Austrian Parliamentary Election

[Georg Ebner]

Far more painful for Kurz could be, that Strache revealed a StrategyPaper from August 2016 with a detailed plan for a Kurz-campaign. So far Kurz has claimed, that he hadn't made preparations before becoming PartyLeader in spring 2017 and his surrounding denies the existence of such papers.
There have been rumours for months, that FPÖ will publish something like that.

[greenhert]

My guide to this election: greensocialistalan.blogspot.co.uk/2017/08/alans-green-thoughts-guide-to-austrian.html

[Devil Wincarnate]

Aug 30, 2017 21:59:54 GMT greenhert said:

My guide to this election: greensocialistalan.blogspot.co.uk/2017/08/alans-green-thoughts-guide-to-austrian.html

I enjoyed that, but would counsel that the SPOe and OeVP only seem similar from the outside, as they fulfil different functions. That they govern together in a similar way is a different problem...

[Georg Ebner]

Aug 30, 2017 22:35:53 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Aug 30, 2017 21:59:54 GMT greenhert said:

My guide to this election: greensocialistalan.blogspot.co.uk/2017/08/alans-green-thoughts-guide-to-austrian.html

I enjoyed that, but would counsel that the SPOe and OeVP only seem similar from the outside, as they fulfil different functions. That they govern together in a similar way is a different problem...

Yes, the PartyLabels are problematic:
- T.Stronach's only ideology was the SuccessStory of billionaire Stronach
- NEOS consist mainly of young InSiders of ÖVP's rightliberal BusinessWing (Strolz was coaching Kurz in rhetorics once!), added by the relicts of - indeed leftliberal - LiberalesForum and moderate/non-leftextreme ex-members of the GREEN-Business-association; of course, economical Liberalism ("NeoLiberalism") is highly unpopular in the country of v.Mises/Schumpeter/v.Hayek/..., so NEOS have often stressed rather their left Liberalism concerning religion/ethics aso.
- Indeed, SPÖ and ÖVP are sub specie aeterni very similar - as roughly all parties nowadays are democratic, proProgress, proBusiness, social, ecological -, but as soon as we vary within present parties, SPÖ has been rhetorically radical (post-1945: "the eastern-most party in the West"), prohibiting the rise of a purely leftextreme party so far. (ÖVP are normal continental exChristDemocrats.)

- I am not sure, that the GEEENS will be suffering "long-term damage": If Pilz will fail or will focus on LeftPopulism, they could recover soonly.
- SPÖ will still try to compete not only with FPÖ, but also with ÖVP.

Great, that the fate of my small country is echoed in BigBritain, thank You!

[Georg Ebner]

Aug 30, 2017 10:18:49 GMT Georg Ebner said:

As Austria has several small privateTeleVision-channels - ServusTV, Puls4, ATV; oe24 (from the NewsPaper "Österreich) - an endless number of debates are scheduled (i have read somewhere, that Kurz and Kern will meet 7 times!).
Most important is certainly public broadcaster ORF, whose preDebates ("SummerTalks") at 9 p.m. are mostly over (Kern/SPÖ will be next week). Watchers:
500.000 Lunacek GREENS
550.000 Strolz NEOS
800.000 Strache FPÖ
1.034.000 Kurz ÖVP

The moderator handled Kurz aggressively for being too unconcrete, what should rather help Austria's favourite SonInLaw.

It came out, that the moderator was once on vacation in the same finca as Kern (because their children attended the same SchoolClass).

[Georg Ebner]

Aug 30, 2017 10:18:49 GMT Georg Ebner said:

As Austria has several small privateTeleVision-channels - ServusTV, Puls4, ATV; oe24 (from the NewsPaper "Österreich) - an endless number of debates are scheduled (i have read somewhere, that Kurz and Kern will meet 7 times!).
Most important is certainly public broadcaster ORF, whose preDebates ("SummerTalks") at 9 p.m. are mostly over (Kern/SPÖ will be next week). Watchers:
500.000 Lunacek GREENS
550.000 Strolz NEOS
800.000 Strache FPÖ
1.034.000 Kurz ÖVP

The moderator handled Kurz aggressively for being too unconcrete, what should rather help Austria's favourite SonInLaw.

Kern was watched yesterday evening by about 900.000 people, clearly behind Kurz, despite the scandal with the moderator (see above).
Kurz was the only ever above 1.000.000 (with the exception of Strache in 2015 [RefugeeCrisis]).

[Georg Ebner]

...and Kern announced to lead SPÖ into opposition, if he will miss the first place.
(Doubtful, that he would/could stay then, though.)

[Georg Ebner]

You are nolens volens taking part in innerAustrian debates:



"Remain critical with the EU.
But REMAIN.
That's GREEN"

[Georg Ebner]

Another GREEN-poster:



"In the core [KERN] KURZ is a STRACHE"

[Georg Ebner]

"The core [=KERN] -problem: The ClimateCrisis":



"It's shortly [=KURZ] before 12":

[Foggy]

Both the President and the man who dresses up as the Kaiser for a living have made interventions in the past week that come across to me a bit like the Queen's "think very carefully" remark from before the Scottish referendum 3 years ago... yet I can't think what their comparable motivation would be.

The polls don't indicate that Strache will be poised for the Chancellorship or that Kurz – if anyone even has a reason to see him as somehow dangerous – will be given anything like an overwhelming mandate (i.e. an absolute majority).

[albion]

Sept 14, 2017 18:34:14 GMT Foggy said:

Both the President and the man who dresses up as the Kaiser for a living have made interventions in the past week that come across to me a bit like the Queen's "think very carefully" remark from before the Scottish referendum 3 years ago... yet I can't think what their comparable motivation would be.

The polls don't indicate that Strache will be poised for the Chancellorship or that Kurz – if anyone even has a reason to see him as somehow dangerous – will be given anything like an overwhelming mandate (i.e. an absolute majority).

I was wondering if Kurz changed the spelling of his name to avoid confusion with the character in Heart of Darkness.

[Devil Wincarnate]

The absolute majorities in post-war elections are (with the number needed for a majority in brackets):
-1971- SPOe- 93 (92)
-1975- SPOe- 93 (92)
-1979-SPOe- 95 (92)

The closest I can see since then are (with the majority needed in brackets):
-2002-OeVP: 79 (92)
-1990-SPOe: 80 (92)
-1986-SPOe: 80 (92)
-1983-SPOe: 90 (92)

Herr Ebner can correct me but I'm not sure that any of the SPOe governments, or the brief OeVP single-party administration, were truly single-party governments, and either the FPOe supported from outside or the other major Volkspartei were consulted heavily.

[Georg Ebner]

Sept 14, 2017 18:34:14 GMT Foggy said:

Both the President and the man who dresses up as the Kaiser for a living have made interventions in the past week that come across to me a bit like the Queen's "think very carefully" remark from before the Scottish referendum 3 years ago... yet I can't think what their comparable motivation would be.

The polls don't indicate that Strache will be poised for the Chancellorship or that Kurz – if anyone even has a reason to see him as somehow dangerous – will be given anything like an overwhelming mandate (i.e. an absolute majority).

I haven't seen that comedian (who is probably a LeftWinger).
v.d.Bellen's attempt (widely ignored) is the usual awful preacher-sermons our presidents spew down on us poor citizens ...

[Georg Ebner]

Sept 14, 2017 21:17:13 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

The absolute majorities in post-war elections are (with the number needed for a majority in brackets):
-1971- SPOe- 93 (92)
-1975- SPOe- 93 (92)
-1979-SPOe- 95 (92)

The closest I can see since then are (with the majority needed in brackets):
-2002-OeVP: 79 (92)
-1990-SPOe: 80 (92)
-1986-SPOe: 80 (92)
-1983-SPOe: 90 (92)

Herr Ebner can correct me but I'm not sure that any of the SPOe governments, or the brief OeVP single-party administration, were truly single-party governments, and either the FPOe supported from outside or the other major Volkspartei were consulted heavily.

The ÖVP won also SeatMajorities (85/165) in 1945 and 1966.
1945-49 was an AllPartyCoalition (ÖVP&SPÖ; KPÖ participating until 1948).
1966-70 and 1971-83 were unicoloured governments, but ÖVP was 1966-70 weakened by internal battles between the 3 ÖVP-Bünde (peasants vs. economy vs. "workers") and the "SozialPartnerschaft" (cooperation of employers and employees) naturally softened any opposition.
The FPÖ was waiting for Kreisky losing his SeatMajority and taking them into government (what was intended 1971 and 1975, but happened not before 1983, after 12 long years), so their attacks in parliament were often unserious.
Generally being Bavarians we love theatre and as a consequence the OppositionParties have played their roles in parliament.

[Devil Wincarnate]

I do forget that Austrians are Bavarians.

[Foggy]

Sept 15, 2017 1:20:22 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Sept 14, 2017 18:34:14 GMT Foggy said:

Both the President and the man who dresses up as the Kaiser for a living have made interventions in the past week that come across to me a bit like the Queen's "think very carefully" remark from before the Scottish referendum 3 years ago... yet I can't think what their comparable motivation would be.

The polls don't indicate that Strache will be poised for the Chancellorship or that Kurz – if anyone even has a reason to see him as somehow dangerous – will be given anything like an overwhelming mandate (i.e. an absolute majority).

I haven't seen that comedian (who is probably a LeftWinger).

Well, his version of a Kaiserhymne is sung to the tune of the Internationale, so make of that what you will.

Not all Austrians are Rhaetians, but in any case the type of theatre the Bavarians seem to appreciate is not necessarily the political sort. Elections to the Landtag over the border tend to be foregone conclusions!

[Georg Ebner]

Sept 15, 2017 17:29:43 GMT Foggy said:

Sept 15, 2017 1:20:22 GMT Georg Ebner said:

I haven't seen that comedian (who is probably a LeftWinger).

Well, his version of a Kaiserhymne is sung to the tune of the Internationale, so make of that what you will.

Not all Austrians are Rhaetians, but in any case the type of theatre the Bavarians seem to appreciate is not necessarily the political sort. Elections to the Landtag over the border tend to be foregone conclusions!

Landtage are indeed below the radar of the public - too powerless.
The old Raetia-Noricum-border was rather artificial and i cannot detect much impact, as the West&Mid-Tyrolians are - like their northern neighbours - well-known for theatralic SelfPresentation (the Viennese like to call them "fesch", not in the meaning of "pretty", but in that of "self-confident").

[Georg Ebner]

The SPÖ is hardly hit these weeks.
Now it was revealed, that their arrested exChiefCampaigner T.Silberstein and one of exPM Gusenbauer's campaigners were against EarlyElections, because PM Kern as a NewComer in politics is "naive", ChiefCampaigner Niedermühlbacher (sent from Vienna's mayor Häupl) "lacks any knowledge of campaigning", the SPÖ-ministers act too unsystematically aso.

[Foggy]

Sept 16, 2017 20:58:48 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Sept 15, 2017 17:29:43 GMT Foggy said:

Well, his version of a Kaiserhymne is sung to the tune of the Internationale, so make of that what you will.

Not all Austrians are Rhaetians, but in any case the type of theatre the Bavarians seem to appreciate is not necessarily the political sort. Elections to the Landtag over the border tend to be foregone conclusions!

Landtage are indeed below the radar of the public - too powerless.

In Austria, certainly (it is arguably not a proper federation), but I was referring to the Bavarian Landtag which most certainly does not fly under the radar!