Australian elections (state/territory/local/by elections)

[timrollpickering]

The New South Wales Legislative Council result is in. The 21 seats up went as follows:

Coalition 8
Labor 7
Greens 2
One Nation 2
Shooters, Fishers & Farmers 1
Animal Justice 1

The Christian Democrats have failed to win a seat for the first time in forty years.

Animal Justice overtook both the Christian Democrats and the Liberal Democrats on transfers. The figures suggest voters for left-wing parties are better at pooling their vote on this system than the right-wing parties - high exhaustion rates by the Shooters and Lib Dems meant the Christian Democrats were trailing Animal Justice by 8,000.

[redvers]

Bit of a random question, but can anyone explain to me why Queensland consistently elects conservative MPs federally (the Coalition and the KAP got over 75% of the seats last year, for example) yet has had a Labor state government for all but 5 of the last 31 years?

[greenhert]

Two by-elections were held in the state of Queensland on 28 March despite the COVID-19 pandemic; they were both holds for the Labor and Liberal Parties respectively.

[timrollpickering]

Alongside the council elections. Brisbane has a full party contest and when I last looked both the mayoralty and every single ward were held by the incumbents.

[pragmaticidealist]

It appears that there is going to be a federal by-election in Eden-Monaro, as Labor's Mike Kelly has announced his resignation on health grounds (not Coronavirus-related, but stemming from his military career). The division is one of the most famous, owing to its pre-2016 bellwether status.

[timmullen1]

Apr 30, 2020 9:39:07 GMT pragmaticidealist said:

It appears that there is going to be a federal by-election in Eden-Monaro, as Labor's Mike Kelly has announced his resignation on health grounds (not Coronavirus-related, but stemming from his military career). The division is one of the most famous, owing to its pre-2016 bellwether status.

According to the ABC it’s damage to his renal system caused by dehydration during his tours in Iraq, Somalia and East Timor, and he’s had 10 surgical procedures in the last six months.

Antony Green’s up with an early by-election preview: www.abc.net.au/news/elections/eden-monaro-by-election-2020/?pfmredir=sm

(Just a minor quibble but I think this should be in the Federal elections thread).

[iain]

Nominations have closed for the Eden Monaro by-election. There have been a couple of bits of bad news for Liberal candidate Fiona Kotvojs - she has drawn the last spot on the ballot paper, and the Shooters, Fishers & Farmers party have decided to preference Labor over the Liberals.

[Deleted]

Jun 10, 2020 12:16:58 GMT iain said:

Nominations have closed for the Eden Monaro by-election. There have been a couple of bits of bad news for Liberal candidate Fiona Kotvojs - she has drawn the last spot on the ballot paper, and the Shooters, Fishers & Farmers party have decided to preference Labor over the Liberals.

That's a bit of a surprise isn't it?

[timmullen1]

Jun 10, 2020 12:21:16 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Jun 10, 2020 12:16:58 GMT iain said:

Nominations have closed for the Eden Monaro by-election. There have been a couple of bits of bad news for Liberal candidate Fiona Kotvojs - she has drawn the last spot on the ballot paper, and the Shooters, Fishers & Farmers party have decided to preference Labor over the Liberals.

That's a bit of a surprise isn't it?

It’s actually not quite correct; the SFF haven’t actually preferenced anybody, they have preferenced away from the Coalition, as their website says: “Our decision to recommend a vote away from the Liberal National Government has been made a lot easier given the fact that we have pleaded with both State and Federal Governments to increase back burning and give Regional landowners a greater say over their land. Just like everything with the Liberal Nationals these days they have sat on this for years, promised change, and done nothing.”

We are fighting for the forgotten people this election while they fight amongst themselves.

In the end, as long as you vote 1 for SFF and complete the rest of the ticket in the order that you wish, your vote will count. Remember, to make a formal vote on a House of Representatives ballot paper, you need to number every box with a series of consecutive numbers according to your preference.

Their candidate has said "But we are suggesting people 'vote away' from the Coalition, after the poor showing they've had on bushfires, the mixed messaging on COVID-19 and the poor funding that's gone into the drought,"

In the end it may not be overly significant, Antony Green reckons top spot on the ballot paper adds a maximum of 0.5% to the preference vote, and the ALP and Liberals are in relatively the same slots they were in at last year’s General Election so people will be used to having to look for them.

[froome]

Jun 10, 2020 12:16:58 GMT iain said:

Nominations have closed for the Eden Monaro by-election. There have been a couple of bits of bad news for Liberal candidate Fiona Kotvojs - she has drawn the last spot on the ballot paper, and the Shooters, Fishers & Farmers party have decided to preference Labor over the Liberals.

Does this mean that lots are drawn to determine position on the ballot paper?

That would be a good way to defeat the alphabetisation that happens here.

[timrollpickering]

It was a way to minimise the effect of the donkey vote. Tasmania and the ACT have taken this further with "Robson Rotation" whereby there are many different versions of the ballot paper produced with the order of candidates within parties randomised and, IIRC, this is also applied to the single member Tasmania upper house. However preferencing is semi-optional so parties are at less risk of losing votes to informal.

ISTR there have been studies here about whether ballot paper order makes a noticeable difference but they tend to be focused on Westminster elections so don't delve too deeply into the multi-member council effect and consequently conclude the benefits of being able to find the candidate in a clear order overwhelm any alphabetical effect.

[timmullen1]

Jun 10, 2020 13:13:29 GMT froome said:

Jun 10, 2020 12:16:58 GMT iain said:

Nominations have closed for the Eden Monaro by-election. There have been a couple of bits of bad news for Liberal candidate Fiona Kotvojs - she has drawn the last spot on the ballot paper, and the Shooters, Fishers & Farmers party have decided to preference Labor over the Liberals.

Does this mean that lots are drawn to determine position on the ballot paper?

That would be a good way to defeat the alphabetisation that happens here.

Yes it does. I don’t know if this was slightly different because of coronavirus, but usually once nominations close the candidates meet in a room hired by the Australian Election Commission and draw lots for their spot on the ballot paper.

[froome]

Jun 10, 2020 13:17:43 GMT timrollpickering said:

It was a way to minimise the effect of the donkey vote. Tasmania and the ACT have taken this further with "Robson Rotation" whereby there are many different versions of the ballot paper produced with the order of candidates within parties randomised and, IIRC, this is also applied to the single member Tasmania upper house. However preferencing is semi-optional so parties are at less risk of losing votes to informal.

ISTR there have been studies here about whether ballot paper order makes a noticeable difference but they tend to be focused on Westminster elections so don't delve too deeply into the multi-member council effect and consequently conclude the benefits of being able to find the candidate in a clear order overwhelm any alphabetical effect.

Well that would certainly solve the alphabetisation effect, but must make counting incredibly difficult if not almost impossible.

[pragmaticidealist]

Eden-Monaro by-election is tomorrow. Polls (which are usually dodgy at a constituency level just about anywhere) have Labor slightly ahead. As you might expect there is talk that a loss could put Albanese's leadership in crisis.

[timmullen1]

Jul 3, 2020 18:04:33 GMT pragmaticidealist said:

Eden-Monaro by-election is tomorrow. Polls (which are usually dodgy at a constituency level just about anywhere) have Labor slightly ahead. As you might expect there is talk that a loss could put Albanese's leadership in crisis.

The Poll Bludger is reporting on a Nationals internal that has their preferences delivering the electorate for the Liberals, whilst one of the only public polls, for the Australian Institute has it at exactly 50/50 if preferences flow as they did last year.

There’s a by-election special on the ABC, which should be viewable through their YouTube channel from 6.30pm local time, which if my maths are correct (so double check) is 9.30am here, or a digital service on The Polling Bludger’s site.

[timmullen1]

Shenanigans in Eden-Monaro:

www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-03/afp-charges-man-eden-monaro-kristy-mcbain-scam-emails-byelection/12420516

[iain]

Early numbers show a small 2PP swing to Labor, but nothing yet in from Queanbeyan.

[iain]

All the on-the-day polling places have now reported their first preference results, and 64/71 have reported their 2PP. There is a sizeable swing from Labor and the Greens to the Shooters and others on first preferences, but virtually no change on 2PP.

However, we have not yet had any pre-poll votes counted, which will make up around half the votes.

[timmullen1]

Kristina Keneally sounding pretty pessimistic about Labor’s chances with the pre polls and postals as the ABC went off to their regular news coverage.

[iain]

Jul 4, 2020 11:09:49 GMT timmullen1 said:

Kristina Keneally sounding pretty pessimistic about Labor’s chances with the pre polls and postals as the ABC went off to their regular news coverage.

She has been very pessimistic all evening.

However, the first 2PP pre-poll has come in from Merimbula, and extended Labor’s lead. In 2019 this voting centre voted 56% Liberal, while the on-the-day vote split pretty evenly between the parties.

Labor definitely look to have the edge, but we need to wait for the Queanbeyan pre-poll to be sure.