The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on May 9, 2018 10:16:16 GMT
The obvious choice for Lewisham East is Katie Ghose. The local choice for somewhere. She could stand for the WEP, I suppose  |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2018 10:39:52 GMT
Just spotted this. Can't see any follow-up on FB or Twitter, so maybe not as officially official as they make out. Still, a potential first candidate to be announced, at any rate.  |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,721
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Post by CatholicLeft on May 9, 2018 10:59:22 GMT
I am loving the ramping on this thread at the moment.
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Post by andrew111 on May 9, 2018 11:02:03 GMT
But that's because the Vauxhall Labour candidate was Kate Hoey who had spent much of the referendum campaign salivating like a puppy over Farage. That's hardly going to be replicated anywhere else Yes, of course there was a particular Hoey effect... Now there is a by-election effect... I have never even been to Lewisham so my predictions should not be taken too seriously! I don't think second place is outlandish however |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 9, 2018 11:07:35 GMT
The obvious choice for Lewisham East is Katie Ghose. Surely Polly Toynbee's time has come |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 9, 2018 11:08:51 GMT
Surely Polly Toynbee's time has come She had a try in '83. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 9, 2018 11:12:53 GMT
That's obviously why I mentioned her
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 9, 2018 11:16:41 GMT
That's obviously why I mentioned her Fair enough. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 9, 2018 11:34:16 GMT
The obvious choice for Lewisham East is Katie Ghose. Surely Polly Toynbee's time has come She might fancy her chances somewhere she has more connection to. After all, Tuscany might be seeing another election later this year. |
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Post by pragmaticidealist on May 9, 2018 11:46:44 GMT
It would obviously be a huge shock. But...let's not forget that people who had seen the canvassing data on the Manchester Gorton by election claim that in the last 2 weeks before it was cancelled (due to Theresa May's general election) there were huge shifts appearing. This all got squashed by the General, of course, but at least a Vauxhall 2017 ish result is pretty likely IMO. Yes, quite. The Lib Dems went from 6.9% to 20.5% in Vauxhall on a General Election day when most Labour voters appeared to think Corbyn was in favour of Remaining... I'd have been shitting myself if I had been the Labour candidate at the count. A mere 20,000 majority. Nail-biting. Anyway, in 2015 there was a half-respectable (by London standards) UKIP vote here. The Remain vote also wasn't much above the London average. |
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Post by Andrew_S on May 9, 2018 11:50:25 GMT
At the 2006 local elections the LDs won 4 of the 7 wards in the Lewisham East constituency. Grove Park was Conservative, and Labour won two wards in Rushey Green and Catford South. www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/map/2006/27/ |
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Post by Andrew_S on May 9, 2018 12:19:24 GMT
2006 local elections: Lewisham East, using highest vote method.
LD 6,432 (29.5%)
Lab 6,357 (29.2%)
Con 5,072 (23.3%)
Greens 2,637 (12.1%)
Ind 1,020 (4.7%)
UKIP 281 (1.3%)
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
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Post by Chris from Brum on May 9, 2018 12:34:14 GMT
It's a shame that 2006 is such a long time ago ...
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Post by Andrew_S on May 9, 2018 13:14:13 GMT
It would obviously be a huge shock. But...let's not forget that people who had seen the canvassing data on the Manchester Gorton by election claim that in the last 2 weeks before it was cancelled (due to Theresa May's general election) there were huge shifts appearing. This all got squashed by the General, of course, but at least a Vauxhall 2017 ish result is pretty likely IMO. I think we'd take a 20,000 majority if available 20,000 would be a good turnout, (especially if the by-election is scheduled for the middle of August). |
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Post by andrew111 on May 9, 2018 13:59:05 GMT
Yes, quite. The Lib Dems went from 6.9% to 20.5% in Vauxhall on a General Election day when most Labour voters appeared to think Corbyn was in favour of Remaining... I'd have been shitting myself if I had been the Labour candidate at the count. A mere 20,000 majority. Nail-biting. Anyway, in 2015 there was a half-respectable (by London standards) UKIP vote here. The Remain vote also wasn't much above the London average. Some Remain votes in randomly selected constituencies, just for information (courtesy of Chris Hanretty). Richmond Park: 72% Twickenham: 66% Lewisham East: 65% Kingston and Surbiton: 58% Witney: 54% Carshalton and Wallington: 44% I agree (before you point it out) that the Lib Dems did not do well in Labour-facing Remain constituencies, but the General Election day was a special day for Labour, and those results in places like Leeds NW would not be repeated in a by-election next month (in my opinion...). I don't expect the Labour candidate in Lewisham E to be "shitting themselves" at the count either, just that the Lib Dems will come second and that will be the headline... |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 9, 2018 16:53:39 GMT
I'd have been shitting myself if I had been the Labour candidate at the count. A mere 20,000 majority. Nail-biting. Anyway, in 2015 there was a half-respectable (by London standards) UKIP vote here. The Remain vote also wasn't much above the London average. Some Remain votes in randomly selected constituencies, just for information (courtesy of Chris Hanretty). Richmond Park: 72% Twickenham: 66% Lewisham East: 65% Kingston and Surbiton: 58% Witney: 54% Carshalton and Wallington: 44% I agree (before you point it out) that the Lib Dems did not do well in Labour-facing Remain constituencies, but the General Election day was a special day for Labour, and those results in places like Leeds NW would not be repeated in a by-election next month (in my opinion...). I don't expect the Labour candidate in Lewisham E to be "shitting themselves" at the count either, just that the Lib Dems will come second and that will be the headline... It will certainly have to be a quite a majority before "Labour wins Lewisham East" is the headline. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2018 18:24:58 GMT
It's not like the demographics of a seat like this will have changed much in 12 years....
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Tom
Unionist
Posts: 1,998 
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Post by Tom on May 9, 2018 18:45:13 GMT
The obvious choice for Lewisham East is Katie Ghose. The local choice for somewhere. Anyone but her. |
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Post by alderman on May 9, 2018 20:05:44 GMT
Agents have been told June 14 will be polling day
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 9, 2018 20:08:21 GMT
Quick selection timetable:
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