The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,979
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 3, 2017 11:56:19 GMT
It is said the Labour candidate in Kersal ward was an ultra-Corbynite. The result begins to look not just explicable but inevitable. I don't really want to ask this but - were they Jewish? If not, that may explain more than their particular position on Labour's spectrum. Plus I'm not sure if Gary Neville is a Corbyn admirer or not, but it seems he cost us at least as many votes here as our leader. |
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Post by andrew111 on Mar 3, 2017 11:57:12 GMT
Excellent result for Conservatives. However - am I right that this is the first time this year that they have gained a ward from anyone? But have lost SIX? (four to LD, one each to Labour and Ratepayers). I'm delighted with the result in Kersal. But it has to be admitted that this is a highly atypical ward. I think the Tories will be very happy to gain one seat and hold two others with increased vote shares - much better local results than last week when perhaps the phone banks were busy in Copeland.. Labour on the other hand would have trouble holding onto a bag of chips at the moment.... at least if anyone other than UKIP was actively trying to take it off them! |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 3, 2017 11:58:08 GMT
It is said the Labour candidate in Kersal ward was an ultra-Corbynite. The result begins to look not just explicable but inevitable. I don't really want to ask this but - were they Jewish? If not, that may explain more than their particular position on Labour's spectrum. Don't know, but could be. In any respect his tweets show he is not a big fan of universities holding "Israeli Apartheid Week" - so not a typical Corbynite in that sense. |
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Post by andrew111 on Mar 3, 2017 11:59:37 GMT
It is said the Labour candidate in Kersal ward was an ultra-Corbynite. The result begins to look not just explicable but inevitable. I don't really want to ask this but - were they Jewish? If not, that may explain more than their particular position on Labour's spectrum. Plus I'm not sure if Gary Neville is a Corbyn admirer or not, but it seems he cost us at least as many votes here as our leader. Well, I guess Corbyn occupies a particular and well publicised point on the Zionist-Palestinian spectrum, independent of where he is on Left vs Right in the Labour Party |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,979
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 3, 2017 11:59:51 GMT
I'm delighted with the result in Kersal. But it has to be admitted that this is a highly atypical ward. I think the Tories will be very happy to gain one seat and hold two others with increased vote shares - much better local results than last week when perhaps the phone banks were busy in Copeland.. Labour on the other hand would have trouble holding onto a bag of chips at the moment.... at least if anyone other than UKIP was actively trying to take it off them! Well, we have two defences next week plus one seat that would - in normal circumstances - be very winnable for us. A week is a long time in politics...... |
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Post by andrew111 on Mar 3, 2017 12:04:08 GMT
I don't really want to ask this but - were they Jewish? If not, that may explain more than their particular position on Labour's spectrum. Don't know, but could be. In any respect his tweets show he is not a big fan of universities holding "Israeli Apartheid Week" - so not a typical Corbynite in that sense. Well, it shows he has at least a basic instinct for self-preservation.... Strangely enough that is not a normal topic on the doorstep in most by-elections... |
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Post by andrew111 on Mar 3, 2017 12:08:24 GMT
I think the Tories will be very happy to gain one seat and hold two others with increased vote shares - much better local results than last week when perhaps the phone banks were busy in Copeland.. Labour on the other hand would have trouble holding onto a bag of chips at the moment.... at least if anyone other than UKIP was actively trying to take it off them! Well, we have two defences next week plus one seat that would - in normal circumstances - be very winnable for us. A week is a long time in politics...... I think you will hold on easily enough in Harrow, but the way the Tories are squeezing UKIP votes at the moment and Labour vote shares are going down I would not rate Labour chances in the other two.. |
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 3, 2017 12:16:54 GMT
Lots of local issues in all this week's by elections, but overall Tories do at last start to show results which seem to accord with national opinion polls. Could this be in part a post-Copeland factor? Electors believing in results on the ground as against unreliable polling? If so the effect may soon fade.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,979
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 3, 2017 12:19:52 GMT
They also had a very good run of results in November, which didn't last. Likely just a blip (and Kersal really isn't just about national factors)
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Post by gwynthegriff on Mar 3, 2017 12:42:49 GMT
One result out of four, so the night is yet young.  |
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Post by andrew111 on Mar 3, 2017 12:46:33 GMT
I think the Tories could easily make a couple of gains next week at the expense of Labour (or is it UKIP in one case?) while losing a couple (West Oxfordshire, in the Witney constituency, and Rutland) to the Lib Dems
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,979
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 3, 2017 12:50:58 GMT
If (even) you think Harrow is safe, the only possible Tory gain from Labour is in Broxbourne (and that ward has proved stubbornly Labour in the past, despite overwhelming Tory dominance on that council generally in recent years) The ward in Derby voted UKIP in 2014, Labour in 2015 and Tory last year - its the UKIP seat up.
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 3, 2017 13:00:20 GMT
One result out of four, so the night is yet young. worse.  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 3, 2017 13:00:52 GMT
It's a rather inelastic electorate in Waltham Cross. The Tory vote is much like it is in the rest of Cheshunt whereas the Labour vote is increasingly like that in Enfield. Close enough though that it could easily flip on differntial turnout
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Post by La Fontaine on Mar 3, 2017 13:27:28 GMT
I don't really want to ask this but - were they Jewish? If not, that may explain more than their particular position on Labour's spectrum. Plus I'm not sure if Gary Neville is a Corbyn admirer or not, but it seems he cost us at least as many votes here as our leader. Well, I guess Corbyn occupies a particular and well publicised point on the Zionist-Palestinian spectrum, independent of where he is on Left vs Right in the Labour Party I don't agree. Corbyn's position on Israel is an intrinsic part of his far left world view. I doubt if any of his younger potential successors actually subscribe to this which is why when he's gone things will improve, whoever his successor is. It's also why he is so reluctant to go. |
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Post by Chris Cassidy on Mar 3, 2017 13:35:34 GMT
The Newcomen election is a further indication that the lack of progress for UKIP is mainly down to the national problems the party is having.
The election material used in Newcomen was professional, canvassing done, and postal voters hit too. In fact, the campaign used in Newcomen was almost the same campaign used in Hartlepool to gain seats in 2016.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,038
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 3, 2017 15:20:53 GMT
Local issues can't have helped in Kersal but let's be absolutely clear about one thing: this is ward that Labour can only win if it polls well in Broughton Park. Maybe there were candidate issues (after all it was held last May) or something as well who knows, but there's no way that deep unhappiness with the national leadership did not contribute.
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 3, 2017 16:02:31 GMT
Christchurch, Mudeford & Friars Cliff - Conservative hold
| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | 2011 result | | Conservative | 629 | 46.8% | -9.0% | -7.2% | 3 Unopposed | Independent | 466 | 34.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere |
| Labour | 91 | 6.8% | -9.6% | -9.9% |
| UKIP | 85 | 6.3% | -21.4% | -23.0% |
| Green | 72 | 5.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere |
| Total votes | 1,343 |
| 39% | 42% |
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Swing not meaningful
Council now 21 Conservative, 2 Independent, 1 UKIP
Redcar & Cleveland, Hutton - Conservative hold
| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2016 B | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 860 | 57.4% | +12.4% | +3.6% | +2.9% | +8.2% | +6.5% | Liberal Democrat
| 326 | 21.8% | -5.7% | +4.4% | +3.5% | +0.6% | -1.3% | Labour | 183 | 12.8% | -6.6% | -16.6% | -15.0% | -17.4% | -13.8% | UKIP | 129 | 8.6% | +2.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent |
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| -2.9% |
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| Total votes | 1,498 |
| 77% | 40% | 43% | 47% | 51% |
Swing Liberal Democrat to Conservative ~9% since 2016 by-election and Labour to Conservative ~ 10% / 9% since 2015 and ~ 12¾% / 10¼% since 2011
Council now 28 Labour, 11 Liberal Democrat, 10 Independents, 9 Conservative, 1 UKIP
Redcar & Cleveland, Newcomen - Liberal Democrat hold
| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2012 B | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Liberal Democrat | 426 | 44.6% | +4.9% | +7.5% | +0.6% | -14.4% | -14.8% | Labour | 259 | 27.1% | -6.7% | -6.9% | -21.9% | -6.3% | -5.6% | UKIP | 153 | 16.0% | -2.4% | -4.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent Hannon | 52 | 5.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent Stones | 36 | 3.8% | -4.3% | -5.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 29 | 3.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -3.9% | -4.5% | -4.8% | Total votes | 955 |
| 44% | 48% | 86% | 72% | 75% |
Swing Labour to Liberal Democrat ~ 5¾% / 7¼% since 2015 and 11¼% since 2012 by-election but Liberal Democrat to Labour ~ 4% / 4½% since 2011
Council now 28 Labour, 11 Liberal Democrat, 10 Independents, 9 Conservative, 1 UKIP
Salford, Kersal - Conservative gain from Labour
| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | | Conservative | 850 | 42.0% | +5.6% | -1.4% | +24.2% | +17.6% | Labour | 553 | 27.3% | -19.8% | -21.5% | -27.4% | -40.2% | Independent | 354 | 17.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 182 | 9.0% | -2.0% | from nowhere | -18.6% | from nowhere | Green | 48 | 2.4% | -2.0% | -3.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 39 | 1.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | -6.2% | TUSC |
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| -1.2% | -2.1% |
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| Total votes | 2,026 |
| 78% | 47% | 71% | 90% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~ 11½% since 2016, ~ 10% since 2015, ~ 25¾% since 2014 and ~ 29% since 2012 - new Councillor was Conservative candidate in 2015 & 2016 Council now 50 Labour plus elected Mayor, 9 Conservative, 1 Independent
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,979
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 3, 2017 16:10:00 GMT
Local issues can't have helped in Kersal but let's be absolutely clear about one thing: this is ward that Labour can only win if it polls well in Broughton Park. Maybe there were candidate issues (after all it was held last May) or something as well who knows, but there's no way that deep unhappiness with the national leadership did not contribute. As somebody who supports a certain football club and belongs to a forum mainly frequented by their supporters, I can confirm the stadium redevelopment plans *were* a highly significant issue here. The local tenants association have effectively declared war on the Labour council over it (the Indy candidate was from them) That sort of thing has often not worked out well for locally dominant parties before, even when they are doing less awfully nationally than Labour currently are. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Mar 3, 2017 16:24:23 GMT
The Newcomen election is a further indication that the lack of progress for UKIP is mainly down to the national problems the party is having. The election material used in Newcomen was professional, canvassing done, and postal voters hit too. In fact, the campaign used in Newcomen was almost the same campaign used in Hartlepool to gain seats in 2016. I know the electorate can be frustrating but, in my experience, hitting them is rarely a good idea. |
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