right
Conservative
Posts: 18,777
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Post by right on Feb 24, 2017 0:36:17 GMT
The weather in Stoke today was much worse than it was in Copeland. Yeah, but the polling stations are local whereas they're more than a mile in a lot of Copeland. They're more than a mile away in the rural parts, not in the urban parts. Differential turnout could help Labour here. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2017 0:39:14 GMT
Tom Watson has tweeted "whatever the result" 3 hours ago so not necessarily based on up to date info. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 24, 2017 0:39:30 GMT
But don't forget that Sellafield middle managers and the like are as critical to the Tory vote here as farmers.
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,777
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Post by right on Feb 24, 2017 0:42:45 GMT
But don't forget that Sellafield middle managers and the like are as critical to the Tory vote here as farmers. But the Labour vote is overwhelmingly town based while the Tories need the country vote to turn out. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 24, 2017 0:44:47 GMT
I gather that there are such things as 4x4s and I understand that rural Tory voters often own them.
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 24, 2017 0:45:57 GMT
Anyone know what 51.35% is in terms of actual numbers of votes?
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,777
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Post by right on Feb 24, 2017 0:46:57 GMT
I gather that there are such things as 4x4s and I understand that rural Tory voters often own them. Differential. Differential. |
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Feb 24, 2017 0:47:51 GMT
Yeah, but the polling stations are local whereas they're more than a mile in a lot of Copeland. They're more than a mile away in the rural parts, not in the urban parts. Differential turnout could help Labour here. You're missing my point. DB was trying to imply that worse weather in Stoke meant lower turnout. I was attempting to show that that isn't a factor when polling stations are close by. A mile was a random figure. |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,777
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Post by right on Feb 24, 2017 0:50:42 GMT
They're more than a mile away in the rural parts, not in the urban parts. Differential turnout could help Labour here. You're missing my point. DB was trying to imply that worse weather in Stoke meant lower turnout. I was attempting to show that that isn't a factor when polling stations are close by. A mile was a random figure. I got the point but was moving on to a different point that I hadn't considered before. The decent turnout figure may be covering for a rather high turnout in the urban areas (for both parties) and a lower turnout in the rural areas. |
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Feb 24, 2017 0:51:38 GMT
But don't forget that Sellafield middle managers and the like are as critical to the Tory vote here as farmers. They aren't. This is the one instance, ever, where I'm utterly sure that I've got a demographic figure correct over you. They really really aren't. In this case, you're mistaking volume and influence. |
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Feb 24, 2017 0:52:43 GMT
You're missing my point. DB was trying to imply that worse weather in Stoke meant lower turnout. I was attempting to show that that isn't a factor when polling stations are close by. A mile was a random figure. I got the point but was moving on to a different point that I hadn't considered before. The decent turnout figure may be covering for a rather high turnout in the urban areas (for both parties) and a lower turnout in the rural areas. In this case it apparently isn't. I've friends at the count. Who say Labour has edged it  |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,777
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Post by right on Feb 24, 2017 0:56:03 GMT
I got the point but was moving on to a different point that I hadn't considered before. The decent turnout figure may be covering for a rather high turnout in the urban areas (for both parties) and a lower turnout in the rural areas. In this case it apparently isn't. I've friends at the count. Who say Labour has edged it Time for bed then. Damn Labour and their succesful expectation management. |
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Feb 24, 2017 0:57:11 GMT
In this case it apparently isn't. I've friends at the count. Who say Labour has edged it Time for bed then. Damn Labour and their succesful expectation management. Yep, that's a good bet died. And I've not even covered myself |
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Feb 24, 2017 0:59:29 GMT
Well, I don't think I'll be staying up for either of the counts, whenever they may declare. It's quite possible that I'll wake up to disappointment, and it wouldn't be the first time, or the last for that matter...
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Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279 
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Post by Izzyeviel on Feb 24, 2017 1:02:16 GMT
On the bright side, if Labour defend both, the Corbyn farce continues  |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
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Post by iain on Feb 24, 2017 1:07:28 GMT
According to Michael Thrasher the Lib Dems have doubled their vote in Copeland. Share or number? |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2017 1:08:48 GMT
According to Michael Thrasher the Lib Dems have doubled their vote in Copeland. Share or number? So have they topped the poll in Keswick and got 7%+ in Copeland? |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Feb 24, 2017 1:12:56 GMT
198 and 53 electors respectively. |
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Post by mrhell on Feb 24, 2017 1:13:35 GMT
According to Michael Thrasher the Lib Dems have doubled their vote in Copeland. That would be a very good result as it's not been a seat with any vote for us even with the Alliance. |
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Post by andrew111 on Feb 24, 2017 1:19:34 GMT
198 and 53 electors respectively. Newlands brings back memories of several childhood holidays we spent in a guest house in Stair! I expect most of the residents very sensibly have postal votes! |
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