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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 3, 2017 22:46:56 GMT
Britain Elects report the Worthing Marine ward figures as:
LAB: 47.4% (+27.8)
CON: 38.8% (-6.4)
LDEM: 11.3% (+1.1)
GRN: 2.5% (-6.2)
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Aug 3, 2017 22:47:03 GMT
CHARNWOOD Loughborough Shelthorpe HUDDLESTONE, Richard Albert (Labour Party) 595 FORD, Russell Victor (The Conservative Party Candidate) 591 GUERRERO, Alex (Liberal Democrats) 93 MCWILLIAM, Andy (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 29 Lab 45.5% (+5.8) Con 45.2% (+0.1) LD 7.1% UKIP 2.2% |
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Post by Ben Walker on Aug 3, 2017 22:48:33 GMT
That Marine result:
Lab: 1,032
Con: 846
LDem: 246
Grn: 55
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Aug 3, 2017 22:54:29 GMT
That Marine result: Lab: 1,032 Con: 846 LDem: 246 Grn: 55 Absolutely stunning. Labour has never got anyrhing like that number of votes here, let alone the percentage. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 3, 2017 22:59:42 GMT
Labour squeaked one seat out of three in Broadwater ward in 1973; that's the only previous Labour win in Worthing. Before local government reform Labour had one seat on Worthing borough from 1972, and one who served in 1957-1959.
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 3, 2017 23:19:54 GMT
Britain Elects are now saying King's Lynn are counting tomorrow as well as Swale.
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 3, 2017 23:26:15 GMT
Re the Loughborough result, there are of course many students in Loughborough. The rather low totals for both Labour & the Tories suggest that it might be a case of students not being in residence. Is that correct in that ward? Not according to Andrew's previews, no. britainelects.com/2017/08/02/previews-03-aug-2017/ |
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 3, 2017 23:28:19 GMT
Its also been claimed that Worthing is now seeing some more general migration from Gtr London (rather as Brighton has done) there are parallels with Leigh on Sea in Essex which we have discussed here reasonably recently. |
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 3, 2017 23:29:59 GMT
Britain Elects are now saying King's Lynn are counting tomorrow as well as Swale. Now they tell us!  |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 3, 2017 23:33:57 GMT
Britain Elects are now saying King's Lynn are counting tomorrow as well as Swale. Now they tell us! Indeed 🙄 |
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Post by warofdreams on Aug 4, 2017 0:20:55 GMT
The major party result in Margate was Labour 454, Conservative 190. don't have minor party details. UKIP 52, Lib Dem 33, Green 23, Inds 24 & 13 |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Aug 4, 2017 0:42:29 GMT
The major party result in Margate was Labour 454, Conservative 190. don't have minor party details. UKIP 52, Lib Dem 33, Green 23, Inds 24 & 13 Lab 57.5% (+25.2) Con 24.1% (+3.1) UKIP 6.6% (-23.8) LD 4.2% Ind 3.0% Grn 2.9% (-8.1) Ind 1.6% Abysmal performance by UKIP, astonishing one for Labour. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 4, 2017 0:48:00 GMT
Exciting results tonight for Corbyn supporters.
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 4, 2017 1:51:08 GMT
Oh they do like to be beside the seaside (as N Farage said, in slightly differing circumstances)
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Post by marksenior on Aug 4, 2017 6:11:57 GMT
Well done to Labour in Worthing Marine . The Labour vote was about what I expected given the effort they put in but in the absence of UKIP I expected Conservatives to be able to get out 1100 to 1200 votes and win . So a really bad Conservative performance .
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Post by archaeologist on Aug 4, 2017 6:15:11 GMT
Stunning Labour result in Worthing. But a narrow hold in Charnwood. I'm being a little mathematically challenged though about the percentage point changes. Labour only just hold on but their vote increase is +5.8 while the Conservative challenger only gained +0.1. Admittedly I have only just woken up but I'm struggling to understand how that works out.
We've some big Labour vote gains in the last few weeks. Shepway +21.5, Staffordshire Moorlands +25.6, North Dorset +25.1, Worthing +27.8, Thanet +25.2. Do we know where these votes are coming from? Is there any consistent pattern?
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Aug 4, 2017 6:24:42 GMT
Stunning Labour result in Worthing. But a narrow hold in Charnwood. I'm being a little mathematically challenged though about the percentage point changes. Labour only just hold on but their vote increase is +5.8 while the Conservative challenger only gained +0.1. Admittedly I have only just woken up but I'm struggling to understand how that works out. We've some big Labour vote gains in the last few weeks. Shepway +21.5, Staffordshire Moorlands +25.6, North Dorset +25.1, Worthing +27.8, Thanet +25.2. Do we know where these votes are coming from? Is there any consistent pattern? Charnwood is a double-seater. It elected 1 Con and 1 Lab in 2015, with the Con topping the poll. In Southern England, it seems the UKIP vote is going to Labour, quite heavily (while it goes to Conservatives in the North). |
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Post by archaeologist on Aug 4, 2017 7:05:40 GMT
Ah, that explains Charnwood. Also the Green vote is going heavily Labour. I note three out of the five large Labour increases are in District with a heavy Leave vote in the referendum 62% +. I think I need to do some number-crunching to see if there is a real pattern.
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YL
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Post by YL on Aug 4, 2017 7:58:06 GMT
I think some of this is that the anti-establishment "protest voter" demographic of the sort which often went Lib Dem pre-Coalition in spite of not being particularly small-l liberal and then attached itself to UKIP is now quite keen on Jeremy Corbyn. That presumably doesn't work so well where Labour are actually the establishment...
As for Worthing, there has clearly been some demographic change, now less Costa Geriatrica and more Hove West. The political shift seems unusually rapid, but perhaps that's because Labour are now organised enough to take advantage. I presume Labour will now make a real play for at least East Worthing & Shoreham in the next General Election.
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 4, 2017 8:53:32 GMT
I think some of this is that the anti-establishment "protest voter" demographic of the sort which often went Lib Dem pre-Coalition in spite of not being particularly small-l liberal and then attached itself to UKIP is now quite keen on Jeremy Corbyn. That presumably doesn't work so well where Labour are actually the establishment... As for Worthing, there has clearly been some demographic change, now less Costa Geriatrica and more Hove West. The political shift seems unusually rapid, but perhaps that's because Labour are now organised enough to take advantage. I presume Labour will now make a real play for at least East Worthing & Shoreham in the next General Election. Agree absolutely with your first para. The second para on Worthing looks like falling into the trap the Lib Dems were often accused of when they hoovered up the protest vote in by- elections and then started to make grand assumptions about general election prospects in consequence. Note that the by-election team led by a parliamentary candidate can do wonders in a single ward by-election. Doesn't necessarily extend to a full scale all out national election, though I would concede that Labour with far more resources at their disposalmight have more chance of making it work than Lib Dems or UKIP. |
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