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Post by yellowperil on Jan 22, 2018 11:51:01 GMT
2 English by- elections to start off February, each the result of the death of a sitting Labour councillor,but otherwise nearly as far apart as two English by-elections can be- one in Falmouth and the other in Sunderland.
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 22, 2018 12:01:30 GMT
Cornwall UA, Falmouth Smithick Division
Lab died
4 Candidates:
Richard David Cunningham (Con)
Jayne Susannah Kirkham (Lab)
Tom Scott (Green)
John Martin Spargo (Lib Dem)
Election results 2013: Lab 316, Ind 156/115/74, LD 154, Con 130
Election results 2017: Lab 480, Con 291, LD 225, Green 195
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 23, 2018 11:43:48 GMT
Sunderland City Council, Pallion Ward
Labour died
5 candidates:
Steven John Bewick (UKIP)
Gordon Robert Chalk (Lab)
Craig John Hardy (Green)
Matthew Haswell (Lib Dem)
Grant Shearer (Con)
Election results 2004: Lab 1359/1333/1148, Con 802/754, BNP 647
Election results 2006: Lab 1013, LD 453, BNP 440, Con 424
Election results 2007: Lab 1061, Con 445, Ind 314, BNP 279, LD 277
Election results 2008: Lab 1055, Con 645, BNP 377, LD 305
Election results 2010: Lab 1866, Con 739, LD 709, BNP 318
Election results 2011: Lab 1688, Con 506, Green 451
Election results 2012: Lab 1541, Con 365, Green 304, LD 101
Election results 2014: Lab 1047, UKIP 659, Con 314, Green 105, LD 67
Election results 2015: Lab 1804, UKIP 1012, Con 554, Green 153, LD 134
Election results 2016: Lab 1046, UKIP 596, Con 261, LD 91, Green 71.
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 23, 2018 12:08:40 GMT
The Sunderland by-election reminds me of what happened here almost exactly a year ago- before I had actually joined this forum, and was looking in as a guest at a political earthquake- it was a significant factor in my signing up as a member if there was going to be such interesting goings on.
To remind everyone, the Sandhill 2016 result was Lab 1229, UKIP 579, Con 277, LD 94, Green 59 -almost identical to the Pallion 2016 votes above- Sandhill marginally more favourable to Labour..
And the Jan 2017 Sandhill result was: LD 824, Lab 458, UKIP 343, Con 184, Green 23.
There are two things against the Lib Dems being able to do it again - first, Labour can scarcely be as complacent ,a year on, can they? and second, the circumstances of this election following the death of the council leader, rather than the disqualification of the sitting councillor. Certainly Labour seem to have started off this time with rather more alertness than a year ago.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 23, 2018 12:32:14 GMT
The last time Pallion ward did not vote Labour was when the Tories won it in 1992 (the boundaries may have been different pre-2004 though)
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 23, 2018 13:10:28 GMT
The last time Pallion ward did not vote Labour was when the Tories won it in 1992 (the boundaries may have been different pre-2004 though) yes looking at the maps the pre-2004 Pallion ward was quite substantially different and appears to have been much more favourable to the Tories- the last election on the old boundaries (2003) the Conservative vote was 1581, only just over 100 behind Labour. edit: if bish's point was to suggest that Pallion is safe Labour, it looks historically far less so than Sandhill was before 2017. The old ward went back and forward with the Tories. Sandhill was a new ward in 2004 but its predecessors all look solidly Labour. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jan 24, 2018 10:27:29 GMT
Falmouth is potentially interesting. Before the General Election the Lib Dems were doing very well in Cornwall by-elections, and would have had their eyes on this one. Now maybe Labour are in the ascendancy and will hold off any challenge easily?
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 24, 2018 10:48:47 GMT
Falmouth is potentially interesting. Before the General Election the Lib Dems were doing very well in Cornwall by-elections, and would have had their eyes on this one. Now maybe Labour are in the ascendancy and will hold off any challenge easily? Whilst predicting Cornish byelections is a fool's errand, the reality of party politics has shifted significantly in Falmouth, with Labour achieving a remarkable result in the Truro and Falmouth constituency last June (over 12,500 increase in votes, up 22.5% and a swing of 11.1%, from third place in 2025) to make it a Labour target. There is a strong campaign going on for the UA and Town Council seats and I would be very surprised to see Labour lose this, especially to the Lib Dems. Also, the circumstances of the byelection with the sad death of Candy Atherton, carry no negatives for Labour. Then again, this is Cornwall....... |
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Post by andrew111 on Jan 26, 2018 13:28:02 GMT
Falmouth is potentially interesting. Before the General Election the Lib Dems were doing very well in Cornwall by-elections, and would have had their eyes on this one. Now maybe Labour are in the ascendancy and will hold off any challenge easily? Whilst predicting Cornish byelections is a fool's errand, the reality of party politics has shifted significantly in Falmouth, with Labour achieving a remarkable result in the Truro and Falmouth constituency last June (over 12,500 increase in votes, up 22.5% and a swing of 11.1%, from third place in 2025) to make it a Labour target. There is a strong campaign going on for the UA and Town Council seats and I would be very surprised to see Labour lose this, especially to the Lib Dems. Also, the circumstances of the byelection with the sad death of Candy Atherton, carry no negatives for Labour. Then again, this is Cornwall....... Not only is it Cornwall but it is a local by-election... What happened in the general election may not be a good guide. Labour SHOULD do well here of course, especially since the candidate is the PPC who did so well in June and should have excellent name recognition. It would be a huge shock if she lost (but still would have little relevance to the next General Election, but some relevance to the next local elections) |
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Post by markgoodair on Jan 30, 2018 12:38:56 GMT
Falmouth is potentially interesting. Before the General Election the Lib Dems were doing very well in Cornwall by-elections, and would have had their eyes on this one. Now maybe Labour are in the ascendancy and will hold off any challenge easily? How much is the Labour vote dependent on the students from outside of Cornwall doing their studies at the University in Falmouth? |
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k9
Non-Aligned
Posts: 126 
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Post by k9 on Jan 30, 2018 16:51:41 GMT
How much is the Labour vote dependent on the students from outside of Cornwall doing their studies at the University in Falmouth? The BBC recently had: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42747342 and the university itself I understand is not in this ward but in Conservative held Arwenack ward? On the town council the ward is split Liberal Democrat and Labour. |
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Post by lancastrian on Jan 31, 2018 1:17:44 GMT
Falmouth Smithick appears to be very similar to the old Arwenack ward, which was 37% student in 2011. The area looks to have gained anywhere from 1000-2000 students since then. The growth of the universities seems to be a big issue in the area, with plans for another 2500 students.
Not sure how many students actually vote in local elections in the area, in the past at least - UKIP won the ward containing the Penrhyn campus in 2013.
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Jan 31, 2018 11:15:22 GMT
2 boring lab holds
NEXT!
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Post by jonnymorris on Feb 1, 2018 7:54:43 GMT
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Feb 1, 2018 9:31:35 GMT
Falmouth hasn't been the same since Rev Barrington Bennetts passed away.
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Post by cherrycoffin on Feb 1, 2018 10:27:17 GMT
Most students who live off campus in Falmouth (about 2/3) live in this ward. I would expect it to stay Labour but the Lib Dems gained another Falmouth seat in the county council elections last year, and that Ward contained a fair number of students so I wouldn’t write the Lib Dems off just yet.
And, what with the allegations against the Conservative candidate, most of the tactical vote will likely go to the Lib Dems
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Post by cherrycoffin on Feb 1, 2018 10:30:37 GMT
Falmouth is potentially interesting. Before the General Election the Lib Dems were doing very well in Cornwall by-elections, and would have had their eyes on this one. Now maybe Labour are in the ascendancy and will hold off any challenge easily? How much is the Labour vote dependent on the students from outside of Cornwall doing their studies at the University in Falmouth? Labour probably aren’t overly dependent on students here given the history of Falmouth at the parliamentary level, although having a fair number of students won’t hurt. By by the way, Penryn Campus itself is in the Camborne and Redruth constituency rather than in Falmouth and Truro. This may help to explain why Labiur got close in both seats without winning either. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Feb 1, 2018 10:50:22 GMT
Deleted.
I was going to post a link to the 'accusations' mentioned above but now see it has already been done.
I haven't found an Andrew Teale preview yet, so I can't put that link up either ...
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 1, 2018 11:02:14 GMT
Deleted. I was going to post a link to the 'accusations' mentioned above but now see it has already been done. I haven't found an Andrew Teale preview yet, so I can't put that link up either ... yes I had already posted my predictions for Falmouth when these accusations surfaced, and didn't quite have time to tweak them as a result of new knowledge. That and not having the benefit of Andrew's insights makes these two predictions dodgier than ever. |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Feb 1, 2018 11:04:27 GMT
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