maxque
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Post by maxque on Oct 21, 2021 21:39:21 GMT
For our more legal-tuned posters, here is the exact text of S80
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Post by maxque on Oct 16, 2021 11:17:49 GMT
Wasn't the process for by-elections changed at the last conference? The rule change which passed against NEC recommendations relates to "a by-election, snap election or any other Parliamentary selection where there is insufficient time for a normal selection process". The NEC could therefore argue that, as there was a lot of notice and time for a normal selection process, that normal selection process should go ahead. And for a Parliamentary byelection that means shortlisting by the NEC. Which would be shot down by any competent lawyer, as it is clearly "by-election", "snap election" or "any other Parliamentary selection where there is insufficient time for a normal selection process". The NEC should learn from their defeat (and the one in Hartlepool) and start respecting CLPs and members.
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Post by maxque on Oct 16, 2021 10:51:07 GMT
Keith Vaz is the chair of the CLP, so he'll have a part to play in the selection whether he runs or not. He could play a kingmaker role where he might endorse someone that might give them a good chance of winning the selection. Not necessarily, by-election selections are run by Regional Office, not the CLP. Obviously he could endorse someone, but that wouldn’t guarantee them making the shortlist. Wasn't the process for by-elections changed at the last conference?
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Post by maxque on Oct 16, 2021 10:09:10 GMT
Marine Le Pen visited ethnic housing estates yesterday which have been plagued by gang wars between rival ethnic minority drug dealing gangs. France is in real trouble on that front. Then she went to the copshop in Cavaillon. I think that this is her shedding part of her moderation campaign to take on Éric Zemmour, I don't think it'll work though. As we know, he isn't even a candidate, yet he's beating her in several polls already. It is no wonder the area is controlled by drug gangs, just by the look of that building, you can tell the State has given up on that area pretty much as soon it was built.
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Post by maxque on Oct 15, 2021 18:52:47 GMT
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Post by maxque on Oct 15, 2021 18:45:11 GMT
Well, they are certainly not winning it with Sinema, given most of the party would not vote for her. The Dems might not like Sinema (or Kelly) but they are not going to win a state wide race in AZ with a progressive…… The Democrats are fine with Kelly. The problem with Sinema is her opposition to the Biden policies and being even more right-wing than Manchin. This shouldn't be difficult to find a centrist willing to primary her.
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Post by maxque on Oct 15, 2021 18:04:57 GMT
I don’t know what the Dems are on if they think they would win AZ with Gallego….. Well, they are certainly not winning it with Sinema, given most of the party would not vote for her.
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Post by maxque on Oct 15, 2021 14:29:58 GMT
The selection of Claudia Webbe was very unpopukar in the constituency, I would not rush to read anything as a signiciant long-term movement from Labour to Conaervative from the last General Election. 2015 and 2017 saw swings to Labour, and the turnout was down over 4% in 2019. There was a by election in a ward in the constituency and it also had a massive swing towards the Tories. And, as it was pointed then, that ward has different demographics than most of the constituency.
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Post by maxque on Oct 12, 2021 22:04:53 GMT
John Yarmuth, Democratic Representative for Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District based around Louisville, has announced he will not run for a ninth term in 2022. He is the Chairman of House Budget Committee, potential factors in his decision include 1. He is 73. 2. He faces a primary challenge from his left. 3. He could be gerrymandered out because while Louisville has swung the the left it is surrounded by ruby red territory and can be cracked with ease. 4. He expects the Democrats to be in the minority after 2022. 3 isn't possible as current state law prohibit it and the governor is Democrat.
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Post by maxque on Oct 11, 2021 20:38:39 GMT
New proposed boundaries would move it there (removing Ainsdale in Sefton and adding North Meols, Rufford, Tarleton and Hesketh-with-Becconsall from West Lancashire district). Fair enough, but there are a few assumptions lined up there compared to becoming a councillor in Southport proper, which surely could have happened some time since 2015? She was a councillor in West Lancashire until 2019 (in Skems).
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Post by maxque on Oct 11, 2021 20:18:19 GMT
Liz Savage standing in North Meols show how seriously Labour are taking the campaign. The Labour candidate for Southport for the last three General Elections, she has seen the party vote quadruple and make them my favourites to gain the seat at the next GE. Why would she want to be a councillor in the South Ribble constituency if she wants to win Southport? New proposed boundaries would move it there (removing Ainsdale in Sefton and adding North Meols, Rufford, Tarleton and Hesketh-with-Becconsall from West Lancashire district).
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Post by maxque on Oct 11, 2021 1:55:42 GMT
Following a recount, the riding of Châteauguay—Lacolle has been held by the Liberals by 12 votes. So in the end not a single riding in Quebec changed hands. It's an interesting result, very much done as a bit of a punt but it paid off (it wasn't an automatic judicial recount, it was requested). Looking at the change in tallies, the Bloc vote only went down by 11 from the original tally but the Liberal vote went up by 287 (moving it from a Bloc win by 286 to the win by the Grits by 12). So it looks like there must have been a few Liberal bundles from across the precincts in one of the other parties tallies to make that much of a difference, alongside a few votes here and there going to and from the main protagonists. Compared to the other judicial recount done so far (also in Quebec, going from a Bloc win over the Tories by 92, to a Bloc win over the Tories by 83 with only small amounts of extra votes being added to both of their tallies) it's a big change. There is actually one last chance for a seat change in Quebec with Brome-Missisquoi having a judicial recount on Tuesday. It is almost next door to Châteauguay—Lacolle so possibly the current Liberal lead over the Bloc of 197 could be overturned going by what's just happened, but I'd say it's unlikely. There's also another judicial recount on Tuesday, in Davenport in Toronto, with the Grits leading the NDP by 76. If I remember well, one precinct reversed the NDP and Liberal results.
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Post by maxque on Oct 9, 2021 13:36:12 GMT
Due to the trauma of the Weimar era, minority government are frowned upon. Yes, everyone says that and everyone believes that. But it is a "legend" (=lie), like the one in my Austria, that the First Republic failed because Christ- & SocialDemocrats did not work together. Both were invented after 1945 to hide the for liberal democrats embarassing fact of a Nat.Bolsh.-majority in the final days - Weimar ended rather, because its fringes were not fragmented&instable enough! (Just as the CSR worked exactly due to its enormous fragmentation.) Note that I said "trauma of the Weimar era" without details for a reason.
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Post by maxque on Oct 8, 2021 22:07:31 GMT
Is there any reason why the SDP and the Greens alone cant form a minority Government the CDU would only have the FDP to form a Government far behind the SDP Green GovernmentADF and the left voting against such a Government as well as FDP and CDU most unlikely Due to the trauma of the Weimar era, minority government are frowned upon.
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Post by maxque on Oct 7, 2021 20:46:25 GMT
The current leadership isn't managing it well either. No external investigation should have been approved unless the Conservatives also agreed on an investigation in their islamophobia. The EHRC investigation wasn’t commissioned by the current leadership, and, if the Commission decides to investigate having received a complaint(s), the subject of the investigation has no choice and can’t dictate terms such as insisting on a corresponding investigation into Islamaphobia in the Conservative Party. The fact it decided to investigate Labour but rejected multiple complains about the Conservative Party despite evidence shows the EHRC is biaised and it should have been the only answer from Labour to the "report".
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Post by maxque on Oct 7, 2021 20:31:50 GMT
Clearly yes Say what you want about the AS crisis in Labour, I'm the first to say that Corbyn handled it appallingly and have said as such on this forum many times But anybody that genuinely believes Corbyn himself is an anti semite is acting in tremendously bad faith The current leadership isn't managing it well either. No external investigation should have been approved unless the Conservatives also agreed on an investigation in their islamophobia.
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Post by maxque on Sept 22, 2021 20:19:11 GMT
are the postal votes listed as counted on this page included in the figures elsewhere on the site and is there anybody tracking how postal votes differ from other votes in the same riding so far? They are added to the total on that website.
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Post by maxque on Sept 22, 2021 16:51:50 GMT
Does anyone know what happened in the end in Trois Rivieres, as it seems to have got removed from the listing after the BQ lead went down to 33. Is there a recount procedure and does anyone know how that would work? Of course I reckon really Trois Rivieres, if you translate it, ought to be a Lib Dem stronghold. We are still waiting on postal votes to be reported. www.elections.ca/enr/help/help_sta_e.htm
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Post by maxque on Sept 21, 2021 22:52:45 GMT
Presumably as well they're just going to be releasing the results of these ballots all at once for each constituency rather than update as they go? I think they update as they go.
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Post by maxque on Sept 21, 2021 22:08:40 GMT
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