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Post by yellowperil on Aug 4, 2017 16:13:45 GMT
Labour HOLD in Shelthorpe, Charnwood. Labour GAIN over UKIP in Margate Central, Thanet.Which means that Thanet goes from UKIP control to NOC. I believe Thanet had already gone NOC with a defection from UKIP to the Tories a couple of weeks ago. Maybe that was with Margate Central being vacant, there was the theoretical possibility that UKIP could regain control by winning last night. Just how theoretical that was has now been amply demonstrated. |
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 4, 2017 16:31:27 GMT
It also means that Labour should include both Thanet seats on their target lust.
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Post by Robert Waller on Aug 4, 2017 17:06:25 GMT
It also means that Labour should include both Thanet seats on their target lust. Now that makes the mind boggle ...  |
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 4, 2017 17:15:08 GMT
It also means that Labour should include both Thanet seats on their target lust. Like in 1997 you mean? |
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 4, 2017 17:16:14 GMT
It also means that Labour should include both Thanet seats on their target lust. Now that makes the mind boggle ... among other things.  |
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Aug 4, 2017 17:50:35 GMT
It also means that Labour should include both Thanet seats on their target lust. I wish but not really, as there was already a 20% swing from UKIP to Labour factored in at the General Election in North Thanet. Labour should concentrate on South Thanet. |
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 4, 2017 18:24:39 GMT
I have been attempting to clarify in my mind the situation on Thanet council after this week's by election. According to the council website, the UKIP group is now 27. the Conservative group 21, Labour 6, Independents 2. Bev Martin, the UKIP councillor who recently defected to the Tories is listed as "Conservative Party" not Conservative group, which I assume means she has not as yet been accepted into the Tory group and is therefore a non-group person at present. The new Labour councillor for Margate Central takes their group to 7
So effectively the UKIP administration can call on 27 votes and the combined opposition will now be 31- well into NOC territory. Can there be any chance of bringing down the UKIP administration or can they play off Tories and Labour to hang on with dwindling authority with a strong chance of further defections and/or by-elections further diminishing them? Does anyone here have any notions of the most likely outcome?
Edit: if the above figures are correct UKIP had effectively lost control even before the Bev Martin defection as the figures would have been 28-29 with one vacancy?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 4, 2017 20:42:37 GMT
Now that makes the mind boggle ... among other things. I was up for 1997 I'd be up for 2017 if that were to happen...something about Tory seats falling in droves to Labour that warms the heart. Call it a lust for the left... |
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 5, 2017 6:59:21 GMT
And I was up for 83! Now that was a very good year!
They come and they go.
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 5, 2017 8:20:55 GMT
among other things. I was up for 1997 I'd be up for 2017 if that were to happen...something about Tory seats falling in droves to Labour that warms the heart. Call it a lust for the left... 2017 did happen so maybe you weren't up for it? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2017 8:57:35 GMT
I was up for 1997 I'd be up for 2017 if that were to happen...something about Tory seats falling in droves to Labour that warms the heart. Call it a lust for the left... 2017 did happen so maybe you weren't up for it? I meant were there to another unexpected GE between now and the end of the year. Of course this won't be a scenario the LibDems would ever face it..? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2017 8:59:50 GMT
And I was up for 83! Now that was a very good year! They come and they go. Glad you enjoyed it, as it will probably be the last Tory landslide for many many years (or perhaps ever...) |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 5, 2017 9:01:15 GMT
1987 arguably, but yeah.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 5, 2017 9:54:04 GMT
Let us not repeat the error that cost the Tories their majority and throw huge resources on fools gold while assuming seats elsewhere were in the bank...
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Post by akmd on Aug 5, 2017 10:20:58 GMT
Indeed. North Thanet is somewhere where Labour does not need to waste valuable resources other than getting a good result in Margate and it's suburbs. As Barnaby says, South Thanet is far more winnable as is neighbouring Dover. Labour's priorities in Kent at the next general election should be to hold Canterbury and gain Thanet South and Dover. If things are looking particularly good, then it would also be worth diverting some resources to the traditional North Kent marginals. I still think it's going to be sometime before the party gets a chance to put that strategy into practice though.
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 5, 2017 11:54:03 GMT
And I was up for 83! Now that was a very good year! They come and they go. Glad you enjoyed it, as it will probably be the last Tory landslide for many many years (or perhaps ever...) Oh but yes I did.
We just never know about when there will be a 'landslide' but I warrant there will be one for us before I shuffle off and one is far more likely soon for us than for you. Your core structure for winning is very weak and looks vulnerable to many factors.
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 5, 2017 12:20:50 GMT
That's a bold assertion. The Tories are dependent on the group of voters who, while very likely to vote, are most likely to die, and they're dependent on groups of voters failing to come out who currently are very motivated to come out. Except of course middle aged people are becoming old people all the time. it's been going on for years. |
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 5, 2017 13:07:41 GMT
That's a bold assertion. The Tories are dependent on the group of voters who, while very likely to vote, are most likely to die, and they're dependent on groups of voters failing to come out who currently are very motivated to come out. Except of course middle aged people are becoming old people all the time. it's been going on for years. In 1975 the then argument was that the "young" were very much in favour of staying in the EC whilst it was the older generation who was opposed. Those voting in 1975 are now either of pensionable age or approaching it. I believe a large proportion of those "young" voters have changed their minds (possibly more than once) over the years as a result of their varied experiences. The same may, or may not, happen with today's youngsters. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Aug 5, 2017 13:22:37 GMT
If Labour are winning in North Thanet then it's a landslide. East Worthing and Shoreham definitely looks like a constituency Labour will need to target to get a majority, while South Thanet would be for a comfortable one. Considering Canterbury is nearby, I think Labour should focus on Canterbury instead of North Thanet.
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 5, 2017 13:30:37 GMT
Except of course middle aged people are becoming old people all the time. it's been going on for years. In 1975 the then argument was that the "young" were very much in favour of staying in the EC whilst it was the older generation who was opposed. Those voting in 1975 are now either of pensionable age or approaching it. I believe a large proportion of those "young" voters have changed their minds (possibly more than once) over the years as a result of their varied experiences. The same may, or may not, happen with today's youngsters. well quite, none of us stay the same forever. And the political landscape changes etc, etc. |
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