Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2021 15:33:28 GMT
2017 was a catastrophic result for the Liberals. 2021 is the electoral equivalent of an asteroid impacting the Earth and annihilating all life as we know it. No word or phrase I can think of to describe this result seems strong enough really |
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Post by greenhert on Mar 14, 2021 17:02:21 GMT
Some of the two-party preferred margins of victory for Labor in that WA state election are ridiculous by normal Australian standards, even for safe seats e.g. 87.4% to 12.6% in Rockingham (1st preference vote for Labor: 82%, normally impossible to achieve at state or federal level anywhere in Australia).
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2021 18:57:12 GMT
Some of the two-party preferred margins of victory for Labor in that WA state election are ridiculous by normal Australian standards, even for safe seats e.g. 87.4% to 12.6% in Rockingham (1st preference vote for Labor: 82%, normally impossible to achieve at state or federal level anywhere in Australia). Someone pointed out somewhere that if you take the 2 party preferred swing of the last two elections together it adds up to nearly a 25% swing to Labor |
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Mar 14, 2021 19:10:09 GMT
Funny story: Prior to the 2017 state election, former ALP federal minister Stephen Smith attempted a coup against McGowan's leadership on the basis that the latter wasn't capable of leading the party to victory.
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Post by redvers on Mar 14, 2021 19:57:58 GMT
Funny story: Prior to the 2017 state election, former ALP federal minister Stephen Smith attempted a coup against McGowan's leadership on the basis that the latter wasn't capable of leading the party to victory. Former WA Labor Premier Brian Burke around the same time called McGowan as exciting as an open grave. Of course probably best WA Labor doesn't take advice from Burke on anything... |
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Post by Andrew_S on Mar 15, 2021 0:03:54 GMT
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 15, 2021 0:23:54 GMT
The article attributes his win to closing the state's borders, which was opposed by the local Liberal leadership and even prosecuted by the National Liberal government (they lost). |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 15, 2021 0:45:03 GMT
The article attributes his win to closing the state's borders, which was opposed by the local Liberal leadership and even prosecuted by the National Liberal government (they lost). Nahan did go on to say there were other contributory factors to the defeat, if not the scale of it: iron ore, a major factor in WA’s economy, has been at record high prices, allowing McGowan to both raise public spending, particularly on rail and hospital building, whilst topping up the reserves which the Barnett government (with Nahan as Treasurer) had raided to such an extent that the state had lost its AAA credit rating from Moody’s, and has given WA, despite the pandemic, the lowest unemployment rate in the country. However the power of incumbency during Covid has undoubtedly been real, as the article notes the re-election with increased majorities of Labor administrations in Queensland, Northern Territories, ACT, and now Western Australia, which is counterbalanced to an extent (and maybe to Morrison’s salvation) by a record low poll for NSW Labor, despite the blatant corruption of the Berejiklian Liberal government and its civil war with its National coalition partners. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Mar 15, 2021 12:21:03 GMT
Some interesting results in the Legislative Council. The smaller parties have done badly such that the crossbench (excluding the Nationals) has been cut from nine to three members.
The Greens have lost all four seats they were defending (in East Metropolitan, North Metropolitan, Mining & Pastoral and South West) but gained one in South Metropolitan.
The Shooters Fishers and Farmers have lost their seat in Agricultural but gain one in Mining & Pastoral.
One Nation has lost all three seats including the defector to the Western Australian Party. The Liberal Democrats are wiped out completely.
Labor are currently looking at 5/6 seats in East Metropolitan.
On these figures Labor now have an absolutely majority in the upper house even if they have to give away one as the presiding officer (I can't remember the voting rights). This will allow them to tackle the malaportionment if they wish. They didn't have the numbers to go the whole distance in 2005 and things were different in the late 1980s when the current multi-member system was introduced. Back then Labor had a lot of strength in the Mining & Pastoral region (winning every lower house seat in 1989) and cut a deal with the Nationals but since then big changes in the way mining is done have altered the political calculations.
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Post by timrollpickering on Mar 16, 2021 3:00:21 GMT
Antony Green has called North West Central for the Nationals, taking them to four seats with Warren-Blackwood still in doubt but the Nats are leading.
North West Central is held by Vince Catania who was first elected for Labor in 2008 but defected to the Nationals the following year and has held the seat ever since. Failing to dislodge him may be the only disappointment for Labor in the whole election.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 16, 2021 8:04:25 GMT
Antony Green has called North West Central for the Nationals, taking them to four seats with Warren-Blackwood still in doubt but the Nats are leading. North West Central is held by Vince Catania who was first elected for Labor in 2008 but defected to the Nationals the following year and has held the seat ever since. Failing to dislodge him may be the only disappointment for Labor in the whole election. Whilst he’s not yet retracting his call in North West Central, the first batch of absentee ballots have broken 82-41 for Labor, a potentially much stronger showing for them after the Nats wom absentees by 51.4% 2PP four years ago |
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Mar 17, 2021 8:38:58 GMT
Labor's primary vote has now crept over 60%, which they would have been more than delighted with on 2PP.
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Post by timrollpickering on Mar 17, 2021 17:42:43 GMT
Some changes in the Legislative Council predictions. The big one is in the Mining & Pastoral region where tiny numbers of votes can have big shifts. It now looks like the Liberals will hold their seat at the expense of the Nationals whilst Shooters Fishers and Farmers won't gain. Instead the Daylight Saving Party with a primary vote of 67 (0.18% or 0.0127 quota) soaks up preferences from all over to take a seat in the part of the state least interested in Daylight Saving.
Maybe this will be the moment to reform the GVTs?
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Mar 18, 2021 20:30:16 GMT
Some changes in the Legislative Council predictions. The big one is in the Mining & Pastoral region where tiny numbers of votes can have big shifts. It now looks like the Liberals will hold their seat at the expense of the Nationals whilst Shooters Fishers and Farmers won't gain. Instead the Daylight Saving Party with a primary vote of 67 (0.18% or 0.0127 quota) soaks up preferences from all over to take a seat in the part of the state least interested in Daylight Saving. Maybe this will be the moment to reform the GVTs? Even if Labor doesn't use its majority to get rid of upper house malapportionment (or do the really sensible thing and ditch the Legislative Council altogether), reforming group ticket voting into something less ridiculous should be a priority that will have a broad consensus in favour of it across the four main parties. |
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Mar 19, 2021 13:10:13 GMT
Churchlands called for Labor.
As Antony Green pointed out, the joke that was used about the Canadian Progressive Conservatives in 1993 can now be applied to the WA Liberals. They have an equal number of men and women MPs. Problem is they only have two MPs.
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Post by johnloony on Mar 19, 2021 17:12:22 GMT
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iain
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Post by iain on Mar 19, 2021 22:15:40 GMT
If the Legislative Council was elected using D’Hondt then Labor would have achieved an absolutely astonishing result:
Labor - 28
Liberal - 6
National - 2
That’s Labor 5, Liberal 1 in every region except Agricultural, which would have split 3-2-1 between Labor, National and Liberal. Using the statewide result would no doubt give an even more dominant majority for Labor.
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Post by edgbaston on Mar 19, 2021 23:30:54 GMT
Some changes in the Legislative Council predictions. The big one is in the Mining & Pastoral region where tiny numbers of votes can have big shifts. It now looks like the Liberals will hold their seat at the expense of the Nationals whilst Shooters Fishers and Farmers won't gain. Instead the Daylight Saving Party with a primary vote of 67 (0.18% or 0.0127 quota) soaks up preferences from all over to take a seat in the part of the state least interested in Daylight Saving. Maybe this will be the moment to reform the GVTs? Can someone explain how this can actually ends up happening? |
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iain
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Post by iain on Mar 19, 2021 23:44:15 GMT
Some changes in the Legislative Council predictions. The big one is in the Mining & Pastoral region where tiny numbers of votes can have big shifts. It now looks like the Liberals will hold their seat at the expense of the Nationals whilst Shooters Fishers and Farmers won't gain. Instead the Daylight Saving Party with a primary vote of 67 (0.18% or 0.0127 quota) soaks up preferences from all over to take a seat in the part of the state least interested in Daylight Saving. Maybe this will be the moment to reform the GVTs? Can someone explain how this can actually ends up happening? Basically, voters have a choice of voting above or below the line. Below the line means you number every candidate yourself - but you have to number every single candidate, and a single mistake will render your whole vote invalid. The vast, vast majority of people vote above the line, meaning you simply vote for one party, and the party then directs your preference how they like. In recent years this has become an art form with minor parties making agreements to all preference each other (even though they may have nothing in common politically) in different regions. This leads to perverse outcomes like the one outlined by timrollpickering. The system was abolished federally a few years ago, leaving only Victoria and WA with the system. Victoria is less bad as you only have to give 5 preferences for a valid below the line vote, whereas in WA you have to use every preference. |
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Post by redvers on Mar 20, 2021 21:09:07 GMT
So the final result now looks settled:
53 Labor
4 Nationals
2 Liberals
Astounding. We could lead the rest of our lives and still never see a result like this in Australia again. There will be slight disappointment that Vince Catania was not knocked off - the Labor movement never forgives a defector. But Catania has already indicated he plans to challenge Mia Davies for the leadership of the Nationals so there's a silver-lining to everything - lovely bit of disunity to start the Nationals' first stint as opposition!
By my reckoning, it would take a uniform swing of near 26% for Labor to lose its majority in 2025...
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