Swedish parliamentary election, 2018

[Andrew_S]

Comment deleted.

[mboy]

Probably just gangland violence that seems typical of there these days. But even so, "Police said there was no cause for public alarm" - that's frankly ridiculous. 4 people being shot in a hail of 20 bullets in the city centre at 6pm is obviously a cause for alarm, unless you're in Aleppo.

[Deleted]

Jun 18, 2018 19:56:42 GMT Andrew_S said:

"Four people have been injured in a shooting in the Swedish city of Malmo.

The motive for the shooting is unknown, police said, and there is no indication it was terror-related."

news.sky.com/story/four-people-wounded-in-malmo-shooting-11409127

How is this related to the election?

Most likely regular Copenhagen/Scanian gang war stuff.

[Deleted]

Jun 18, 2018 20:36:53 GMT Andrew_S said:

Jun 18, 2018 20:02:09 GMT @vintris said:

How is this related to the election?

Most likely regular Copenhagen/Scanian gang war stuff.

I think this sort of thing could be relevant as far as the election is concerned. The fact that you might not want it to be is neither here nor there.

Hmmm

It's not really about what I want it to be, but while the existence of an ongoing gang war no doubt benefits SD Sweden has - unfortunately - gotten used to these sort of things and one more shooting incident is unlikely to have any noticeable influence on the election. 

...

But since we are apparently doing this Scanian gang war shooting in the election thread there are six victims, one dead and five wounded. The deceased is an 18-year old and three of the wounded are "known by the police", and they are "especially focused on one of them" (= a gang leader). At least three of the five wounded are in their 20s. As usual they are reluctant to disclose ethnicity, but some sort of "Middle Eastern" would be a safe bet. I am still not convinced this is big enough to actually influence anything, but if either of the deceased or the two wounded who aren't "known to the police" were innocent bystanders that would of course make it a lot more usable in the campaign. The victims were standing in front of an internet café (located 100 meter from a police station..) and it was probably a drive-by shooting.

EDIT: One of the wounded, a 29-year old, has since died. Sydsvenskan report a 20-year old has also died, but the police haven't confirmed that. 

[Deleted]

Not sure how electorally relevant it will be, but tabloid Expressen has outed assistant to Jimmie Åkesson and SD parliamentary candidate Mikael Bystedt (37) as the man behind an online profile that has written hundreds of anonymous comments on anti-immigration websites/alternative media Avpixlat and Fria tider + Breitbart where he has "spread hatred against Muslims", called Arabs "the scum of the Earth", commented the burning of a mosque in London by saying "bloody well done! Now we hope this spreads to Sweden like a wildfire" and encouraged people to avoid taxes and fiddle with their tax returns. 

The comment where written 2012-16 using his private mail address, which he also used during contacts with the authorities.

This is on top of Björn Söder repeating his "Jews aren't Swedes" argument on facebook and SD arguing that they will hold at a referendum on Swedish EU-membership as soon as possible at a time where the EU is getting more popular and less than 20% want Sweden to leave (though there is a large group of undecided).

There is a lot of built up anger over the migrant and crime situation so all these things may not matter much in the end, but SD sure makes it harder for themselves by constantly reminding voters that at heart they aren't really a moderate party after all, and Euroscepticism is a losing argument in Sweden at the moment.

[Deleted]

Other comments by Bystedt:

- Sweden should "expel all Muslims" because "Islam is pure evil!"
- "Stop all immigration of Muslims".
- "Destroy all traces of Islam in our Swedish society, mosques etc".
- For those Muslims who oppose this, Sweden should use military violence against them and expulsion.
- "How many times do we have to say that Muslims should not live in our countries, OUT WITH THEM!"
- Arabs are "lying bastards", "lazy parasites who can't lift a finger and just lie on the couch and expect to be served one or the other."
- Barack Obama is a closeted Muslim who carries out Jihad.
- "Now the US has to get rid of Obama, the Muslim who conducts stealth Jihad!"
- "Even if all people have equal value, it would probably be much safer in the United States if there was apartheid. Do you want to make your homeland safe ... easy, out with Africans and Muslims."
- "Even if you have seen how they drive cars in Russia, the country otherwise seems to be okay to mov to. Less democracy for sure, but less than ... we have no democracy left here to speak about. Is like a fresh breath of air to read stuff like this, unlike big parts of the rest of the world that's just PC. Go Russia! "
- "Some people in society have forfeited their right to live".
- "Get rid of your tax payments".
- "Invitation: cheat as much as you can to get rid of tax payments (there is obviously a lot of money) and save it on some Swiss account, when Sweden is already breaking down (because it is) then we fly to Somalia (all the Somalis are still here)".

Confronted with the comments Mikael Bystedt said he didn't "recognize them", although according to Expressen he systematically wrote about 500 comments on the sites. When they showed him specific personal information about himself, he confirmed to be the author.

He of course says he doesn't hold those opinions (anymore?) and distance himself from them etc. (especially the remark about some people having forfeited their lives and racial segregation stuff). But it's a lot of waffle few will care about that.

Though it seems like it involves some trolling and anger venting some of this stuff will be beyond the pale for a lot of SD voters and potential SD voters, so it might harm them even if he gets the boot.

[mboy]

The thing about loons is that they’re often loons.

[Deleted]

The police have now revealed more info on the Malmö shooting.

All the victims were gang members, which lowers the electoral importance considerably. There are now three death as a 27-year old man has also died of his wounds. The age of the deceased teenager has been corrected to 19. 

[Deleted]

I’ve selected the Liberals.

[mazuz]

The hitpiece on Bystedt was probably long prepared and published now to make SD look bad right before the election. But Söder's comments were less smart (even though there is a legitimate discussion to be had and I don't think it was antisemitic, but this inevitably gets lost in translation and he should have known better), and Swexit definitely is a losing issue: the Netherlands is more euroskeptical than Sweden and the PVV's 2012 campaign on Nexit was a big fail. You only convince the base with it, but they will vote for you anyway (certainly in the circumstances Sweden is currently in) and it is a losing issue to those who agree with you on immigration and might vote for you if you just shut up about the EU/the economy/etc.

RRWPs generally perform best when they moderate their tone in election campaigns. Many people are open to voting for them, but only if they behave like a civil party and focus on immigration, immigration, immigration: every RRWP's central theme and the main theme that unites former right-wingers and former left-wingers. After the election, these parties can continue saying more controversial things and moving the Overton window. I wish more parties would understand this. Lega and the FPÖ do.

[Deleted]

On Friday the SAP launched four senior (in both meanings of the word...) politicians as their faces of the campaign (so-called "election locomotive" in Swedish political parlance).

PM Stefan Löfven (60), Minister of Finance Magdalena Andersson (51), Minister of Foreign Affairs Margot Wallström (63), Minister of Defence Peter Hultqvist (59). 

They want to "make the election a referendum on welfare" and focus on healthcare, schools, pensions and a push to end segregation, stop the "black painting" of Sweden and tell the people that things are going really well with a strong economy that means the country can now invest in welfare. 

Their main attack line against SD is that "votes have consequences", "grown ups do not use protest votes" and "if you vote for SD you risk getting Jimmie Åkesson as PM". They especially warn working class voters that SD will implement cuts in the municipalities, weaken the labour law and allow profiteering in the welfare sector to continue. 

The background is that polls show far more people consider voting SD than those who actually like the party, but especially the Åkesson as PM line is a bit desperate as everyone knows that isn't realistic. Though SD are vulnerable on private involvement in welfare (that was one of the things the AfS defectors criticized them for), which isn't popular, and maybe also budget cuts as they often vote with the right in the municipalities. 

All in all a bit too moralistic and "classical Swedish" (if they are really going with "grown ups do not protest vote" they are truly tone deaf). Though they of course have to make SD their main enemy as far more economically left leaning voters are considering them then the rest of the right. Not having a single person below 50 as part of their "face of the campaign" is a major blunder. 39-year old Jimmie Åkesson will appear youthful in comparison and the "tired old Social Democrats" line of attack will write itself. 

Though the "safe pair of hands", "experience matters" etc. line is necessary for them and will have some effect in a country with a cautious electorate it should have been framed differently. 

[Deleted]

So there line is “keep letting us destroy Sweden through mass immigration”.

Shows how desperate the left / establishment are getting when they roll out the negative tatics / use smear tatics rather than come up with solutions to Sweden’s current problems.

[Deleted]

Jun 20, 2018 9:32:20 GMT @barctom said:

So there line is “keep letting us destroy Sweden through mass immigration”.

Shows how desperate the left / establishment are getting when they roll out the negative tatics / use smear tatics rather than come up with solutions to Sweden’s current problems.

Swedish immigration policy has already been tightened somewhat by the current government. SAP have also moved to the right on crime prevention and law & order, but probably not enough to be credible. Their solution to the current problems with ethnic minorities is the "forceful push to end segregation", to get the minorities into the labour market and make them part of the wider society. I haven't seen their proposals and they may be inadequate but they obviously disagree that Sweden is being destroyed (it would be odd if they bought into that line) and focus on the country having a strong economy (incl. many tech based start-ups etc.) and the resources to combat poverty and exclusion which they see as the main causes of the "ghetto problems". 

[Deleted]

On Monday AfD leader Gustav Kasselstrand gave a speech to the nation presenting his vision of what Sweden would look like in 2028 if AfD got into power, I am not sure they are relevant enough at this point to warrant a translation of it's main points, but I found this part slightly funny:

– In the year 2028 an architectural renaissance will be flourishing. Classical architecture will be raised, and modern architecture torn down! Not the other way round as today.

[Deleted]

Jun 20, 2018 12:35:32 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Each year about 1% of Sweden's population is made up of newly arrived migrants from Africa and Asia who arrived that very year, predominantly from Arabic countries in the Middle East and North Africa.

Higher actually, 1% is around 100,000 which is the size of the net immigration. But the general trend is declining immigration and policies have been tightened. Sweden will take in less migrants regardless of who forms the next government, but the drop will be a bit bigger with an M led government. Though the demographic transformation into a highly diverse society (whether you see that as negative or positive) is of course unstoppable. Only a regular ethnic cleansing could reverse the trend and there is no appetite for that among the vast majority. Sweden may be declining in certain ways, but they are doing alright in others such as entrepreneurship. It will become a more fragmented and almost certainly more unequal society, but not a "failed state". There are too many dystopian fantasies and strange projections associated with Sweden. 

[Deleted]

Jun 20, 2018 13:33:09 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Jun 20, 2018 13:26:57 GMT @vintris said:

Higher actually, 1% is around 100,000 which is the size of the net immigration. But the general trend is declining immigration and policies have been tightened. Sweden will take in less migrants regardless of who forms the next government, but the drop will be a bit bigger with an M led government. Though the demographic transformation into a highly diverse society (whether you see that as negative or positive) is of course unstoppable. Only a regular ethnic cleansing could reverse the trend and there is no appetite for that among the vast majority. Sweden may be declining in certain ways, but they are doing alright in others such as entrepreneurship. It will become a more fragmented and almost certainly more unequal society, but not a "failed state". There are too many dystopian fantasies and strange projections associated with Sweden. 

The general trend from that chart is not declining immigration into Sweden.

I was talking about African and Asian migrants, not migrants from Europe, Oceania or the Americas which presumably constitute the additional 50,000 odd migrants into Sweden each year. 

You seem to have missed my point completely that more immigration into Sweden from migrants who don't bother to learn the language or try to integrate will erode Swedish way of life, living standards and create social tensions and divisions. 

No, I did not miss your point - which is the same point everyone on the right repeatedly makes so it's hard to miss - and I partly agree with it (I mentioned fragmentation and inequality among the negative consequences), but it's rather pointless to keep repeating it over and over or painting a dystopian picture. Sweden will evolve into something different that most of us who are "culturally conservative" Europeans (for lack of a better term) wouldn't like and for someone like me the rising inequality would be a problem as well. I also suspect that you mentioning a lower standard of living (for the average person, I assume) and me saying rising inequality will be a problem are two ways of viewing the same issue. A bit provocatively you could say that Sweden will resemble Brazil a bit more, apart from the weather . Diverse, crime ridden unequal, but dynamic and creative (they are unlikely to go all the way, but will move in that direction). They are already getting their first gated communities etc. (considered un-Sandinavian not long ago, and still un-Danish in Denmark). It's just that this doesn't make them into some sort of failed state or means that Cooperate Sweden won't function and new start-ups won't flourish (they are damn good at that). It's a matter of nuance and proportions. The doom and gloom narrative is tiresome if repeated too many times and it seems people like to repeat it over and over on this forum. I just don't see the point. The focus of an election thread should be what the parties plan to do to influence the direction of the country and their ability to gain support etc. 

...

Immigration has fallen in the last two years, that may not constitute a "trend" yet, but the point is that there has already been a tightening of immigration policy and regardless of who will be in charge that will not be reversed. 

[mazuz]

Jun 20, 2018 11:58:31 GMT @vintris said:

On Monday AfD leader Gustav Kasselstrand gave a speech to the nation presenting his vision of what Sweden would look like in 2028 if AfD got into power, I am not sure they are relevant enough at this point to warrant a translation of it's main points, but I found this part slightly funny:

– In the year 2028 an architectural renaissance will be flourishing. Classical architecture will be raised, and modern architecture torn down! Not the other way round as today.

Love it. Not sure what's funny about it either. Scandinavian architecture is beautiful and Stockholm still has beautiful architecture, yet also so many ugly modernist buildings. One's environment affects one's mood. These modernist buildings could be anywhere: Rotterdam, Dubai, New York, what's the difference? It makes people feel less rooted in their own societies and in their own culture, which might sometimes even have been the purpose behind it. There are important political aspects to this.

[Sibboleth]

Modernist architecture - especially regarding housing developments - very much associated with Sweden during the Folkhemmet era o/c. Given that the failure to transition well out of that* is the root of much of what ails Sweden at present (and has led to the rise of populist rhetoric and - eventually but this took longer than people remember - parties) it doesn't automatically tick the nostalgia box as it might do in most places.

_{*Some interesting parallels with New Zealand: what happens when the political elite and the electorate are not used to social problems in a conventional sense and struggle to manage and make sense of them when they occur following the end of 'middle way' state socialism.}

[Deleted]

Sweden turning into a European Brazil = more corruption, Crime, inequality, division and economic problems.

For the sake of Sweden I hope SD get enough seats/votes to get into government and reverse the current trends.

[Sibboleth]

Are you high?