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Post by carlton43 on Feb 24, 2017 3:03:31 GMT
So in Stoke the Conservative vote not only held up but improved and completely stalled UKIP. If only we could have pipped them for 2nd place? I forecast a collapse in that UKIP vote at the next GE and very tight result if on these boundaries.
Copeland is testimony to jobs in a real dominant industry trumping smears and scares over the NHS. No LD surge and UKIP collapse into the Conservatives. Excellent.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Feb 24, 2017 3:03:46 GMT
I'm guessing that the polls are actually underestimating our strength right now... 2020 will be a landslide, I suspect we'll even make gains across large swathes of Scotland. 3 long years! And if Copeland will have begun to end the career of Mr.Corbyn... |
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Post by mrpastelito on Feb 24, 2017 3:05:57 GMT
I'm guessing that the polls are actually underestimating our strength right now... 2020 will be a landslide, I suspect we'll even make gains across large swathes of Scotland. Don't rub it in ffs 3 years is a long time in politics. Mark my words: Theresa May will not win a General Election. |
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peterl
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Post by peterl on Feb 24, 2017 3:06:48 GMT
An awful night all round then in both seats. I'm off to bed.
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Feb 24, 2017 3:08:21 GMT
OMG!!!!! Not what I expected! I am having to restrain myself from squealing and jumping up and down in ecstasy (not wanting to wake up the neighbours) and my face is hurting because I'm smiling so frenziedly! This is the best result since Gavin Barwell was re-elected!
I had been crunching the numbers in my brain earlier and worked out that the winning post would be about 12,000. Even allowing for uncertainty about how big the UKIP and Lib Dem votes might be, it was clear that 13,748 would be enough to win even before the 11,601 was announced.
And hooray that Labour's usual scare story about having 24 hours to save the NHS has failed! Haha!
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iain
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Post by iain on Feb 24, 2017 3:08:50 GMT
That this is (probably) not enough to bring Corbyn tumbling down is absolutely laughable.
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on Feb 24, 2017 3:09:30 GMT
So in Stoke the Conservative vote not only held up but improved and completely stalled UKIP. If only we could have pipped them for 2nd place? I forecast a collapse in that UKIP vote at the next GE and very tight result if on these boundaries. Copeland is testimony to jobs in a real dominant industry trumping smears and scares over the NHS. No LD surge and UKIP collapse into the Conservatives. Excellent. doubled our vote in both seats, when we might have been squeezed to death - I'll sleep ok |
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Post by pepperminttea on Feb 24, 2017 3:19:10 GMT
3 years is a long time in politics. Mark my words: Theresa May will not win a General Election. That's a stupid thing to say. While of course it is not certain she will win (the future is never certain), Labour is in such a deep rut that it is not unlikely. Saying the Tories won't win just because you don't like them is just plain silly. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Feb 24, 2017 3:27:00 GMT
3 years is a long time in politics. Mark my words: Theresa May will not win a General Election. That's a stupid thing to say. While of course it is not certain she will win (the future is never certain), Labour is in such a deep rut that it is not unlikely. Saying the Tories won't win just because you don't like them is just plain silly. Has mrpastelito said, that he doesn't like the Tories or Mrs.May? |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Feb 24, 2017 3:30:02 GMT
I'm guessing that the polls are actually underestimating our strength right now... 2020 will be a landslide, I suspect we'll even make gains across large swathes of Scotland. Don't rub it in ffs I think he's just getting carried away more than 'rubbing it in'. Not only are 3 years a long time in politics as Georg says, but I think mrpastelito is right as well. A GE focuses the mind of the public at large and their conclusions may not be the same as the people of Copeland at a by-election. During the campaign the national polls can become both volatile and wrong. Come now! Even a loony Labour voter such as yourself must take immense pleasure in the thought of Alex Salmond and Angus Robertson losing their constituencies to Conservatives in 2020! Can't beat it. I think Salmond would announce his retirement from the Commons yet again if he got a sense that this was a serious possibility. As a (GB) unionist I would have to welcome SNP losses in those constituencies, but it's a pity if the Lib Dems are no longer seen as the main tactical opposition in Gordon or its successor seat. |
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 24, 2017 3:32:22 GMT
<img class="smile" contenteditable="false" alt="  " src="//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/superangry.png" text=" " ![]() Right I'm up for coop MK2, Corbyn MUST GO Yes! A re-launch of the Co-op might just do it? A coo is what we up here have instead of cows; or to be more stark it might be Koo; and there again it could be a storm in a political ice cream parlour.......or coup de glace? |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Feb 24, 2017 3:32:46 GMT
That's a stupid thing to say. While of course it is not certain she will win (the future is never certain), Labour is in such a deep rut that it is not unlikely. Saying the Tories won't win just because you don't like them is just plain silly. Has mrpastelito said, that he doesn't like the Tories or Mrs.May? I think he has very heavily implied the latter with his last comment.  |
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Post by pepperminttea on Feb 24, 2017 3:34:02 GMT
That's a stupid thing to say. While of course it is not certain she will win (the future is never certain), Labour is in such a deep rut that it is not unlikely. Saying the Tories won't win just because you don't like them is just plain silly. Has mrpastelito said, that he doesn't like the Tories or Mrs.May? Not sure but saying mark my words x won't happen is fairly indicative that you don't like what ever x is. Sure it is possible the Tories could lose in 2020 but given the severe problems of the opposition to claim it's certain or even at all likely is a silly comment. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Feb 24, 2017 3:39:18 GMT
Considering, how "much" Labour can loose this May (Glasgow&surrounding no surprise, the Valleys unlikely, remain Notts, Derbys, Durham, Doncester and few mayoralities):
Expect a long agony of Corbyn!
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 24, 2017 3:39:26 GMT
So in Stoke the Conservative vote not only held up but improved and completely stalled UKIP. If only we could have pipped them for 2nd place? I forecast a collapse in that UKIP vote at the next GE and very tight result if on these boundaries. Copeland is testimony to jobs in a real dominant industry trumping smears and scares over the NHS. No LD surge and UKIP collapse into the Conservatives. Excellent. doubled our vote in both seats, when we might have been squeezed to death - I'll sleep ok Using 2015 as a baseline, while hardly being unreasonable, is always likely to make things look good from your point of view and is merely a measure of how desperately badly you did then in seats like these. Fact remains you still won under 10% of the vote in both seats and were an irrelevance in both. Several Lib Dem members of this forum were predicting the Lib Dems would come second in Stoke and made several pointless trips to try and help achieve that. Your party wasn't part of the story whatsoever. The funniest thing I have ever heard was the nonentity of a Lib Dem peer just now saying this was a bad night for the Tories and then citing a local by-election in Kettering |
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nitory
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Post by nitory on Feb 24, 2017 3:48:10 GMT
Cat Smith: The funniest bit is that the stupid cow probably believes it  Having had the misfortune of previously being represented by her, I've no doubt she believes in such nonsense It's very telling despite being in Corbyn's core group, she's never been promoted beyond shadowing a non-existent role! |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2017 5:46:46 GMT
YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I remember Brighouse and Spenborough in 1960 but that had been an extreme marginal and stayed so. This is a quite monumental victory. This will go down in electoral history and it is a disaster for Labour in opposition to A Conservative Government in mid-term second term. WOW WOW WOW - The last time any governing party did what the Conservatives are trying to do in Copeland, on a genuine, like-for-like basis, last happened under Benjamin Disraeli's Premiership in 1878. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2017 6:07:13 GMT
So in Stoke the Conservative vote not only held up but improved and completely stalled UKIP. If only we could have pipped them for 2nd place? I forecast a collapse in that UKIP vote at the next GE and very tight result if on these boundaries. Copeland is testimony to jobs in a real dominant industry trumping smears and scares over the NHS. No LD surge and UKIP collapse into the Conservatives. Excellent. UKIP did rather better in Stoke than I expected, and it could be argued that - as so often before - they have survived to fight another day. However, I think I was correct that the Conservatives set out to stymie them, and fought a successful stealth campaign which has done just that. In a year when UKIP faces very unpromising local elections, the party needed something that could be presented as a success, and could be used as a launchpad. A by-election stalemate in which the party leader was subjected to major public embarrassment doesn't meet that criterion. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 24, 2017 6:17:05 GMT
I await the excuses with morbid curiosity. I'm expecting "hostile media" (which will ignore the News & Star), "countryside" (which will ignore it being a long-time Labour seat) and "weather" (which will ignore the weather being the same for every voter). |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 24, 2017 6:28:30 GMT
I await the excuses with morbid curiosity. Well, you'll enjoy this one. Cat Smith: The funniest bit is that the stupid cow probably believes it I'm not sure if she's an idiot or if she is just full of bovine faeces. I'll be generous and assume both. |
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