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Post by Deleted on Feb 16, 2018 11:15:40 GMT
Id probably have done better in predictions
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Post by Deleted on Feb 16, 2018 11:16:27 GMT
Tbf back home there are villages up to 5k
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Post by timrollpickering on Feb 16, 2018 11:27:56 GMT
Falkirk is surprising because there was a unionist majority but Labour voters probably didn't want a Tory elected. Is the independent prominently identified on the issue? |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 16, 2018 11:31:12 GMT
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 16, 2018 11:36:23 GMT
I will be rather surprised if Labour fail to hold Doncaster against an independent from 5 miles away who had previously been a councillor in his home patch and then had lost it. Admittedly he has the advantage of being able to hoover up any ABL votes out there but even so for Labour to lose this one would be to change a mediocre night for them into a disaster area. Whilst the LibDems had a genuinely excellent set of results, I think you are slightly overstating things with regard to us. There were no remotely realistic prospects of gains for Labour in the seats that were up, and we held all our defences (notably seeing off the Tory "blitzkrieg" in NE Derbyshire) For me, our most disappointing result was the Lancs CC one - totally didn't see your lot leapfrogging us like that. |
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Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 16, 2018 11:38:26 GMT
Lab 75.4% Ind 24.6% Congratulations to yellowperil for getting that prediction almost exactly right, closely followed by ruggerman. |
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thetop
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Post by thetop on Feb 16, 2018 11:42:44 GMT
I will be rather surprised if Labour fail to hold Doncaster against an independent from 5 miles away who had previously been a councillor in his home patch and then had lost it. Admittedly he has the advantage of being able to hoover up any ABL votes out there but even so for Labour to lose this one would be to change a mediocre night for them into a disaster area. Whilst the LibDems had a genuinely excellent set of results, I think you are slightly overstating things with regard to us. There were no remotely realistic prospects of gains for Labour in the seats that were up, and we held all our defences (notably seeing off the Tory "blitzkrieg" in NE Derbyshire) For me, our most disappointing result was the Lancs CC one - totally didn't see your lot leapfrogging us like that. Indeed. Now Doncaster has been confirmed, NE Derbyshire and Lancs CC were the only two disappointing results from over a dozen by-elections - I don't think that justifies a conclusion of a poor night for Labour (as you say, these were hardly fertile territory). |
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Post by justin124 on Feb 16, 2018 11:49:16 GMT
They performed pretty well in the previous parliament in local by-elections yet still lost further ground to the Tories and Labour in the general Yes. And to be honest the places they did well are places where we never have. North Norfolk or Teignbridge will never be Labour seats, whereas the LibDems have held Teignbridge and hold North Norfolk North Norfolk was a Labour-held seat from 1945 - 1970. Admittedly there has been massive demographic change there over the intervening years. |
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 16, 2018 11:57:37 GMT
Yes. And to be honest the places they did well are places where we never have. North Norfolk or Teignbridge will never be Labour seats, whereas the LibDems have held Teignbridge and hold North Norfolk North Norfolk was a Labour-held seat from 1945 - 1970. Admittedly there has been massive demographic change there over the intervening years. beat me to it justin - it was also Labour 1922-31, with the Liberals only standing once (1950) between 1929 and 1974. the majority was always small though and the two Labour MPs in that time Edwin Gooch and Bert Hazell were both from the Agricultural Workers Union. Hazell had only just missed out on being elected for Barkton Ash in the 1945 election. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Feb 16, 2018 11:59:33 GMT
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Feb 16, 2018 12:02:16 GMT
Whilst the LibDems had a genuinely excellent set of results, I think you are slightly overstating things with regard to us. There were no remotely realistic prospects of gains for Labour in the seats that were up, and we held all our defences (notably seeing off the Tory "blitzkrieg" in NE Derbyshire) For me, our most disappointing result was the Lancs CC one - totally didn't see your lot leapfrogging us like that. Indeed. Now Doncaster has been confirmed, NE Derbyshire and Lancs CC were the only two disappointing results from over a dozen by-elections - I don't think that justifies a conclusion of a poor night for Labour (as you say, these were hardly fertile territory). We leapfrogged you in Carterton as well. Did you expect that? |
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Feb 16, 2018 12:03:08 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on Feb 16, 2018 12:03:24 GMT
Yes. And to be honest the places they did well are places where we never have. North Norfolk or Teignbridge will never be Labour seats, whereas the LibDems have held Teignbridge and hold North Norfolk North Norfolk was a Labour-held seat from 1945 - 1970. Admittedly there has been massive demographic change there over the intervening years. 1970 was literally years ago. Liverpool used to have a majority of Tory seats. It's obvious Labour is not in contention in either of these constituencies |
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Post by Merseymike on Feb 16, 2018 12:06:10 GMT
Indeed. Now Doncaster has been confirmed, NE Derbyshire and Lancs CC were the only two disappointing results from over a dozen by-elections - I don't think that justifies a conclusion of a poor night for Labour (as you say, these were hardly fertile territory). We leapfrogged you in Carterton as well. Did you expect that? It's really irrelevant because the best we could ever do is a distant second. You can win some soft Tory voters in local by elections in seats where those voters would never even countenance voting for us. As you were down at the bottom its likely that you will do better in these sort of wards. They're just not Labourland. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 16, 2018 12:10:40 GMT
I've just seen a banner claiming that there was a referendum in part of Nantwich yesterday around housing. gwynthegriff, any idea? News to me! Could be a Neighbourhood Plan Referendum? Stapeley & Batherton Neighborhood Plan Referendum. 93% Yes (good) on a 23% turnout (bad). |
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Post by Merseymike on Feb 16, 2018 12:13:15 GMT
I will be rather surprised if Labour fail to hold Doncaster against an independent from 5 miles away who had previously been a councillor in his home patch and then had lost it. Admittedly he has the advantage of being able to hoover up any ABL votes out there but even so for Labour to lose this one would be to change a mediocre night for them into a disaster area. Whilst the LibDems had a genuinely excellent set of results, I think you are slightly overstating things with regard to us. There were no remotely realistic prospects of gains for Labour in the seats that were up, and we held all our defences (notably seeing off the Tory "blitzkrieg" in NE Derbyshire) For me, our most disappointing result was the Lancs CC one - totally didn't see your lot leapfrogging us like that. I wasn't that surprised. It contains a collection of wards where neither us nor the LibDems always contest locally. Bare ward is the safest Tory ward in Lancaster and Morecambe and both Bolton le Sands and Slyne are safely Tory though have returned independent councillors. They make up a part of the core Tory vote in Morecambe. Indeed when the boundaries were changed Labour were rather pleased as it gave the Tories a rock solid ward but made the other Morecambe seats better for Labour. Whether some of the LDs will vote tactically in the General is the question. Morecambe is a marginal but at one time before we won it we were in third place albeit on slightly different boundaries |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 16, 2018 12:15:15 GMT
Indeed. Now Doncaster has been confirmed, NE Derbyshire and Lancs CC were the only two disappointing results from over a dozen by-elections - I don't think that justifies a conclusion of a poor night for Labour (as you say, these were hardly fertile territory). We leapfrogged you in Carterton as well. Did you expect that? It was certainly less of a surprise for me. (not least because you may still have a bit of a "by-election afterglow" factor there) |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 16, 2018 12:18:10 GMT
Where on Twitter did you find this? Rather depressing that 26% is now considered a good turnout. I was elected at a byelection this week in 1983 in typically cold February weather. Turnout 40%! In inner Crewe. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 16, 2018 12:18:35 GMT
Clearly not a Village. It's part of Bebington and ultimately part of the Greater Birkenhead sprawl. Has no parish to define its boundaries. No sane person would define Bromborough as a village |
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 16, 2018 12:19:00 GMT
Indeed. Now Doncaster has been confirmed, NE Derbyshire and Lancs CC were the only two disappointing results from over a dozen by-elections - I don't think that justifies a conclusion of a poor night for Labour (as you say, these were hardly fertile territory). We leapfrogged you in Carterton as well. Did you expect that? you actually won the ward in 2007 and then didn't stand in 2014. With such a trajectory a bounceback was always likely. It does look like a safeish tory ward under most circumstances, but who knows.... |
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