left party actually gaining a couple of seats, but still ending up out of power due to changes in smaller parties.

[therealriga]

Jul 2, 2023 21:35:57 GMT WJ said:

There's a possibility that we will see a similar type of result to Finland's election. The main left party actually gaining a couple of seats, but still ending up out of power due to changes in smaller parties.

That's one of the two possibilities, the other is that there's an effective dead heat. Almost all polls have put PP + Vox on 175 to 180 seats. That's very narrow, with almost all the opposition parties against. Only UPN and CCa (Canaries) might be ready to enter confidence and supply arrangements and they will probably only have a single seat apiece. A second election is a possibility.

[Georg Ebner]

In 38/52 provinces the councils got elected indirectly. With 3 still missing here is the controlling party since 1979:

[Georg Ebner]

Provincial control
- 2019:

- 2023:

Key: yellow = Cs, light-yellow = Cs->Ind.; orange = left & green = right regionalists/nationalists; white = either not decided so far or the Canaries, which have rather councils per island.

[WJ]

Regional election in Galicia next week (18th). The PP currently have an absolute majority (42/75 seats). BNG are second with 19 seats and the local PSOE party is on 14. The other parties didn't get a look in.

Polling suggests that the PP will likely retain their absolute majority, although it could be tight. 38 seats are needed and polling averages suggest they'll get about 39 seats.

[WJ]

30% in. current state of play in terms of seats:

PP: 42 (0)
BNG: 22 (+3)
PSOE: 10 (-4)
DO: 1 (+1)

[mrpastelito]

Feb 18, 2024 20:20:46 GMT WJ said:

30% in. current state of play in terms of seats:

PP: 42 (0)
BNG: 22 (+3)
PSOE: 10 (-4)
DO: 1 (+1)

Who's DO?

Looking like a good night for the BNG, they're now on 25 (+6).

[WJ]

Feb 18, 2024 21:43:12 GMT mrpastelito said:

Feb 18, 2024 20:20:46 GMT WJ said:

30% in. current state of play in terms of seats:

PP: 42 (0)
BNG: 22 (+3)
PSOE: 10 (-4)
DO: 1 (+1)

Who's DO?

Looking like a good night for the BNG, they're now on 25 (+6).

A localist Ourense outfit

98% counted and things are unlikely to change:

PP 40 (-2)
PSOE 9 (-5)
BNG 25 (+6)
DO 1 (+1)

PP retain their absolute majority.

[mrpastelito]

Localists? Yay, good on them!

[Foggy]

Of note regarding media coverage: the regional public service broadcaster TVG invited both Sumar and Podemos to the TV debates. The former still managed to finish behind the shut-out Vox (2.2% vs 1.9%) while the latter finished eighth in the popular vote, behind even DO and animal rights party PACMA (who in turn had received even less coverage than micro-parties Common Space and For a Fairer World) – specifically 1,519 votes ahead of Podemos, thus cementing their recent status as 'best of the rest' in various Spanish polls.

Meanwhile elections to the Basque Parliament, which usually take place at the same time as Galician ones, have been announced for the 21st of April.

[Foggy]

Elections to the Parliament of Catalonia have been announced for the 12th of May.

Yes, that *is* just four weeks before all of Spain goes to the polls again for the European elections. Expect turnout in the pesky regions to be especially low for the latter vote.

[iain]

PSC are currently polling well, though there is still a pro-Independence majority in polling. The Basque election will be held 3 weeks earlier, where EH Bildu are challenging PNV for largest party status.

[iain]

Exit polls in the Basque Country have PNV and Bildu neck and neck, probably a slight edge to the former.