Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2017 7:17:37 GMT
Farmers only have one vote each mate But less put of by bad weather and more organised...? All these bloody people, if it wasn't for them we could have purity in our socialism. |
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Post by iainbhx on Feb 24, 2017 7:50:29 GMT
I await the excuses with morbid curiosity. I'm expecting "hostile media" (which will ignore the News & Star), "countryside" (which will ignore it being a long-time Labour seat) and "weather" (which will ignore the weather being the same for every voter). Of course, the weather yesterday in Copeland was just what the locals would call a "big coat" day. |
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right
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Post by right on Feb 24, 2017 7:52:00 GMT
I await the excuses with morbid curiosity. I'm expecting "hostile media" (which will ignore the News & Star), "countryside" (which will ignore it being a long-time Labour seat) and "weather" (which will ignore the weather being the same for every voter). I wonder which Labour figure will get closest to blaming the voters. |
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baloo
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Post by baloo on Feb 24, 2017 7:54:45 GMT
Just heard the shadow chancellor on the radio. Apparently Labour failed to "break through" in Copeland because of "exceptional circumstances".
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2017 8:08:07 GMT
Great result for Conservatives in both seats, Labour can have some comfort they won Stoke, but to lose a seat you have held since 1935 to a mid term Conservative government when in opposition gives no hope on Corbyn's chances for winning 2020.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 24, 2017 8:10:50 GMT
Just heard the shadow chancellor on the radio. Apparently Labour failed to "break through" in Copeland because of "exceptional circumstances". It's a shame nobody said "you didn't have a breakthrough because your party has held the seat for the past 82 years". |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 24, 2017 8:16:12 GMT
Great result for Conservatives in both seats, Labour can have some comfort they won Stoke, but to lose a seat you have held since 1935 to a mid term Conservative government when in opposition gives no hope on Corbyn's chances for winning 2020. The juvenile nature of Corbyn's response to losing Copeland says a lot. "The failed political consensus"- the party that you label the Establishment beat you and the challenger parties, one of whom has recently been in government, were not close. The only breakers of political consensus were the voters of Copeland, and the consensus they broke was that their seat should be a Labour one. "The Establishment"- it's your bloody seat, man! I feel sorry for our colleagues on the Red Team who are stuck with this overgrown sixth-former and his inability to see the beam in his own eye. |
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right
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Post by right on Feb 24, 2017 8:20:43 GMT
Great result for Conservatives in both seats, Labour can have some comfort they won Stoke, but to lose a seat you have held since 1935 to a mid term Conservative government when in opposition gives no hope on Corbyn's chances for winning 2020. The juvenile nature of Corbyn's response to losing Copeland says a lot. "The failed political consensus"- the party that you label the Establishment beat you and the challenger parties, one of whom has recently been in government, were not close. The only breakers of political consensus were the voters of Copeland, and the consensus they broke was that their seat should be a Labour one. "The Establishment"- it's your bloody seat, man! I feel sorry for our colleagues on the Red Team who are stuck with this overgrown sixth-former and his inability to see the beam in his own eye. I suspect Corbyn does know, but he's the only chance to steer the party to the left. John McDonnell saying "No one votes for a divided party" and saying Mandleson and Blair loused it up in the week leading. Got a point. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2017 8:21:58 GMT
So whats the largest Labour seat by area now?
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2017 8:23:18 GMT
I await the excuses with morbid curiosity. I'm expecting "hostile media" (which will ignore the News & Star), "countryside" (which will ignore it being a long-time Labour seat) and "weather" ( which will ignore the weather being the same for every voter). "Burberry" versus "Pak a Mak" |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2017 8:25:17 GMT
Could 2020 deliver a 1997 result for the Conservatives if Corbyn remains leader?
If Ruth can deliver a dozen or so seats in Scotland, pick up places like Exeter and Bristol East in the South and other Northern Suburban Labour seats go blue we could be on the 380 - 400 Mark.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2017 8:28:41 GMT
Who is going to be the hard left's scapegoat???
I think they'll probably go for the Blairites working in combination with the Jews, backed up by the establishment.
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Post by westmercian on Feb 24, 2017 8:38:23 GMT
Could 2020 deliver a 1997 result for the Conservatives if Corbyn remains leader? If Ruth can deliver a dozen or so seats in Scotland, pick up places like Exeter and Bristol East in the South and other Northern Suburban Labour seats go blue we could be on the 380 - 400 Mark. I think the Lib Dems will take a handful (around 5 or so) of seats from the Tories, unless the matter of Brexit is no longer such an issue in 2020. That might offset some of the gains elsewhere, but I would imagine that the Tories are heading for a healthy majority even if Corbyn is no longer Labour leader, especially if the boundary changes are made. The big issue in 2020 might well be the economy - not necessarily due to Brexit but wider, global economic problems by then (and Brexit no doubt will be somehow to blame by the hardcore Remainers). |
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Post by akmd on Feb 24, 2017 8:39:28 GMT
Very poor night for Labour. Lost a seat that they held for over 80 years and saw another long-term seat become marginal. Based on this, I think they are at risk of losing seats such as Barrow, Stoke South, Newcastle under Lyme, Wakefield and Darlington at the next GE or at least the successors to those constituencies. One thing has become clear though. UKIP are pretty much done. I can't see where they go from here.
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Post by greatkingrat on Feb 24, 2017 8:40:01 GMT
So whats the largest Labour seat by area now? Bishop Auckland I think? |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2017 8:40:23 GMT
Who is going to be the hard left's scapegoat??? I think they'll probably go for the Blairites working in combination with the Jews. 'Corbyn allies blame disunity for Labour's historic defeat' - The Guardian |
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Post by akmd on Feb 24, 2017 8:44:06 GMT
Could 2020 deliver a 1997 result for the Conservatives if Corbyn remains leader? If Ruth can deliver a dozen or so seats in Scotland, pick up places like Exeter and Bristol East in the South and other Northern Suburban Labour seats go blue we could be on the 380 - 400 Mark. Can't see Exeter going Tory. Ben Bradshaw is a good incumbent and his majority is large enough to withstand even the sort of swing we saw in Copeland last night. Exeter was also quite strongly Remain and has the sort of electorate that is unlikely to move to the Tories in mass numbers. Bristol East is more plausible but still unlikely IMO. |
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Post by mrpastelito on Feb 24, 2017 8:46:00 GMT
Not sure but saying mark my words x won't happen is fairly indicative that you don't like what ever x is. No, it's fairly indicative of what I'm thinking, and that has nothing to do with what I would like to happen. Consider the following example to illustrate the difference: "I'd like Fillon to win in France, but mark my words, MLP will be elected President." So maybe it's just you who can't keep mind and emotions apart - please don't project that on me. |
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Post by mrpastelito on Feb 24, 2017 8:47:30 GMT
Could 2020 deliver a 1997 result for the Conservatives if Corbyn remains leader? If Ruth can deliver a dozen or so seats in Scotland, pick up places like Exeter and Bristol East in the South and other Northern Suburban Labour seats go blue we could be on the 380 - 400 Mark. Can't see Exeter going Tory. Ben Bradshaw is a good incumbent and his majority is large enough to withstand even the sort of swing we saw in Copeland last night. Exeter was also quite strongly Remain and has the sort of electorate that is unlikely to move to the stories in mass numbers. Bristol East is more plausible but still unlikely IMO. Spot on about Exeter. |
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Post by mrpastelito on Feb 24, 2017 9:09:36 GMT
Very poor night for Labour. Lost a seat that they held for over 80 years and saw another long-term seat become marginal. Based on this, I think they are at risk of losing seats such as Barrow, Stoke South, Newcastle under Lyme, Wakefield and Darlington at the next GE or at least the successors to those constituencies. One thing has become clear though. UKIP are pretty much done. I can't see where they go from here. Both the LDs' and (even more so) UKIP's success hinge on the Brexit negotiations outcome. Hard Brexit: UKIP are finished, but the Tories lose their majority to Labour and the LDs. They only need to lose 20 seats after all. Soft Brexit: Tories leak votes to UKIP, enough to lose seats to them (Thanet, Thurrock), to the LDs (in the South West), and to Labour (a number of key marginals). Again, the current Conservative majority is a slim one. I suppose that at the next GE, the LDs will fight 20 by-election campaigns, and UKIP will try to do the same - but their fate isn't in their own hands, or only to a very limited extent. |
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