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Post by andrew111 on Feb 16, 2018 15:33:27 GMT
I was hoping someone would do this. So its inline with the polls basically neck and neck I did not notice the polls putting the Lib Dems almost neck and neck with the other two! These results really mean nothing at all for a General Election. But they show that if the Lib Dems are seen as a credible alternative in a particular place, people will vote for them now to a greater extent than in the coalition years. That was also true in the last General Election, but the places where the Lib Dems were seen in that way were few and far between. A significant part (a few %) of the Labour vote (including both my children, and at least two Lib Dem members I know) was a tactical vote against Brexit, just as quite a bit of the Tory vote was a tactical vote FOR Brexit. Once Brexit is over I expect normal politics for most of the last 50 years with significant ABL and ABT votes going to other Parties to resume |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 16, 2018 15:36:46 GMT
Lol no but everyone knows the lib dems do better in locals. Just interesting findings is all
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Post by La Fontaine on Feb 16, 2018 16:21:24 GMT
SNP elected at stage five. Can't find any publication of the full result. It seems the SNP got not that many transfers, as they did not reach the quota until the ludicrous and unnecessary "stage five". |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
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Post by Chris from Brum on Feb 16, 2018 16:28:29 GMT
SNP elected at stage five. Can't find any publication of the full result. It seems the SNP got not that many transfers, as they did not reach the quota until the ludicrous and unnecessary "stage five". Define "Ludicrous and unnecessary". In the context of STV/AV it is absolutely necessary to go through as many stages as are needed to establish a winner. As it happens, Falkirk council have published the full result including counting stages here. The Green's votes transferred more to SNP than anywhere else, and Labour votes also transferred more to SNP than to Tory. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 16, 2018 16:37:46 GMT
SNP 1,295/1,300/1,354/1,619/1,866
Con 1,088/1,096/1,115/1,280/-----
Lab 813 /821 /858 /-----/-----
Grn 114 /129 /-----/-----/-----
Ukip 35 /-----/-----/-----/-----
NTV 0 /9 /28 /456 /1,489
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Post by La Fontaine on Feb 16, 2018 17:00:20 GMT
Can't find any publication of the full result. It seems the SNP got not that many transfers, as they did not reach the quota until the ludicrous and unnecessary "stage five". Define "Ludicrous and unnecessary". In the context of STV/AV it is absolutely necessary to go through as many stages as are needed to establish a winner. As it happens, Falkirk council have published the full result including counting stages here. The Green's votes transferred more to SNP than anywhere else, and Labour votes also transferred more to SNP than to Tory. I couldn't find the full result on their website, but it seems I didn't look hard enough. A winner was established after stage four. There were 456 non-transfers at that stage. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 16, 2018 17:14:56 GMT
Can't find any publication of the full result. It seems the SNP got not that many transfers, as they did not reach the quota until the ludicrous and unnecessary "stage five". Define "Ludicrous and unnecessary". In the context of STV/AV it is absolutely necessary to go through as many stages as are needed to establish a winner. As it happens, Falkirk council have published the full result including counting stages here. The Green's votes transferred more to SNP than anywhere else, and Labour votes also transferred more to SNP than to Tory. And the UKIP vote transferred more to green than anywhere else - a none of the above vote ? |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Feb 16, 2018 17:18:11 GMT
A significant part (a few %) of the Labour vote (including both my children, and at least two Lib Dem members I know) was a tactical vote against Brexit ... How's that working out with Comrade Corbyn seemingly as keen on it as the Maybot? |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Feb 16, 2018 17:21:10 GMT
And the UKIP vote transferred more to green than anywhere else - a none of the above vote ? There wasn't a lot of UKIP vote to transfer to anyone, really. In fact it went 8 Tory 8 Labour 5 Green 5 SNP and the rest non-transferable. |
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 16, 2018 17:40:54 GMT
the roller coasters have tremendous momentum so i'm told..... I've heard their candy floss is deepest red - none of that pink and blue rubbish... The People's Floss is deepest red, it makes your teeth fall out yer head. |
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thetop
Labour
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Post by thetop on Feb 16, 2018 17:56:39 GMT
Yeah, I don't think it's quite the surprise you're making it out to be that the Lib Dems are capable of gaining council seats. Sure, we're in the know. It's the national messages pushed out to the general public that haven't caught up. What do you mean by the national message catching up, though? If your irritation is that despite these results you're still being written off on a national level, bare in mind one of your gains (Chudleigh) is a repeat of what you achieved in Dec 2016 by-election there, and 5 months later you were still going backwards on a national level. As others have said, these frustratingly tell us little about the national picture. |
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Post by lbarnes on Feb 16, 2018 19:21:01 GMT
I was hoping someone would do this. So its inline with the polls basically neck and neck It looks like it's neck and neck and neck. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 16, 2018 19:52:15 GMT
And the UKIP vote transferred more to green than anywhere else - a none of the above vote ? There wasn't a lot of UKIP vote to transfer to anyone, really. In fact it went 8 Tory 8 Labour 5 Green 5 SNP and the rest non-transferable. Ah then there's a typo in the figures europeanlefty put as he has 15 going Green but that would add up to 45 rather than 35. My bad. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 16, 2018 20:07:27 GMT
SNP 1,295/1,300/1,354/1,619/1,866 Con 1,088/1,096/1,115/1,280/----- Lab 813 /821 /858 /-----/----- Grn 114 /129 /-----/-----/----- Ukip 35 /-----/-----/-----/----- NTV 0 /9 /28 /456 /1,489 15 of the 35 UKIP votes transferred to the Greens?  |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 16, 2018 20:30:41 GMT
For fun, Baxters projected general election figures for all wards in England contested yesterday was; CON 48.6 LAB 39.5 LIB 8.1 UKIP 1.7 GRN 1.0 Yesterday; CON 31.8 LAB 31.9 LIB 26.6 UKIP 1.9 GRN 1.7 For wards where the main three parties contested it was a little different (2017 general election in brackets); CON 37.6 (53.9) LAB 28.1 (34.1) LIB 25.9 (8.2) So Tories down 16.3, Labour down 6 and the Lib Dems up 17.7. link please  |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Feb 16, 2018 20:33:56 GMT
I was hoping someone would do this. So its inline with the polls basically neck and neck I did not notice the polls putting the Lib Dems almost neck and neck with the other two! These results really mean nothing at all for a General Election. But they show that if the Lib Dems are seen as a credible alternative in a particular place, people will vote for them now to a greater extent than in the coalition years. That was also true in the last General Election, but the places where the Lib Dems were seen in that way were few and far between. A significant part (a few %) of the Labour vote (including both my children, and at least two Lib Dem members I know) was a tactical vote against Brexit, just as quite a bit of the Tory vote was a tactical vote FOR Brexit. Once Brexit is over I expect normal politics for most of the last 50 years with significant ABL and ABT votes going to other Parties to resume Worth noting that comparing the Baxters "General Election" figures for these wards with the national result, the sample is slightly more favourable to the LDs and quite a lot more favourable to the Tories, therefore not good Labour territory. Do we think that it is easier for LDs to be the "credible alternative" in Tory facing contets than in Labour facing ones? |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 16, 2018 20:41:58 GMT
Strong Tory result in that North East Derbyshire by-election. Should give Lee Rowley hope of holding his seat next time.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 16, 2018 23:22:39 GMT
Well, the union is important to people and the nationalist/unionist dichotomy has been set up as the big thing. Maybe this will recede now it looks less likely that there will be a second referendum and that it would be won even if it was. I'm a bit late to this particular party, but one thing that has struck me recently has been the number of 'political' friends and acquaintances of mine joining Scottish Labour who voted or even campaigned for Yes in the referendum. Perhaps unsurprisingly, they are very much the same kind of people who would have joined Labour in England since the 2015 election. I think the constitutional divide is at least starting to break down on 'the left', though it was perhaps always less ingrained there anyway. Perhaps the next Holyrood election could see the election of Labour MSPs who admit they voted Yes, and also Green MSPs who admit they voted No? |
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Post by johnloony on Feb 17, 2018 0:46:20 GMT
Can't find any publication of the full result. It seems the SNP got not that many transfers, as they did not reach the quota until the ludicrous and unnecessary "stage five". Define "Ludicrous and unnecessary". In the context of STV/AV it is absolutely necessary to go through as many stages as are needed to establish a winner. As it happens, Falkirk council have published the full result including counting stages here. Quite obviously, it it ludicrous and unnecessary to continue transferring votes AFTER the point at which the winner has been elected (which, in this case, is stage 4). The normal proper rules of AV (and, indeed STV) require the de-facto quota* to be re-calculated at each stage to allow for the number of non-transferable votes. Some Scottish local authorities quite properly have the common sense to stop the count at the stage at which all the vacancies have been filled, and do not bother doing the "final" stage (actually, an extra stage beyond the final stage) in which the votes are transferred from the runner-up candidate to the already-elected winning candidate. There is a flaw in the legislation which says that the count should continue up to, and including, that extra and unnecessary stage. * the quota is re-calculated for the purpose of determining whether a candidate has been elected or not, but not for the purpose of calculating the surplus to be transferred from an elected candidate. P.S. The link to the results sheet shows that it has lots of unnecessary zeroes after the decimal points, indicating that the count was done by a stupid computer instead of a sensible human, which explains why it followed the rules of going as far as the unnecessary stage at the end. It was of course necessary for a human to be stupid enough to make the decision to employ the computer to do the count in the first place. |
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Post by johnloony on Feb 17, 2018 0:50:52 GMT
SNP 1,295/1,300/1,354/1,619/1,866 Con 1,088/1,096/1,115/1,280/----- Lab 813 /821 /858 /-----/----- Grn 114 /129 /-----/-----/----- Ukip 35 /-----/-----/-----/----- NTV 0 /9 /28 /456 /1,489 15 of the 35 UKIP votes transferred to the Greens? The link to the result shows that the Green candidate got 124 in the first round, not 114, so the number of votes transferred is 5 not 15. |
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