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Post by Merseymike on Mar 3, 2017 17:01:12 GMT
Local issues can't have helped in Kersal but let's be absolutely clear about one thing: this is ward that Labour can only win if it polls well in Broughton Park. Maybe there were candidate issues (after all it was held last May) or something as well who knows, but there's no way that deep unhappiness with the national leadership did not contribute. As somebody who supports a certain football club and belongs to a forum mainly frequented by their supporters, I can confirm the stadium redevelopment plans *were* a highly significant issue here. The local tenants association have effectively declared war on the Labour council over it (the Indy candidate was from them) That sort of thing has often not worked out well for locally dominant parties before, even when they are doing less awfully nationally than Labour currently are. Yes. Spoke to a friend who lives in the neighbouring ward. The council bludgeoned the stadium proposal through and local people are livid. Hence the independent candidate. |
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 3, 2017 17:03:57 GMT
Conservative GAIN Kersal (Salford) from Labour. Labour lost the Jewish vote? I don't think we have a great deal of it anyway. It's much more the loss of voters to the independent on the football stadium issue |
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Post by thirdchill on Mar 3, 2017 17:40:11 GMT
As somebody who supports a certain football club and belongs to a forum mainly frequented by their supporters, I can confirm the stadium redevelopment plans *were* a highly significant issue here. The local tenants association have effectively declared war on the Labour council over it (the Indy candidate was from them) That sort of thing has often not worked out well for locally dominant parties before, even when they are doing less awfully nationally than Labour currently are. Yes. Spoke to a friend who lives in the neighbouring ward. The council bludgeoned the stadium proposal through and local people are livid. Hence the independent candidate. That certainly played a factor in Kersal Moor and like has been mentioned above they got a big vote in Kersal Moor where this issue is most potent, but was fairly insignificant in the rest of the ward. If it had been more significant in the rest of the ward, the independent candidate would have won. Going beyond this, there are certainly other factors. Corbyn is a factor, yes, but is not the whole factor. Peter O'Connor won Kersal for labour last year with a reasonable (although reduced) majority. There has been a reduction in the majorities in Kersal in the last couple of years after some very strong performances for labour in preceding years, particularly in 2012. Personally, I don't think they selected the right candidate and was surprised when I saw who it was. Their candidate lives in swinton and has stood in previous elections in Boothstown & Ellenbrook, which is at the opposite end of the salford borough. He is certainly partisan and left wing, but I don't think those things hindered him as much as not being local. Am sure labour could have selected a better candidate for the ward, they have a large and reasonably active membership. The candidate wasn't an appalling candidate by any means but they could have done better. Whereas in Arnold Saunders, we certainly did have a strong candidate, and our local party did fight the local campaign very hard and it was well organised. That certainly helped us keep our vote up and ensure good turnout from those intending to vote conservative. It particularly helped in Broughton Park. |
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Post by thirdchill on Mar 3, 2017 17:46:35 GMT
On a partisan note, however, I was very pleased at the result as at the last local council meeting when it was budget day, a load of labour councillors laughed when we suggested we were going to win Kersal. The thought of the smiles being wiped off those faces by this turn of events is quite satisfying.
Labour did campaign, they were not complacent and never have been. However the salford labour party does suffer from arrogance. It's not unique to salford labour and it's not unique to labour but it does get people's backs up. The stadium issue is an example of this, and this could have been avoided by them if they had been a bit more receptive to criticism of the plans.
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Post by thirdchill on Mar 3, 2017 17:54:00 GMT
I was wondering why so many in the prediction competition thought a 'community leader' would get only 2% as an independent, even if he was against Salford City football club's redevelopment ... There was a by-election in westminster (Bryanston and Dorset Square) where a similar thing occurred on a single issue, and only David Boothroyd (who obviously had good knowledge of the local area) predicted that 'Baker Street: No Two Ways' would come second. Local factors can easily catch people out if you don't know the area. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Mar 3, 2017 18:01:50 GMT
Well, I'm not local, but I did do some research on Jonny Wineberg, which helped me get his share right, at least.
I have, however, seen a match at Salford City's Moor Lane ground, and even by non-league (then 7th tier, they're now sixth) standards, it did seem to need some redevelopment.They have considerable ambitions, too.
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 3, 2017 18:02:29 GMT
Yes. Spoke to a friend who lives in the neighbouring ward. The council bludgeoned the stadium proposal through and local people are livid. Hence the independent candidate. That certainly played a factor in Kersal Moor and like has been mentioned above they got a big vote in Kersal Moor where this issue is most potent, but was fairly insignificant in the rest of the ward. If it had been more significant in the rest of the ward, the independent candidate would have won. Going beyond this, there are certainly other factors. Corbyn is a factor, yes, but is not the whole factor. Peter O'Connor won Kersal for labour last year with a reasonable (although reduced) majority. There has been a reduction in the majorities in Kersal in the last couple of years after some very strong performances for labour in preceding years, particularly in 2012. Personally, I don't think they selected the right candidate and was surprised when I saw who it was. Their candidate lives in swinton and has stood in previous elections in Boothstown & Ellenbrook, which is at the opposite end of the salford borough. He is certainly partisan and left wing, but I don't think those things hindered him as much as not being local. Am sure labour could have selected a better candidate for the ward, they have a large and reasonably active membership. The candidate wasn't an appalling candidate by any means but they could have done better. Whereas in Arnold Saunders, we certainly did have a strong candidate, and our local party did fight the local campaign very hard and it was well organised. That certainly helped us keep our vote up and ensure good turnout from those intending to vote conservative. It particularly helped in Broughton Park. I don't disagree with any of that particularly not having a local candidate but the area affected is heavily Labour and could well have turned out given the vote for the independent. I think we shot ourselves in the foot. |
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 3, 2017 18:03:44 GMT
Well, I'm not local, but I did do some research on Jonny Wineberg, which helped me get his share right, at least. I have, however, seen a match at Salford City's Moor Lane ground, and even by non-league (then 7th tier, they're now sixth) standards, it did seem to need some redevelopment.They have considerable ambitions, too. The complaints are largely concerning the effect on local parking given the stadium would need to be used more to be financially viable |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 3, 2017 18:16:51 GMT
As somebody who supports a certain football club and belongs to a forum mainly frequented by their supporters, I can confirm the stadium redevelopment plans *were* a highly significant issue here. The local tenants association have effectively declared war on the Labour council over it (the Indy candidate was from them) That sort of thing has often not worked out well for locally dominant parties before, even when they are doing less awfully nationally than Labour currently are. This has been discussed already and... You're wrong about Kersal Moor which is usually the most reliably Conservative part of the ward. The independent candidate won that box handily this time, taking votes from both main parties - but he did poorly on the postal votes and didn't pick up any traction in the rest of the ward. Labour won Lower Kersal comfortably but their vote completely tanked in Broughton Park. Now of course linders is very partisan but I really don't see why he'd lie about patterns observed at the count particularly as there's no obvious motivation for doing so. |
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Post by linders on Mar 3, 2017 18:37:52 GMT
I can see why some in Labour have taken comfort in the notion that the independent cost them the election but it's just not true.
For one thing, it is only a big issue in about a quarter of the ward.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 3, 2017 18:43:59 GMT
It clearly didn't help, and probably helped create a "mood music" not favourable to Labour more generally.
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 3, 2017 18:46:36 GMT
I mean it's entirely possible that irritation with the Labour council fed into irritation with national Labour leadership and vice versa creating a toxic mess. Would not be the first time.
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Post by andrew111 on Mar 3, 2017 18:56:11 GMT
The Newcomen election is a further indication that the lack of progress for UKIP is mainly down to the national problems the party is having. The election material used in Newcomen was professional, canvassing done, and postal voters hit too. In fact, the campaign used in Newcomen was almost the same campaign used in Hartlepool to gain seats in 2016. As I recall you were only fighting Labour in Hartepool and not trying to break through from third place in a ward that has been a LD/Lab contest for decades? |
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Post by andrew111 on Mar 3, 2017 19:07:27 GMT
If (even) you think Harrow is safe, the only possible Tory gain from Labour is in Broxbourne (and that ward has proved stubbornly Labour in the past, despite overwhelming Tory dominance on that council generally in recent years) The ward in Derby voted UKIP in 2014, Labour in 2015 and Tory last year - its the UKIP seat up. As I said, technically UKIP. I assume that is the seat you thought Labour would gain in normal circumstances? |
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Post by Chris Cassidy on Mar 3, 2017 20:51:21 GMT
Yes, in Hartlepool we're only up against Labour in most of the wards. Regarding the material we used, it was altered to reflect this difference and produced to a high standard compared to a lot of UKIP stuff floating around.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 4, 2017 6:53:30 GMT
Well, I'm not local, but I did do some research on Jonny Wineberg, which helped me get his share right, at least. I have, however, seen a match at Salford City's Moor Lane ground, and even by non-league (then 7th tier, they're now sixth) standards, it did seem to need some redevelopment.They have considerable ambitions, too. Moor Lane is very old and predates Salford City, in fact. It was the original home of Manchester Rugby Club until they moved. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 4, 2017 7:07:06 GMT
I wonder if Rebecca Long-Bailey should have been spending more time in Kersal than on the world's least subtle marketing drive.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Mar 4, 2017 8:37:16 GMT
I wonder if Rebecca Long-Bailey should have been spending more time in Kersal than on the world's least subtle marketing drive. Marketing doesn't have to be subtle to work, you know. |
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right
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Post by right on Mar 4, 2017 8:38:01 GMT
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Mar 4, 2017 8:48:06 GMT
Well, bin collections is exactly the kind of things that makes people VERY upset. Garbage stinks in summer. |
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