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Post by Tangent on May 8, 2018 22:15:04 GMT
I wouldn't be entirely shocked by a LD gain at this by-election. I would. I wouldn't be surprised if we raised out vote share and would be merely delighted and amazed if we finished second. But winning would cause me to check no-one had spiked my drink with LSD. I think four things would have to occur for the LDs to win this bye. There would have to be poor turnout from the rock hard Labour voters in the seat. Faction fighting in Labour over the selection would have to get serious enough to cause major negative coverage, and depress part of the committed Labour vote. The LDs would have to pull in the well-heeled liberal Remain vote in around Blackheath & Lee Green, and lower income graduate gentrifiers elsewhere in the seat, while also pulling in the kind of traditional working-class/lower-middle voter in Downham and the fringes of Hither Green & Grove Park who might turn up for a Leave/tough on crime campaign (and, of course, the Vincent affair in this seat does leave an opening for someone to run such a campaign). The chances of getting all four factors working in LD favour are not non-existent, but are not really serious. I can't see, at the moment, a decent local issue apart from Vincent which would have traction across the seat. |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on May 8, 2018 22:28:17 GMT
Finally, I do think some of you including some who perhaps ought to know better are getting a little over-excited. The panel which shortlisted me had a left majority but treated the candidates strictly on merit, and I was the only recognisable left-winger who was shortlisted (though Sachin Patel is left-wing on some issues). This is what is almost certain to happen now with the NEC's current balance (the shortlisting committee won't be any more left-wing than the one which shortlisted me).The NEC won't exclude "moderates" from the shortlist unless the calibre of the candidates is poor and the CLP is likely to select someone who is not on the left of the party from the shortlist provided, if they give a good account of themselves. I myself will certainly not be applying. I think there's a fair chance that the candidate will be reasonably local and from a minority ethnic group, because not many BME candidates have been picked for the marginals and there is a feeling that this isn't good enough |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on May 8, 2018 22:29:52 GMT
Confirmed that Val Shawcross is retiring as Deputy Mayor for Transport, and Heidi Alexander has agreed to fill the role. Don't have you have to be elected to the Greater London Assembly to hold a position like this? You'd think so, but in fact it's considered preferable for the Mayor's Deputies (his Cabinet of sorts) to be separate from the Assembly. It's one of the many flaws in the GLA Act 1999 that demonstrates how it wasn't really thought out properly. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 8, 2018 22:31:07 GMT
Chris Maines still seems to be active in this area for whatever that is worth
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Post by greenchristian on May 8, 2018 22:33:12 GMT
Don't have you have to be elected to the Greater London Assembly to hold a position like this? You'd think so, but in fact it's considered preferable for the Mayor's Deputies (his Cabinet of sorts) to be separate from the Assembly. It's one of the many flaws in the GLA Act 1999 that demonstrates how it wasn't really thought out properly. It's still better thought out than these new Combined Authorities, though. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 8, 2018 22:34:08 GMT
Don't have you have to be elected to the Greater London Assembly to hold a position like this? You'd think so, but in fact it's considered preferable for the Mayor's Deputies (his Cabinet of sorts) to be separate from the Assembly. It's one of the many flaws in the GLA Act 1999 that demonstrates how it wasn't really thought out properly. I have an alternative viewpoint. The 1999 Act envisaged that there would be a Mayor, and a single Deputy Mayor - chosen from the Assembly. That was how it was done under Ken Livingstone. The second person to be elected Mayor of London decided not to do it like that, and instead gave several people the title "Deputy Mayor". One of these, who was from the Assembly, was termed as the "Statutory Deputy Mayor", a term which had no official status but was needed to make that post distinct. That approach has been continued by Sadiq Khan, possibly in ignorance of the fact that it has no real basis. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2018 22:40:01 GMT
Finally, I do think some of you including some who perhaps ought to know better are getting a little over-excited. The panel which shortlisted me had a left majority but treated the candidates strictly on merit, and I was the only recognisable left-winger who was shortlisted (though Sachin Patel is left-wing on some issues). This is what is almost certain to happen now with the NEC's current balance (the shortlisting committee won't be any more left-wing than the one which shortlisted me).The NEC won't exclude "moderates" from the shortlist unless the calibre of the candidates is poor and the CLP is likely to select someone who is not on the left of the party from the shortlist provided, if they give a good account of themselves. I myself will certainly not be applying. Pity. Lewisham deserves to feel the Barn. |
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on May 8, 2018 22:50:31 GMT
This thread is startig to get silly with some on here are busy spectulating the gender, sexuality and skin colour of the prospective labour canditate.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2018 22:54:02 GMT
This thread is startig to get silly with some on here are busy spectulating the gender, sexuality and skin colour of the prospective labour canditate. On the whole, by-election threads on this forum take one of three directions in the early stages, between the resignation/death/whatever and the start of candidate selection processes: Direction 1 is "speculate wildly about the likelihood of shock results and ramped up performances of minor parties before settling down into realism." Direction 2 is "speculate wildly about the defending party's candidate choices before settling down into statistical to-and-fro." Direction 3 is "this is an obscure Welsh/Scottish/Northern Irish constituency about which we know nothing so let's have some graphs, tweets and newspaper headlines before settling down into two months of inactivity." |
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mboy
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Post by mboy on May 8, 2018 23:35:55 GMT
I wouldn't be entirely shocked by a LD gain at this by-election. I would. I wouldn't be surprised if we raised out vote share and would be merely delighted and amazed if we finished second. But winning would cause me to check no-one had spiked my drink with LSD. It would obviously be a huge shock. But...let's not forget that people who had seen the canvassing data on the Manchester Gorton by election claim that in the last 2 weeks before it was cancelled (due to Theresa May's general election) there were huge shifts appearing. This all got squashed by the General, of course, but at least a Vauxhall 2017 ish result is pretty likely IMO. |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on May 8, 2018 23:54:47 GMT
You'd think so, but in fact it's considered preferable for the Mayor's Deputies (his Cabinet of sorts) to be separate from the Assembly. It's one of the many flaws in the GLA Act 1999 that demonstrates how it wasn't really thought out properly. I have an alternative viewpoint. The 1999 Act envisaged that there would be a Mayor, and a single Deputy Mayor - chosen from the Assembly. That was how it was done under Ken Livingstone. The second person to be elected Mayor of London decided not to do it like that, and instead gave several people the title "Deputy Mayor". One of these, who was from the Assembly, was termed as the "Statutory Deputy Mayor", a term which had no official status but was needed to make that post distinct. That approach has been continued by Sadiq Khan, possibly in ignorance of the fact that it has no real basis. Thank you. Apart from trying to guess Sadiq Khan's level of knowledge about the history of the post, this appears to be a point of fact rather than a viewpoint. Of course I think there were more flaws in the Act (subsequently tweaked but not corrected) than just the nature of the executive and its relationship with the Assembly. To keep things on topic, though, I accept that the 1999 Act hasn't caused this by-election! |
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k9
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Post by k9 on May 9, 2018 4:54:07 GMT
Putting aside the choice of candidate for the moment, who will actually run the campaigns? That may be an indicator of how seriously each party are taking it?
For example, in the older days you knew if Rennard was running a campaign then it would be a nailed on gain.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 9, 2018 5:42:36 GMT
The obvious choice for Lewisham East is Katie Ghose. The local choice for somewhere.
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on May 9, 2018 5:56:58 GMT
Lewisham East, rise up! And Störm break loose!
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 9, 2018 6:20:37 GMT
I would. I wouldn't be surprised if we raised out vote share and would be merely delighted and amazed if we finished second. But winning would cause me to check no-one had spiked my drink with LSD. It would obviously be a huge shock. But...let's not forget that people who had seen the canvassing data on the Manchester Gorton by election claim that in the last 2 weeks before it was cancelled (due to Theresa May's general election) there were huge shifts appearing. This all got squashed by the General, of course, but at least a Vauxhall 2017 ish result is pretty likely IMO. While getting another MP is a big deal for a party like ours, the main thing is the publicity. A result like that would be very handy. |
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Post by andrew111 on May 9, 2018 7:53:32 GMT
I would. I wouldn't be surprised if we raised out vote share and would be merely delighted and amazed if we finished second. But winning would cause me to check no-one had spiked my drink with LSD. Having your drink spiked by the maligned initialism of the early version of the merged party would be quite a thing indeed! Make sure nobody spikes your SaLaD....   I got elected under that label to Leeds City Council... |
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Post by andrew111 on May 9, 2018 8:09:33 GMT
I would. I wouldn't be surprised if we raised out vote share and would be merely delighted and amazed if we finished second. But winning would cause me to check no-one had spiked my drink with LSD. It would obviously be a huge shock. But...let's not forget that people who had seen the canvassing data on the Manchester Gorton by election claim that in the last 2 weeks before it was cancelled (due to Theresa May's general election) there were huge shifts appearing. This all got squashed by the General, of course, but at least a Vauxhall 2017 ish result is pretty likely IMO. Yes, quite. The Lib Dems went from 6.9% to 20.5% in Vauxhall on a General Election day when most Labour voters appeared to think Corbyn was in favour of Remaining... And yes, I canvassed in Gorton, and was getting 30% LD support in a strongly Asian area. A strong second in Gorton without the General Election was not hype, and the capacity to mount a full by-election campaign is much greater for the Lib Dems in London than Manchester at the moment.. The sooner the writ is moved, the more worried Labour are, I would say. A LD win is a very low probability, but second place reasonably likely, I would say |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on May 9, 2018 8:23:23 GMT
But that's because the Vauxhall Labour candidate was Kate Hoey who had spent much of the referendum campaign salivating like a puppy over Farage.
That's hardly going to be replicated anywhere else
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2018 8:28:17 GMT
Lewisham East is mostly morphed into "Lewisham and Catford" by the Boundary Commission in the current/zombie/never ending review.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2018 10:12:31 GMT
From Huffington Post
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