|
|
Post by greenhert on Mar 17, 2018 11:44:07 GMT
In other news, Ged Kearney held Batman for Labor in the Batman by-election; there was a 2.7% swing in two-candidate preferred terms against the Greens' Alex Bathal.
Both Labor and the Greens increased their first preferences in the absence of the Liberals but Labor benefitted more; the Australian Conservatives' final transfers sealed it for Labor (they dislike the Greens more).
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
|
Post by timmullen1 on Mar 17, 2018 11:46:20 GMT
Australia's absolute authority Anthony [Wells, ABC] has called it for the Lib.s. 13:8:1, 3 undecided. 84.3% counted. You mean Antony Green. Anthony Wells is the chap from YouGov.  13:10:2 was the final allocation confirmed on Friday by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission. Interesting that Jackie Lambie Network, who were supposed to be the spoilers/kingmakers here underperformed in Tasmania, as did Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party in Queensland (and to a lesser degree Western Australia) last year, and SABest (aka Nick Xenophon Team) and Cory Bernardi’s Conservatives in South Australia today. The Greens have also failed to take the Federal by-election in Batman (Victoria) from Labor. |
|
|
|
Post by timrollpickering on Mar 17, 2018 16:00:32 GMT
In other news, Ged Kearney held Batman for Labor in the Batman by-election; there was a 2.7% swing in two-candidate preferred terms against the Greens' Alex Bathal. Both Labor and the Greens increased their first preferences in the absence of the Liberals but Labor benefitted more; the Australian Conservatives' final transfers sealed it for Labor (they dislike the Greens more). However over in South Australia the Australian Conservatives look to be trailing in their bid to retain the Legislative Council seat they picked up from absorbing Family First. The state has abolished group voting tickets and so there won't be lots of transfers flowing through. With 11 seats to be filled, currently the Liberals have 3 full quotas, Labor 3, Xenophon Best 2, with the Liberals, Greens and Labor in that order for the remaining three seats with the Conservatives in 12th place. The Dignity Party (formerly Dignity for Disability) have crashed even further and are in 14th place so will almost certainly lose their seat. |
|
|
|
Post by timrollpickering on Mar 17, 2018 16:08:06 GMT
South Australia was an odd election with boundary changes actually having a notional change of government. (The state has the awkward rule requiring boundaries to be drawn to aim to deliver a majority to the party that wins the statewide 2PP.) Only 4/47 seats seem to have changed and even then three incumbents have held on (one disendorsed member from each party plus a sitting Labor MP overcoming adverse boundary changes).
What other examples are there of parties coming into office despite a notional seat loss?
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,796
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 17, 2018 17:13:27 GMT
With 2/3 counted, it's:
37.4 (-7.4) = 24/25 LIB
33.9 (-1.9) = 18/19 LAB
13.7 (*13.7) N.Xenophon
06.6 (-2.1) GREENS
03.4 (+1.2) = 3 Ind.
03.1 (-3.0) CON
01.4 (+0.9) DIGNITY
The 2 blocs - LIB&CON and LAB&GREENS - are both at 40.5%, so Xenophon's votes seem to flow rather to the LiberalParty.
|
|
|
|
Post by pragmaticidealist on Mar 17, 2018 17:16:40 GMT
Quite a Xenophonbic state, clearly.
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,796
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 18, 2018 1:24:13 GMT
South Australia was an odd election with boundary changes actually having a notional change of government. (The state has the awkward rule requiring boundaries to be drawn to aim to deliver a majority to the party that wins the statewide 2PP.) Only 4/47 seats seem to have changed and even then three incumbents have held on (one disendorsed member from each party plus a sitting Labor MP overcoming adverse boundary changes). What other examples are there of parties coming into office despite a notional seat loss? Yes, the LIBs gained 3 of the 4 seats belonging notionally already to them; they will have failed in Mawsom, therefor picking up King, the most marginal LAB-constituency. Rather irritating, that the LIBs govern Tasmania, NSW, SA and LAB QueensLand, WA, Victoria. |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,796
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 18, 2018 13:24:18 GMT
In 31/47 seats the 2PP is already known. In 1 was no swing, in 8 one from LAB to LIB, in 22 from LIB to LAB.
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Mar 18, 2018 15:08:25 GMT
In 31/47 seats the 2PP is already known. In 1 was no swing, in 8 one from LAB to LIB, in 22 from LIB to LAB. Looking at the ABC electorate breakdown there are three/four where they might have to start the 2PP count again as the Electoral Commission incorrectly anticipated the second place candidate, mainly in Liberal seats where SABest are ahead of Labor or vice-versa. |
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on Mar 18, 2018 21:31:23 GMT
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
Member is Online
|
Post by Sibboleth on Mar 20, 2018 18:42:32 GMT
In other news, Ged Kearney held Batman for Labor in the Batman by-election; there was a 2.7% swing in two-candidate preferred terms against the Greens' Alex Bathal. Both Labor and the Greens increased their first preferences in the absence of the Liberals but Labor benefitted more; the Australian Conservatives' final transfers sealed it for Labor (they dislike the Greens more). Given that it wasn't even close in the end, it's fairly clear that Feeney had something of a negative personal vote. He was always a very strange choice of candidate for the division. |
|
|
|
Post by timrollpickering on Mar 21, 2018 0:32:20 GMT
There was a lot of finger pointing at Feeney but the downward trend in Labor's first preference vote has been much the same in all the inner city Melbourne seats across multiple elections, dating back well before Feeney. If anything this is a strong positive vote for Ged Kearney, suggesting that when Labor can find a strong candidate who appeals to the Green base they can beat them off - Anthony Albanese has managed to see off a similar decline in Grayndler in Sydney - combined with the Greens' messes.
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,426
|
Post by iain on Mar 21, 2018 0:57:19 GMT
Or it might just show the fact that the Australian Greens appear to be going nowhere at the moment.
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Mar 21, 2018 3:30:48 GMT
Or it might just show the fact that the Australian Greens appear to be going nowhere at the moment. I’d say the personal factor was the dominant one, especially as the Greens took the State electorate last year. Kearney seems to have a considerable amount of personal popularity, and, unlike her predecessor, is from the Left faction in Labor. There were also some pretty serious allegations of bullying and intimidation of staffers that surfaced against Alex Bhathal the Green candidate that both parties say showed in their tracking polls over the last week. |
|
|
|
Post by timrollpickering on Mar 28, 2018 15:59:08 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by timrollpickering on Apr 6, 2018 9:31:42 GMT
In other news, Ged Kearney held Batman for Labor in the Batman by-election; there was a 2.7% swing in two-candidate preferred terms against the Greens' Alex Bathal. Both Labor and the Greens increased their first preferences in the absence of the Liberals but Labor benefitted more; the Australian Conservatives' final transfers sealed it for Labor (they dislike the Greens more). However over in South Australia the Australian Conservatives look to be trailing in their bid to retain the Legislative Council seat they picked up from absorbing Family First. The state has abolished group voting tickets and so there won't be lots of transfers flowing through. With 11 seats to be filled, currently the Liberals have 3 full quotas, Labor 3, Xenophon Best 2, with the Liberals, Greens and Labor in that order for the remaining three seats with the Conservatives in 12th place. The Dignity Party (formerly Dignity for Disability) have crashed even further and are in 14th place so will almost certainly lose their seat. The Legislative Council election count is inching towards conclusion. Current figures suggest it will be Liberals 4, Labor 4, Xenophon Best 2, Greens 1. The Australian Conservatives look unlikely to close the gap with Labor to take the eleventh seat and so will lose one of the two MLCs they gained when they absorbed Family First. The other MLC, Dennis Hood, has defected to the Liberals, declaring the Conservatives to be going nowhere and too focused on state politics. FF elected federal Senator Lucy Gichuhi declined to ever join the Conservatives and is also now in the Liberals, so unless Cory Bernardi can untap a significant supply of voters it seems all the Australian Conservatives will ultimately achieve is a bit of mopping up on the right. (Hood's defection, though of symbolic value, makes little difference in the upper house where he's mostly voted with the Liberals anyway.) |
|
|
|
Post by timrollpickering on Jul 3, 2018 20:58:45 GMT
Another piece of election history - the 1999 New South Wales Legislative Council ballot paper:
|
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Sept 20, 2018 23:10:34 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on Nov 10, 2018 19:43:10 GMT
In the Victorian state election, the electorate of Richmond will have no Liberal candidate contesting; the Liberals claimed they were withdrawing to help defeat Richard Wynne for his involvement in the red shirts scandal: www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-08/richard-wynne-battle-labor-greens-richmond-liberal-coalition/10477766The Liberals were originally going to pull out of Brunswick, Melbourne, and Northcote (key Labor-Green contests, with the latter two electorates already having Green MPs) but they rescinded that decision at the last minute. |
|
|
|
Post by pragmaticidealist on Nov 23, 2018 18:50:36 GMT
For those in Australia, the Victorian state election is now today. Although polls show that a modest swing to the Labor government is on the cards, it's not as straightforward as it may appear at first glance; the government's overall majority is currently only four seats, and it holds considerably more marginal seats than the Coalition. A change of government seems very unlikely, but a Labor minority government reliant on Green Party support is possible. Here's Anthony Green's calculator: www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/guide/calculator/ |
|
