Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 12, 2018 13:26:14 GMT
Its very surprising only one person will vote M given how many Tories there are on the forum. I suppose nearly all of the SD voters are Tories, but there should still be some. The curious (or not) thing about this forum is that there are very few boring mainstream Conservative voters here of the kind that exist in millions amongst the relatively apolitical. It's like how only six people said they'd vote CDU/CSU on the German poll, whilst the FDP of all parties pulled ahead with 32.1%. |
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mazuz
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Post by mazuz on May 12, 2018 13:44:37 GMT
Its very surprising only one person will vote M given how many Tories there are on the forum. I suppose nearly all of the SD voters are Tories, but there should still be some. The curious (or not) thing about this forum is that there are very few boring mainstream Conservative voters here of the kind that exist in millions amongst the relatively apolitical. It's like how only six people said they'd vote CDU/CSU on the German poll, whilst the FDP of all parties pulled ahead with 32.1%. The Tories are clearly to the right of many other "mainstream" European right-wing parties. It makes sense for those on the right of the Conservative Party (Brexiteers etc.) to support relatively "soft" right-wing populist parties like SD over parties like M and L that, in a UK context, would perhaps even be closer to the Lib Dems than to the Tories in terms of policy positions (though not in terms of electorate). |
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Post by Merseymike on May 12, 2018 14:00:22 GMT
Its very surprising only one person will vote M given how many Tories there are on the forum. I suppose nearly all of the SD voters are Tories, but there should still be some. The curious (or not) thing about this forum is that there are very few boring mainstream Conservative voters here of the kind that exist in millions amongst the relatively apolitical. It's like how only six people said they'd vote CDU/CSU on the German poll, whilst the FDP of all parties pulled ahead with 32.1%. Perhaps it's down to most centre-right parties within the EU are very pro Europe. Those which aren't are very dodgy outfits like Fidesz which have an Erdogan-style relationship to pluralism anyway. |
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Post by mrpastelito on May 12, 2018 21:38:52 GMT
I am a good fit with AfS and see it as being a vitally needed corrective in a country for so long run on near insane policies in a number of areas. But it might be prudent to vote SD this time round in the hope of gaining crossover with the useless SocDems. If hat happens there might be a serious break in the SocDem vote and a fundamental shift to the right. Later a mass defection to the AfS can move the whole scenario further to the right in the strategy of sorting this benighted country out and steam-cleaning the gormless Swedish ruling class mentality out and purging a large proportion of the immigrants by mass deportations. Too late for that I think. I find it astonishing how Sweden opted for collective suicide. Suppose that's what happens when the men let themselves be castrated by the women. |
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Post by Andrew_S on May 20, 2018 17:45:20 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2018 17:52:06 GMT
I can only repeat my initial objection against that approach: Nine pollsters regularly poll Sweden (though some more regularly than others). If you sort them by polling level for SD you get: High: YouGov, Sentio Medium: Novus, Inizio, SCB Low: Ipsos, Sifo, Demoskop, SKOP (...) In any case this categorization should provide you with a baseline if you want to calculate averages for each tier, which I think is the most useful approach; an average of all Swedish polls would be pointless in my opinion since the differences between the three tiers are so systematic and it doesn't seem likely that "the truth will be in the middle". I expect someone to be genuinely wrong here. |
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Post by Andrew_S on May 20, 2018 18:44:41 GMT
Surely taking an average of the polls is the least-worst approach? I don't think you can weight the polls based on which ones have a reputation for giving a particular party a higher score. That would be too subjective.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 21, 2018 11:53:05 GMT
Surely taking an average of the polls is the least-worst approach? I don't think you can weight the polls based on which ones have a reputation for giving a particular party a higher score. That would be too subjective. I would not weigh them. I would make separate averages for each of the three tiers of pollsters since the differences are so systematic. Its a bit more work, but would produce much more interesting and relevant numbers. An average of all polls will just broadly align with the middle tier (the mixed phone & online polls), and I am not convinced they are the better ones. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 7, 2018 19:30:29 GMT
"Europe Elects
@europeelects
Sweden, Sentio poll:
SD-EFDD: 26% (+3)
S-S&D: 22% (-3)
M-EPP: 17% (-3)
V-LEFT: 10% (+1)
C-ALDE: 7% (-1)
L-ALDE: 7% (+3)
MP-G/EFA: 5% (+1)
KD-EPP: 3% (+1)
FI-EPP: 1% (-1)
Field work: 1/06/18 – 5/06/18
Sample size: unrevealed"
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2018 21:11:43 GMT
"Europe Elects @europeelects Sweden, Sentio poll: SD-EFDD: 26% (+3) S-S&D: 22% (-3) M-EPP: 17% (-3) V-LEFT: 10% (+1) C-ALDE: 7% (-1) L-ALDE: 7% (+3) MP-G/EFA: 5% (+1) KD-EPP: 3% (+1) FI-EPP: 1% (-1) Field work: 1/06/18 – 5/06/18 Sample size: unrevealed" Of course notable that SD overtakes SAP (and that AfS isn't polling high enough to be independently mentioned). But the most interesting is that it has the Liberals gaining three points and M losing a similar share. That could be a coincidence, but after having hovered around the threshold for a long time this is a really good poll for the Liberals and a tie with Centre would be a fantastic result for them. |
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Jun 7, 2018 21:44:47 GMT
I can't work out the party acronyms there :/
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2018 21:56:15 GMT
I can't work out the party acronyms there :/ SD - Sweden Democrats S or SAP - Social Democrats M - Moderates V - Left Party C - Centre L - Liberals MP - Greens KD - Christian Democras FI - Feminist Initiative |
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Post by greenhert on Jun 7, 2018 22:03:43 GMT
The Swedish Greens are still hovering around 4% in other polls. This particular election is now only 3 months away and the elimination of the Christian Democrats from the Riksdag is almost certain; I am worried that Miljopartiet will fall just below the 4% threshold as their Austrian counterparts did last year (although this was also caused by a split in their ranks).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2018 11:52:14 GMT
Norwegian business media Dagens Næringsliv has a short interview with Arve Østgaard, who is senior adviser and co-founder of Norwegian pollster Sentio Research (founded by researchers at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology in 1997) about why their polls have SD so high, the shy SD vote and the reaction to their polls.
Østgaard says that the difference is simply due to their polls being web based so people answer honestly. That SD aren't considered "housebroken" in Sweden, so people are afraid to say they vote for the party over the phone. He also says that no one in Sweden will talk about their polls, neither the politicians nor the press.
"It's completely paranoid, and we are being accused of being bought. The debating climate in Sweden is completely extreme, and it's SD against the rest. "
"It is completely cuckoo and we are self-evidently neither bought nor bribed."
He says that they poll 22 countries and it is only in Sweden the legitimacy of their polls is being questioned.
According to Østgaard Sentio had the most accurate assessment of the SD vote at the two latest elections in 2010 and 2014 (which is correct afaik).
In the same article they quote migration researcher Joakim Ruist from the University of Gothenburg for saying he wouldn't be surprised if SD get upwards of 35%. Presumably based on the shy SD vote, though quoted out of context, but Ruist's field of research includes attitudes to immigration (he is an economist, so he also focuses on immigrants' integration and their impact on the receiving country's economy). I hope they do a proper interview with him later on.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Jun 11, 2018 12:13:09 GMT
If they get 35% it will be almost impossible to prevent them forming the next government - only a 4-party (or more) grand-grand-grand coalition would be able to stop them. As it happens I cant see them getting 35%.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2018 12:20:15 GMT
As it happens I can't see them getting 35%. Okay, but I would trust someone like Ruist considerably more on this matter.  |
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Post by Antiochian on Jun 11, 2018 12:30:29 GMT
Norwegian business media Dagens Næringsliv has a short interview with Arve Østgaard, who is senior adviser and co-founder of Norwegian pollster Sentio Research (founded by researchers at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology in 1997) about why their polls have SD so high, the shy SD vote and the reaction to their polls. Østgaard says that the difference is simply due to their polls being web based so people answer honestly. That SD aren't considered "housebroken" in Sweden, so people are afraid to say they vote for the party over the phone. He also says that no one in Sweden will talk about their polls, neither the politicians nor the press. "It's completely paranoid, and we are being accused of being bought. The debating climate in Sweden is completely extreme, and it's SD against the rest. "
"It is completely cuckoo and we are self-evidently neither bought nor bribed." He says that they poll 22 countries and it is only in Sweden the legitimacy of their polls is being questioned. According to Østgaard Sentio had the most accurate assessment of the SD vote at the two latest elections in 2010 and 2014 (which is correct afaik). In the same article they quote migration researcher Joakim Ruist from the University of Gothenburg for saying he wouldn't be surprised if SD get upwards of 35%. Presumably based on the shy SD vote, though quoted out of context, but Ruist's field of research includes attitudes to immigration (he is an economist, so he also focuses on immigrants' integration and their impact on the receiving country's economy). I hope they do a proper interview with him later on. Another shock to the EU body corporate coming down the pike in Sweden? How many of the 26 (plus Malta) turn ornery before its considered a majority and the EU changes tack? 20? 24? Or only over Jean-Claude's dead body! |
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Jun 11, 2018 12:45:39 GMT
How many of the 26 (plus Malta) turn ornery before its considered a majority and the EU changes tack? 20? 24? Or only over Jean-Claude's dead body! Well, next year's Euro Elections will obviously be an important barometer. If 25% of the Parliament returned is of the shouty populist brigade, then they will likely be the 2nd largest grouping and will make waves. However, the chances of them coming together in a single group that would give them real punching power is slim, they will most likely for 3 or more separate groups, and so will have limited impact, again. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 11, 2018 13:41:00 GMT
Update, 10 most recent polls: Social Democrats: 24.6% Sweden Democrats: 21.1% Moderate Party: 20.8% |
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Post by greenchristian on Jun 12, 2018 19:38:08 GMT
How many of the 26 (plus Malta) turn ornery before its considered a majority and the EU changes tack? 20? 24? Or only over Jean-Claude's dead body! Well, next year's Euro Elections will obviously be an important barometer. If 25% of the Parliament returned is of the shouty populist brigade, then they will likely be the 2nd largest grouping and will make waves. However, the chances of them coming together in a single group that would give them real punching power is slim, they will most likely for 3 or more separate groups, and so will have limited impact, again. Especially if a lot of them take the UKIP approach of not actually turning up to/engaging with the committees (thus limiting their actual power to voting for/against pieces of final legislation) |
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