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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 8, 2018 16:50:50 GMT
AWL will claim not to be a political party as such, surely? Just googled and turns out they deregistered as a party in 2015 after Corbyn's victory. They're a former party with no organisation and no sort of network or influence in the same way that the RCP are. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 8, 2018 16:53:03 GMT
I'm not saying it's likely! But it's not like the two parties haven't entered pacts before... and it's not completely impossible to think the Lib Dems would do it just to have the favour returned at a later by-election. It's more the idea of the Greens as a vehicle to campaign for the single market that's extraordinary, really. Though I do accept that the leadership have been making noises in that direction recently. How is the membership coping with these noises? Especially given the quite loud past scepticism of the EU's economics. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 8, 2018 18:14:19 GMT
I know people who are in the AWL. I can tell you categorically that Momentum is not even remotely in the hands of the AWL! Indeed, very few things could be further from the truth. Momentum is tightly controlled by Jon Lansman, whose politics are totally different from those of the AWL. Momentum might not be as a whole, but the Graun implication is firmly that they are in Lewisham East. I shall have to tap up my contact in Lewisham Labour. |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
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Post by timmullen1 on May 8, 2018 19:24:43 GMT
Is it worth mentioning that Alexander herself said when her job change was first “rumoured” that Momentum had only set up a Branch in East last month as part of the local election campaign, and were far more organised in the Deptford constituency.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 8, 2018 19:31:49 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2018 19:46:42 GMT
MOMENTUM gain from LAB
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2018 19:51:52 GMT
Going to put the meme prediction in here early
LDEM gain maj. 56
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Post by Andrew_S on May 8, 2018 19:56:19 GMT
I wouldn't be entirely shocked by a LD gain at this by-election.
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Post by swanarcadian on May 8, 2018 20:03:53 GMT
2017 Result Labour Heidi Alexander 32,072 67.9% +12.3 Conservative Peter Fortune 10,859 23.0% +0.7 Liberal Democrat Emily Frith 2,086 4.4% -1.3 Green Störm Poorun 803 1.7% -4.0 UKIP Keith Forster 798 1.6% -7.4 Independent Willow Winston 355 0.7% Christian Peoples Maureen Martin 228 0.4% -0.2  A candidate for the GPEW deputy leadership in 2016. |
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Post by swanarcadian on May 8, 2018 20:14:45 GMT
Is there any point in adding a prediction poll to this thread? If only to guess the size of Labour's majority? It might be worth waiting for the SOPN should there be a major brouhaha over the choice of Labour candidate.
I wonder if ex-MP Colin Moynihan, Baron Moynihan will take any part in the campaign. He's still only 62.
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Post by Andrew_S on May 8, 2018 20:27:19 GMT
Is there any point in adding a prediction poll to this thread? If only to guess the size of Labour's majority? It might be worth waiting for the SOPN should there be a major brouhaha over the choice of Labour candidate. I wonder if ex-MP Colin Moynihan, Baron Moynihan will take any part in the campaign. He's still only 62. I'd like to have a poll if possible. |
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
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Post by mondialito on May 8, 2018 20:43:54 GMT
Average Vote: Labour 14003 (51.85%) Conservative 4614 (17.08%) Green 4196 (15.54%) Lib Dem 3074 (11.38%) UKIP 343 (1.27%) Duma Polska 339 (1.26%) TUSC 136 (0.5%) Christian People's Alliance 130 (0.48%) BNP 98 (0.36%) Democrats & Veterans 74 (0.27%) Majority 9389 (34.77%) |
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2018 20:57:38 GMT
One previous candidate in Lewisham East has just been noticed by a wider on-line audience.......Guess who?  |
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Jack
Reform Party
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Post by Jack on May 8, 2018 20:59:40 GMT
I wonder what nickname Richard Edmonds used to have? |
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Post by greenchristian on May 8, 2018 21:07:40 GMT
It's more the idea of the Greens as a vehicle to campaign for the single market that's extraordinary, really. Though I do accept that the leadership have been making noises in that direction recently. How is the membership coping with these noises? Especially given the quite loud past scepticism of the EU's economics. The membership generally agrees that the EU is responsible for a large proportion of our environmental protection laws, protections at work, etc. It's been a very long time (if ever) since we thought that the EU was anything worse than a mixed bag. I'd say the party membership is overwhelmingly on the pro-EU/single market side of the recent/current Brexit debate because the aspects of the EU we like look like the kind of things that the current government most wants to be rid of. Most of the criticism of the current stance I've personally come across within the party has been about the second referendum rhetoric (which was largely developed to play to Brighton & Bristol), rather than our general stance. |
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Post by Andrew_S on May 8, 2018 21:41:15 GMT
Confirmed that Val Shawcross is retiring as Deputy Mayor for Transport, and Heidi Alexander has agreed to fill the role. Don't have you have to be elected to the Greater London Assembly to hold a position like this? |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 8, 2018 21:46:05 GMT
I wouldn't be entirely shocked by a LD gain at this by-election. I would. I wouldn't be surprised if we raised out vote share and would be merely delighted and amazed if we finished second. But winning would cause me to check no-one had spiked my drink with LSD. |
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2018 22:10:19 GMT
I wouldn't be entirely shocked by a LD gain at this by-election. I would. I wouldn't be surprised if we raised out vote share and would be merely delighted and amazed if we finished second. But winning would cause me to check no-one had spiked my drink with LSD. Having your drink spiked by the maligned initialism of the early version of the merged party would be quite a thing indeed! Make sure nobody spikes your SaLaD....   |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 8, 2018 22:10:59 GMT
Don't have you have to be elected to the Greater London Assembly to hold a position like this? No. Whilst this is being reported as the Deputy Mayor it is in reality one of many deputy mayors. She will focus on transport, there certainly have been ones in the past for crime and various other portfolios. |
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Post by Peter Wilkinson on May 8, 2018 22:13:43 GMT
I know people who are in the AWL. I can tell you categorically that Momentum is not even remotely in the hands of the AWL! Indeed, very few things could be further from the truth. Momentum is tightly controlled by Jon Lansman, whose politics are totally different from those of the AWL. Momentum might not be as a whole, but the Graun implication is firmly that they are in Lewisham East. I shall have to tap up my contact in Lewisham Labour. On very limited knowledge of Lewisham, that looks quite possible, but likely not to be very relevant. I have no particular liking for Momentum, but it seems to have started in 2015 very much as a franchise operation and, while Jon Lansman seems to have fairly firm control of the central organisation, a number of its local organisations (including apparently Lewisham East) still seem to be operating very autonomously. And also, while the NEC does now have a Corbyn-supporting majority, that majority, particularly in the trade union section, does not seem to be a solid Momentum bloc (after all, the current General Secretary is Jennie Formby). So I don't see it as particularly likely that Lansman's views about the most suitable candidates will be entirely in line with that of local Momentum activists, and I suspect even more strongly that while a majority of NEC members might prefer to skew the selection shortlist to the left, they will not do so if that leaves any strong risk of the chosen candidate being incompetent, totally inexperienced or strongly lacking in local acceptability. |
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