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Post by therealriga on Apr 8, 2023 3:48:24 GMT
Probably worth pointing out that two things can make a difference to the results: the threshold and malapportionment.
In terms of the latter, communities which are not autonomous cities or uniprovincial (a single constituency) usually guarantee each province a minimum number of seats. In the most extreme case, in the Basque country, all three provinces get 25 seats, even though the smallest, Álava, has 330,000 people and the largest, Biscay, has 1.15 million. That can help smaller parties like Teruel Existe. Asturias and the islands are the only ones which don't hold elections on the basis of provinces. Asturias splits its single province into 3 constituencies.
The threshold is toughest in Valencia which had consequences in 1999 when the Valencia Union got 6.5% in the Valencia constituency itself but no seats due to getting only 4.7% in the whole region, while United Left, which polled slightly less in the Valencia constituency, got 2 seats as they made the overall threshold.
Currently, the thresholds are:
15% in the whole region or 4% in a constituency: CANARIES
5% in the region/city: CANTABRIA*, CEUTA*, LA RIOJA*, MADRID*, MELILLA*, VALENCIA
5% in a constituency: BALEARICS, EXTREMADURA, Galicia,
3% in a constituency: ARAGON, ASTURIAS, CASTILLA-LA MANCHA, MURCIA*, NAVARRE*, Basque Country, Catalonia, Andalusia, Castile and León
[Those in capital letters have elections this year, those with an asterix operate a single constituency.]
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Post by rcronald on Apr 8, 2023 4:23:24 GMT
Still not sure why Sanchez didn’t call early elections, as it is well known that PSOE (and the rest of the Spanish left) tend to do badly in low turnout elections…..
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Post by therealriga on Apr 8, 2023 4:37:55 GMT
Still not sure why Sanchez didn’t call early elections, as it is well known that PSOE (and the rest of the Spanish left) tend to do badly in low turnout elections….. All polls this year have shown a PP lead of 4-5% so I don't see what they'd gain. Very likely they're gambling on the economy being in much better shape at the end of the year. |
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Post by rcronald on Apr 8, 2023 4:43:53 GMT
Still not sure why Sanchez didn’t call early elections, as it is well known that PSOE (and the rest of the Spanish left) tend to do badly in low turnout elections….. All polls this year have shown a PP lead of 4-5% so I don't see what they'd gain. Very likely they're gambling on the economy being in much better shape at the end of the year. I guess, but their regional bench is likely to get decimated because of the low turnout. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435 
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Post by iain on Apr 8, 2023 4:56:40 GMT
Sánchez also needs his coalition partners in Podemos / Sumar / whatever to get their act together, so waiting for Yolanda Díaz to try and sort things out makes sense.
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Post by therealriga on Apr 8, 2023 17:43:32 GMT
So with a month and a half to go till the regional elections, here's the current state of play according to opinion polls.
NO CHANGE EXPECTED
ARAGON: while polls have shown PP as the biggest party, Vox is the only party sure to back them. The Aragon Existe faction still looks more likely to support PSOE, as Teruel Existe did at national level.
ASTURIAS, CANARY ISLANDS: a PSOE-led left coalition looks like to return in both communities.
CANTABRIA: while the PP should overtake them, the Cantabrian Regional party should be able to get the backing of PSOE and Podemos to continue.
CEUTA: little change expected, with a PP minority administration set to continue.
EXTREMADURA: PSOE look like they'll lose their overall majority but should continue with Podemos support.
MADRID: the PP have headed the regional government since 1995. Citizens were allegedly conspiring with PSOE to bring down the government and president Diaz Ayuso of the PP called their bluff with a snap election in 2021, winning handsomely just short of an overall majority. Only question is if the PP can win an overall majority or will continue as a minority government.
MURCIA: as in Madrid, Citizens were accused of conspiring with PSOE. Both the Citizens and Vox groups split during the legislature with independents of both factions continuing to back the PP. Citizens are expected to lose all seats and PP are tipped to have more seats than both PSOE and Podemos combined. With Vox the only other party that should surely mean a PP minority government.
NAVARRE: this has varied in control during its history, but a leftist/regionalist government looks on track to continue.
TOSS-UP / UNCLEAR
BALEARIC ISLANDS: The latest poll put the incumbent left bloc on 28, the same number as PP and Vox. "Proposta per les illes", a centrist regional coalition formed in 2012, is projected to win 3 seats, same as they did in the previous 2 elections. They abstained in both the presidential votes then. One of the main successor parties, the Majorcan Union, had backed both the PP and the PSOE in the two elections before that, so it's unclear how they'd use the kingmaker role.
VALENCIA: A PSOE/regionalist alliance gained control in 2015, ending 20 years of PP-led governments. With 50 of the 99 seats needed for a majority, polls this year have shown PP+Vox with 49 to 51 seats. The latter grouping is favourite, but it's still up for grabs.
CHANGE LIKELY:
CASTILLA-LA MANCHA: the PSOE won an absolute majority last time, but polls show a PP minority backed by Vox as most likely. The PP have only governed in one legislature out of 10 (from 2011 to 2015.)
LA RIOJA: The left, headed by PSOE, won a 1-seat majority last time, bringing 24 years of right wing PP-led governments to an end. It looks that it will revert to type with a PP-led minority government.
MELILLA: was upgraded in status to an autonomous city in 1995. The PP had headed the government for all but 4 years until 2019 when the left parties backed the sole elected Citizens member as president. He left Citizens to sit as an independent and is expected to lose his seat. Polls have variously shown either PP-Vox or the regional Union for Melilla backed by PSOE with a 1-seat majority.
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Post by rcronald on Apr 8, 2023 18:03:45 GMT
So with a month and a half to go till the regional elections, here's the current state of play according to opinion polls. NO CHANGE EXPECTEDARAGON: while polls have shown PP as the biggest party, Vox is the only party sure to back them. The Aragon Existe faction still looks more likely to support PSOE, as Teruel Existe did at national level. ASTURIAS, CANARY ISLANDS: a PSOE-led left coalition looks like to return in both communities. CANTABRIA: while the PP should overtake them, the Cantabrian Regional party should be able to get the backing of PSOE and Podemos to continue. CEUTA: little change expected, with a PP minority administration set to continue. EXTREMADURA: PSOE look like they'll lose their overall majority but should continue with Podemos support. MADRID: the PP have headed the regional government since 1995. Citizens were allegedly conspiring with PSOE to bring down the government and president Diaz Ayuso of the PP called their bluff with a snap election in 2021, winning handsomely just short of an overall majority. Only question is if the PP can win an overall majority or will continue as a minority government. MURCIA: as in Madrid, Citizens were accused of conspiring with PSOE. Both the Citizens and Vox groups split during the legislature with independents of both factions continuing to back the PP. Citizens are expected to lose all seats and PP are tipped to have more seats than both PSOE and Podemos combined. With Vox the only other party that should surely mean a PP minority government. NAVARRE: this has varied in control during its history, but a leftist/regionalist government looks on track to continue. TOSS-UP / UNCLEARBALEARIC ISLANDS: The latest poll put the incumbent left bloc on 28, the same number as PP and Vox. "Proposta per les illes", a centrist regional coalition formed in 2012, is projected to win 3 seats, same as they did in the previous 2 elections. They abstained in both the presidential votes then. One of the main successor parties, the Majorcan Union, had backed both the PP and the PSOE in the two elections before that, so it's unclear how they'd use the kingmaker role. VALENCIA: A PSOE/regionalist alliance gained control in 2015, ending 20 years of PP-led governments. With 50 of the 99 seats needed for a majority, polls this year have shown PP+Vox with 49 to 51 seats. The latter grouping is favourite, but it's still up for grabs. CHANGE LIKELY:CASTILLA-LA MANCHA: the PSOE won an absolute majority last time, but polls show a PP minority backed by Vox as most likely. The PP have only governed in one legislature out of 10 (from 2011 to 2015.) LA RIOJA: The left, headed by PSOE, won a 1-seat majority last time, bringing 24 years of right wing PP-led governments to an end. It looks that it will revert to type with a PP-led minority government. MELILLA: was upgraded in status to an autonomous city in 1995. The PP had headed the government for all but 4 years until 2019 when the left parties backed the sole elected Citizens member as president. He left Citizens to sit as an independent and is expected to lose his seat. Polls have variously shown either PP-Vox or the regional Union for Melilla backed by PSOE with a 1-seat majority. The Canary Islands seems like a toss-up or even lean-right, as CC+PP seem to hold a narrow lead in the last 3 polls. While I think Existe! is probably going to seat with the left, I'm not sure ‘No change expected’ is the right category. |
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Post by therealriga on Apr 8, 2023 19:37:34 GMT
So with a month and a half to go till the regional elections, here's the current state of play according to opinion polls. NO CHANGE EXPECTEDARAGON: while polls have shown PP as the biggest party, Vox is the only party sure to back them. The Aragon Existe faction still looks more likely to support PSOE, as Teruel Existe did at national level. ASTURIAS, CANARY ISLANDS: a PSOE-led left coalition looks like to return in both communities. CANTABRIA: while the PP should overtake them, the Cantabrian Regional party should be able to get the backing of PSOE and Podemos to continue. CEUTA: little change expected, with a PP minority administration set to continue. EXTREMADURA: PSOE look like they'll lose their overall majority but should continue with Podemos support. MADRID: the PP have headed the regional government since 1995. Citizens were allegedly conspiring with PSOE to bring down the government and president Diaz Ayuso of the PP called their bluff with a snap election in 2021, winning handsomely just short of an overall majority. Only question is if the PP can win an overall majority or will continue as a minority government. MURCIA: as in Madrid, Citizens were accused of conspiring with PSOE. Both the Citizens and Vox groups split during the legislature with independents of both factions continuing to back the PP. Citizens are expected to lose all seats and PP are tipped to have more seats than both PSOE and Podemos combined. With Vox the only other party that should surely mean a PP minority government. NAVARRE: this has varied in control during its history, but a leftist/regionalist government looks on track to continue. TOSS-UP / UNCLEARBALEARIC ISLANDS: The latest poll put the incumbent left bloc on 28, the same number as PP and Vox. "Proposta per les illes", a centrist regional coalition formed in 2012, is projected to win 3 seats, same as they did in the previous 2 elections. They abstained in both the presidential votes then. One of the main successor parties, the Majorcan Union, had backed both the PP and the PSOE in the two elections before that, so it's unclear how they'd use the kingmaker role. VALENCIA: A PSOE/regionalist alliance gained control in 2015, ending 20 years of PP-led governments. With 50 of the 99 seats needed for a majority, polls this year have shown PP+Vox with 49 to 51 seats. The latter grouping is favourite, but it's still up for grabs. CHANGE LIKELY:CASTILLA-LA MANCHA: the PSOE won an absolute majority last time, but polls show a PP minority backed by Vox as most likely. The PP have only governed in one legislature out of 10 (from 2011 to 2015.) LA RIOJA: The left, headed by PSOE, won a 1-seat majority last time, bringing 24 years of right wing PP-led governments to an end. It looks that it will revert to type with a PP-led minority government. MELILLA: was upgraded in status to an autonomous city in 1995. The PP had headed the government for all but 4 years until 2019 when the left parties backed the sole elected Citizens member as president. He left Citizens to sit as an independent and is expected to lose his seat. Polls have variously shown either PP-Vox or the regional Union for Melilla backed by PSOE with a 1-seat majority. The Canary Islands seems like a toss-up or even lean-right, as CC+PP seem to hold a narrow lead in the last 3 polls. While I think Existe! is probably going to seat with the left, I'm not sure ‘No change expected’ is the right category. Yes, you're right on Canaries, I probably should put that in "toss-up." Existe is part of the wider "Empty Spain" movement and its groupings have tended to back the PSOE rather than PP, so I'd fully expect them to back the PSOE. |
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Apr 23, 2023 22:42:27 GMT
I saw my first sign of the upcoming elections today. A PP stall in a posher part of Gijón being manned by one of their candidates for the city council. No electoral litter through the post yet and no campaign posters anywhere else yet. I'll be out of Spain for the next couple of months unfortunately, so I'll miss all the excitement (as well as my opportunity to vote in the locals here).
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 27, 2023 15:44:31 GMT
DeViations of regions from national average in federal elections:   |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 28, 2023 17:47:24 GMT
In Madrid a high turnOut is reported.
If it turns out as many opinionPolls indicate - PP&VOX missing narrowlie(st) in most regions, but winning comfortably in the capital - the Ayuso-loyalists could start a leadership-disCussion from today night on (and she has certainly better chances then than DeSantis).
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iain
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Post by iain on May 28, 2023 17:53:39 GMT
Looks like turnout up everywhere except Cataluña / the Basque Country
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 28, 2023 18:06:46 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 28, 2023 18:37:23 GMT
Valencia (region) - the most important tossUp - goes according to ExitPolls narrowly to PP&VOX. Also Aragon. NewCastile&LaMancha perhaps not.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 28, 2023 18:43:33 GMT
As expected, excellent results for the Right in the cities of the South (where the land was left).
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 28, 2023 19:08:57 GMT
By the way: Public broadCaster RTVE has a liveStream at YouTube (under "RTVE Noticias").
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 28, 2023 19:18:12 GMT
Not 3% counted in MadridCity - but the left is ahead!
Mentioned this possibility, when phoning with a Madrider 2 hours ago as an - unlikely - possibility.
#GlobalTrends?
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 28, 2023 19:26:22 GMT
Not 3% counted in MadridCity - but the left is ahead! Mentioned this possibility, when phoning with a Madrider 2 hours ago as an - unlikely - possibility. #GlobalTrends? Of course: Early and PP has a weak candidate, but still it could mean the end for the last right city? |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 28, 2023 19:26:59 GMT
Remarkably weak numbers for PP in the cities of its leader's homeRegion Galicia...
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iain
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Post by iain on May 28, 2023 20:06:06 GMT
Remarkably weak numbers for PP in the cities of its leader's homeRegion Galicia... In fairness the cities in Galicia have always leaned a little left, and Galicia has been trending away from the right for a while. Generally looking good for PP, but not terrible for PSOE, who are defending from a high base. |
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