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Post by nigelashton on Feb 1, 2018 23:26:19 GMT
The Sunderland by-election reminds me of what happened here almost exactly a year ago- before I had actually joined this forum, and was looking in as a guest at a political earthquake- it was a significant factor in my signing up as a member if there was going to be such interesting goings on. To remind everyone, the Sandhill 2016 result was Lab 1229, UKIP 579, Con 277, LD 94, Green 59 -almost identical to the Pallion 2016 votes above- Sandhill marginally more favourable to Labour.. And the Jan 2017 Sandhill result was: LD 824, Lab 458, UKIP 343, Con 184, Green 23. There are two things against the Lib Dems being able to do it again - first, Labour can scarcely be as complacent ,a year on, can they? and second, the circumstances of this election following the death of the council leader, rather than the disqualification of the sitting councillor. Certainly Labour seem to have started off this time with rather more alertness than a year ago. It's fun reading back up the thread when you know the result |
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Post by ideal4radio on Feb 1, 2018 23:30:43 GMT
What explains this LD performance? In an area where hell would freeze over before some electors would vote Tory, the Lib Dems are merely reverting to their classical position of a repository for disenchanted voters of one of the two major parties. UKIP had taken some of that vote, but is now seen as a party whose " raison d'etre " has been achieved, and is in chaos in any event. It's a rejection of Labour's leadership, London centric focus, and concentration on Gender/Race/Sexuality issues from a Community that have more basic concerns, namely the absence of quality jobs, crime levels and lack of opportunities for the young... imho, of course... |
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 1, 2018 23:32:24 GMT
Electorate in 2015 was 7,326 which would give a turnout this time of 31.7%. It'll be slightly different of course because the electorate won't be the same as 2015. |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Feb 1, 2018 23:39:37 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 1, 2018 23:46:20 GMT
I suppose the leadership and london centric focus is why labour only got 60% of the vote in Falmouth
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Feb 1, 2018 23:51:10 GMT
Which makes Lab 60.2% (+19.9) Con 17.2% (-7.2) LD 17.2% (-1.7) Grn 5.3% (-11.1) |
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Feb 1, 2018 23:51:28 GMT
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Post by president1 on Feb 1, 2018 23:53:51 GMT
Wow - I certainly did not see this coming. The LibDems have come from absolutely nowhere, with an increase in vote rarely seen, except in exceptional circumstances! Is there anyone here from the area, that can tell us of anything controversial about the campaign or the candidates that could have caused this result?
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Post by Deleted on Feb 1, 2018 23:56:42 GMT
exceptional circumstances! |
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Feb 1, 2018 23:57:16 GMT
I take my earlier statement back I'm assuming you mean on the whole forum, not just this thread  |
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Post by ideal4radio on Feb 1, 2018 23:59:01 GMT
I suppose the leadership and london centric focus is why labour only got 60% of the vote in Falmouth I think you'll find the question was about Sunderland... different issues in Falmouth.. |
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Feb 1, 2018 23:59:04 GMT
I take my earlier statement back I'm assuming you mean on the whole forum, not just this thread Sorry to disappoint but it's just the one for today. |
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oddroutes
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Post by oddroutes on Feb 1, 2018 23:59:12 GMT
congrats resident LDs. seriously though how/why did that happen?
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 2, 2018 0:01:19 GMT
I'm old enough to remember when the LibDems gaining Brinsworth & Catcliffe in Rotherham was massively overanalysed here as well. This sort of thing used to happen all the time before 2010.
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Feb 2, 2018 0:03:08 GMT
So how many homes did they plan to build in Pallion and how loudly did the Lib Dems oppose them?
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Post by andrew111 on Feb 2, 2018 0:04:10 GMT
What explains this LD performance? I heard RED LEAFLETS Yeah right! Red leaflets that clearly say Liberal Democrat on them really make people switch their vote! They might occasionally make people pick up the leaflet and realise who the best candidate is of course... If there is a lesson to be learned at all from these two local by-elections it is that Labour can be pretty keen and effective in a place of new and recent success but still really complacent in a one-Party State "heartland" |
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 2, 2018 0:05:02 GMT
The Sunderland by-election reminds me of what happened here almost exactly a year ago- before I had actually joined this forum, and was looking in as a guest at a political earthquake- it was a significant factor in my signing up as a member if there was going to be such interesting goings on. To remind everyone, the Sandhill 2016 result was Lab 1229, UKIP 579, Con 277, LD 94, Green 59 -almost identical to the Pallion 2016 votes above- Sandhill marginally more favourable to Labour.. And the Jan 2017 Sandhill result was: LD 824, Lab 458, UKIP 343, Con 184, Green 23. There are two things against the Lib Dems being able to do it again - first, Labour can scarcely be as complacent ,a year on, can they? and second, the circumstances of this election following the death of the council leader, rather than the disqualification of the sitting councillor. Certainly Labour seem to have started off this time with rather more alertness than a year ago. It's fun reading back up the thread when you know the result Well ,yes indeed it is. This is the result, almost exactly, I would have liked to have predicted and might have done if if I had the courage to follow gut instinct, but it was easier to follow the arguments against lightning striking twice. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 2, 2018 0:09:13 GMT
I think he was joking. But I do remember the Lib Dems putting out green leaflets in Bristol West. Maybe people wouldn't change their vote but worth a try?
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Post by lancastrian on Feb 2, 2018 0:18:39 GMT
Our local party in Sunderland is obviously doing something right. Question is what is it and can you replicate it elsewhere. The wards where you have councillors in Sunderland are nothing like typical 2017 Lib Dem territory, indeed from a quick glance they may be the poorest places you have councillors anywhere in the country. The Lib Dems do appear to be against Sunderland's Special Responsibility Allowances - 21 councillors got over £10,000 in the most recent available figures, plus the basic allowance of £8,369. It wasn't entirely a local effort - Tim Farron was campaigning there last weekend. |
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Feb 2, 2018 0:29:04 GMT
Knowing Twitter, the result in Sunderland will be cited as PROOF that Brexit is being rejected (due to big LD swing) while the result in Falmouth will be cited as PROOF that the country is perfectly satisifed with the way Brexit is going (due to decline in LD vote share). Because Brexit is the only issue that anyone votes on, duh.
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