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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 7, 2018 0:17:09 GMT
Looks like a swing of 5.3% from Con to Lab.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 7, 2018 0:17:35 GMT
Lab 60.7%
C 25.4%
L Dem 6.3%
PC 5.7%
GP 1.9%
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thetop
Labour
[k4r]
Posts: 945
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Post by thetop on Feb 7, 2018 0:18:37 GMT
L 11267 60.7 (+15.0)
C 4722 25.4 (+4.4)
l 1176 6.3 (+1.8)
P 1059 5.7 (-3.3)
G 353 1.9 (-0.5)
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Post by lancastrian on Feb 7, 2018 0:22:04 GMT
Looks like a swing of 5.3% from Con to Lab. The assembly seat has never been as closely contested as the Westminster one, but from 2017 that's a swing of 11.8% from Con to Lab, or 13.6% from 2015. |
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Post by Merseymike on Feb 7, 2018 0:24:32 GMT
Very good result and congratulations to Jack Seargeant who I'm sure will work hard for the area he loves.
Bet he'd rather his dad was still alive though.
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thetop
Labour
[k4r]
Posts: 945
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Post by thetop on Feb 7, 2018 0:29:58 GMT
Yeah, the unfortunate circumstances this was called in really removes any joy for what looks to be a strong result.
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135 
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Post by Foggy on Feb 7, 2018 0:40:20 GMT
During the speeches I couldn't help but notice that the new AM looks and sounds a lot like a guy from Shotton with whom I studied German at Bangor. All right, so the 'sounds' part of that observation shouldn't come as a surprise.  That is about the most interesting take I have on what was a comfortable hold for the incumbent party in the end. Now we'll see how well the rookie gets along with Carwyn and friends down in Cardiff Bay... |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Feb 7, 2018 7:59:29 GMT
ATHERTON, Sarah Elizabeth (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate / Ymgeisydd Plaid Geidwadol Cymru) 4,722 HARPER, Carrie (Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales) 1,059 LALEK, Donna Louise (Welsh Liberal Democrats / Democratiaid Rhyddfrydol Cymru) 1,176 REES, Duncan (The Green Party / Plaid Werdd) 353 SARGEANT, Jack (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru) 11,267An improvement on our 2016 total, I note... Wales supports Brexit, remember, so a lot of ex-UKIPpers I guess. |
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 7, 2018 8:04:48 GMT
Majority well over the 30% mark which means just 3 of our predictors were correct (not me, but I was on the second tier so nearer than most)
From a largely irrelevant Lib Dem perspective, the Dalek did well not to get exterminated in the circumstances of this election and at least improved her vote share.
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Feb 7, 2018 8:23:48 GMT
Well. At least our vote share went up. Silver linings and all that.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,730
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Post by Chris from Brum on Feb 7, 2018 8:46:57 GMT
Poor result for Plaid?
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Feb 7, 2018 9:17:00 GMT
Very - by-elections are tricky but Plaid did put the effort in, and were probably hoping for 12-15%. Although this probably is the most un-welsh bit of Wales and they've never held their deposit in Westminster elections here - the highest vote share they've ever won their is 3.9% |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,730
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Post by Chris from Brum on Feb 7, 2018 9:18:36 GMT
Although this probably is the most un-welsh bit of Wales ... Less Welsh than the Maelor Saesneg? Interesting. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Feb 7, 2018 9:33:12 GMT
Most un-welsh constituency then
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2018 11:02:49 GMT
This seems to be in line with the polls. Around about 4% swing from 2016 it was a 2% swing here in 2017 like it was nationwide. A 2% swing since then is about right.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 7, 2018 11:48:50 GMT
Given the distinctly sub-optimal circumstances of this vacancy, Labour will surely be content today. Especially given that low turnouts generally don't favour them.
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 7, 2018 11:54:38 GMT
Well. At least our vote share went up. Silver linings and all that. True, but look at the actual increase in votes- up just 164 over 2016 (Lib Dems up 196, Labour up 2345), Given there were 3765 kipper votes up for grabs, the assumption must be they overwhelmingly went to Labour or stayed at home. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 7, 2018 11:58:08 GMT
Some will very likely have gone Tory (hence their own 4 point increase) But yes, I would think they had been hoping for a bit better.
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Feb 7, 2018 12:00:35 GMT
Just like the GE, there will have been all sorts of swirls going on.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2018 13:03:11 GMT
Most un-welsh constituency then Monmouth? |
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