Norwegian Parliamentary Election 2017

[Deleted]

Aftenposten on the likelihood of various government scenarios (in Norwegian, but should be easy to read with Google translate).

www.aftenposten.no/norge/politikk/i/4PyJ9/Hva-slags-regjering-kan-vi-fa-Her-er-de-ulike-alternativene

[Deleted]

Most newspapers had Gahr Støre and SV leader Audun Lysbakken as the winners of the NRK party leader debate on 14 August, though Gahr Støre was criticized for interrupting the others (politeness is important in Norway). Labour committed to rising taxes, KrF said no to further tax cuts, while Venstre basically embraced the entire economic agenda (privatizations and tax cuts) of the government. So a clear ideological split. Centre went tough on immigration and EU (hoping to cut into the Progress base). KrF and Progress went at each others throats on immigration/refugees.

The subsequent (14-18 August) Kantar TNS poll had:

Labour 28,4 (−1, 9)

Høyre 23,8 (+ 2,3)

Progress (- 1,0)

Centre 10,5 (- 2,1)

SV 6,4 (+ 2,8)

Christian Democrats (KrF) 5,3 (+ 1,4)

Red 3,8 (- 0,8)

Venstre 3,5 (- 0,9)

Greens 3,4 pst. (+ 0,3)

Others 2,2 (– 0,1)

(I can not be bothered to switch all those commas for periods, sorry)

[Deleted]

Current polling average with changes from ultimo July.

[yellowperil]

Aug 21, 2017 16:21:04 GMT @odo said:

(I can not be bothered to switch all those commas for periods, sorry)

Quite right too, Odo. Better things to do with life. We can all understand commas, honest

[Deleted]

In an attempt to attract tactical votes Venstre leader Trine Skei Grande now categorically rules out supporting Labour, and says they will back any centre-right (borgerlig) government over one led by Labour.

She repeat their usual line about preferring a Høyre, KrF, Venstre government to the current one, but since Progress has ruled out that combo this is merely "window dressing" (unless Progress collapse completely, but that is highly unlikely).

[Deleted]

Kantar TNS poll shows Progress gaining 2.7%, mainly in Western Norway (incl. Sørlandet). Centre regains a bit and are at 12.1%. Both KrF and Venstre below the threshold - KrF loses 2 points. Venstre-leader Trine Skei Grande would be their only MP on these numbers, KrF gets two. The Greens are in with 4.7, their best numbers since the municipal election.

Labour 27.9 (-0.5)
SV 5.5 (-0.9)
Centre 12.1 (+1.6)
Greens 4.7 (+1.3)
Red 3.1 (-0.7)

Høyre 23.3 (-0.5)
Progress 15.4 (+2.7)
KrF (Christian Democrats) 3.2 (-2.1)
Venstre 3.2 (-0.3)

Others 1.5 (-0.7):

Coastal Party 0.4
Pensioner Party 0.2
The Christians 0.2
Liberalists 0.2
Health Party 0.2

[Deleted]

This Respons poll from yesterday also has Progress on 15%+ and it has a razor thin centre-right majority of 85-84. Labour still refuse to ally with Greens, which have demanded a full stop for further oil and gas exploration to support a government. But it looks increasingly unlikely they can get a majority without the Greens. 

[Deleted]

InFact poll over preferred coalition partner among Labour voters (Socialist Left vs. Christian Democrats) shows a clear preference for working with Socialist Left. 

Socialist Left 60.9%  
Christian Democrats 17.3%
No preference 21.8%

Centre leader Trygve Slagsvold Vedum says he can't accept Labour's proposed tax hike of 15 billion, he only wants to raise taxes with 7.5-8 billion, primarily by raising taxes for the wealthy while cutting excises and duties (especially the diesel duty, which is hated in rural Norway). Speaking like a true populist. He promises lower taxes for everyone with an income below 700,000 (Labour promise lower taxes for those earning less than 600,000).

Immigration minister Sylvi Listhaug has underlined that Progress won't allow Centre to steal their thunder on immigration by proposing that Norway leaves the ECHR in order to be allowed to kick out criminal refugees and create closed detention centers for asylum seekers without genuine identity papers and rejected asylum seekers until they can be sent out. Everyone else has refused this.

[neilm]

Telemark should have a Heroes Party.

[greenhert]

(Belated) guide to this election: greensocialistalan.blogspot.co.uk/2017/08/alans-green-thoughts-guide-to-norwegian.html

[Devil Wincarnate]

Aug 27, 2017 10:19:28 GMT neilm said:

Telemark should have a Heroes Party.

And in terms of religion, it should join the Kirk.

I'll get my heavy water.

[Deleted]

Debate between Solberg and Gahr Støre live: www.nrk.no/nyheter/valg-2017-1.12257515

Høyre are bigger than Labour in new Norstat poll btw 

[karlsen]

Shocking poll from NRK. The last time the Conservatives beat Labour was in 1924, when the Labour movement was split in three between Labour, the Communists and the Social Democrats. The Conservatives almost never beat Labour in polls either. I can remeber it happening one or two times at most. More worrying for Labour, they always go up in the polls during the election campaign, now the opposite is happening.

[Deleted]

If Labour loses this it will be one of the biggest failures in post-war Nordic politics. Its such a weak and inept government... should have been piece of cake.

Problems and mistakes:

- Labour have attacked the government for not combating unemployment, but then the economy changed and voters find it irrelevant
- flirting with KrF, which is unpopular among progressives/leftists (abort, divorce, private schools, unemployment benefits)
- trying to move left by increasing taxes, which has lost centrist voters
- lack of clear main issues - Labour claim its a "direction election" (which way should Norway go in the future?), a narrative that has flopped
- lack of identification. Gahr Støre comes from a bourgeois family in Oslo (Stoltenberg was from a privileged background as well, but at least a Labour family)
- he is often unclear and longwinded, and comes off as disingenous when he tries to be "sassy" and direct
- builders working "black" (without paying taxes) on Gahr Støre's country house - says he didn't know 
- they are now caught in a negative spiral where Gahr Støre uses half his time to talk about why they are doing badly

[Devil Wincarnate]

Aug 29, 2017 20:21:52 GMT @odo said:

Debate between Solberg and Gahr Støre live: www.nrk.no/nyheter/valg-2017-1.12257515

Høyre are bigger than Labour in new Norstat poll btw 

Labour have clearly not recovered from attempting to canvass me and my wife.  It's destroyed their campaign and I take full credit if it turns out to be true 

[Devil Wincarnate]

22nd October 2014 was the last time any poll showed Hoyre higher than Labour (a Sentio poll).

[karlsen]

I think Støres biggest mistake was the flirtation with Venstre and KrF. It implied that the present government wasn't too bad, Venstre and KrF having supported them for four years. This ment bleeding supporters to the right who felt it was ok to support the present direction of the country, and didn't want to risk giving SV, Rødt and MDG any influence. It also ment bleeding support to the left (SV,Rødt, MDG) wich felt the opposite.

[Deleted]

Aug 29, 2017 21:25:24 GMT karlsen said:

I think Støres biggest mistake was the flirtation with Venstre and KrF. It implied that the present government wasn't too bad, Venstre and KrF having supported them for four years. This ment bleeding supporters to the right who felt it was ok to support the present direction of the country, and didn't want to risk giving SV, Rødt and MDG any influence. It also ment bleeding support to the left (SV,Rødt, MDG) wich felt the opposite.

Did he ever actually flirt with Venstre? Seems it was just KrF. 

[karlsen]

He said he was ready for talks with Venstre after the election, but was quickly shut down by the unions. www.dagbladet.no/nyheter/lo-raser-mot-stores-venstre-frieri--helt-uspiselig/68542981

[karlsen]

Sylvi Listhaug may be managing to create the first diplomaitic crisis between Norway and Sweden since the stand-off bestween Gustaf VI Adolf and Haakon VII. As the minister of integration she was goining on a "fact finding mission" to Rinkby, a suburb of Stockholm. Just houers before meeting the Swedish migration minister the Swedes called off the meeting. After warnings from Listhaugs own government! www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/samhalle/a/zm4p9/avslojar-norge-varnade-for-ministerbesoket