Norwegian Parliamentary Election 2017

[thetop]

Sept 11, 2017 19:33:02 GMT @odo said:

Sept 11, 2017 19:18:09 GMT freefair said:

BONG! NRK exit poll- Government & supporting Parties- 85 seats
Opposition parties- 84. 
KrF and Liberals very close to the threshold If either has failed it will need a change of government, I think Conservative-Progress-Senter have a majority, Greens and Red both have under 3%, each only have 1 seat.

Centre can not ally with the most pro-centralising parties. 

I did wonder why Centre were assumed to be nailed on part of the left bloc.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Venstre are currently on a rounded score of 4%.  Squeaky bum time...

[Georg Ebner]

NRK switched with ~75% counted and Venstre at 3.9% to 85:84.

[Georg Ebner]

TV2 gives Venstre still 7 seats, totally 79:90.

[Khunanup]

Sept 11, 2017 20:34:33 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Venstre are currently on a rounded score of 4%.  Squeaky bum time...

Just up to 4.1% for the first time I've been following it...

88-81 currently.

[Khunanup]

With Venstre in mind, only just over 50% of Oslo is in.

[Deleted]

Labour 27.5
Centre 10.3
SV 6.0
Greens 3.2
Red 2.5

49.5% (89)

Conservatives 25.3
Progress 15.0
KrF 4.2
V 4.2

48.7% (80)

Others 1.8%

Wasted votes...

[mrpastelito]

Sept 11, 2017 21:50:50 GMT @odo said:

Labour 27.5
Centre 10.3
SV 6.0
Greens 3.2
Red 2.5

49.5% (89)

Conservatives 25.3
Progress 15.0
KrF 4.2
V 4.2

48.7% (80)

Others 1.8%

Wasted votes...

Looks like the Right have won the lottery. Unless KrF and V fall below the threshold.

[Deleted]

All the winners are on the "centre-left"..

Centre +8
Socialist Left +4
Red +1

Greens nc

Progress -1
Venstre -1
KrF -2
Høyre -3
Labour -6

[greenhert]

With almost 90% counted (opptalt):

The Greens have retained their seat in Oslo but were overtaken by the Reds (i.e. Rodt) in Oslo nonetheless. So disappointing an election this has been for them.
The Liberals will likely retain their levelling seats after all, just as Socialist Left did in 2013 (they got 4.1% in 2013)
The Reds have doubled their 2013 vote and gained a seat, but they expected better.
Labour have lost twice as many of their 2013 votes as the Conservatives overall-it was all going well for them until the actual election campaign itself. The Centre Party is the main beneficiary in rural counties; the Reds and Socialist Left in the towns and cities.
In some counties the Green vote has actually decreased slightly.

[Khunanup]

Crossover. Venstre 4.3%, KRF 4.2%. Still 14.5% to come in from Oslo and Venstre's vote is actually up (very slightly) there and is improving the more that's counted.

[thetop]

It looks as if the Red-Greens have lost out through inefficiency, with any Labour losses offset by coalition partners' gains but being poorly rewarded by the threshold. A 9 seat majority for the Right but a vote share actually trailing that of the Left's.

[Georg Ebner]

Sept 11, 2017 22:46:55 GMT thetop said:

It looks as if the Red-Greens have lost out through inefficiency, with any Labour losses offset by coalition partners' gains but being poorly rewarded by the threshold. A 9 seat majority for the Right but a vote share actually trailing that of the Left's.

And exactly this - that the winner will depend on the fate of the 4 small parties - had been predicted for days, if not weeks ...

[Devil Wincarnate]

Arguably the winner here is neither left nor right, even if they were counted with the left. That's a stonking success for the Centre Party.

[Deleted]

With 95.1% counted (as of this morning) the centre-left is 7,000 votes ahead of the centre-right. There is a commission looking at the election law (their proposal will take effect from 2025), and renewed debate about lowering the threshold.

[Deleted]

KrF will formally go into opposition (stop being a so-called "supporting party"), but they are unlikely to topple the government. The government will need support from both KrF and Venstre now where it used to be able to rely on just one of them.

[Deleted]

Some Venstre pols now toying with the idea of entering the government and demand to take over the Ministry of Integration from Listhaug. Hard to see Progress accept that...  Their board meet Tuesday at 4 p.m. to discuss the situation.

Meanwhile KrF says they prefer to replace Progress in government, but will otherwise be a constructive opposition and consider the issues on their own merit. They do not rule out toppling the government during the term.

[Deleted]

KrF had their worst election ever as a national party (= 1945 and onwards).

Best and worst for KrF. A party with very few average areas (in the west), otherwise its either strong or weak.

Best counties (Vest-Agder and adjacent parts of Aust-Agder and Rogaland are the Bible Belt in the SW):



Counties below 3%:



Not doing well in Northern Norway, Trøndelag, Greater Oslo and the East.

[Deleted]

Progress get 32.7% (+11.7) in Alta (capital of Finnmark), highest in the country. Labour lose 16.4% in Alta.

The four following municipalities are in Sylvi Listhaug's home turf in Møre og Romsdal (well, none of them in Romsdal).

Vanylven 32.3
Herøy 31.8
Hareid 31.8
Sula 30.1

Labour haven't supported extending a local health center to a fully equipped hospital, and apparently that is the main reason. Though likely also other things (defence policy, migration?). Progress gets 18.1% in Finnmark. The red north isn't nearly as red as it used to be.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Sept 12, 2017 7:23:58 GMT @odo said:

With 95.1% counted (as of this morning) the centre-left is 7,000 votes ahead of the centre-right. There is a commission looking at the election law (their proposal will take effect from 2025), and renewed debate about lowering the threshold.

I think that such an approach is somewhat curious. They want the benefits of being smaller, ideologically-purer outfits and then stress their identity as part of a larger bloc when it suits them.