andrea
Non-Aligned
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Post by andrea on May 8, 2018 16:36:31 GMT
I hesitate to disagree but Clause IV Section 6 of the Rule Book states “In all circumstances (i.e. where there is no MP, where the MP has announced s/he is retiring or where the MP is putting themselves forward for re-selection but has failed to win the trigger ballot) the CLP Shortlisting Committee shall draw up a shortlist of interested candidates to present to all members of the CLP who are eligible to vote in accordance with Clause I.1.A above.”, and from recent memory the whole process in Stoke Central last year following Tristram Hunt’s resignation was handled by the CLP and our then Regional Officer for North Staffordshire. Not according to Labourlist: labourlist.org/2017/01/exclusive-labours-shortlist-for-stoke/"Officials from Labour’s ruling national executive committee whittled down the longlist of 11 yesterday." according to the Guardian, the shortlisting panel for Stoke Central was composed by Keith Vaz, Glenis Willmott, Keith Birch and Rhea Wolfson
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
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Post by timmullen1 on May 8, 2018 16:40:45 GMT
according to the Guardian, the shortlisting panel for Stoke Central was composed of Keith Vaz, Glenis Willmott, Keith Birch and Rhea Wolfson Yes, and IIRC correctly they had to go without Glenis Willmott as there was a European PLP equivalent of a Three Line Whip meaning she was unable to get away from Brussels. UKIP especially also tried to get some mileage out of Keith Vaz being on the panel following the tabloid sting of him. (In the words of Celine Dion, it’s all coming back to me now!).
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k9
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Post by k9 on May 8, 2018 16:45:01 GMT
Early odds from Ladbrokes: Labour are an unbackable 1/33. Somewhat surprisingly, they give Lib Dems 16/1 and the Tories 33/1. That 16/1 might be worth a tenner, but no more. Greens at 100/1 and UKIP 500/1, though I'm surprised they quote odds for UKIP at all. However, all this is in advance of any candidates being selected. Lib Dems changed to 12/1 just now when I checked...
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 8, 2018 16:50:50 GMT
AWL will claim not to be a political party as such, surely? Just googled and turns out they deregistered as a party in 2015 after Corbyn's victory. They're a former party with no organisation and no sort of network or influence in the same way that the RCP are.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 8, 2018 16:53:03 GMT
I'm not saying it's likely! But it's not like the two parties haven't entered pacts before... and it's not completely impossible to think the Lib Dems would do it just to have the favour returned at a later by-election. It's more the idea of the Greens as a vehicle to campaign for the single market that's extraordinary, really. Though I do accept that the leadership have been making noises in that direction recently. How is the membership coping with these noises? Especially given the quite loud past scepticism of the EU's economics.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 8, 2018 18:14:19 GMT
I know people who are in the AWL. I can tell you categorically that Momentum is not even remotely in the hands of the AWL! Indeed, very few things could be further from the truth. Momentum is tightly controlled by Jon Lansman, whose politics are totally different from those of the AWL. Momentum might not be as a whole, but the Graun implication is firmly that they are in Lewisham East. I shall have to tap up my contact in Lewisham Labour.
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on May 8, 2018 19:24:43 GMT
Is it worth mentioning that Alexander herself said when her job change was first “rumoured” that Momentum had only set up a Branch in East last month as part of the local election campaign, and were far more organised in the Deptford constituency.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 8, 2018 19:31:49 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2018 19:46:42 GMT
MOMENTUM gain from LAB
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2018 19:51:52 GMT
Going to put the meme prediction in here early
LDEM gain maj. 56
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Post by Andrew_S on May 8, 2018 19:56:19 GMT
I wouldn't be entirely shocked by a LD gain at this by-election.
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Post by swanarcadian on May 8, 2018 20:03:53 GMT
2017 Result Labour Heidi Alexander 32,072 67.9% +12.3 Conservative Peter Fortune 10,859 23.0% +0.7 Liberal Democrat Emily Frith 2,086 4.4% -1.3 Green Störm Poorun 803 1.7% -4.0 UKIP Keith Forster 798 1.6% -7.4 Independent Willow Winston 355 0.7% Christian Peoples Maureen Martin 228 0.4% -0.2 A candidate for the GPEW deputy leadership in 2016.
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Post by swanarcadian on May 8, 2018 20:14:45 GMT
Is there any point in adding a prediction poll to this thread? If only to guess the size of Labour's majority? It might be worth waiting for the SOPN should there be a major brouhaha over the choice of Labour candidate.
I wonder if ex-MP Colin Moynihan, Baron Moynihan will take any part in the campaign. He's still only 62.
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Post by Andrew_S on May 8, 2018 20:27:19 GMT
Is there any point in adding a prediction poll to this thread? If only to guess the size of Labour's majority? It might be worth waiting for the SOPN should there be a major brouhaha over the choice of Labour candidate. I wonder if ex-MP Colin Moynihan, Baron Moynihan will take any part in the campaign. He's still only 62. I'd like to have a poll if possible.
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,924
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Post by mondialito on May 8, 2018 20:43:54 GMT
Average Vote: Labour 14003 (51.85%) Conservative 4614 (17.08%) Green 4196 (15.54%) Lib Dem 3074 (11.38%) UKIP 343 (1.27%) Duma Polska 339 (1.26%) TUSC 136 (0.5%) Christian People's Alliance 130 (0.48%) BNP 98 (0.36%) Democrats & Veterans 74 (0.27%) Majority 9389 (34.77%)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2018 20:57:38 GMT
One previous candidate in Lewisham East has just been noticed by a wider on-line audience.......Guess who?
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Jack
Reform Party
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Post by Jack on May 8, 2018 20:59:40 GMT
I wonder what nickname Richard Edmonds used to have?
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Post by greenchristian on May 8, 2018 21:07:40 GMT
It's more the idea of the Greens as a vehicle to campaign for the single market that's extraordinary, really. Though I do accept that the leadership have been making noises in that direction recently. How is the membership coping with these noises? Especially given the quite loud past scepticism of the EU's economics. The membership generally agrees that the EU is responsible for a large proportion of our environmental protection laws, protections at work, etc. It's been a very long time (if ever) since we thought that the EU was anything worse than a mixed bag. I'd say the party membership is overwhelmingly on the pro-EU/single market side of the recent/current Brexit debate because the aspects of the EU we like look like the kind of things that the current government most wants to be rid of. Most of the criticism of the current stance I've personally come across within the party has been about the second referendum rhetoric (which was largely developed to play to Brighton & Bristol), rather than our general stance.
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Post by Andrew_S on May 8, 2018 21:41:15 GMT
Confirmed that Val Shawcross is retiring as Deputy Mayor for Transport, and Heidi Alexander has agreed to fill the role. Don't have you have to be elected to the Greater London Assembly to hold a position like this?
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 8, 2018 21:46:05 GMT
I wouldn't be entirely shocked by a LD gain at this by-election. I would. I wouldn't be surprised if we raised out vote share and would be merely delighted and amazed if we finished second. But winning would cause me to check no-one had spiked my drink with LSD.
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