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Post by carlton43 on Feb 25, 2017 12:12:52 GMT
Then it must have all been thanks to Corbyn, Abbott and McDonnell that Labour gained Dudley West in 1994 with a 29% swing. Hmmmmmm. I would love to say that I am surprised by that tweet, but I'm not There really is no TOSSER like an OLD LEFTIE TOSSER!!! |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Feb 25, 2017 13:03:13 GMT
In the 18 by-elections in the last Parliament in England & Wales, Labour averaged an increase of 3.7%. If we exclude the three by-elections where parties who had not previously stood won the election, then the Labour increase would average 7.5%.
This led to an increase of 3.4% in England & Wales at the general election.
In this Parliament there have been 9 by-elections (excluding Batley & Spen), where the Labour Party has averaged a decrease of 0.4%. Pre-referendum, they averaged a 5.4% increase, post-referendum a 5.0% decrease.
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Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,679
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Post by Jack on Feb 25, 2017 13:37:36 GMT
This just sums up the delusion of the Corbyn clique that has infested the Labour party. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 25, 2017 18:01:32 GMT
Then it must have all been thanks to Corbyn, Abbott and McDonnell that Labour gained Dudley West in 1994 with a 29% swing. Hmmmmmm. I would love to say that I am surprised by that tweet, but I'm not It's intriguing that he doesn't blame Labour's 2015 victory on Blair and Brown. Almost like he has an agenda |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 25, 2017 18:16:38 GMT
Ken Loach has always been insane so there's little point in further analysis.
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961
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Post by mondialito on Feb 25, 2017 18:39:00 GMT
In the 18 by-elections in the last Parliament in England & Wales, Labour averaged an increase of 3.7%. If we exclude the three by-elections where parties who had not previously stood won the election, then the Labour increase would average 7.5%. This led to an increase of 3.4% in England & Wales at the general election. In this Parliament there have been 9 by-elections (excluding Batley & Spen), where the Labour Party has averaged a decrease of 0.4%. Pre-referendum, they averaged a 5.4% increase, post-referendum a 5.0% decrease. Looks like Curtice's point about losing Remain voters is the most pertinent one. |
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Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
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Post by Rural Radical on Feb 25, 2017 18:57:32 GMT
Hmmmmmm. I would love to say that I am surprised by that tweet, but I'm not It's intriguing that he doesn't blame Labour's 2015 victory on Blair and Brown. Almost like he has an agenda Do we mean 2005? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 25, 2017 20:46:26 GMT
It's intriguing that he doesn't blame Labour's 2015 victory on Blair and Brown. Almost like he has an agenda Do we mean 2005? I mean more that he is happy to pin the loss in Copeland in 2017 on Blair and Brown despite their being long departed, when logically this implies that Blair and Brown and their records were assets to the Labour cause in Copeland just two years ago. |
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Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
Posts: 1,627
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Post by Rural Radical on Feb 25, 2017 21:26:00 GMT
I mean more that he is happy to pin the loss in Copeland in 2017 on Blair and Brown despite their being long departed, when logically this implies that Blair and Brown and their records were assets to the Labour cause in Copeland just two years ago. I know what you mean, I misread it at first |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 26, 2017 3:31:14 GMT
Of course the person who has done the most work lately to undermine Labour's elected Leader is... er... Labour's elected Leader. Who is now a man with approximately negative credibility and is currently doing an excellent job of looking like The Man With The Least Dignity In The World. People have committed seppuku for less. Takes Two to Seppuku |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 26, 2017 3:32:11 GMT
This just sums up the delusion of the Corbyn clique that has infested the Labour party. Except the Corbyn Clique are not Labour Party Activists in the main. |
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 26, 2017 12:04:29 GMT
Well, time to have digested all this and to come to some conclusions.
1) The Conservatives have morphed from fractious and Cameroon nearly seamlessly into unified Brexit and old school Tory.
2) Labour has morphed into a three-way fractious sack of ferrets and has less than fully competent leadership.
3) The LDs are small but reinvigorated in part and building up from some bases with occasional surge captures.
4) UKIP are blighted as much by Conservative success as anything else but very far from terminally damaged.
5) The SNP are entrenched and dominant in Scotland but past high tide and with the Conservatives carving out the principal opposition.
6) Other parties present but functionally totally irrelevant to everything.
The Conservatives will now have a surge of confidence and might well opt for a snap GE if they are thwarted again by Courts or HOL? They have very little to discomfit them except a failure of nerve, poor quality policy communication and press relations, and the one huge bogie of a string of reverses in Brexit negotiations. Even that could play in their favour if handled adroitly and if the opposition wrong-foot themselves by identifying too closely with 'Our Enemies Abroad', or showing up as smug and triumphant over our problems with the EU (beware that LDs at your peril!).
Brexit problems are likely and should not be thought to be automatically a benefit to opposition parties. They might cement the Conservative lead and add to it as we are seen to be assailed by unfair sniping and attack from home and abroad. In fact it could play very much to the advantage of both UKIP and the Conservatives as they each eat into LDs and Labour if those parties are seen to be un-patriotic and working against 'Our Interests'?! It will very much be down to how it is handled and the clarity and simplicity with which it is set out. I think it will be easier for Brexit to stay onside and avoid penalties than it will for Remainers!
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Post by mrpastelito on Feb 26, 2017 12:59:08 GMT
Of course the person who has done the most work lately to undermine Labour's elected Leader is... er... Labour's elected Leader. Who is now a man with approximately negative credibility and is currently doing an excellent job of looking like The Man With The Least Dignity In The World. People have committed seppuku for less. Takes Two to Seppuku Well I'm sure there's no shortage of people in the Labour party who'd be happy to chop his head off once he's disemboweled himself. |
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 26, 2017 14:21:41 GMT
I attended a few election counts in the late 1960's / early 1970's and do not recall seeing counters sat around doing very little for much of the evening. Many were bank tellers capable of counting quickly and accurately. I do recall constituencies such as Cheltenham and Guildford rushing to become the first to declare - even weighing the votes. Recently Sunderland has managed to count 3 constituencies one hour before the next to declare.
I attended the count for our district and parish councils on the Friday after the 2015 General Election. The count started at 1.00 pm and was still going on when I left around 9.30. I realise everyone was tired after the parliamentary count overnight but I witnessed the counters sat around for long periods of time whilst "management" tried to reconcile the figures. It did not seem like an efficient count to say the least.
On Thursday the same seemed to apply at both locations. There appeared to be tables where the activity of counting the votes ended quite some time before the result was declared. At one stage they called the agents / candidates (?) to assess disputed ballots but then the result was still a long time coming.
Do others feel we have lost something in recent years in being able to count quickly. Or am I alone in considering counts are not as well organised as in the past.
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 26, 2017 14:28:24 GMT
I attended a few election counts in the late 1960's / early 1970's and do not recall seeing counters sat around doing very little for much of the evening. Many were bank tellers capable of counting quickly and accurately. I do recall constituencies such as Cheltenham and Guildford rushing to become the first to declare - even weighing the votes. Recently Sunderland has managed to count 3 constituencies one hour before the next to declare. I attended the count for our district and parish councils on the Friday after the 2015 General Election. The count started at 1.00 pm and was still going on when I left around 9.30. I realise everyone was tired after the parliamentary count overnight but I witnessed the counters sat around for long periods of time whilst "management" tried to reconcile the figures. It did not seem like an efficient count to say the least. On Thursday the same seemed to apply at both locations. There appeared to be tables where the activity of counting the votes ended quite some time before the result was declared. At one stage they called the agents / candidates (?) to assess disputed ballots but then the result was still a long time coming. Do others feel we have lost something in recent years in being able to count quickly. Or am I alone in considering counts are not as well organised as in the past. The decline in the number of bank clerks since then probably hasn't helped. I was thinking that in my experience local authorities use their own staff (on overtime?) rather than employ outside staff which would then lead to people accusing them of wasting money.... but then I wasn't so sure. What do other people know? |
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 26, 2017 14:38:15 GMT
I attended a few election counts in the late 1960's / early 1970's and do not recall seeing counters sat around doing very little for much of the evening. Many were bank tellers capable of counting quickly and accurately. I do recall constituencies such as Cheltenham and Guildford rushing to become the first to declare - even weighing the votes. Recently Sunderland has managed to count 3 constituencies one hour before the next to declare. I attended the count for our district and parish councils on the Friday after the 2015 General Election. The count started at 1.00 pm and was still going on when I left around 9.30. I realise everyone was tired after the parliamentary count overnight but I witnessed the counters sat around for long periods of time whilst "management" tried to reconcile the figures. It did not seem like an efficient count to say the least. On Thursday the same seemed to apply at both locations. There appeared to be tables where the activity of counting the votes ended quite some time before the result was declared. At one stage they called the agents / candidates (?) to assess disputed ballots but then the result was still a long time coming. Do others feel we have lost something in recent years in being able to count quickly. Or am I alone in considering counts are not as well organised as in the past. Agreed in all particulars ME. I had the pleasure of voicing much of that to the very harassed and cross Deputy Returning Officer at Shrewsbury at the 2005 Count when my result had just come in from Ross, Cromarty & Skye! Her's was still mired in unplanned chaos from a small compact constituency, whereas mine was the largest in the EU and included a number of islands as well as a tract running across Scotland from coast to coast. I detailed all that and then added....."Just saying!" For a brief moment I think we both wondered if she would kill me there and then with her bare hands.....Or later at leisure! If its worth saying its worth saying! |
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 26, 2017 15:21:13 GMT
I attended a few election counts in the late 1960's / early 1970's and do not recall seeing counters sat around doing very little for much of the evening. Many were bank tellers capable of counting quickly and accurately. I do recall constituencies such as Cheltenham and Guildford rushing to become the first to declare - even weighing the votes. Recently Sunderland has managed to count 3 constituencies one hour before the next to declare. I attended the count for our district and parish councils on the Friday after the 2015 General Election. The count started at 1.00 pm and was still going on when I left around 9.30. I realise everyone was tired after the parliamentary count overnight but I witnessed the counters sat around for long periods of time whilst "management" tried to reconcile the figures. It did not seem like an efficient count to say the least. On Thursday the same seemed to apply at both locations. There appeared to be tables where the activity of counting the votes ended quite some time before the result was declared. At one stage they called the agents / candidates (?) to assess disputed ballots but then the result was still a long time coming. Do others feel we have lost something in recent years in being able to count quickly. Or am I alone in considering counts are not as well organised as in the past. The decline in the number of bank clerks since then probably hasn't helped. I was thinking that in my experience local authorities use their own staff (on overtime?) rather than employ outside staff which would then lead to people accusing them of wasting money.... but then I wasn't so sure. What do other people know? I did it when I worked for the local council in the late80s/early90s - we got paid either time and ahalf or double time (cant recall) and also a day off in lieu. Was a good gig  |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 26, 2017 16:23:03 GMT
Whilst I have not been a Labour Party member for 20 years - having not renewed my membership in 1997 because of Blair - I have generally supported their candidates at local elections.I will now cease to do that whilst Corbyn remains Leader and will switch my vote to the Greens in May . I live in a Labour v Green ward with no other party in serious contention. I am now hoping that Labour loses control of all its County Councils in May and that such a calamity will finally oblige the Union Leaders to intervene. But in these mass membership, OMOV days do they have the influence to intervene effectively? |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 26, 2017 16:31:48 GMT
I attended a few election counts in the late 1960's / early 1970's and do not recall seeing counters sat around doing very little for much of the evening. Many were bank tellers capable of counting quickly and accurately. I do recall constituencies such as Cheltenham and Guildford rushing to become the first to declare - even weighing the votes. Recently Sunderland has managed to count 3 constituencies one hour before the next to declare. I attended the count for our district and parish councils on the Friday after the 2015 General Election. The count started at 1.00 pm and was still going on when I left around 9.30. I realise everyone was tired after the parliamentary count overnight but I witnessed the counters sat around for long periods of time whilst "management" tried to reconcile the figures. It did not seem like an efficient count to say the least. On Thursday the same seemed to apply at both locations. There appeared to be tables where the activity of counting the votes ended quite some time before the result was declared. At one stage they called the agents / candidates (?) to assess disputed ballots but then the result was still a long time coming. Do others feel we have lost something in recent years in being able to count quickly. Or am I alone in considering counts are not as well organised as in the past. Agreed in all particulars ME. I had the pleasure of voicing much of that to the very harassed and cross Deputy Returning Officer at Shrewsbury at the 2005 Count when my result had just come in from Ross, Cromarty & Skye! Her's was still mired in unplanned chaos from a small compact constituency, whereas mine was the largest in the EU and included a number of islands as well as a tract running across Scotland from coast to coast. I detailed all that and then added....."Just saying!" For a brief moment I think we both wondered if she would kill me there and then with her bare hands.....Or later at leisure! If its worth saying its worth saying! I said something similar as Crewe & Nantwich was still counting after Montgomery had declared in 2010! Plus they managed to lose several dozen votes between verification and declaration. I believe that in 2015 the declaration was at something ridiculous like 6 or 7 in the morning. Believe it or not in 2010 they used school/ college students. At the most recent count I attended (Referendum? PCC?) they sent all the counters for a tea break at the same time which meant that the 20" tea break became 45"+ due to the huge queue at the sole serving point. |
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