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Post by observer on Jun 19, 2022 19:20:00 GMT
22.5% of votes now counted.
On vote share so far the final projection is as follows:
PP 53
PSOE 33
Vox 15
Podemos splinters 8
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Post by observer on Jun 19, 2022 19:28:15 GMT
35% of votes now counted.
On vote share so far the final projection is as follows:
PP 53
PSOE 33
Vox 15
Podemos splinters 8
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 19, 2022 19:52:22 GMT
The media report 65% to be counted and the PP has been increasing further to 56/109 now, making an overallMajority likely.
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 19, 2022 21:26:02 GMT
35% of votes now counted. On vote share so far the final projection is as follows: PP 53 PSOE 33 Vox 15 Podemos splinters 8 Your source - whatever it was - was either very off or You mixed "prediction"&"forecast" of institutes with the seatDistribution during the actual countingProcess. |
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Post by observer on Jun 19, 2022 21:31:02 GMT
35% of votes now counted. On vote share so far the final projection is as follows: PP 53 PSOE 33 Vox 15 Podemos splinters 8 Your source - whatever it was - was either very off or You mixed "prediction"&"forecast" of institutes with the seatDistribution during the actual countingProcess. The explanation lies in the distribution of party support. Villages, which is where PSOE support is highest, may only have a few hundred votes to count. Consequently they declare their vote tallies first. Seat projections can be based on these...but they are likely to change as more PP-inclined areas declare later in the evening. That is exactly what we have seen tonight |
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Jun 19, 2022 21:44:47 GMT
A quite remarkable set of results with 99% of the vote counted:
PP 58 (+32)
PSOE 30 (-3)
VOX 14 (+2)
Podemos-types 5 (+5)
Andalusian regionalists 2 (-15)
Ciudadanos 0 (-21)
This will send jitters through the PSOE leadership (Andalusia is traditionally one of their strongholds) and it will sooth nerves in the PP camp as their leadership woes earlier in the year appear to not have influenced the electorate.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 20, 2022 2:30:11 GMT
Your source - whatever it was - was either very off or You mixed "prediction"&"forecast" of institutes with the seatDistribution during the actual countingProcess. The explanation lies in the distribution of party support. Villages, which is where PSOE support is highest, may only have a few hundred votes to count. Consequently they declare their vote tallies first. Seat projections can be based on these...but they are likely to change as more PP-inclined areas declare later in the evening. That is exactly what we have seen tonight Sure, but institutes, which make proJections, what the result will look like at the end,, price that in from the beginning and do usually not change a lot during the evening/night. I have unfortunately not been able to detect such a model, You were not willing to name Your source, so it was probably only the actual count. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 20, 2022 2:32:58 GMT
Disappointingly little of numberCrunching & maps this time in the media - the deCline of the West has reached them?
El Diario provides most, as usual.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 20, 2022 17:24:20 GMT
A quite remarkable set of results with 99% of the vote counted: PP 58 (+32) PSOE 30 (-3) VOX 14 (+2) Podemos-types 5 (+5) Andalusian regionalists 2 (-15) Ciudadanos 0 (-21) This will send jitters through the PSOE leadership (Andalusia is traditionally one of their strongholds) and it will sooth nerves in the PP camp as their leadership woes earlier in the year appear to not have influenced the electorate. Nice to see the regionalists take a kicking, especially as they were really just Podemos splinters. Is there a more embarrassing nationalism in Spain that Andalusian nationalism? Other than the weirdos who want the Canaries to switch from Spanish to reconstructed Guanche. |
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Jun 20, 2022 18:26:18 GMT
A quite remarkable set of results with 99% of the vote counted: PP 58 (+32) PSOE 30 (-3) VOX 14 (+2) Podemos-types 5 (+5) Andalusian regionalists 2 (-15) Ciudadanos 0 (-21) This will send jitters through the PSOE leadership (Andalusia is traditionally one of their strongholds) and it will sooth nerves in the PP camp as their leadership woes earlier in the year appear to not have influenced the electorate. Nice to see the regionalists take a kicking, especially as they were really just Podemos splinters. Is there a more embarrassing nationalism in Spain that Andalusian nationalism? Other than the weirdos who want the Canaries to switch from Spanish to reconstructed Guanche. I'd say on a par with the regionalists in Murcia who insist that their minor dialect should be considered a full language or the delusional Cantabria who's identity is distinctive only because it has no distinct identity, unlike most of it's neighbours. Asturias has the right balance. A strong regional identity which is marked by real differences in culture, history and linguistics from its neighbours. But who's regional identity is not in conflict with a "Spanish" identity. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 20, 2022 19:51:57 GMT
Nice to see the regionalists take a kicking, especially as they were really just Podemos splinters. Is there a more embarrassing nationalism in Spain that Andalusian nationalism? Other than the weirdos who want the Canaries to switch from Spanish to reconstructed Guanche. . Asturias has the right balance. A strong regional identity which is marked by real differences in culture, history and linguistics from its neighbours. But who's regional identity is not in conflict with a "Spanish" identity. If you're ever in Madrid, and near the San Fernando food market - there's a cracking Asturian bar there with great traditional food and cider. And opposite is a Venezuelan stall that does brilliant empanadas. |
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Post by therealriga on Jun 20, 2022 19:54:23 GMT
Nice to see the regionalists take a kicking, especially as they were really just Podemos splinters. Is there a more embarrassing nationalism in Spain that Andalusian nationalism? Other than the weirdos who want the Canaries to switch from Spanish to reconstructed Guanche. I'd say on a par with the regionalists in Murcia who insist that their minor dialect should be considered a full language or the delusional Cantabria who's identity is distinctive only because it has no distinct identity, unlike most of it's neighbours. Asturias has the right balance. A strong regional identity which is marked by real differences in culture, history and linguistics from its neighbours. But who's regional identity is not in conflict with a "Spanish" identity. The right-wing Valencian nationalists were loony. Insisting Valenciano was its own language and totally different from Catalan when really it was a bit of an American vs British English thing. Huge paranoia about Catalans taking them over etc, jitters when any prominent Catalan politician even sneezed. |
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Jun 20, 2022 20:27:24 GMT
I'd say on a par with the regionalists in Murcia who insist that their minor dialect should be considered a full language or the delusional Cantabria who's identity is distinctive only because it has no distinct identity, unlike most of it's neighbours. Asturias has the right balance. A strong regional identity which is marked by real differences in culture, history and linguistics from its neighbours. But who's regional identity is not in conflict with a "Spanish" identity. The right-wing Valencian nationalists were loony. Insisting Valenciano was its own language and totally different from Catalan when really it was a bit of an American vs British English thing. Huge paranoia about Catalans taking them over etc, jitters when any prominent Catalan politician even sneezed. A thesis on inter-regional paranoia in Spain would run to several volumes. A couple of years ago Leon started thinking aloud about separating from Castille and to join up with Asturias (without consulting Asturias first). It was all anyone was talking about in Gijon for a week! |
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Jun 20, 2022 20:28:35 GMT
. Asturias has the right balance. A strong regional identity which is marked by real differences in culture, history and linguistics from its neighbours. But who's regional identity is not in conflict with a "Spanish" identity. If you're ever in Madrid, and near the San Fernando food market - there's a cracking Asturian bar there with great traditional food and cider. And opposite is a Venezuelan stall that does brilliant empanadas. I'm getting hitched to an Asturian. I will mention to him that I've heard there's a very good Asturian restaurant in Madrid that we should investigate and I will enjoy his reaction. |
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Post by therealriga on Jun 20, 2022 22:22:32 GMT
A couple of years ago Leon started thinking aloud about separating from Castille and to join up with Asturias (without consulting Asturias first). It was all anyone was talking about in Gijon for a week! Oh yeah I remember that. There's even a political party which advocates that Leon should have its own community (Union del Pueblo Leones) that had seats in the regional assembly. To be fair, it's not actually the worst idea on historic and minority language grounds. To add to the fun there seems to be a regional unionist party there as well. No one does batty regional parties better than Spain. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regionalist_Unity_of_Castile_and_Le%C3%B3nThere are similar groups in Treviño (the weird large blob in the middle of the Basque province of Alava, which actually belongs to Burgos province) which advocate for it joining the Basques. Again, they have a reasonable case. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_Group_of_the_Condado_de_Trevi%C3%B1o |
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 22, 2022 4:08:44 GMT
Pollster-perFormances per party for - perCentages (TargetPoint had the lowest deViations [less than 1% per party]):  - seats (GAD3 did best):  |
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 25, 2022 9:35:28 GMT
I have collected on Andalusia too much for being able to copy it easily into GoogleDrive (450 elements, 235 MB), but perhaps anyone is interested in certain aspects especially?
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Post by observer on Jun 25, 2022 10:05:24 GMT
I have collected on Andalusia too much for being able to copy it easily into GoogleDrive (450 elements, 235 MB), but perhaps anyone is interested in certain aspects especially? Great work but I have enough to absorb already |
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Apr 3, 2023 21:39:29 GMT
Spanish regional elections are to be held on the 28th of May in 12 of the 17 regions (namely: Aragon, Asturias, Balearics, Canaries, Cantabria, Castilla- La Mancha, Ceuta, Extremadura, La Rioja, Madrid, Melilla, Murcia, Navarre and Valenciana).
Meanwhile local elections will he held everywhere in the country, including those regions with no regional elections (Andalucia, Basque Country, Castile Leon, Catalonia and Galicia).
As one would imagine in such a decentralised country, there will be regional forces at play which will diverge from the general picture. However these elections will inevitably be seen as a dress rehearsal for the General Election which will be held before the 10th of December.
We can expect a Ciudadanos bloodbath across the country and we will likely see some big gains for Vox. The PP will be hoping to replicate their historic gains in Andalucia last year in other parts of the country. The PSOE can probably expect losses and the various Podemos splinter groups, even more so (although their success will be more tightly linked to regional trends than the big parties).
The more truculent communities are not voting in the regionals, so we won't get a taste of how their regionalist/separatist parties might do in December. But regionalists with potential general election crossover appeal to look out for this time are the Cantabrian Regionalists, who lead the government in their community and the wonderfully existential ¡Teruel Existe! who will be hoping to make inroads in Aragon after managing to get an MP into the national parliament in 2019.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 4, 2023 0:19:12 GMT
Lots of tossUps according to the opinionPolls.
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