seanf
Non-Aligned
Posts: 629
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Post by seanf on Dec 14, 2018 21:24:41 GMT
KD seem to be doing quite well. The numbers may just add up for M, SD, KD, if L drop out.
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Post by greenhert on Dec 14, 2018 22:08:13 GMT
I suspect the numbers won't even change that much. The last election squeezed all the non-Riksdag parties badly (FI, to my great amusement) and AfS proved to be a busted flush. That said, what if SAP and V put the squeeze on the Greens, and the Liberal/Christian Democrat vote coalesces around the larger parties? Suddenly we could have up to three parties drop out of the Riksdag. The expectation is that MP and L will drop out this time. KD are probably on borrowed time too, but they have a knack for staying just above the threshold, so that's anyone's guess. I can also see that C could also feel the squeeze unfortunately. Though maybe enough M voters will be turned off by their overtures towards SD to negate the changes. I don't see V picking up many votes, I could even see them sliding back slightly. KD had been projected up to the final months of the 2014-18 Swedish parliament to be ejected from the Riksdag, but in the end they received tactical votes from conservative voters once again in a bid to maintain the Moderate alliance's harmony. They will likely receive such tactical votes again.
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WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,103
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Post by WJ on Dec 14, 2018 22:11:08 GMT
The expectation is that MP and L will drop out this time. KD are probably on borrowed time too, but they have a knack for staying just above the threshold, so that's anyone's guess. I can also see that C could also feel the squeeze unfortunately. Though maybe enough M voters will be turned off by their overtures towards SD to negate the changes. I don't see V picking up many votes, I could even see them sliding back slightly. KD had been projected up to the final months of the 2014-18 Swedish parliament to be ejected from the Riksdag, but in the end they received tactical votes from conservative voters once again in a bid to maintain the Moderate alliance's harmony. They will likely receive such tactical votes again. Thing is, we're in uncharted waters right now. I agree that KD are more likely to stay in than, say, L or MP, but I can also see voters abandoning the smaller parties for the bigger ones. I will be surprised if their vote does anything other than drop
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Post by mrpastelito on Jan 12, 2019 9:31:46 GMT
That's still short of a majority though, isn't it?
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 22,426
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Post by mboy on Jan 12, 2019 10:23:46 GMT
Well it's better than another election, which would surely only have benefited the SDs. I'm guessing they are going to dare the Left Party to bring down the govt by voting with right-wingers and nationalists, and I suspect the gamble will pay off.
This is Wierd: What does that even mean? How can it be a thing?
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 12, 2019 10:27:27 GMT
Well it's better than another election, which would surely only have benefited the SDs. I'm guessing they are going to dare the Left Party to bring down the govt by voting with right-wingers and nationalists, and I suspect the gamble will pay off. This is Wierd:What does that even mean? How can it be a thing? Not sure about the voting regulations in the Swedish parliament The Left party would gain more from putting forward a left wing stance supporting the government where they agree and constructive opposition short of voting with the right where they don't Doing the latter wouldn't help them or anyone other than the right.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,351
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Post by Sibboleth on Jan 12, 2019 11:38:37 GMT
Löfven isn't brilliant at elections (though he's not terrible either; just a bit 'meh') but he's very good at all other forms of political manoeuvring.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 12, 2019 13:57:20 GMT
Well,both parties who derive their roots from horrible totalitarians are out then. But this government promises more of the same, and it won't be M who benefit.
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 12, 2019 14:04:53 GMT
Well,both parties who derive their roots from horrible totalitarians are out then. But this government promises more of the same, and it won't be M who benefit. And as Germany has shown reluctance to include such parties in coalitions almost inevitably leads to permanent grand coalitions of the centre irrespective of how people vote. Locally Die Linke have entered government with the SPD but there us still a reluctance to do this nationally. AfD are likely to remain beyond the pale and the same is likely to be the case for the SD's
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,636
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Post by European Lefty on Jan 12, 2019 14:33:34 GMT
Surely this will only benefit SD in the long term? It might almost have been better to let them prove their incompetence as a minor partner in a coalition.....
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 12, 2019 15:09:02 GMT
Well,both parties who derive their roots from horrible totalitarians are out then. But this government promises more of the same, and it won't be M who benefit. And as Germany has shown reluctance to include such parties in coalitions almost inevitably leads to permanent grand coalitions of the centre irrespective of how people vote. Locally Die Linke have entered government with the SPD but there us still a reluctance to do this nationally. AfD are likely to remain beyond the pale and the same is likely to be the case for the SD's I'd watch that. I could well see AfD and Linke 'accomodation' if Wagenknecht were to take over.
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Post by mrpastelito on Jan 12, 2019 15:32:29 GMT
Well,both parties who derive their roots from horrible totalitarians are out then. But this government promises more of the same, and it won't be M who benefit. A horrible totalitarian? Jesus, would you believe it!
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,073
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Post by maxque on Jan 12, 2019 17:37:09 GMT
Well it's better than another election, which would surely only have benefited the SDs. I'm guessing they are going to dare the Left Party to bring down the govt by voting with right-wingers and nationalists, and I suspect the gamble will pay off. This is Wierd:What does that even mean? How can it be a thing? Budgets are not voted in yes/no votes. Rather, different budgets can be presented and it's a simple plurality vote to pick the winning budget among the ones up to vote.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 12, 2019 17:48:37 GMT
Well,both parties who derive their roots from horrible totalitarians are out then. But this government promises more of the same, and it won't be M who benefit. A horrible totalitarian? Jesus, would you believe it! Has the use of intensifiers been banned in English?
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 22,426
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Post by mboy on Jan 12, 2019 19:04:30 GMT
Well it's better than another election, which would surely only have benefited the SDs. I'm guessing they are going to dare the Left Party to bring down the govt by voting with right-wingers and nationalists, and I suspect the gamble will pay off. This is Wierd:What does that even mean? How can it be a thing? Budgets are not voted in yes/no votes. Rather, different budgets can be presented and it's a simple plurality vote to pick the winning budget among the ones up to vote. So if 10 budgets were presented, one could win with 11%? That sounds mental and not at all like the a risk-adverse Swedes!
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Post by mrpastelito on Jan 12, 2019 22:17:42 GMT
A horrible totalitarian? Jesus, would you believe it! Has the use of intensifiers been banned in English? Nah, I was trying to make a joke about the KD who derive their roots from JC being out.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,257
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jan 12, 2019 23:52:08 GMT
Has the use of intensifiers been banned in English? Nah, I was trying to make a joke about the KD who derive their roots from JC being out. This terminus demonstrates indeed a total naivety leading into totalitarianism...
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 13, 2019 5:48:36 GMT
Has the use of intensifiers been banned in English? Nah, I was trying to make a joke about the KD who derive their roots from JC being out. Apologies, I thought you were winding me up! Sorry.
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Post by mrpastelito on Jan 13, 2019 9:28:28 GMT
Nah, I was trying to make a joke about the KD who derive their roots from JC being out. This terminus demonstrates indeed a total naivety leading into totalitarianism... They're Lutherans, Georg...
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WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,103
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Post by WJ on Jan 14, 2019 14:58:17 GMT
I'm back in Sweden now and plugged into the system a bit more. The vote on Löfven has been postponed by the speaker until Friday. V have been throwing their toys out of the pram at the idea of a S-MP-L-C coalition and have vowed to vote down Löfven as PM if he sticks with C and L.
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