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Post by Deleted on Apr 2, 2018 8:33:57 GMT
Sweden will be electing a new Riksdag on Sunday the 9th of September. There is a 4% threshold and a lot will depend on which parties fall below it.
You can basically group Swedish polls in three tiers:
- internet based
- mixed
- phone based
They give you three different pictures of the state of the race. The traditional parties are strongest in the the phone based ones and SD are strongest in the internet based ones, so its to some degree "take your pick", and one of the interesting aspects about this election is that it will deliver a "verdict" of sorts on polling methodology. Swedish pollsters are less prone to herding than in most countries so I expect pollsters to stick to their guns during the campaign.
....
The YouGov March poll (a good representative of the internet polls) has M significantly below SD. They are now losing right wing voters again and making SD more acceptable may be starting to backfire (at least that is the interpretation of many commentators).
YouGov starts to include parties that get 2%+ in three consecutive polls, and AfS are only "close to 2%" in this one. The commentators/researchers/pundits (i.e. talking heads) claim they have no chance as voters only started to accept SD when it moderated, as mentioned in the Swedish politics thread I am less sure, though getting stuck at 2-2.5% and then collapsing when voters return to SD seem fairly likely, getting above the 3% level as crucial (that goes for FI as well).
SAP 24.0%
SD 22.4%
M 18.8%
Left Party 8.3%
Centre 7.6%
The threshold game:
Liberals 4.7%
Greens 4.0%
KD 3.6%
FI 2.5%
Others 4.1%
The three issues voters are most concerned about are:
1. Healthcare
2. Refugees and immigration
3. Crime
So the two main selling points for SD are still high on the voters' agenda (and they try linking the deteriorating state of healthcare to the extra burden of refugees using the system etc.).
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Post by Antiochian on Apr 2, 2018 10:24:11 GMT
Brexit was factors 1 & 2... what is the prize if you hit the trifecta...?
Swexit!?
It's interesting to analyse the themes underlying the swathe of Nordic shows that now are so frequent on Netflix, Channel4 and the BBC, of which we are big fans. Either the shows are out of touch with reality (which would jar with local viewers) or they reflect the zeitgeist. It is apparent from most of them that immigration and crime (mainly Balkan and mid-Eastern) are recurring fears/problems. With the next round of expansion targetting Serbia, Bosnia, Kosovo and Albania, the Nordic public will only have their fears reinforced.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 2, 2018 10:36:53 GMT
Nine pollsters regularly poll Sweden (though some more regularly than others). If you sort them by polling level for SD you get: High: YouGov, Sentio Medium: Novus, Inizio, SCB Low: Ipsos, Sifo, Demoskop, SKOP I haven't analyzed the pattern recently, so this categorization may be out of date if some pollsters have changed their methodology, but I wouldn't expect that to be the case based on a quick glance of the polls. In any case this categorization should provide you with a baseline if you want to calculate averages for each tier, which I think is the most useful approach; an average of all Swedish polls would be pointless in my opinion since the differences between the three tiers are so systematic and it doesn't seem likely that "the truth will be in the middle". I expect someone to be genuinely wrong here. If you are interested in the average of all polls anyway Swedish wiki has the average for Demoskop, Sifo, Ipsos, Novus, Inizio, YouGov and Sentio, which will be quite close to an average of all nine. sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinionsmätningar_inför_riksdagsvalet_i_Sverige_2018#Medelvärde |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2018 12:41:51 GMT
Mikael Jansson, who is the SD defence spokesperson and was party leader 1995-2005, becomes the third MP to defect to AfS. He did not get a place on their list for the upcoming elections, which is his main motive for defecting, but also says that SD have become "iffy" in their opposition to NATO membership and have adapted too much to the Moderates.
Clearly the most significant defection so far and observers say that this could "legitimize" further defections.
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Apr 9, 2018 21:13:40 GMT
This is an election I am hoping to get a vote in. It depends on whether my citizenship application goes through in time. Either way, I'll definitely have a vote in the local elections happening on the same day.
It'll certainly be an interesting election. Lots of people are talking about it here already, which isn't usually the case. It's hard for me to get an accurate feeling for the general mood though considering my location in an outward looking and international workplace and community surrounding Uppsala University.
I do spend much of my summers working in a very different (rural) part of the country, however. So it will be interesting to chat to people there about their views.
One thing I have picked up though, speaking to a few colleagues (completely anecdotal, I know!) is that many people are not very enthused by the left-wing parties. SD aren't left enough at the moment, but
Vänsterpartiet and the Greens feel stale. That might have an effect on turnout on the left side if those feelings are more widely replicated.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2018 21:22:05 GMT
This is an election I am hoping to get a vote in. It depends on whether my citizenship application goes through in time. Either way, I'll definitely have a vote in the local elections happening on the same day. It'll certainly be an interesting election. Lots of people are talking about it here already, which isn't usually the case. It's hard for me to get an accurate feeling for the general mood though considering my location in an outward looking and international workplace and community surrounding Uppsala University. I do spend much of my summers working in a very different (rural) part of the country, however. So it will be interesting to chat to people there about their views. One thing I have picked up though, speaking to a few colleagues (completely anecdotal, I know!) is that many people are not very enthused by the left-wing parties. SD aren't left enough at the moment, but Vänsterpartiet and the Greens feel stale. That might have an effect on turnout on the left side if those feelings are more widely replicated. Never use SD as abbreviation for the Swedish Social Democrats.  |
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Apr 10, 2018 11:48:16 GMT
This is an election I am hoping to get a vote in. It depends on whether my citizenship application goes through in time. Either way, I'll definitely have a vote in the local elections happening on the same day. It'll certainly be an interesting election. Lots of people are talking about it here already, which isn't usually the case. It's hard for me to get an accurate feeling for the general mood though considering my location in an outward looking and international workplace and community surrounding Uppsala University. I do spend much of my summers working in a very different (rural) part of the country, however. So it will be interesting to chat to people there about their views. One thing I have picked up though, speaking to a few colleagues (completely anecdotal, I know!) is that many people are not very enthused by the left-wing parties. SD aren't left enough at the moment, but Vänsterpartiet and the Greens feel stale. That might have an effect on turnout on the left side if those feelings are more widely replicated. Never use SD as abbreviation for the Swedish Social Democrats. Yes thank you, A stray 'D' there!  |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2018 12:23:49 GMT
Never use SD as abbreviation for the Swedish Social Democrats. Yes thank you, A stray 'D' there! Using SAP is safer. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 15, 2018 21:30:53 GMT
MSB (the authority for protection of society and preparedness) now warns that "foreign powers" (= the Russians) are collecting a database over easily influenced Swedes to be able to influence the election.
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mazuz
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Post by mazuz on Apr 18, 2018 0:11:10 GMT
Would probably be willing to vote for AfS if they are structurally close to or manage to pass the 4% threshold, unless antisemitic skeletons start falling out of the closet (anti-Israel stuff and/or serious Nazi larping would be the limit). AfS are completely right when it comes to immigration, the most important issue, and they could both normalize the more moderate SDs (thereby making it more easy to for them to cooperate with Alliance parties and to exert influence over government policy) and push the discourse on immigration + the Overton window to the right, which is very necessary in Sweden; this can backfire if done wrongly, but Kasselstrand seems smart. If, however, AfS remain well under the 4% hurdle or start being stupid about Jews, I'd gladly vote for SD, who are a great and safe choice.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Apr 18, 2018 0:17:06 GMT
Fascinating...so it's good to be anti immigration which in Swedish context means Muslims but if they say anything less than positive about Jews....
Oh well, that's where the right appears to be these dsys
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2018 19:33:37 GMT
Result of the first party leader debate according to Demoskop.
Ulf Kristersson (M) won with 53% saying he did well, 54% thought Jimmie Åkesson (SD) did well, but since he is more polarizing Kristersson "won". Jimmie Åkesson won the 40-65 year olds. The left did poorly and Stefan Löfven had his worst debate performance in three years, only Isabella Lövin from the Greens did worse.
Ulf Kristersson (Moderates): 3.46
Jimmie Åkesson (SD): 3.39
Annie Lööf (Centre): 2.97
Jan Björklund (Liberals): 2.88
Ebba Busch Thor (KD): 2.73
Jonas Sjöstedt (Left): 2.59
Stefan Löfven (SAP): 2.38
Isabella Lövin (Greens): 2.00
The four themes in the debate were welfare, law & order, migration and climate & environment.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 7, 2018 19:49:24 GMT
Result of the first party leader debate according to Demoskop. Ulf Kristersson (M) won with 53% saying he did well, 54% thought Jimmie Åkesson (SD) did well, but since he is more polarizing Kristersson "won". Jimmie Åkesson won the 40-65 year olds. The left did poorly and Stefan Löfven had his worst debate performance in three years, only Isabella Lövin from the Greens did worse. Ulf Kristersson (Moderates): 3.46 Jimmie Åkesson (SD): 3.39 Annie Lööf (Centre): 2.97 Jan Björklund (Liberals): 2.88 Ebba Busch Thor (KD): 2.73 Jonas Sjöstedt (Left): 2.59 Stefan Löfven (SAP): 2.38 Isabella Lövin (Greens): 2.00 The four themes in the debate were welfare, law & order, migration and climate & environment. I notice a lot of noise about the KDs failing to get in, but the Greens look like they are circling the drain as well. |
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2018 20:18:41 GMT
Result of the first party leader debate according to Demoskop. Ulf Kristersson (M) won with 53% saying he did well, 54% thought Jimmie Åkesson (SD) did well, but since he is more polarizing Kristersson "won". Jimmie Åkesson won the 40-65 year olds. The left did poorly and Stefan Löfven had his worst debate performance in three years, only Isabella Lövin from the Greens did worse. Ulf Kristersson (Moderates): 3.46 Jimmie Åkesson (SD): 3.39 Annie Lööf (Centre): 2.97 Jan Björklund (Liberals): 2.88 Ebba Busch Thor (KD): 2.73 Jonas Sjöstedt (Left): 2.59 Stefan Löfven (SAP): 2.38 Isabella Lövin (Greens): 2.00 The four themes in the debate were welfare, law & order, migration and climate & environment. I notice a lot of noise about the KDs failing to get in, but the Greens look like they are circling the drain as well. The argument is that the Greens are more likely to be saved by "Comrade 4%" SocDems than KD is to be saved by M voters, who will likely prefer to save the Liberals if they are prepared to lend out their vote. If the Liberals are solidly above the threshold in the last polls KD will be in a somewhat better position, but they will rely on voters that aren't all that sympathetic to their core issues voting for them anyway. Many SoCon M voters have defected to SD, so the segment that used to be willing to save KD if need be is mostly gone. Right wingers going to SD are likely to be focused on making them the biggest party, and therefore unlikely to save KD. So KD rely on more mainstream M voters with fairly liberal positions on social issues voting for them anyway to secure a centre-right government. So even if they only need an extra percentage point it might be hard to get it. |
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Post by Deleted on May 11, 2018 5:01:21 GMT
The Sentio poll conducted 4-7/5 has the Liberals below the threshold and AfD too low to be registered independently, which is at 2% IIRC. April numbers in brackets.
Social Democrats 25.3 (-0.6)
SD 23.1 (+1.7)
Moderates 20.4 (+0.3)
Left Party 9.2 (+0.9)
Centre 6.4 (-1.2)
Greens 4.4 (nc)
Liberals 3.7 (-0.7)
KD 2.1 (-0.3)
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Post by Deleted on May 12, 2018 11:33:01 GMT
Glad to see I'm not the only person to vote KD in the poll, although I suspect this is going to be a very bad election for them.
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Post by Deleted on May 12, 2018 11:48:37 GMT
Glad to see I'm not the only person to vote KD in the poll, although I suspect this is going to be a very bad election for them. They need to "pull a rabbit out of the hat" and its hard to see what it should be - there are no obvious "family values" issues that aren't taken by others. And its looks set to become an immigration and law & order election and there is no room between M and SD for them to present an independent profile. Its very surprising only one person will vote M given how many Tories there are on the forum. I suppose nearly all of the SD voters are Tories, but there should still be some. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on May 12, 2018 12:10:16 GMT
I am a good fit with AfS and see it as being a vitally needed corrective in a country for so long run on near insane policies in a number of areas.
But it might be prudent to vote SD this time round in the hope of gaining crossover with the useless SocDems. If hat happens there might be a serious break in the SocDem vote and a fundamental shift to the right.
Later a mass defection to the AfS can move the whole scenario further to the right in the strategy of sorting this benighted country out and steam-cleaning the gormless Swedish ruling class mentality out and purging a large proportion of the immigrants by mass deportations.
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on May 12, 2018 12:12:25 GMT
Glad to see I'm not the only person to vote KD in the poll, although I suspect this is going to be a very bad election for them. Hope so. There is a need to have SD hoover up most of this vote if it is to overhaul the SocDems. This is not a moment for factionalism as the position is too desperate. |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on May 12, 2018 12:44:06 GMT
Glad to see I'm not the only person to vote KD in the poll, although I suspect this is going to be a very bad election for them. They need to "pull a rabbit out of the hat" and its hard to see what it should be - there are no obvious "family values" issues that aren't taken by others. And its looks set to become an immigration and law & order election and there is no room between M and SD for them to present an independent profile. Its very surprising only one person will vote M given how many Tories there are on the forum. I suppose nearly all of the SD voters are Tories, but there should still be some. Possibly M, prossibly L. |
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