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Post by tonygreaves on Feb 19, 2018 17:32:34 GMT
I'm afraid that my habit in STV elections is often to allocate number 1 then allocate the last number, then fill in in between. There was a time when Liberal Party or Liberal Democrat STV elections required you to fill in the names or codes of candidates on a blank sheet. The number of rows on the ballot paper was the total number of candidates minus one. I think it was an Electoral Reform Society fad at the time.
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Post by andrewteale on Feb 19, 2018 18:43:05 GMT
Pursuing the last point, at stage 5, 247 Con votes transferred to SNP, but 1033 were non-transferable. Does anyone know what "non-transferable" means in his context? Does it mean "last or blank" or just "blank"? If the latter, then "last" is being treated differently to "blank". In which case, shouldn't electors be told? Some of those non-transferable votes will have transferred several times before reaching the Tories, and many will be Tory votes that transferred to eliminated candidates but did not reach the SNP. We also don't know how many transfers occurred before Tory votes reached the SNP. As pointed out by David, there is not actually any point numbering all the candidates but most voters will not realise that. Hence the small number of Tory transfers to SNP is probably an interesting reflection of the Unionist/Separatist divide that appears to be particularly important to Tories. This is where the preference profile comes in handy. Of the 1088 Conservative first preference votes, 523 had no further preference; 385 had further preferences but not for the SNP; and 180 had preferences for the SNP (62 2nd, 59 3rd, 22 4th and 37 5th). At the time the Conservatives were eliminated they had 1280 votes, of which 1088 were first preferences 161 transferred Lab -> C 19 transferred Grn -> C 8 transferred UKIP -> C 3 transferred Grn -> Lab -> C 1 transferred UKIP -> Lab -> C At that point the SNP had 1619 votes, of which 1295 were first preferences 244 transferred Lab -> SNP 53 transferred Grn -> SNP 18 transferred Grn -> Lab -> SNP 5 transferred UKIP -> SNP 3 transferred UKIP -> Lab -> SNP 1 transferred UKIP -> Grn -> SNP The fate of the smaller parties' votes was: Lab: 244 to SNP, 161 to C, 408 to neither Grn: 71 to SNP, 22 to C, 31 to neither UKIP: 9 to SNP, 9 to C, 17 to neither The proportion of voters using only one preference was: SNP: 444/1295 (34.3%) C: 523/1088 (48.1%) Lab: 337/813 (41.5%) Grn: 18/124 (14.5%) UKIP: 9/35 (25.7%) |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 19, 2018 20:34:32 GMT
Interesting - so actually the Conservative voters were even more transfer-averse than the Labour voters.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 19, 2018 20:35:21 GMT
That doesn't surprise me
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Feb 19, 2018 23:21:28 GMT
I think it probably is normal not to give full preferences where it isn't compulsory (Australia is a different matter), but there is definitely a strongly anti-separatist pattern of tactical preference flows in parts of Scotland at the moment too. What's the evidence for it being a regional as opposed to a partisan pattern? The Conservative, and to a lesser extent Lib Dem, vote tends to transfer in an anti-separatist manner, but it looks to me like the Labour vote normally transfers at a low rate anyway, and more to the SNP than the Tories. Okay, maybe 'strong' was overstating the case slightly, but there are definitely different dynamics at play at Scotland. The evidence of the most recent by-election is that GB-wide factors (progressive/anti-Tory pact) and a 'just vote 1' attitude from Labour voters are in the ascendant, but that won't necessarily be what happens everywhere from now until 2022. |
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