Foggy
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Yn Ennill Yma
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Post by Foggy on Mar 23, 2021 7:53:02 GMT
Will the Liberals still form the main opposition in the Legislative Council? I recall that from 2011 to 2015, Canada had a different official opposition in the upper and lower house.
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Post by markgoodair on Mar 23, 2021 9:34:15 GMT
Will the Liberals still form the main opposition in the Legislative Council? I recall that from 2011 to 2015, Canada had a different official opposition in the upper and lower house. ABC are predicting that the Liberals will have 7 seats in the Upper Chamber. |
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Post by johnloony on Mar 23, 2021 15:49:09 GMT
Can someone explain how this can actually ends up happening? Basically, voters have a choice of voting above or below the line. Below the line means you number every candidate yourself - but you have to number every single candidate, and a single mistake will render your whole vote invalid. The vast, vast majority of people vote above the line, meaning you simply vote for one party, and the party then directs your preference how they like. In recent years this has become an art form with minor parties making agreements to all preference each other (even though they may have nothing in common politically) in different regions. This leads to perverse outcomes like the one outlined by timrollpickering. The system was abolished federally a few years ago, leaving only Victoria and WA with the system. Victoria is less bad as you only have to give 5 preferences for a valid below the line vote, whereas in WA you have to use every preference. It is explained well in this article by the late Dr David Hill of the Electoral Reform Society: www.votingmatters.org.uk/ISSUE12/P7.HTMWhen I was a member of ERS (1995-2015) Dr Hill was one of the pedants and geeks who got het up about the exact and precise details of how to do STV counts, and how they can be improved by slight changes in various ways. P.S. If you want to be really anoraky, there are lots of articles about such things. www.votingmatters.org.uk/MAIN.HTMWhen I first joined ERS in 1995, the hot issue of the time was whether the ERS should use the Meek system or the Newland-Brittan system to count its own internal elections. A decision was made to change from the NB system to the Meek system; the result of the election which followed was that the only difference was that 15 people were elected, not including Dr Hill; whereas if the NB system had been used, then 14 people and Dr Hill would have been elected. Dr Hill was perfectly happy about his defeat, because - in his opinion - the correct system had been used. The Meek system was only used for one year and then switched back to the Newland-Brittan system. |
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Post by froome on Mar 23, 2021 16:44:28 GMT
Basically, voters have a choice of voting above or below the line. Below the line means you number every candidate yourself - but you have to number every single candidate, and a single mistake will render your whole vote invalid. The vast, vast majority of people vote above the line, meaning you simply vote for one party, and the party then directs your preference how they like. In recent years this has become an art form with minor parties making agreements to all preference each other (even though they may have nothing in common politically) in different regions. This leads to perverse outcomes like the one outlined by timrollpickering. The system was abolished federally a few years ago, leaving only Victoria and WA with the system. Victoria is less bad as you only have to give 5 preferences for a valid below the line vote, whereas in WA you have to use every preference. It is explained well in this article by the late Dr David Hill of the Electoral Reform Society: www.votingmatters.org.uk/ISSUE12/P7.HTMWhen I was a member of ERS (1995-2015) Dr Hill was one of the pedants and geeks who got het up about the exact and precise details of how to do STV counts, and how they can be improved by slight changes in various ways. P.S. If you want to be really anoraky, there are lots of articles about such things. www.votingmatters.org.uk/MAIN.HTMWhen I first joined ERS in 1995, the hot issue of the time was whether the ERS should use the Meek system or the Newland-Brittan system to count its own internal elections. A decision was made to change from the NB system to the Meek system; the result of the election which followed was that the only difference was that 15 people were elected, not including Dr Hill; whereas if the NB system had been used, then 14 people and Dr Hill would have been elected. Dr Hill was perfectly happy about his defeat, because - in his opinion - the correct system had been used. The Meek system was only used for one year and then switched back to the Newland-Brittan system. A genuine question for Mr Loony (and way off-topic for this thread) - did you leave the ERS because you no longer believe in electoral reform, and was this linked to your decision to join the Conservative party? |
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Post by johnloony on Mar 23, 2021 20:28:41 GMT
A genuine question for Mr Loony (and way off-topic for this thread) - did you leave the ERS because you no longer believe in electoral reform, and was this linked to your decision to join the Conservative party? It was a gradual process, and because of various factors: 1. I have for a long time recognised that FPTP has its own logic, that it works reasonably well in elections to the House of Commons (albeit that it doesn't, or wouldn't, work so well in other countries or in local government in various places); 2. I became increasingly annoyed with the attitude of some people in ERS who ritually condemned FPTP as perverse or horrendous, and who didn't acknowledge its own merits; 3. I gradually became less keen on PR generally; 4. My main concern about FPTP (and preference for STV) was the need to get geographical balance and spread in the representation of the main parties, and less to do with getting seats for minor parties; 5. Arguments about STV being too complicated for the general population to understand, and being biased in favour of centrist parties (due to the transfers), are legitimate concerns; 6. The Electoral Reform Society grew its membership substantially after the AV referendum in 2011, and the large influx of new members brought entryists who meant that the ERS itself became increasingly obsessed with irrelevant issues such as gender equality, votes at 16, and so on. The last straw was the 2015 AGM at which there were motions demanding that ERS members should be required to declare their gender, declare their membership of political parties, and for the ERS itself to be registered as a political party. Although those motions were heavily defeated, it was appalling that they were even considered or proposed by any ERS members. When I joined ERS in 1995, they had good quality debates and information and education about how different electoral systems worked. By 2015, STV hardly got a side mention. Part of this general problem was the then ERS Chief Executive, Katie Ghose, although I gather she has now departed. 7. I am much less pro-PR than I used to be, and this is probably connected to my transition to being a Conservative. I would be willing for local elections to be done by STV, with small wards (2 or 3 members per ward), or perhaps by a PR list system with small district magnitude, but it's not a priority. |
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Post by redvers on Mar 23, 2021 21:05:14 GMT
Will the Liberals still form the main opposition in the Legislative Council? I recall that from 2011 to 2015, Canada had a different official opposition in the upper and lower house. Yep, Liberals will have about 3 times as many members in the upper as the lower! In other news, the Liberals have elected David Honey as the new leader. Deputy Leader Libby Mettam decided not to stand, which is good as I'm not entirely sure how the party is supposed to resolve a tie between the only two MLAs! (Unless MLCs can vote as well?) |
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Post by timrollpickering on Mar 23, 2021 21:21:36 GMT
IIRC usually the leader & deputy are elected by the whole party room from both lower & upper houses.
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Post by markgoodair on Apr 1, 2021 11:55:24 GMT
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Post by redvers on Apr 6, 2021 1:10:33 GMT
Lol...
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on May 1, 2021 11:56:36 GMT
Today has been an early State election in Tasmania, and unlike ACT, NT, Queensland and Western Australia there’s been no Covid bounce for Peter Gutwein’s incumbent Liberal administration. Antony Green has pretty much called the election for the Liberal’s but at the moment it’s very much in doubt whether they will get the 13 seats for majority and Gutwein during the campaign said he would quit rather than lead a coalition. The ABC’s current projected seat share, using the Hare-Clark electoral system, is 12 Liberal, 7 Labor and 2 Green with 4 in doubt, but only one where the Liberals are in contention, which would give them majority government again. William Bowe (The Poll Bludger) has a decent results page as it’s the only one with individual booth results: www.pollbludger.net/tas2021/Results/index.htm |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 1, 2021 13:57:18 GMT
Today has been an early State election in Tasmania, and unlike ACT, NT, Queensland and Western Australia there’s been no Covid bounce for Peter Gutwein’s incumbent Liberal administration. Antony Green has pretty much called the election for the Liberal’s but at the moment it’s very much in doubt whether they will get the 13 seats for majority and Gutwein during the campaign said he would quit rather than lead a coalition. The ABC’s current projected seat share, using the Hare-Clark electoral system, is 12 Liberal, 7 Labor and 2 Green with 4 in doubt, but only one where the Liberals are in contention, which would give them majority government again. William Bowe (The Poll Bludger) has a decent results page as it’s the only one with individual booth results: www.pollbludger.net/tas2021/Results/index.htm? At ABC they have the last seats in Bass & Lyons going to either Labor or Greens. But the final seat of Braddon will be going to 1 of 2 Liberals, giving them 12. And in Clark (ex-Denison) 2 must be filled with 1 Ind. and 2 Lib. still in the race - so the Liberals will end with 13-14 MPs. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 1, 2021 14:09:14 GMT
Today has been an early State election in Tasmania, and unlike ACT, NT, Queensland and Western Australia there’s been no Covid bounce for Peter Gutwein’s incumbent Liberal administration. Not sure about that: The new PM took over in spring 2020, so his sharp increase in popularity was perhaps only his HoneyMoon? His party received roughly, what it had been polled before the CoronaCrisis. But without it they might have lost the election? Tas. is not their strongest territory after all. |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on May 1, 2021 14:35:04 GMT
Today has been an early State election in Tasmania, and unlike ACT, NT, Queensland and Western Australia there’s been no Covid bounce for Peter Gutwein’s incumbent Liberal administration. Antony Green has pretty much called the election for the Liberal’s but at the moment it’s very much in doubt whether they will get the 13 seats for majority and Gutwein during the campaign said he would quit rather than lead a coalition. The ABC’s current projected seat share, using the Hare-Clark electoral system, is 12 Liberal, 7 Labor and 2 Green with 4 in doubt, but only one where the Liberals are in contention, which would give them majority government again. William Bowe (The Poll Bludger) has a decent results page as it’s the only one with individual booth results: www.pollbludger.net/tas2021/Results/index.htm? At ABC they have the last seats in Bass & Lyons going to either Labor or Greens. But the final seat of Braddon will be going to 1 of 2 Liberals, giving them 12. And in Clark (ex-Denison) 2 must be filled with 1 Ind. and 2 Lib. still in the race - so the Liberals will end with 13-14 MPs. Yes, that’s firmed up since I posted; at the time there was still an outside chance of two independents getting up in Clark. |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on May 1, 2021 14:41:29 GMT
Today has been an early State election in Tasmania, and unlike ACT, NT, Queensland and Western Australia there’s been no Covid bounce for Peter Gutwein’s incumbent Liberal administration. Not sure about that: The new PM took over in spring 2020, so his sharp increase in popularity was perhaps only his HoneyMoon? His party received roughly, what it had been polled before the CoronaCrisis. But without it they might have lost the election? Tas. is not their strongest territory after all. There share of the vote is down from 2017, albeit marginally, suggesting that if they benefited from Covid it was merely standing still not surging as we’ve seen elsewhere. The consensus seems to be that Labor blew their chances with the first two weeks dominated by rows over preselections, candidates openly disagreeing with Party policies, but in the second week they started to get their act together enough to have the Liberals somewhat concerned by Election Day. Notably the last 10 days of the campaign were more like a traditional election, on housing, healthcare, employment, with Covid management hardly mentioned. |
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Post by ibfc on May 1, 2021 19:42:53 GMT
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on May 1, 2021 23:19:55 GMT
Thanks, I was halfway through typing the same 👍 |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on May 12, 2021 10:19:01 GMT
After the near final spray of preferences in the Clark electorate in Tasmania, Independent Kristie Johnson wins one seat and Liberal incumbent Madeleine Ogilvie narrowly beats the former Labor turned Independent Speaker of the Assembly, Sue Hickey, to give the Liberals their 13th seat and majority government. The final composition of the chamber will be 13 Liberal, 9 Labor, 2 Greens and 1 Independent.
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Post by timrollpickering on May 12, 2021 11:48:33 GMT
Hickey was Liberal turned Independent.
Ogilvie was Labor turned Independent turned Liberal.
The election was called early after the loss of Hickey left the government in a minority relying on the independent Ogilvie. The new Assembly is not much changed from before the election beyond Ogilvie now being formally in blue with another Independent taking the second seat Labor won in Clark last time.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on May 12, 2021 12:26:52 GMT
Hickey was Liberal turned Independent. Ogilvie was Labor turned Independent turned Liberal. The election was called early after the loss of Hickey left the government in a minority relying on the independent Ogilvie. The new Assembly is not much changed from before the election beyond Ogilvie now being formally in blue with another Independent taking the second seat Labor won in Clark last time. Apologies, brain freeze when typing; I’d even got a picture of Hickey in the Speaker’s chair open in another window, which should’ve been a giveaway. |
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Post by timrollpickering on May 13, 2021 9:42:25 GMT
The changes in total:
Bass - Janie Finaly (Labor) defeats Jennifer Houston (Labor)
Braddon - Adam Brooks (Liberal) defeats Felix Ellis (Liberal; elected at a countback). Ellis had filled a vacancy for the seat originally won by Brooks in 2018.
Clark - Madeleine Ogilvie (voted for as Labor, elected at a countback for a Labor vacancy but sat as an Independent, stood as a Liberal) re-elected in new colours, Kristie Johnston (Independent) defeats Sue Hickey (elected Liberal, went Independent)
Franklin - Dean Winter (Labor) defeats Alison Standen (Labor) and also the Left faction in internal selection shenanigans
Lyons - All sitting members re-elected
So a few personnel changes but only one seat changes party hands compared to either the last election result (Independent gain from Labor) or at dissolution (independent adopts Liberal colours).
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