timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 4, 2020 12:15:50 GMT
Kristina Keneally sounding pretty pessimistic about Labor’s chances with the pre polls and postals as the ABC went off to their regular news coverage. She has been very pessimistic all evening. However, the first 2PP pre-poll has come in from Merimbula, and extended Labor’s lead. In 2019 this voting centre voted 56% Liberal, while the on-the-day vote split pretty evenly between the parties. Labor definitely look to have the edge, but we need to wait for the Queanbeyan pre-poll to be sure. Agreed; it’s looking pretty much a carbon copy of Mike Kelly’s result last year. One point, I’ve had to duck out of the ABC coverage so I don’t know if they’ve mentioned it, but Labor’s primary vote is higher than across NSW at the General Election last year and had they matched it Shorten would probably now be in The Lodge. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,430
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Post by iain on Jul 4, 2020 14:05:24 GMT
I think we can now pretty safely say that Labor have retained Eden-Monaro. The Queanbeyan booths reduced Labor’s projected 2PP vote to just 50.67%, but with just three booths remaining (Jindabyne pre-poll, Narooma pre-poll and the blind / limited vision pre-poll which normally contains about 2 votes) plus postals, it doesn’t look like there will be enough left for the Liberal to fight back.
Postals normally trend hard to the Liberals in Australia, but Labor have been forced to actually run a PV campaign this time, and the first batch have only favoured the Liberals by 70 votes (2,464 to 2,394).
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,430
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Post by iain on Jul 4, 2020 14:26:18 GMT
And Antony Green has called it for Labor
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 4, 2020 14:53:46 GMT
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Post by greenhert on Jul 4, 2020 16:41:45 GMT
Annoyingly though the Nationals have beaten the Greens on first preferences. Tactical voting was also hard on the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party.
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 4, 2020 19:35:32 GMT
Annoyingly though the Nationals have beaten the Greens on first preferences. Tactical voting was also hard on the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party. I suspect the Greens leadership travails, with di Natale’s sudden and unexpected resignation from the leadership and the Senate may have hurt them. The Nationals seem to have started to get their act together in the electorate, and their candidate was arguably the highest profile of the major parties being a councillor in the biggest population centre. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,430
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Post by iain on Jul 4, 2020 21:23:22 GMT
Annoyingly though the Nationals have beaten the Greens on first preferences. Tactical voting was also hard on the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party. I suspect the Greens leadership travails, with di Natale’s sudden and unexpected resignation from the leadership and the Senate may have hurt them. The Nationals seem to have started to get their act together in the electorate, and their candidate was arguably the highest profile of the major parties being a councillor in the biggest population centre. Though it should be noted that the Nationals also had a very disappointing result. As little time ago as yesterday, John Barilaro (NSW Nationals leader, has his seat in Monaro) was talking about standing in the next federal election, thinking he had a realistic chance of victory. |
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 4, 2020 21:36:03 GMT
I suspect the Greens leadership travails, with di Natale’s sudden and unexpected resignation from the leadership and the Senate may have hurt them. The Nationals seem to have started to get their act together in the electorate, and their candidate was arguably the highest profile of the major parties being a councillor in the biggest population centre. Though it should be noted that the Nationals also had a very disappointing result. As little time ago as yesterday, John Barilaro (NSW Nationals leader, has his seat in Monaro) was talking about standing in the next federal election, thinking he had a realistic chance of victory. From watching the ABC coverage, including an interview with the President of the Nationals, there appears to be a considerable disconnect between Mr Barilaro’s own sense of self importance and reality. His admission that he second preferenced Mike Kelly last year probably hasn’t helped his chances of getting their pre-selection for the next General Election, although according to Twitter he was the studio guest on their Sky News and he didn’t rule out running as an independent if he didn’t get the Nats pre-selection. |
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nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
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Post by nelson on Jul 5, 2020 11:59:41 GMT
When do we get the final results?
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Jul 5, 2020 12:26:00 GMT
When do we get the final results? Roughly around the year 2265 on past form. |
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 5, 2020 13:08:44 GMT
When do we get the final results? Roughly around the year 2265 on past form. At the very latest 17 July, which is the last date for receipt of postal votes, but if at some point during that time the gap between Labor and the Liberals is greater than the outstanding number of postal votes to be counted the AEC will declare a winner. Right now the Libs need to win around 60% of the outstanding postals. UPDATE: As we know Labor won the seat, keeping the swing to Liberals to less than 0.5%. Despite finishing third on preferences, 2CP knocked the Nationals into fifth place behind the Greens and Shooters, Fishers, Farmers (SFF) - perhaps surprisingly 56.6% of SFF transfers went to Labor, clearly the difference between a Labor retain and a Liberal gain. |
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 10, 2020 10:40:18 GMT
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Post by greenchristian on Aug 10, 2020 13:58:26 GMT
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 10, 2020 14:36:24 GMT
Apparently he’s a whip maker by profession and does exhibitions at local country fayres. We don’t mention his relationship with a 15 year old girl though....🤔 |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,008
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Post by Khunanup on Aug 10, 2020 21:31:42 GMT
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,800
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Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 21, 2020 12:58:35 GMT
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,430
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Post by iain on Aug 22, 2020 10:44:03 GMT
Terry Mills, the former CLP Chief Minister turner leader of the Territory Alliance looks to have lost his seat of Blain (in Alice Springs).
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,430
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Post by iain on Aug 22, 2020 11:42:35 GMT
Antony Green has projected that Labor will once again form government.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,800
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Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 22, 2020 12:47:00 GMT
Labor will get at least 12/25 seats (2 Ind.), probably even a majority.
The Territorial Alliance have lost at least 2 of their 3 MPs, meaning, that they are history.
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Aug 22, 2020 15:29:38 GMT
According to wikipedia, today is polling day but the result is not declared until September 7th. How does that work? Is it like the US where an unofficial result will be known unless it is very close, but the official elections board meeting to confirm the result doesn't meet until September?
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