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Post by justin124 on Aug 12, 2017 11:02:59 GMT
To clarify, I was not saying that Labour are not doing well in all sorts of locations,and nothing I said implied this was just a seaside phenomenon, merely that extrapolating purely on the basis of the rather peculiar case of the seaside seats would be misleading. There are places where Labour are not doing so well and some of those are in their traditional heartlands, but if they can at least hang on to these then yes we could be into a landslide. Hm.. I think people are underestimating how hard it is for Labour to get a majority, let alone a landslide..There is no sign that Labour are going to poll above 45% at the moment, and in those circumstances they need some other Party to rise up and take mainly Tory votes. Currently the Tory % is shored up by Brexit supporters (and Corbyn-haters; contrary to some opinion there are still plenty of them around). The only circumstances for a Labour landslide I see would be the Tories going "soft" on Brexit and losing votes to a rejuvenated UKIP, but UKIP would need to be above 15% I would think... Labour appears to be well placed to pick up a further 25 seats in Scotland alone next time - mainly though not exclusively at SNP expense. That alone would take them close to 290 seats - which would imply an additional circa 35 gains needed for an overall majority. |
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Post by justin124 on Aug 12, 2017 18:48:00 GMT
I don't think it's realistic for Labour to make gains in Scotland except from the SNP, at present. However, there are plenty of seats they can expect to gain from the SNP with a modest swing. I actually believe there are several Tory -held seats in Scotland which Labour could win from third place. Specifically I have in mind East Renfrewshire - Ochil& South Perthshire- Strirling - and possibly Ayr,Carrick & Cumnock. I suspect that many former Labour voters misdirected themselves in such seats and were largely unaware of the late Labour surge. As a result, many voted tactically for the Tory to defeat the SNP - but are now likely to switch back. This will be particularly true if the issue next time is getting rid of a Tory PM - rather than preventing a second Independence Referendum.For that reason, there might be the potential for a very strong surge in those seats with Labour rising from circa 20% to circa 35%. |
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 27, 2017 12:54:25 GMT
Landslides often happen when the voters of the opposition don't bother to vote.
Not because they move wholesale to the other party.
2001 the classic example
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Aug 27, 2017 13:15:59 GMT
Landslides often happen when the voters of the opposition don't bother to vote.Not because they move wholesale to the other party. 2001 the classic example More often than the alternative, I'd have thought. |
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Post by jigger on Aug 27, 2017 13:39:28 GMT
Landslides often happen when the voters of the opposition don't bother to vote. Not because they move wholesale to the other party. 2001 the classic example Indeed the only landslide since 1970 which has been as a result of a positive surge in support for a party is the 1997 Labour landslide. And even when there are positive surges in support for a party, that doesn't necessarily result in landslides. In 2017 there was a positive surge in support for both the Conservatives and Labour but Labour were too close to the Conservatives to result in a Conservative landslide and Labour were too far behind the Conservatives to start off with to get a Labour landslide. |
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,126
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Post by ColinJ on Oct 19, 2018 11:34:20 GMT
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