Australian elections (state/territory/local/by elections)

[Deleted]

Coalition is getting a shellacking - Antony Green has called the election for Labor already.

[markgoodair]

At the moment Labor have 55 seats to the coalitions 18.

[finsobruce]

Who are Fiona Patten's Reason party??

[Foggy]

Nov 24, 2018 9:20:46 GMT finsobruce said:

Who are Fiona Patten's Reason party??

The group formerly known as the Sex Party. They're obviously trying to be taken a bit more seriously these days.

[finsobruce]

Nov 24, 2018 9:30:32 GMT Foggy said:

Nov 24, 2018 9:20:46 GMT finsobruce said:

Who are Fiona Patten's Reason party??

The group formerly known as the Sex Party. They're obviously trying to be taken a bit more seriously these days.

If they think Reason is going to prove more popular than sex they may be in for a disappointment.

[pragmaticidealist]

Big swings in Eastern Melbourne have given Labor the landslide. 61 seats for an overall.majority of 34 is ABC's current prediction. The overall 2PP vote looks set to be in the region of 57/43 by my calculations.

[Arthur Figgis]

Nov 24, 2018 9:30:32 GMT Foggy said:

Nov 24, 2018 9:20:46 GMT finsobruce said:

Who are Fiona Patten's Reason party??

The group formerly known as the Sex Party. They're obviously trying to be taken a bit more seriously these days.

They got married.

[greenhert]

Here is my analysis: alansgreenthoughts.blogspot.com/2018/11/victoria-state-election-2018-andrews.html

There are still 8 lower house seats officially in doubt....

[Foggy]

The 'preference whisperers' appear to have successfully practised the dark arts in the upper house again, based on early estimates. The Greens are on course for only 1 seat (down from 5 in 2014) and the crossbench – potentially including 'Transport Matters' and the 'Aussie Battlers Party' – is set to double in size from 5 to 10 MLCs. The further twist is that the 4 small parties that won seats 4 years ago (Shooters & Fishers, Democratic Labor, Reason Party, Local Jobs) all look like they'll lose representation this time.

Of course this being Australia, there are still about 25% of votes to be counted, and the upper house projections make the assumption that nobody will have voted 'below the line' which isn't actually the case.

[timmullen1]

Apologies if this is the wrong thread but I’ve lost (am too tired) the Federal thread. However Mr Morrison’s minority government has it seems become even more minority:

[greenhert]

It looks like Tim Read may gain the Brunswick electorate for the Greens after all in the end-he is now narrowly ahead on the two candidate preferred vote: www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/guide/brun/

[timrollpickering]

Nov 25, 2018 23:51:57 GMT Foggy said:

The 'preference whisperers' appear to have successfully practised the dark arts in the upper house again, based on early estimates. The Greens are on course for only 1 seat (down from 5 in 2014) and the crossbench – potentially including 'Transport Matters' and the 'Aussie Battlers Party' – is set to double in size from 5 to 10 MLCs. The further twist is that the 4 small parties that won seats 4 years ago (Shooters & Fishers, Democratic Labor, Reason Party, Local Jobs) all look like they'll lose representation this time.

Of course this being Australia, there are still about 25% of votes to be counted, and the upper house projections make the assumption that nobody will have voted 'below the line' which isn't actually the case.

Below the line voting in Victoria only requires five preferences to be formal so there isn't the hard choice there was in the Senate (which perhaps limits the arguments for scrapping it) but ISTR most of these tend to wind up just voting for a party anyway so the deals may not come undone.

[Foggy]

Indeed. The current upper house system in Victoria only dates back to 2004, which may explain why there is more reluctance to tinker with it there, but the procedure for voting below the line is not as bad as the old method used for the Senate. The latest projection (with alomst 40% of the votes still to count, mind) indicates that the Shooters, Fishers & Farmers party will hold onto a seat in the Eastern region after all.

The Greens are shown as very likely to win Prahran in the lower house based on an Electoral Commission estimate, but that'll actually probably go to Labor unless preferences break very favourably.

[timmullen1]

Nov 27, 2018 20:37:50 GMT Foggy said:

Indeed. The current upper house system in Victoria only dates back to 2004, which may explain why there is more reluctance to tinker with it there, but the procedure for voting below the line is not as bad as the old method used for the Senate. The latest projection (with alomst 40% of the votes still to count, mind) indicates that the Shooters, Fishers & Farmers party will hold onto a seat in the Eastern region after all.

The Greens are shown as very likely to win Prahran in the lower house based on an Electoral Commission estimate, but that'll actually probably go to Labor unless preferences break very favourably.

I wouldn’t bet on the Greens in Prahran, currently on First Preferences they’re in third (albeit very narrowly). It’ll probably take every single vote, so a week or more for postals, to sort the top two out. Whoever of Labor or Greens makes the second spot will win the electorate.

[Foggy]

The latest projection for the lower house with 85% of the votes counted has the ALP on 56 seats, Liberals & Nationals on 26, the Greens on 3 and 3 independent MPs.

Fiona Patten is now expected to retain her seat in the Legislative Council in north Melbourne, but in undeveloped Australia, there are still only 41% of the votes counted there! That result would nonetheless leave 5-7 seats in the upper house essentially being won by randoms.

[markgoodair]

The Greens have beaten Labor to take the seat of Brunswick.

[timmullen1]

Dec 1, 2018 9:11:19 GMT markgoodair said:

The Greens have beaten Labor to take the seat of Brunswick.

But have lost Northcote back to Labor.

[greenhert]

Dec 1, 2018 9:25:12 GMT timmullen1 said:

Dec 1, 2018 9:11:19 GMT markgoodair said:

The Greens have beaten Labor to take the seat of Brunswick.

But have lost Northcote back to Labor.

Based on the 2014 election results that still gives a 4.4% swing to the Greens in terms of the two candidate preferred vote.

[timmullen1]

Dec 1, 2018 21:28:12 GMT greenhert said:

Dec 1, 2018 9:25:12 GMT timmullen1 said:

But have lost Northcote back to Labor.

Based on the 2014 election results that still gives a 4.4% swing to the Greens in terms of the two candidate preferred vote.

It looks like Liberal voters prefer a Green as they didn’t contest the by-election the Greens won, and the Labor primary vote is pretty static this time but the Liberals have dropped by almost as much as the Greens primary vote has risen. Would be interesting to know what the Liberal campaign was like here in terms of How To Vote cards as they only nominated a candidate on the last day of nominations.

[Foggy]

The ABC is at last reporting what it believes to be the definitive result from Victoria, at least in terms of seat count. For the lower house it's ALP 55, Liberal 21, National 6, Green 3 and 3 independent MPs.

In the upper chamber the standings will be Labor 18, Liberal 10, Justice Party 3, Liberal Democrats 2 and then the Nationals, Greens, Animal Justice, Reason Party, Sustainable Australia and Transport Matters all on 1 seat each, plus a further Shooters, Fishers & Farmers MLC.