|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Feb 17, 2018 7:23:08 GMT
15 of the 35 UKIP votes transferred to the Greens?  The link to the result shows that the Green candidate got 124 in the first round, not 114, so the number of votes transferred is 5 not 15. Thanks for clearing that up. |
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on Feb 17, 2018 7:39:42 GMT
johnloony's last two contributions here again show how he is now firmly in the Sensible camp and no longer a Loony at all.
Which is a pity.
|
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Feb 17, 2018 8:40:46 GMT
I am going to disagree with JohnLooney about the AV counting. Firstly it is eminently sensible to let a computer do the counting. It is the only reason we got the result on the night.
Secondly it is a human who decides how many significant figures the computer uses in the output of the results. The computer is exactly as sensible or stupid as the people who control it.
Thirdly, once you have a computer doing the counting it costs nothing at all to complete the process to the last stage, and gives useful information to psephologists and entrants to competitions on local election results!
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 17, 2018 8:51:46 GMT
Wasnt computer counting one of the reasons Labour lost the seat glasgow govan in a close contest in 2007. The high number of spoiled ballots identified being a big part of the result
|
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Feb 17, 2018 8:56:41 GMT
I did not notice the polls putting the Lib Dems almost neck and neck with the other two! These results really mean nothing at all for a General Election. But they show that if the Lib Dems are seen as a credible alternative in a particular place, people will vote for them now to a greater extent than in the coalition years. That was also true in the last General Election, but the places where the Lib Dems were seen in that way were few and far between. A significant part (a few %) of the Labour vote (including both my children, and at least two Lib Dem members I know) was a tactical vote against Brexit, just as quite a bit of the Tory vote was a tactical vote FOR Brexit. Once Brexit is over I expect normal politics for most of the last 50 years with significant ABL and ABT votes going to other Parties to resume Worth noting that comparing the Baxters "General Election" figures for these wards with the national result, the sample is slightly more favourable to the LDs and quite a lot more favourable to the Tories, therefore not good Labour territory. Do we think that it is easier for LDs to be the "credible alternative" in Tory facing contets than in Labour facing ones? I think political activism is a middle class occupation these days. Hence it is much easier for both the Lib Dems and Labour to get canvassing done and leaflets delivered in middle class areas that instinctively vote Tory than in working class areas. The Lib Dems can win in places like Sunderland and Rotherham, but only by focusing resources to a high degree. That works partly because in these safe Labour seats there is very little activity year on year from Labour. There was a time when the Liberals and Lib Dems were winning lots of seats from Labour in big cities, but in my experience most people who are just about managing do not have time to deliver leaflets for anyone.. I do think that at the moment the Tory vote in terms of transferring to Lib Dem in a local election is softer than the Labour vote at the moment. And that transfer has nothing to do with Brexit vote in most cases.. |
|
|
|
Post by timrollpickering on Feb 17, 2018 8:56:51 GMT
Perhaps the next Holyrood election could see the election of Labour MSPs who admit they voted Yes, and also Green MSPs who admit they voted No? Exactly why has the SGP so firmly wedded itself to separation? Other Green parties often decline to take an official line on such issues and leave it to personal preference. Has this hindered the growth of the SGP? |
|
|
|
Post by mrpastelito on Feb 17, 2018 10:24:18 GMT
I must say I'm intrigued by the two isolated -by occurrences near Bampton on the River Exe. Can anyone shed light on them? |
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Feb 17, 2018 11:25:15 GMT
I must say I'm intrigued by the two isolated -by occurrences near Bampton on the River Exe. Can anyone shed light on them? bloody viking holiday home owners.... |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 17, 2018 11:40:03 GMT
Perhaps the next Holyrood election could see the election of Labour MSPs who admit they voted Yes, and also Green MSPs who admit they voted No? Exactly why has the SGP so firmly wedded itself to separation? Other Green parties often decline to take an official line on such issues and leave it to personal preference.
Has this hindered the growth of the SGP? To be honest, things might have looked a bit different if some of the selection contests for the 2016 election had gone a different way. Our only councillor in the North East voted No, and he'd have had a reasonable chance of topping the list if he'd actually campaigned for it instead of specifically asking for second preferences, and I think it's entirely possible that he'd have pulled in just enough personal votes to get elected. It's also generally assumed that the Green leader on Glasgow City Council voted No (he shifted from a definite No to an 'undecided, leaning No' during the campaign, but I don't think he ever publicly revealed how he voted in the end), so I don't think it's really viewed as a political litmus by much of the membership in that way. I'm not convinced it's hindered the growth of the party overall, really. The immediate aftermath of the referendum led to about a six-fold increase in membership, bringing with it a lot more money, and seeing the creation of active branches in many places where they hadn't previously existed. The question really is what the ceiling for a green party would be in a five-party Scotland, and I'm not sure that it's actually that much higher than our current vote share. |
|
|
|
Post by afleitch on Feb 17, 2018 12:17:37 GMT
The Scottish Greens have been the strongest Green party in the UK for nearly 20 years. In comparison to European legislatures, representation is strong. I struggle to see what the perceived problem is.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,980
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Feb 17, 2018 12:26:02 GMT
For fun, Baxters projected general election figures for all wards in England contested yesterday was; CON 48.6 LAB 39.5 LIB 8.1 UKIP 1.7 GRN 1.0 Yesterday; CON 31.8 LAB 31.9 LIB 26.6 UKIP 1.9 GRN 1.7 For wards where the main three parties contested it was a little different (2017 general election in brackets); CON 37.6 (53.9) LAB 28.1 (34.1) LIB 25.9 (8.2) So Tories down 16.3, Labour down 6 and the Lib Dems up 17.7. That last stat is particularly meaningless given that the LibDems will have tended to stand only in their more promising areas anyway. |
|
|
|
Post by No Offence Alan on Feb 17, 2018 13:13:05 GMT
The Scottish Greens have been the strongest Green party in the UK for nearly 20 years. In comparison to European legislatures, representation is strong. I struggle to see what the perceived problem is. Well, you would say that, since the SGP are a wholly-owned subsidiary of the SNP. |
|
|
|
Post by middleenglander on Feb 17, 2018 14:08:32 GMT
Doncaster, Armthorpe - Labour hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 "top" | since 2017 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Labour | 1,431 | 75.4% | +34.8% | +34.9% | +41.7% | +43.2% | Independent | 466 | 24.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP |
|
| -28.7% | -26.7% | -28.1% | -28.8% | Conservative |
|
| -21.6% | -23.2% | -15.5% | -15.9% | Green |
|
| -9.0% | -9.7% | -7.5% | -7.7% | Liberal Democrat |
|
|
|
| -7.9% | -8.1% | Independent |
|
|
|
| -7.2% | -7.3% | Total votes | 1,897
|
| 52%
| 56%
| 24%
| 24%
|
Swing not meaningful Council now 43 Labour, 7 Conservative, 3 Working for Mexborough, 2 Independent East Northamptonshire, Higham Ferrers Lancaster - Conservative hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | 2015 result | 2011 result | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | Conservative | 611 | 55.6% | 2 Unopposed | 2 unopposed | -15.2% | -15.5% | Liberal Democrat | 244 | 22.2% |
|
| from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 189 | 17.2% |
|
| -12.0% | -11.7% | Green | 33 | 3.0% |
|
| from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 22 | 2.0% |
|
| from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 1,099 |
|
|
| 96% | 98% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 36 Conservative, 2 Labour, 2 Independent Epsom & Ewell, Ruxley - Resident Association hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Resident Association | 398 | 37.2% | -7.4% | -4.5% | -5.7% | -2.3% | Conservative | 340 | 31.8% | -0.6% | -2.2% | -6.6% | -9.2% | Labour | 264 | 24.7% | +10.5% | +9.9% | +13.0% | +11.8% | Liberal Democrat | 67 | 6.3% | -2.5% | -3.3% | -0.7% | -0.4% | Total votes | 1,069
|
| 35% | 38% | 58% | 64% |
Swing Resident Association to Conservative 3½% / 1¼% since 2015 but Conservative to Resident Association ½% / 3½% since 2011 Council now 31 Resident Association, 4 Conservative, 3 Labour Falkirk, Bonnybridge & Lerbert - SNP hold based on first preference votes | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 | since 2012 | since 2007 | | SNP | 1,295 | 38.6% | +4.9% | +1.0% | +7.4% | Conservative | 1,088 | 32.4% | +8.1% | +24.0% | +23.0% | Labour | 813 | 24.2% | +8.5% | -3.3% | -1.2% | Green | 124 | 3.7% | -0.1% | from nowhere | -1.2% | UKIP | 35 | 1.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent elected |
|
| -20.1% | -22.7% | -25.5% | Other Independent |
|
| -2.3% | -3.7% | -2.3% | Scottish Socialist |
|
|
|
| -1.2% | Total votes | 3,355
|
| 60% | 75% | 55% |
Swing SNP to Conservative ~ 1½% since 2017 and, if meaningful, ~ 11½% since 2012 and ~ 8% since 2007 Council now 12 SNP, 9 Labour, 7 Conservative, 2 Independent Halton, Halton Castle - Labour hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | Labour | 522 | 70.3% | -5.8% | +0.2% | +3.9% | -15.0% | No Description ^ | 133 | 17.9% | +9.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 88 | 11.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP |
|
| -15.5% | -17.2% | -28.7% |
| Liberal Democrat |
|
|
| -7.8% |
| -14.8% | TUSC |
|
|
| -5.0% | -5.0% |
| Total votes | 743 |
| 55% | 26% | 52% | 56% |
^ Contested seat as Independent in 2016 and TUSC 2015 & 2014 Swing Labour to Independent ~ 7½% since 2016 Council now 52 Labour, 2 Conservative, 2 Liberal Democrat Lancashire, Morecambe North - Conservative hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 | Conservative | 1,332 | 49.0% | -14.2% | Liberal Democrat | 809 | 29.7% | +21.6% | Labour | 580 | 21.3% | -0.7% | Green |
|
| -6.6% | Total votes | 2,721 |
| 72% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~ 18% since 2017 Council now 44 Conservative, 30 Labour, 4 Liberal Democrat, 2 No Party, 2 Independent, 1 Green, 1 Independent Northamptonshire, Higham Ferrers - Conservative hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 | since 2013 | | Conservative | 1,414 | 56.6% | -3.5% | +12.5% | Labour | 557 | 22.3% | +3.5% | +7.9% | Liberal Democrat | 336 | 13.5% | +2.3% | +9.1% | UKIP | 109 | 4.4% | -5.5% | -21.6% | Green | 81 | 3.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent |
|
|
| -11.2% | Total votes | 2,497 |
| 85% | 93% |
Swing Conservative to Labour 3½% since 2017 but, if meaningful, Labour to Conservative 2¼% since 2013 Council now 43 Conservative, 12 Labour, 2 Liberal Democrat
|
|
|
|
Post by middleenglander on Feb 17, 2018 14:09:11 GMT
North East Derbyshire, Grassmoor - Labour hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Labour | 459 | 48.9% | -10.3% | -8.7% | -31.2% | -31.5% | Conservative | 368 | 39.2% | +22.1% | +22.1% | +19.4% | +19.7% | Liberal Democrat | 111 | 11.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP |
|
| -23.6% | -25.3% |
|
| Total votes | 938 |
| 50% | 54% | 81% | 83% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~ 16¼% / 15½% since 2015 and ~ 25½% since 2011 Council now 33 Labour, 18 Conservative, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent
North Norfolk, Worstead - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
| Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 | since 2011 | since 2007 | | Liberal Democrat | 509 | 72.7% | +39.4% | +26.0% | +12.6% | Conservative | 118 | 16.9% | -25.0% | -12.0% | -23.1% | Labour | 73 | 10.4% | -1.8% | -5.6% | from nowhere | Green |
|
| -12.6% | -8.4% |
| Total votes | 700 |
| 49% | 70% | 76% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 32% since 2015, 19% since 2011 and 18% since 2007 Council now 22 Conservative, 18 Liberal Democrat, 8 Independent Teignbridge, Chudleigh - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
| Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2016 B | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Liberal Democrat ^ | 575 | 41.0% | -10.5% | +29.9% | +29.7% | +22.8% | +21.1% | Conservative | 564 | 40.3% | +4.7% | +11.7% | +12.6% | +7.9% | +8.1% | Labour | 262 | 18.7% | +12.6% | +5.7% | +5.3% | +1.4% | -0.3% | UKIP |
|
| -6.7% |
|
|
|
| Independent |
|
|
| -21.5% | -22.1% | -32.2% | -28.9% | Independents ^ |
|
|
| -12.9% | -12.4% |
|
| Green |
|
|
| -12.8% | -13.1% |
|
| Total votes | 1,401 |
| 106% | 31% | 31% | 51% | 56% |
^ new councillor unsuccessfully contested 2015 election as Independent and was elected as Conservative in 2011
Swing Liberal Democrat to Conservative ~ 7½% since 2016 by-election but Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~ 9% since 2015 and ~ 7% since 2011 Council now 24 Conservative, 17 Liberal Democrat, 5 Independent
Teignbridge, Dawlish Central & North East - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
| Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 1,287 | 70.6% | +47.5% | +46.7% | +50.2% | +50.2% | Conservative | 535 | 29.4% | -0.7% | -0.1% | -11.6% | -10.7% | Independent |
|
| -16.8% | -15.2% | -38.6% | -39.5% | Green |
|
| -15.3% | -16.0% |
|
| Labour |
|
| -14.7% | -15.4% |
|
| Total votes | 1,822 |
| 32% | 34% | 62% | 66% |
Swing if meaningful Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~ 24% since 2015 and ~ 31% since 2011 Council now 24 Conservative, 17 Liberal Democrat, 5 Independent
Tendring, St Pauls - Conservative gain from UKIP sitting as Independent
| Party | 2018 votes | 2018 votes | since 2016 B | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 378 | 39.5% | +12.0% | +6.7% | +8.5% | -2.3% | -1.4% | Independent Andrews | 160 | 16.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent Hones | 134 | 14.0% | -7.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 114 | 11.9% | -1.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 79 | 8.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 71 | 7.4% | -30.1% | -29.6% | -29.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green | 20 | 2.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Tendring First |
|
|
| -30.1% | -32.5% | -58.2% | -59.1%
| Total votes | 956 |
| 85% | 37% | 41% | 59% | 60% |
Swing not meaningful although 21% UKIP to Conservative since 2016 by-election
Council now 33 Conservative, 8 UKIP, 5 Independent, 4 Labour, 3 Resident, 3 Non Aligned, 2 No Group Independent, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 Tendring First
West Oxfordshire, Carterton South - Conservative hold
| Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2011 | since 2010 | | Conservative | 388 | 62.9% | +1.4% | +8.4% | -6.4% | -15.1% | Liberal Democrat | 146 | 23.7% | +17.7% | from nowhere | +9.4% | +1.6% | Labour | 83 | 13.5% | +2.0% | +4.2% | +3.4% | from nowhere | UKIP |
|
| -15.4% | -29.0% |
|
| Green |
|
| -5.6% | -7.3% | -6.4% |
| Total votes | 617 |
| 28% | 63% | 48% | 29% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~ 8% since 2015, 2011 and 2010 Council now 40 Conservative, 5 Liberal Democrat, 4 Labour York, Holgate - Labour hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | Labour | 1,521 | 50.0% | +22.6% | +22.0% | Liberal Democrat | 982 | 32.3% | +19.5% | +19.8% | Conservative | 334 | 11.0% | -8.0% | -6.3% | Green | 203 | 6.7% | -9.3% | -7.8% | UKIP |
|
| -11.6% | -12.9% | Independent |
|
| -9.1% | -10.2% | TUSC
|
|
| -4.1%
| -4.6%
| Total votes | 3,040 |
| 38% | 43% |
Swing, if meaningful, Liberal Democrat to Labour 1½% / 1% since 2015 Council now 15 Labour, 14 Conservative, 12 Liberal Democrat, 4 Green, 2 Independent
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 17, 2018 14:44:02 GMT
The Scottish Greens have been the strongest Green party in the UK for nearly 20 years. In comparison to European legislatures, representation is strong. I struggle to see what the perceived problem is. Well, you would say that, since the SGP are a wholly-owned subsidiary of the SNP. Genuine question, since the SGP at least theoretically operates according OMOV: do you think that our leadership is in some sense failing the membership and/or circumventing internal party democracy, or do you think I'm lying when I say that I voted Labour for Westminster last year, gave my second preference to the Labour candidate in last year's council election, and voted Labour in the constituency in 2016, and that we're actually all in on some kind of mass scam? |
|
|
|
Post by lbarnes on Feb 17, 2018 17:18:33 GMT
For fun, Baxters projected general election figures for all wards in England contested yesterday was; CON 48.6 LAB 39.5 LIB 8.1 UKIP 1.7 GRN 1.0 Yesterday; CON 31.8 LAB 31.9 LIB 26.6 UKIP 1.9 GRN 1.7 For wards where the main three parties contested it was a little different (2017 general election in brackets); CON 37.6 (53.9) LAB 28.1 (34.1) LIB 25.9 (8.2) So Tories down 16.3, Labour down 6 and the Lib Dems up 17.7. That last stat is particularly meaningless given that the LibDems will have tended to stand only in their more promising areas anyway. I assume that's accounted for. Maybe the real point is that as a whole those 14 seats on Thursday were under-representative of the Lib Dem vote. Would love to see the source material and methodology. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 17, 2018 19:01:34 GMT
That last stat is particularly meaningless given that the LibDems will have tended to stand only in their more promising areas anyway. I assume that's accounted for. Maybe the real point is that as a whole those 14 seats on Thursday were under-representative of the Lib Dem vote. Would love to see the source material and methodology. They were actually slightly over representitive. |
|
Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,140 
|
Post by Foggy on Feb 18, 2018 0:24:16 GMT
Wasnt computer counting one of the reasons Labour lost the seat glasgow govan in a close contest in 2007. The high number of spoiled ballots identified being a big part of the result AFAIK electronic counting has never been used for the constituency vote (and probably not for the list vote either). There were lots of spoilt ballots in 2007 because that was the only time it was attempted to hold all-out council elections and a Scottish Parliament election on the same day, plus STV had only just been introduced for the former. Besides, Sturgeon won by a majority of 3.5% on that occasion – so, close but not that close – and had been banging on the door in that seat at the previous two Holyrood elections. |
|
|
|
Post by La Fontaine on Feb 18, 2018 9:14:10 GMT
I am going to disagree with JohnLooney about the AV counting. Firstly it is eminently sensible to let a computer do the counting. It is the only reason we got the result on the night. Secondly it is a human who decides how many significant figures the computer uses in the output of the results. The computer is exactly as sensible or stupid as the people who control it. Thirdly, once you have a computer doing the counting it costs nothing at all to complete the process to the last stage, and gives useful information to psephologists and entrants to competitions on local election results! Pursuing the last point, at stage 5, 247 Con votes transferred to SNP, but 1033 were non-transferable. Does anyone know what "non-transferable" means in his context? Does it mean "last or blank" or just "blank"? If the latter, then "last" is being treated differently to "blank". In which case, shouldn't electors be told? |
|
|
|
Post by andrewteale on Feb 18, 2018 12:34:37 GMT
Wasnt computer counting one of the reasons Labour lost the seat glasgow govan in a close contest in 2007. The high number of spoiled ballots identified being a big part of the result AFAIK electronic counting has never been used for the constituency vote (and probably not for the list vote either). There were lots of spoilt ballots in 2007 because that was the only time it was attempted to hold all-out council elections and a Scottish Parliament election on the same day, plus STV had only just been introduced for the former. Besides, Sturgeon won by a majority of 3.5% on that occasion – so, close but not that close – and had been banging on the door in that seat at the previous two Holyrood elections. Electronic counting was in fact used for all three ballots in Scotland 2007. It enabled very accurate notional results to be drawn up for the 2011 Holyrood election based on the polling station breakdown. Also, the 1999 and 2003 Holyrood elections were combined with all-out local elections. The spoilt ballot issues were to do with the introduction of STV and voter confusion between the three ballot papers. It was as a result of that experience that the Scottish Parliament moved local elections to a different date from Holyrood elections. |
|
