iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435 
|
Post by iain on May 28, 2023 20:08:37 GMT
Looks like PP will take the mayoralty of Seville away from PSOE. Madrid (city) looks like a comfortable PP win (as expected).
Barcelona the expected three way fight between Junts (or whatever they are calling themselves), PSC and En Comu
|
|
|
|
Post by aargauer on May 28, 2023 20:48:15 GMT
It's geoblocking me in Switzerland!!! |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
|
Post by Georg Ebner on May 28, 2023 21:05:28 GMT
How misleading maps can be - this is the (incomplete) map of changes in 1st place:  ...with PSOE seemingly increasing its grip on rural Andalusia. But this is the region's summary:  Doubtlessly caused by the rise of VOX and the deCline of the FarLeft. |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
|
Post by Georg Ebner on May 28, 2023 21:13:56 GMT
Remarkably weak numbers for PP in the cities of its leader's homeRegion Galicia... In fairness the cities in Galicia have always leaned a little left, and Galicia has been trending away from the right for a while. Yes, they have "always" been leftier than their surRounding, but when Galicia was a cons. fortress the PP performed there very differently than in today's blowOuts. Cf. mayors:  |
|
WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,267
|
Post by WJ on May 28, 2023 21:24:35 GMT
Things are much tighter than expected in Asturias, which is a reliable left-wing bastion. Currently the left block leads by 23-22 seats. 20% of the vote still to come in there... in the municipalities, Foro (an Asturian regionalist PP splinter group) has surged ahead in Gijón, alongside a surge in the PP vote and could come close to flipping the city to the right.
In British terms, on the regional level, if the right bloc take the majority this would be akin to the Tories when they got more votes than Labour in County Durham in 2019.
Currently being plagued by hay-fever so I'm unfortunately limiting screen time tonight and not following as closely as I'd like.
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
|
Post by iain on May 28, 2023 21:44:06 GMT
Things are much tighter than expected in Asturias, which is a reliable left-wing bastion. Currently the left block leads by 23-22 seats. 20% of the vote still to come in there... in the municipalities, Foro (an Asturian regionalist PP splinter group) has surged ahead in Gijón, alongside a surge in the PP vote and could come close to flipping the city to the right. In British terms, on the regional level, if the right bloc take the majority this would be akin to the Tories when they got more votes than Labour in County Durham in 2019. Currently being plagued by hay-fever so I'm unfortunately limiting screen time tonight and not following as closely as I'd like. Though the right have run Asturias before, most recently in 2011. The results are looking very good for the right generally - lots of close calls going their way. There has definitely been a swing to them, but the bigger story (which may well also be key at the GE) is the increased efficiency of their vote due to the death of Ciudadanos. |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
|
Post by Georg Ebner on May 28, 2023 22:14:15 GMT
Presently it looks like the right will win all reachable regions (Castilla-LaMancha & Extremdura being close; surprisingly also - as mentioned - Asturias [although i had been rather surprised, that the opinionPolls had not detected any swing to the right]). Unexpectedly strong in Valenciana and the Baleares (the latter probably also helped by scandals within the left regional government). Lots of cities were by them won/gained: Madrid, Valencia, Sevilla, Zaragoza aso. In the councils PP increased its votes by 9%, VOX doubled to over 7%. But indeed: PSOE lost little (-1.2%). PP&VOX gained - apart from Cs' losses (-7.4%) - ~5%, thus recovering from a poor result in 2019:  |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on May 28, 2023 22:16:33 GMT
It's geoblocking me in Switzerland!!! It's blocked here now as well but was accessible before |
|
|
|
Post by therealriga on May 28, 2023 22:43:41 GMT
I'm looking at the results around my usual stomping ground of Valencia. Overall, the PSOE seems to have held up much better than expected. The general trend I'm seeing is: PSOE holding, even gaining the odd seat here and there. PP gaining, but not massively. Vox gaining by a bit more than PP. Compromís (left-wing regionalists) dropping a bit. Podemos doing poorly, often missing the 5% threshold. Ciudadanos (Cs) being wiped out. The wipeout of Cs is helping PSOE reduce losses and usually return with the same numbers but the losses for their allies Podemos and Compromís is costing them, resulting in some municipalities going to PP minority backed by Vox. That said, Compromís had an even more xenophobic policy than Vox, proposing to ban foreigners from buying property in Valencia region. inspain.news/compromis-valencia-wants-to-limit-sales-of-homes-to-foreigners/ |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
|
Post by Georg Ebner on May 29, 2023 2:40:12 GMT
Cities (75.000+ & prov.capitals): Mayors & plus seat-majorities 2023:  |
|
|
|
Post by rcronald on May 29, 2023 3:41:22 GMT
Outside of Castilla-La Mancha, car crash results for the left.
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
|
Post by iain on May 29, 2023 7:04:58 GMT
So we’ve gone from a relatively narrow left wing victory, made to look much better due to splits on the right, to a narrow right wing victory, made to look much better due to splits on the left.
By region:
Aragon - the left is hopelessly split here, allowing a slightly unexpected right wing majority. Good results for both PP & Vox.
Asturias - the left just about clings on. Probably a little close for comfort, but not very different from what polls were showing.
Balearic - very good results for the right, with both parties outperforming expectations.
Canaries - still unclear what is going to happen, not helped by news sites excluding 9 seats from the count. Might well end up as PSOE-CC, or CC-PP may find support from one of the small insular parties (CC won’t work with Vox).
Cantabria - good results for PP, decent for PSOE but terrible for the PRC. Slightly unexpected win for the right due to the poor regionalist showing.
Castilla-La-Mancha - genuinely very good result for PSOE. No-one gave them much of a hope of holding the region even on a much better night than this, but they retained their majority. Not sure what the reasons were.
Extremadura - bit of a surprise as the right won a very narrow majority. Only a swing of 1 seat from most polls, but the left losing comes as a bit of a shock due to the history of the region.
La Rioja - very good result for the PP to win a majority on their own. Outperformed expectations largely thanks to the failure of the Riojan Party to make it into the Assembly.
Madrid - Ayuso (PP) won her expected majority thanks to Podemos falling below the 5% threshold.
Murcia - a bigger right wing blow out than expected, though PP still fell a little short of a majority thanks to the strength of Vox.
Navarra - mostly a no change election, it is GBai (the PNV) who will be a little disappointed. The left just about retains a lead over the right without Bildu, so will only need abstentions to govern, which is good news for them.
Valencia - excellent results for the right in the night’s biggest prize. Podemos missing the threshold handed them a decent majority in what would otherwise have been a very tight race.
Overall there is a clear message for the parties to the left of PSOE - work together under Sumar. If they do that there is a narrow path to a continuation of this government later in the year, but it is a lesson they continually seem unwilling to learn.
Vox is going to be in government in a lot of regions now, a rather worrying prospect, and it will be interesting to see how the PP deals with that.
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
|
Post by iain on May 29, 2023 8:32:35 GMT
Finally found the full Canaries result:
PSOE - 23
CC - 19
PP - 16
NC - 4
Vox - 4
ASG - 3
AHI - 1
So once you add in AHI (El Hierro regionalists, associated with CC), the ‘right’ has a one seat majority. CC have happily worked with PSOE in the past though, so it’s basically up to them what happens.
|
|
|
|
Post by rcronald on May 29, 2023 9:58:26 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by aargauer on May 29, 2023 16:44:26 GMT
I'm looking at the results around my usual stomping ground of Valencia. Overall, the PSOE seems to have held up much better than expected. The general trend I'm seeing is: PSOE holding, even gaining the odd seat here and there. PP gaining, but not massively. Vox gaining by a bit more than PP. Compromís (left-wing regionalists) dropping a bit. Podemos doing poorly, often missing the 5% threshold. Ciudadanos (Cs) being wiped out. The wipeout of Cs is helping PSOE reduce losses and usually return with the same numbers but the losses for their allies Podemos and Compromís is costing them, resulting in some municipalities going to PP minority backed by Vox. That said, Compromís had an even more xenophobic policy than Vox, proposing to ban foreigners from buying property in Valencia region. inspain.news/compromis-valencia-wants-to-limit-sales-of-homes-to-foreigners/That is really not a xenophobic policy. It’s pretty normal - in place in numerous western countries including Canada, Switzerland, New Zealand. It’s not a ban on foreigners buying properties - but a ban on foreign non-residents. That’s an important distinction. |
|
|
|
Post by groznik on May 29, 2023 17:44:36 GMT
I'm looking at the results around my usual stomping ground of Valencia. Overall, the PSOE seems to have held up much better than expected. The general trend I'm seeing is: PSOE holding, even gaining the odd seat here and there. PP gaining, but not massively. Vox gaining by a bit more than PP. Compromís (left-wing regionalists) dropping a bit. Podemos doing poorly, often missing the 5% threshold. Ciudadanos (Cs) being wiped out. The wipeout of Cs is helping PSOE reduce losses and usually return with the same numbers but the losses for their allies Podemos and Compromís is costing them, resulting in some municipalities going to PP minority backed by Vox. That said, Compromís had an even more xenophobic policy than Vox, proposing to ban foreigners from buying property in Valencia region. inspain.news/compromis-valencia-wants-to-limit-sales-of-homes-to-foreigners/That is really not a xenophobic policy. It’s pretty normal - in place in numerous western countries including Canada, Switzerland, New Zealand. It’s not a ban on foreigners buying properties - but a ban on foreign non-residents. That’s an important distinction. Totally correct. In New Zealand no residential property can be purchased by a foreigner without Permanent Residency status. Australia allows non-residents to buy new build apartments off plan (needless to say a lot of marketing of these goes on in East Asia). The NZ ban came after there was a temporary relaxation of Chinese Foreign Exchange controls in 2014-15 and people keen to get their money out of China seemingly purchased anything sight unseen. One prominent Labour Party MP Phil Twyford publicly blamed people with ‘Chinese sounding names’ for Auckland’s housing problems and the Labour led Government introduced the ban shortly after being elected in 2017. Needless to say, prices continued to go up until early 2022 and the housing problems have become noticeably worse. |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
|
Post by Georg Ebner on May 29, 2023 17:47:35 GMT
Castilla-La-Mancha - genuinely very good result for PSOE. No-one gave them much of a hope of holding the region even on a much better night than this, but they retained their majority. Not sure what the reasons were. Extremadura - bit of a surprise as the right won a very narrow majority. Only a swing of 1 seat from most polls, but the left losing comes as a bit of a shock due to the history of the region. Castilla-LaMancha & Extremadura had been polled as tossUps, with the left bloc being minimally favoured. The PSOE-baron in the former has been a vocal critic of the federal government, what might explain his narrow surVival. Extremadura had already a PP-rule (apart from being a right stronghold 40 years ago) and as in Asturias the irritating thing has rather been, that the opinionPolls detected no shift to the right. OtherWise i fully agree. |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
|
Post by Georg Ebner on May 29, 2023 17:54:05 GMT
Outside of Castilla-La Mancha, car crash results for the left. And Asturias - 2 seats saved PSOE from total public humiliation. |
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
|
Post by iain on May 29, 2023 18:12:34 GMT
Castilla-La-Mancha - genuinely very good result for PSOE. No-one gave them much of a hope of holding the region even on a much better night than this, but they retained their majority. Not sure what the reasons were. Extremadura - bit of a surprise as the right won a very narrow majority. Only a swing of 1 seat from most polls, but the left losing comes as a bit of a shock due to the history of the region. Castilla-LaMancha & Extremadura had been polled as tossUps, with the left bloc being minimally favoured. The PSOE-baron in the former has been a vocal critic of the federal government, what might explain his narrow surVival. Extremadura had already a PP-rule (apart from being a right stronghold 40 years ago) and as in Asturias the irritating thing has rather been, that the opinionPolls detected no shift to the right. OtherWise i fully agree. The right was definitely favoured in Castilla-La-Mancha this time around - certainly it was expected to fall before Valencia, Aragon, (especially) Extremadura. On average I think the polls were pretty good, but the results tended to be ~1 seat more to the right - normally wouldn’t matter much, but the massive number of tossups made it look like the right overperformed by more. |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
|
Post by Georg Ebner on May 30, 2023 0:14:15 GMT
Castilla-LaMancha & Extremadura had been polled as tossUps, with the left bloc being minimally favoured. The PSOE-baron in the former has been a vocal critic of the federal government, what might explain his narrow surVival. Extremadura had already a PP-rule (apart from being a right stronghold 40 years ago) and as in Asturias the irritating thing has rather been, that the opinionPolls detected no shift to the right. OtherWise i fully agree. The right was definitely favoured in Castilla-La-Mancha this time around - certainly it was expected to fall before Valencia, Aragon, (especially) Extremadura. On paper sure. But in the opinionPolls all 3 (so apart from Extr.) were roughly the same: TossUps, with the left minimally favoured. |
|
