Australian elections (state/territory/local/by elections)

[Davıd Boothroyd]

The mass of votes cast on the day at polling stations are counted overnight (the first prefs and the presumed two party preferred outcome). But postal votes and others may come in later and be added. Also the two-party preferred outcome only works if the right two parties are counted and sometimes it does not work out that way.

So this result is unofficial; the actual declaration is not for a fortnight. I think the territorial electoral commission is formally in charge of it.

[robert1]

ntec.nt.gov.au/elections/2020-territory-election/results

Australian Electoral Commission has an excellent website and the above gives the NT figures. The timing of updates is key. Postal votes are counted as long as they were posted (from wherever) on or before election day.

[timmullen1]

Antony Green now has Labor forming majority government in the NT, currently on 13 seats, and leading in three more.

[timmullen1]

Final results in the Northern Territory election have been certified by the NT Electoral Commission as today was the last day for receipt of postal votes. Labor have retained their majority with 14 seats, the Country Liberal Party has 8, the Territory Alliance clung on to one seat, and there are two Independents. Four seats weren’t settled until the final postals were added: Labor held Blain by 13, the CLP won Barkley by 7 (after trailing for the last week), Namatjira by 22 and the Territory Alliance held Araluen by 43 after a big last batch of postals benefited them by 22. Final figures for every electorate are here: ntec.nt.gov.au/elections/2020-territory-election/results

[markgoodair]

ACT elections take place this Saturday.

[Foggy]

Oct 15, 2020 15:42:25 GMT markgoodair said:

ACT elections take place this Saturday.

If a quarter of a million Aussies cast their vote and nobody back in the motherland notices, does it still count?

Queensland at the end of the month ought to hold more interest, although a change of territorial government in Canberra cannot be ruled out.

[timmullen1]

Antony Green’s previews of the ACT election, firstly focusing on the voting used - mostly electronic pre-polls so we may get almost instant results as voting ends, and secondly the key seats.

www.abc.net.au/news/elections/act/2020/guide/preview

www.abc.net.au/news/elections/act/2020/guide/key-seats

[froome]

Oct 16, 2020 0:35:18 GMT Foggy said:

Oct 15, 2020 15:42:25 GMT markgoodair said:

ACT elections take place this Saturday.

If a quarter of a million Aussies cast their vote and nobody back in the motherland notices, does it still count?

Queensland at the end of the month ought to hold more interest, although a change of territorial government in Canberra cannot be ruled out.

Well, a few of those quarter of a million are my brother's family, so I for one am interested. And as the Green vote is likely to determine which of the two main parties takes power, I will be doubly interested.

Antony Green's analysis is very helpful, and am pleased to see that their seat is one that the Greens won one of the representatives in last time out.

[Foggy]

Oct 16, 2020 8:53:28 GMT froome said:

Oct 16, 2020 0:35:18 GMT Foggy said:

If a quarter of a million Aussies cast their vote and nobody back in the motherland notices, does it still count?

Queensland at the end of the month ought to hold more interest, although a change of territorial government in Canberra cannot be ruled out.

Well, a few of those quarter of a million are my brother's family, so I for one am interested. And as the Green vote is likely to determine which of the two main parties takes power, I will be doubly interested.

Antony Green's analysis is very helpful, and am pleased to see that their seat is one that the Greens won one of the representatives in last time out.

There are only 5 constituencies for 25 seats in the Legislative Assembly (and in the Tasmanian lower house, come to think of it), so Green was inevitably going to go through them all rather than just looking at key races. Back when there were only three constituencies, the Greens could win a seat in all of them on a good night. If they keep the balance of power, then getting a Liberal Chief Minister sworn in looks a difficult task.

[timmullen1]

Oct 17, 2020 3:56:56 GMT Foggy said:

Oct 16, 2020 8:53:28 GMT froome said:

Well, a few of those quarter of a million are my brother's family, so I for one am interested. And as the Green vote is likely to determine which of the two main parties takes power, I will be doubly interested.

Antony Green's analysis is very helpful, and am pleased to see that their seat is one that the Greens won one of the representatives in last time out.

There are only 5 constituencies for 25 seats in the Legislative Assembly (and in the Tasmanian lower house, come to think of it), so Green was inevitably going to go through them all rather than just looking at key races. Back when there were only three constituencies, the Greens could win a seat in all of them on a good night. If they keep the balance of power, then getting a Liberal Chief Minister sworn in looks a difficult task.

It is his standard practice to cover each electorate in much the same way as he has done for ACT, with a dedicated page for each.

[Foggy]

Oct 17, 2020 4:31:49 GMT timmullen1 said:

Oct 17, 2020 3:56:56 GMT Foggy said:

There are only 5 constituencies for 25 seats in the Legislative Assembly (and in the Tasmanian lower house, come to think of it), so Green was inevitably going to go through them all rather than just looking at key races. Back when there were only three constituencies, the Greens could win a seat in all of them on a good night. If they keep the balance of power, then getting a Liberal Chief Minister sworn in looks a difficult task.

It is his standard practice to cover each electorate in much the same way as he has done for ACT, with a dedicated page for each.

True enough, and it's great that he provides such a comprehensive service, but in Queensland in a couple of weeks there will be 93 constituencies to follow, so it's helpful to be able to pick out the main races to watch in that type of election. 

I suppose this gives us some guidance, but Australian states and territories seem to undergo very frequent boundary changes, so something produced straight after the last election might not be entirely up to date or accurate.

[yellowperil]

Oct 16, 2020 4:01:19 GMT timmullen1 said:

Antony Green’s previews of the ACT election, firstly focusing on the voting used - mostly electronic pre-polls so we may get almost instant results as voting ends, and secondly the key seats.

www.abc.net.au/news/elections/act/2020/guide/preview

www.abc.net.au/news/elections/act/2020/guide/key-seats

I have never shown much interest in Aussie elections, but in the present circumstances I'll go anywhere to get my psephological fix, and actually these repay the effort.  I really am quite interested in the open list system they are using, and get the impression it works pretty well at balancing the needs of political parties, individual candidates and the general electorate.  Of course it's confusing getting Green to assess the chances of the Greens doing well, but that's the sort of confusion I am well used to in my own parliamentary constituency of Ashford.

[timmullen1]

Liberals have just conceded the ACT election to Labor.

[Foggy]

A sixth term in the capital for the ALP. Their vote held steady whilst the Liberal share actually went down. Bit of a mini-surge for the Greens, but it might not result in extra seats. According to ABC, three are still in doubt and they are favoured to snatch two of those.

With regard to the point yellowperil was making, one Labor incumbent still managed to lose their seat, and a Liberal incumbent also lost in a constituency where their party won the same number of seats as last time. A negative personal vote can certainly have consequences under the system employed in Canberra, it seems.

[andrewteale]

Oct 17, 2020 8:07:17 GMT yellowperil said:

Oct 16, 2020 4:01:19 GMT timmullen1 said:

Antony Green’s previews of the ACT election, firstly focusing on the voting used - mostly electronic pre-polls so we may get almost instant results as voting ends, and secondly the key seats.

www.abc.net.au/news/elections/act/2020/guide/preview

www.abc.net.au/news/elections/act/2020/guide/key-seats

I have never shown much interest in Aussie elections, but in the present circumstances I'll go anywhere to get my psephological fix, and actually these repay the effort.  I really am quite interested in the open list system they are using, and get the impression it works pretty well at balancing the needs of political parties, individual candidates and the general electorate.  Of course it's confusing getting Green to assess the chances of the Greens doing well, but that's the sort of confusion I am well used to in my own parliamentary constituency of Ashford.

It looks like open list, but it's a fairly standard STV implementation with a couple of tweaks to the ballot paper: the candidates are grouped by party (which I personally think is a good idea for a multi-member election), and their order varies from ballot paper to ballot paper so that nobody is consistently at the top of each party's list. ACT uses a countback system for filling casual vacancies, which encourages parties to field more candidates.

[Tony Otim]

So with 2 seats left to confirm, it's

Lab 10
Lib 8
Grn 5

The remaining 2 seats are Lab vs Grn and Lab vs Lib, with Lab favoured in both, so they will probably finish level on 12 with the Liberals losing 3 and Greens gaining 3.

[timmullen1]

Final ACT figures:

Labor 10
Liberal 9
Greens 6

By electorate:

Brindabella:

Re-elected - Joy Burch, (Labor); Mick Gentleman (Labor); Mark Parton (Liberal); Nicole Lawder (Liberal)

Elected - Jonathan Davis (Greens)

Defeated - Andrew Wall (incumbent Liberal)


Ginninderra:

Re-elected - Yvette Berry (Labor); Tara Cheyne (Labor); Elizabeth Kikkert (Liberal)

Elected - Jo Clay (Greens); Peter Cain (Liberal)

Defeated - Gordon Ramsay (incumbent Labor)

Retiring - Vicki Dunne (incumbent Liberal)


Kurrajong:

Re-elected: Andrew Barr (Labor); Shane Rattenbury (Greens); Elizabeth Lee (Liberal); Rachel Stephen-Smith (Labor)

Elected - Rebecca Vassarotti (Greens)

Defeated - Candice Burch (incumbent Liberal)


Murrumbidgee:

Re-elected - Jeremy Hanson (Liberal); Chris Steel (Labor); Giulia Jones (Liberal)

Elected - Marissa Paterson (Labor); Emma Davidson (Greens)

Defeated - Bec Coady (incumbent Labor)

Retiring - Caroline Le Couteur (Greens)


Yerrabi:

Re-elected - Andrew Coe (Liberal); Michael Pettersson (Labor); Suzanne Orr (Labor)

Elected - Leanne Castley (Liberal); Andrew Braddock (Greens)

Defeated - James Milligan (incumbent Liberal); Deepak-Raj Gupta (incumbent Labor)

[pragmaticidealist]

Queensland state election tomorrow. Polls suggest another close one.

[iain]

A hung parliament looks very possible.

[timmullen1]

Oct 30, 2020 13:35:11 GMT iain said:

A hung parliament looks very possible.

The last Newspoll published overnight shows a swing to Labor, and a 4% lead over the LNP. There’s also an increased Greens primary vote showing, which, on transfers, benefits Labor. One unknown, 75% of the expected votes have already been cast.